For more check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2011.
Tagged: Scott Rolen
Ballpark Figures: Hall of Fame Predictions Part One
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw discuss players who they think will definitely be inducted into the Hall of Fame and players who are debatable.
Definites
Based on his statistics, Manny Ramirez should be a Hall of Famer. He has 2574 hits, 1831 RBI and 555 home runs in his career. He is a 12-time All-Star and has two World Series rings (’04, ’07) and nine Silver Slugger awards. However, his use of PEDs has tarnished his statistics and will keep him out of the Hall of Fame.
Though Albert Pujols is struggling a bit this season with the Angels, he has already cemented a spot in the Hall of Fame. He has 2,142 hits, 456 home runs and a .325 batting average in his career. He is a three-time MVP (’05, ’08, ’09) and a nine-time All-Star and has won two World Series (’06, ’11), six Silver Slugger awards and two Gold Glove awards.
Like Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki‘s numbers are down this season, but he deserves induction into the Hall of Fame based on his past performances. He has 2,504 hits, 432 stolen bases and a .323 average in his career. The 10-time All-Star also won MVP and Rookie of the Year honors in 2001 and has earned 10 Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers.
Derek Jeter is another player who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. The 12-time All-Star has 3,177 career hits, 344 stolen bases and a .313 career average, as well as five Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. Above all, he is a big-time winner with five World Series rings.
Chipper Jones, set to retire at the end of this year after 19 seasons, is certainly Hall of Fame-bound. He has 2,650 hits, 459 home runs and a .304 average in his career, in addition to an MVP award (’99), seven All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers.
Alex Rodriguez, a 14-time All-Star and three-time MVP, is another player whose Hall of Fame candidacy is in question due to PEDs. However, it can be argued that after the steroid era ended, A-Rod still put up good enough numbers to warrant induction. He has 2,841 career hits and 640 home runs, and is 76 RBI away from 2000 for his career. He has one World Series ring (’09), 10 Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves.
Jim Thome is headed for the Hall of Fame with his 608 career HR. The five-time All-Star has had 12 seasons of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI but he is not just a home-run hitter. He has 1,710 walks, ranking 10th all-time.
Mariano Rivera is another player already in the Hall of Fame. He is the all-time saves leader with 608 and has a 2.21 career ERA, good for 13th all-time. He is the greatest closer of all time and one of the most clutch performers in sports. Despite being 42 years old, Rivera was as good as ever before his season was cut short by a torn ACL.
Questionable
Jamie Moyer sits at 269 wins as he is currently pitching in AAA and trying to make another comeback, this time with the Baltimore Orioles. If he returns shortly and assuming he pitches every fifth day, he could potentially start 19 games and could pick up the six wins he needs to reach 275 for his career. If the 49-year-old can somehow keep pitching into his fifties, he could have a shot at 300 wins and the Hall of Fame.
Johnny Damon‘s easiest path to the Hall of Fame is to get another 254 hits to reach 3,000 for his career. If he gets just 54 more hits and 17 more home runs, he would join Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds and Craig Biggio as the only players to have 2,800 hits, 250 home runs and 400 stolen bases. At the moment, he is one of five players to have 230 home runs, 400 stolen bases and 2,700 hits.
Scott Rolen is one of three third basemen to hit above .280 and hit 300 or more home runs, and one of four third basemen to have 8,000 or more plate appearances and an OPS of .850 or better. At 37 years old, if Rolen can collect 77 hits the rest of this season and average 100 hits over the next four years or 133 hits over the next 3 years, he would reach 2,500 hits. In addition to his defense, position and more than 300 HR, he would have a very strong candidacy.
Todd Helton‘s chances to make it into the Hall of Fame may be hurt by playing at Coors Field. However, if the 38-year-old can hit 46 more home runs over the next five years, he’d reach 400 home runs and have a strong case with 2,500 hits and 400+ home runs, a feat only 25 Major Leaguers have accomplished. He has hit 227 home runs at home and just 138 home runs on the road, so he may need to do more than most for people to believe in his Coors-tainted candidacy.
Vladimir Guerrero needs just 51 home runs to reach 500 for his career. Among players with at least 8,000 career plate appearances since 1950, his average of .318 ranks sixth behind Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Ichiro Suzuki and Todd Helton. he is one of only seven players in history with at least 350 home runs, a batting average of at least .310 and at least 2,500 career hits. Among the six others, only Manny Ramirez is not already in the Hall of Fame.
If Lance Berkman stays healthy and plays into his early 40s, he has a shot at reaching 500 home runs. If he can hit nine home runs the rest of this season, he’ll have 132 to go, which would mean four full seasons at his career pace of 33 per 162 games.
Tim Hudson has one of the 10 lowest ERAs of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1990 and is tied for the fourth-most wins among active pitchers with 185. He also has the lowest home-run rate of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1950.
For more baseball insight, visit BloombergSports.com.
What to Do About Third Base
by Eno Sarris //
This past week has been a tough one for the third base position. Ryan Zimmerman underwent abdominal surgery and will be out up to another six weeks. Pablo Sandoval will miss at least that much time with a broken hamate bone. David Freese also broke his hand. Scott Rolen is having shoulder issues. Ian Stewart was sent down to the minor leagues. Pedro Alvarez is struggling with the whiff. If you have multiple teams, odds are you are looking for a third baseman in at least one league. We’ll break down some options here, tiered by league depth, so that you can sort through the mess.
Shallow Leagues
It’s hard to know exactly which players are available on your waiver wire, but chances are, if you’re in a ten-teamer, Chase Headley is out there for you. Ideally, you’d like to play him against righties and away from home – so if you can platoon him in this manner, go ahead. As a batter, Headley has made some strides. He’s showing the best walk rate of his career and his power is up from last year. He has a lifetime BABIP of .330, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a little luckier on balls in play despite owning a current .301 BABIP. By the end of the year, Headley should be hitting around .260 with double digit home runs and steals, so he’s a decent stop-gap player. Of course, if you are lucky enough to find Chipper Jones on your waiver, he’s a much better option. But Headley’s no bum. Finally, the best option is probably Jed Lowrie, who made his fifth start (eighth game) at the position on Tuesday night. If he’s available and eligible, he’s your man.
Standard Mixed Leagues
Edwin Encarnacion is doing everything he’s always done in terms of his plate discipline and hit trajectory stats, but the power hasn’t been there. It’s a little much to ask him to recover his power so soon after a wrist injury, but that might be what you are stuck with. If power is your sole goal, you may want to go with Ian Stewart, who is now back in the major leagues. In interviews he has practically demanded that he play every day. If the team allows him that – it’s not like Jose Lopez is a better option (with his 1 OPS+!), and Ty Wigginton is also a flawed player – he could go back to striking out a little less than a third of the time, which would probably result in an Encarnacion-ish .250 batting average with power. If every hit counts, Danny Valencia has had bad luck so far this season and should at least be able to hit .265 or so going forward.
AL- and NL- Only Leagues
In these leagues, you’re mostly just screwed. In my 11-team AL-only, the best waiver option is either Omar Vizquel or Matt Tolbert. I’d take Tolbert, mostly just because he’s playing often because of the current state of the Twins infield. If Andy LaRoche is available in your league, he’s been seeing more time for the Athletics and has been acquitting himself well. On the NL side, Mike Fontenot is getting more playing time at shortstop and, because of his position eligiblity, actually create some trade value for himself by stealing the starting shorstop role in San Francisco while your third baseman is out. That’s how bad Miguel Tejada has been this year. Over with the Reds, Daniel Descalso is probably the man taking over for Freese right now, but watch Allen Craig if he’s available, as he’s the best bat in this paragraph – but he’ll have to build up eligibility at the positon, most likely.
Third base is hurting right now, literally and figuratively. Hopefully some of these free agent options will help you survived until you get your third baseman back.
For more check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2011.
What To Do About Third Base
by Eno Sarris //
This past week has been a tough one for the third base position. Ryan Zimmerman underwent abdominal surgery and will be out up to another six weeks. Pablo Sandoval will miss at least that much time with a broken hamate bone. David Freese also broke his hand. Scott Rolen is having shoulder issues. Ian Stewart was sent down to the minor leagues. Pedro Alvarez
is struggling with the whiff. If you have multiple teams, odds are you
are looking for a third baseman in at least one league. We’ll break down
some options here, tiered by league depth, so that you can sort through
the mess.
Shallow Leagues
It’s hard to know exactly which players are available on your waiver wire, but chances are, if you’re in a ten-teamer, Chase Headley
is out there for you. Ideally, you’d like to play him against righties
and away from home – so if you can platoon him in this manner, go ahead.
As a batter, Headley has made some strides. He’s showing the best walk
rate of his career and his power is up from last year. He has a lifetime
BABIP of .330, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a little
luckier on balls in play despite owning a current .301 BABIP. By the end
of the year, Headley should be hitting around .260 with double digit
home runs and steals, so he’s a decent stop-gap player. Of course, if
you are lucky enough to find Chipper Jones on your waiver, he’s a much better option. But Headley’s no bum. Finally, the best option is probably Jed Lowrie, who made his eighth start at the position on Tuesday night. If he’s available and eligible, he’s your man.
Standard Mixed Leagues
Edwin Encarnacion
is doing everything he’s always done in terms of his plate discipline
and hit trajectory stats, but the power hasn’t been there. It’s a little
much to ask him to recover his power so soon after a wrist injury, but
that might be what you are stuck with. If power is your sole goal, you
may want to go with Ian Stewart, who is now back in the
major leagues. In interviews he has practically demanded that he play
every day. If the team allows him that – it’s not like Jose Lopez is a much better option, and Ty Wigginton
is also a flawed player – he could go back to striking out a little
less than a third of the time, which would probably result in an
Encarnacion-ish .250 batting average with power. If every hit counts, Danny Valencia has had bad luck so far this season and should at least be able to hit .265 or so going forward.
AL- and NL- Only Leagues
In these leagues, you’re mostly just screwed. In my 11-team AL-only, the best waiver option is either Omar Vizquel or Matt Tolbert. I’d take Tolbert, mostly just because he’s playing often because of the current state of the Twins infield. If Andy LaRoche
is available in your league, he’s been seeing more time for the
Athletics and has been acquitting himself well. On the NL side, Mike Fontenot
is getting more playing time at shortstop and, because of his position
eligiblity, actually create some trade value for himself by stealing the
starting shorstop role in San Francisco while your third baseman is
out. That’s how bad Miguel Tejada has been this year. Over with the Reds, Daniel Descalso is probably the man taking over for Freese right now, but watch Allen Craig if he’s available, as he’s the best bat in this paragraph – but he’ll have to build up eligibility at the positon, most likely.
Third base is hurting right now, literally and figuratively.
Hopefully some of these free agent options will help you survived until
you get your third baseman back.
First Half Fantasy All-Star Lineup, Part II
by Eno Sarris //
Earlier this week, we talked about some fantasy All-Stars and how they were determined by their return on investment as much as their actual production. The cheaper a fantasy player, the more valuable his breakout.
Now it’s time to finish off the lineup with a look at other players who have exceeded expectations this year, and whether or not they will continue to do so.
SS Juan Uribe
We could have easily installed Rafael Furcal here, and deservedly so. But Eriq Gardner did a great job breaking down Furcal, just the other day. Plus, the injury risk inherent with Furcal going into the season is still there.
Instead, we’ll take a player that is in the midst of a slide that has taken much of the wind out his sails already. His .242/.313/.475 June is even more worrisome because of its proximity to his .257/.300/.431 career line. Even in a poor month by Uribe’s 2010 standards, we see that he’s shown some improvement at the plate this year, though. He’s walking at a career-high rate, striking out at a four-year low rate, and even carried over much of his power from last year. The back story with Uribe is one of a below-average BABIP, both this year (.274) and career (.285). Though he doesn’t have bushels of line drives in his arsenal (19.4% career), it’s probably the lack of speed (51% career success rate on stolen bases, low speed scores) that is hurting Uribe’s BABIP.
In any case, he won’t be worth much in trade talks with his career stats, so keeping him – hopefully on the bench during this tough stretch – is your only option. If the new-ish approach at the plate holds, he should return to grace at some point this summer.
3B Scott Rolen
As with Furcal above, Rolen’s biggest knock coming into the season was his injury history. He hadn’t topped 128 games in a season since 2006, and had averaged 111 games per season since 2005. He’s missed some games this year, but he’s on a pace that would net him closer to 140 games this year, making his owners seem to be geniuses.
Other than his good health so far this year, though, Rolen has enjoyed a power surge that has his slugging percentage over .500 for the first time since 2006. It’s no linear relationship, but the fact that the last time he was this healthy for this long was the last time he showed this much power is worth noting. In 2006, he hit .296 with 22 home runs, and he should top that home run total this year, with 17 bombs already jacked on the year. It helps to call Great American Ballpark home – the park has been one of baseball’s top parks for homers so far this year – but it’s the health that makes Rolen a hold, especially since it’s the health issues of the past that will keep Rolen owners from getting full value in a trade. Keep a caddy around for him, too, since he already has a hurting hamstring right now and has missed the last few games.
OF Josh Hamilton
Here’s a real-life All-Star who also happens to be a fantasy All-Star. Once again, injury concerns with Hamilton depressed his pre-season rankings past the half-century mark, and he’s shown health that has allowed his real talent to shine through. Those concerns were real – he’s only averaged 112 games per season so far in his young career, but since he’s still relatively young – 29 – perhaps those concerns were over-blown.
Judging from his Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools spider graphs, Hamilton is a true five-category performer and even a Triple Crown candidate. It goes without saying that a batting average like he has (.357), built on a BABIP like the one he owns (.397), won’t last. On the other hand, a .306 career batting average suggests he can still produce in that statistic going forward. His slugging percentage (.638) is at a career-high, but his line drive rate (22.4%) and home runs per fly ball (20.9%) are both high, and in line with his career numbers (21.8% and 18% respectively). Hit a lot of line drives, and convert a fifth of your fly balls into home runs, and you’ll have great power. Even with a step back, Hamilton is the fantasy All-Star of the year, most likely. If you’re going to sell, only sell for top-dollar talent in return.
For more on other fantasy All-Stars, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.
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