Ted Lilly: Flawed But Useful?

By Eno Sarris //

The story on Ted Lilly has been fairly consistent over his career: fly-ball control-type pitcher with a great curveball, a decent slider, and a placeholder fastball. That sort of pitcher often is flawed but useful. Usually pitchers like Lilly will have poor home-run rates, but while they keep baserunners to a minimum, they can also usually be helpful at the back end of a fantasy rotation. Vanilla ice cream has its’ place.

But with Ted Lilly in his 35th year on this planet, it’s fair to ask when this run of usefullnes will end. Right now, he’s showing the worst strikeout rate (5.89 K/) and fastball velocity (86.4 MPH) of his career. Even paired with a great home park as he is – Dodger Stadium can help some of his flyballs die on the warning track – no WHIP is low enough to play a pitcher with a mid-fours ERA.

The bad news first. Lilly is not likely to recover his career strikeout rate (7.67 K/9). His swinging strike rate has steadily been dropping along with his fastball velocity, down from double digits earlier in his career to 7.9% this year. Since 8.5% is average in that category, he’s now getting whiffs on fewer of his offerings than the average pitcher. And while this is a small sample, swinging strike rate is a per-pitch metric. That means it’s much closer to reliable than metrics that are based on the outcome of a single plate appearance.

Then comes the worse news. If he’s not getting whiffs on those curveballs and sliders like he used to, then those pitches will be put in play. If those balls are being put in play, they are most likely going to be fly balls given his historical fly ball rate (34%, and 44% is average across the league). And, going back to beginning of last year, the Dodgers have the worst outfield defense in the major leagues. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and the cobbled-together left field group in Los Angeles have put together a -12.4 UZR/150 (a zone-based defensive metric), and even the second-worst Braves outfield is significantly better (-8.2 UZR/150).

We can’t look to his batting average on balls in play for much regression, then. Currently sitting at .326, it should move some, but BABIP is related to defense as well. The Dodgers are only turning 70.2% of their balls in play into outs, fourth-worst in the major leagues. We can’t expect Lilly’s BABIP to move towards his .273 career BABIP if his outfield is the worst in the majors and his entire defense is fourth-worst.

Lilly is still showing his trademarked control. Since he’s moved to the National League, even his worst walk rate has been significantly better than the national average (2.81 BB/9 in 2008, average is usually around 3.4). That 2.3 BB/9 since moving to the weaker league has helped him put up a 1.14 WHIP.

But as his fastball gets slower, and his offspeed pitches get fewer whiffs, his margin of error decreases. Once those balls are put into play, we know the defense behind him won’t help him much. Even spot-starting Ted Lilly at home is becoming an increasingly risky decision. Certainly avoid him on the road for now and don’t consider him much of a buy-low.

For access to the top fantasy baseball analytics visit BloombergSports.com.

(Vid) Behind the Numbers: Concussions, Umpiring & Evan Longoria

Umpires, Concussions & Evan Longoria

Hosts: Robert Shaw and Wayne Parillo

Behind the Numbers is a series of conversations and discussions with blog, sabermetric, and fantasy experts.

Watch the entire episode, or use the links below to jump to the exact point you want:

Guest: Jeff W Zimmerman

Writer Fangraphs.com and Royalsreview.com. Follow him at @jeffwzimmerman

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Top 5 Fantasy Pitchers of the Week: Wilson, Gorzelanny, Price, Hudson, and Garcia

1) Brian Wilson

2 wins, 3 saves, 7 K’s, 5 IP, 0 R (9 Straight shutout apps)

2) Tom Gorzelanny

2 wins, 15 IP, 10 K’s, 1.20 ERA(2.87 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

3) Jaime Garcia

1 win, 9 IP, 8 K’s, 0 R, 0.33 WHIP (4-0, 1.99 ERA)

4) David Price

1 win, 8.2 IP, 10 K’s, 0 R, 0.46 WHIP (3.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

5) Tim Hudson

1 win, 9 IP, 6 K’s, 0 R, 0.22 WHIP (2.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)

As far as the historic performances, have some more confidence in Francisco Liriano and Yovani Gallardo, they are good pitchers off to bad starts.  Justin Verlander is an absolute star and that’s why he was often my top pitcher in fantasy drafts.

Bloomberg Sports Top 5 MLB Hitters of the Week

Top 5 MLB Hitters of the Week 5/2-5/8

1) Gaby Sanchez

13 hits in 28 at bats, 2 HR, 10 RBI (.328 AVG, 5 HR, 21 R)

2) Adrian Gonzalez

3 HR, 9 RBI, .321 AVG (.314 avg, 4 HR, 24 RBI)

3) Jacoby Ellsbury

6 runs, 5 steals, .387 AVG (.295 avg, 23 runs, 10 stl)

4) Erick Aybar

4 runs, 5 RBI, 4 steals, .406 AVG (Batting .356 with 8 Stl)

5) Vernon Wells

7 runs, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1 STL (Batting just .179 this season)

 A View of the Diamond:  Derek Jeter- average of .276, 18 runs, riding a 6 game hit streak, he currently ranks 18th at his position, but he seems to be a streaky option, I would play him now, but he could be a platoon option.  Play him against southpaws, he is batting .333 against them this year, and play him in day games when he bats .326.

Padilla & Melancon Take Turns Closing

Another week means another round of changes at the closer position. The most volatile position in baseball has lived up the reputation this season. Even though we are still in the early stages of May, 39 different relievers have registered multiple saves in 2011. With the injuries to Jonathan Broxton and Brandon Lyon, that number will soon go over 40.

Broxton has been up and down as the Dodgers’ closer for quite some time. After temporarily losing the position last season, he has struggled to keep a firm grip on in thus far. An MRI showed no structural damage to his right elbow; however, revealed bone spurs and some bruising. Broxton will take a few weeks before throwing again which means his return will be longer than the 15 days he is required to miss.

With Hong-Chih Kuo returning from injury and Kenley Jansen continuing to struggle with wildness, the Dodgers will turn to former starter Vicente Padilla in the ninth. Padilla, 33, has started 237 career games and just three saves (2 came back in 2000 season). After starting 23 times for the Dodgers over the past two seasons, he has converted in to a full-time reliever in 2011.
In six appearances, he has allowed just one run and two hits in six innings of work. As a reliever, Padilla is throwing a bit harder, but we’ll see how he handles the conversion with more time. Don Mattingly did not hesitate to give the ball to Padilla, so his job seems safe for the foreseeable future.

The MRI results were not so kind to Houston Astros closer Brandon Lyon. After experiencing some weakness in his arm, an MRI showed Lyon had a partially torn rotator cuff, however, it will not require surgery at this time. Lyon had allowed nine run on 21 hits in just 11.1 innings of work.

In his place, Mark Melancon will handle the closing duties. The former New York Yankee came into 2011 with just 37.2 innings of major league experience. He already has 19 appearances with the Astros and earned his first career save this week.

Melancon throws a fastball in the mid-90s and racks up a lot of groundballs. This is a nice trait to have when you pitch in a home run friendly ballpark. The role is a temporary one right now, but considering Lyon’s struggles and the severity of the injury, Melancon could see an expanded look at the back end of the bullpen.

Both Padilla and Melancon are solid options if your team needs some bullpen help. Padilla pitches for the better team which means more save opportunities. Meanwhile, Melancon has the chance to get a longer look. If you need a quick boost in saves, Padilla is the choice. If you went cheap on closers in your draft and are looking for a long-term option, Melancon has more potential for that.

–Tommy Rancel

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com

(Vid) Behind the Numbers: How to Discuss Sabermetrics Without Alienating People

 

Hosts: Robert Shaw and Wayne Parillo

Behind the Numbers is a series of conversations and discussions with blog, sabermetric, and fantasy experts.

Watch the entire episode, or use the links below to jump to the exact point you want:

Guest: Steve Slowinski

Writer St Petersburg Times, librarian and contributor at Fangraphs.com, Editor-in-Chief DRaysBay, SB Nation Tampa Bay. Follow him at @steveslow

 

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What to Do About Third Base

by Eno Sarris // 

This past week has been a tough one for the third base position. Ryan Zimmerman underwent abdominal surgery and will be out up to another six weeks. Pablo Sandoval will miss at least that much time with a broken hamate bone. David Freese also broke his hand. Scott Rolen is having shoulder issues. Ian Stewart was sent down to the minor leagues. Pedro Alvarez is struggling with the whiff. If you have multiple teams, odds are you are looking for a third baseman in at least one league. We’ll break down some options here, tiered by league depth, so that you can sort through the mess.

Shallow Leagues
It’s hard to know exactly which players are available on your waiver wire, but chances are, if you’re in a ten-teamer, Chase Headley is out there for you. Ideally, you’d like to play him against righties and away from home – so if you can platoon him in this manner, go ahead. As a batter, Headley has made some strides. He’s showing the best walk rate of his career and his power is up from last year. He has a lifetime BABIP of .330, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a little luckier on balls in play despite owning a current .301 BABIP. By the end of the year, Headley should be hitting around .260 with double digit home runs and steals, so he’s a decent stop-gap player. Of course, if you are lucky enough to find Chipper Jones on your waiver, he’s a much better option. But Headley’s no bum. Finally, the best option is probably Jed Lowrie, who made his fifth start (eighth game) at the position on Tuesday night. If he’s available and eligible, he’s your man.

Standard Mixed Leagues
Edwin Encarnacion is doing everything he’s always done in terms of his plate discipline and hit trajectory stats, but the power hasn’t been there. It’s a little much to ask him to recover his power so soon after a wrist injury, but that might be what you are stuck with. If power is your sole goal, you may want to go with Ian Stewart, who is now back in the major leagues. In interviews he has practically demanded that he play every day. If the team allows him that – it’s not like Jose Lopez is a better option (with his 1 OPS+!), and Ty Wigginton is also a flawed player – he could go back to striking out a little less than a third of the time, which would probably result in an Encarnacion-ish .250 batting average with power. If every hit counts, Danny Valencia has had bad luck so far this season and should at least be able to hit .265 or so going forward.

AL- and NL- Only Leagues
In these leagues, you’re mostly just screwed. In my 11-team AL-only, the best waiver option is either Omar Vizquel or Matt Tolbert. I’d take Tolbert, mostly just because he’s playing often because of the current state of the Twins infield. If Andy LaRoche is available in your league, he’s been seeing more time for the Athletics and has been acquitting himself well. On the NL side, Mike Fontenot is getting more playing time at shortstop and, because of his position eligiblity, actually create some trade value for himself by stealing the starting shorstop role in San Francisco while your third baseman is out. That’s how bad Miguel Tejada has been this year. Over with the Reds, Daniel Descalso is probably the man taking over for Freese right now, but watch Allen Craig if he’s available, as he’s the best bat in this paragraph – but he’ll have to build up eligibility at the positon, most likely.

Third base is hurting right now, literally and figuratively. Hopefully some of these free agent options will help you survived until you get your third baseman back.

For more check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2011.

What To Do About Third Base

by Eno Sarris //

This past week has been a tough one for the third base position. Ryan Zimmerman underwent abdominal surgery and will be out up to another six weeks. Pablo Sandoval will miss at least that much time with a broken hamate bone. David Freese also broke his hand. Scott Rolen is having shoulder issues. Ian Stewart was sent down to the minor leagues. Pedro Alvarez
is struggling with the whiff. If you have multiple teams, odds are you
are looking for a third baseman in at least one league. We’ll break down
some options here, tiered by league depth, so that you can sort through
the mess. 

Shallow Leagues
It’s hard to know exactly which players are available on your waiver wire, but chances are, if you’re in a ten-teamer, Chase Headley
is out there for you. Ideally, you’d like to play him against righties
and away from home – so if you can platoon him in this manner, go ahead.
As a batter, Headley has made some strides. He’s showing the best walk
rate of his career and his power is up from last year. He has a lifetime
BABIP of .330, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a little
luckier on balls in play despite owning a current .301 BABIP. By the end
of the year, Headley should be hitting around .260 with double digit
home runs and steals, so he’s a decent stop-gap player. Of course, if
you are lucky enough to find Chipper Jones on your waiver, he’s a much better option. But Headley’s no bum. Finally, the best option is probably Jed Lowrie, who made his eighth start at the position on Tuesday night. If he’s available and eligible, he’s your man. 

Standard Mixed Leagues
Edwin Encarnacion
is doing everything he’s always done in terms of his plate discipline
and hit trajectory stats, but the power hasn’t been there. It’s a little
much to ask him to recover his power so soon after a wrist injury, but
that might be what you are stuck with. If power is your sole goal, you
may want to go with Ian Stewart, who is now back in the
major leagues. In interviews he has practically demanded that he play
every day. If the team allows him that – it’s not like Jose Lopez is a much better option, and Ty Wigginton
is also a flawed player – he could go back to striking out a little
less than a third of the time, which would probably result in an
Encarnacion-ish .250 batting average with power. If every hit counts, Danny Valencia has had bad luck so far this season and should at least be able to hit .265 or so going forward. 

AL- and NL- Only Leagues
In these leagues, you’re mostly just screwed. In my 11-team AL-only, the best waiver option is either Omar Vizquel or Matt Tolbert. I’d take Tolbert, mostly just because he’s playing often because of the current state of the Twins infield. If Andy LaRoche
is available in your league, he’s been seeing more time for the
Athletics and has been acquitting himself well. On the NL side, Mike Fontenot
is getting more playing time at shortstop and, because of his position
eligiblity, actually create some trade value for himself by stealing the
starting shorstop role in San Francisco while your third baseman is
out. That’s how bad Miguel Tejada has been this year. Over with the Reds, Daniel Descalso is probably the man taking over for Freese right now, but watch Allen Craig if he’s available, as he’s the best bat in this paragraph – but he’ll have to build up eligibility at the positon, most likely.

Third base is hurting right now, literally and figuratively.
Hopefully some of these free agent options will help you survived until
you get your third baseman back.

For more check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2011.

Fantasy MLB: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

The Good:

Kurt Suzuki, C, A’s: 2 runs, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .278 AVG

Just 27 years old, Suzuki is one of the few young catchers who will get 500 at bats thanks to durability and high placement in the A’s batting lineup.  He regressed a bit last season, perhaps because of injuries, but this season, he’s been somewhere in between.  He has just two homers and 7 RBI, but his average is a decent .256 plus a stolen base.  He’s been better than Jorge Posada, but his upside is limited. 

Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: 5 runs, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .389 AVG

One of the most underrated power bats in the Majors, Luke Scott blasted 27 home runs last season and it would not surprise me if he reaches 30 this season.  He doesn’t get any steals and his career average is average at best at .268, but he is one of the few players who has increased his power output every single season in the Major Leagues.  This is now his 7th season in the Big Leagues. 

Jack Hannahan, 3B, Indians: 4 runs, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB

This 31-year old journeyman came out of nowhere to blast four home runs through 22 games with 14 runs and 14 RBI.  Warning, he is a career .228 hitter with limited speed.  Enjoy it while it lasts, but I don’t see it lasting all season. 

The Bad:

Nick Swisher, OF, Yankees: .174 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI

With a .218 average and just one home run, there is some disappointment with Swisher.  Truth is that you should have seen this coming.  His batting average per ball in play was out of whack last season, so you should expect him to bat around .250 this year, after all, his career average is .251.  The power should bounce back, but this is not a hitter that offers much in fantasy baseball. 

Carlos Pena, 1B, Cubs: 1/11, 1 run

The Cubs took a gamble and it does not seem to be working.  Pena has yet to go deep and his average has fallen to .167, which is actually just 30 points lower than last season.  He’ll get some homers though it may be a race against time… the Cubs will eventually have to push Pena on the bench if he can’t hit above the Mendoza line. 

Jason Bay, OF, Mets: 3 Runs, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .200 AVG

After a nice return to the Mets that led to a six game winning streak, Bay has gone on to have just one hit in his last 17 at bats.  He is striking out a ton and has just 3 RBI in 10 games.  He should find himself a home on the fantasy waiver wire.