Tagged: Manny Ramirez

Ballpark Figures: Hall of Fame Predictions Part One

 

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

 

Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw discuss players who they think will definitely be inducted into the Hall of Fame and players who are debatable.

 

Definites

Based on his statistics, Manny Ramirez should be a Hall of Famer. He has 2574 hits, 1831 RBI and 555 home runs in his career. He is a 12-time All-Star and has two World Series rings (’04, ’07) and nine Silver Slugger awards. However, his use of PEDs has tarnished his statistics and will keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

 

Though Albert Pujols is struggling a bit this season with the Angels, he has already cemented a spot in the Hall of Fame. He has 2,142 hits, 456 home runs and a .325 batting average in his career. He is a three-time MVP (’05, ’08, ’09) and a nine-time All-Star and has won two World Series (’06, ’11), six Silver Slugger awards and two Gold Glove awards.

 

Like Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki‘s numbers are down this season, but he deserves induction into the Hall of Fame based on his past performances. He has 2,504 hits, 432 stolen bases and a .323 average in his career. The 10-time All-Star also won MVP and Rookie of the Year honors in 2001 and has earned 10 Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers.

 

Derek Jeter is another player who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. The 12-time All-Star has 3,177 career hits, 344 stolen bases and a .313 career average, as well as five Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. Above all, he is a big-time winner with five World Series rings.

 

Chipper Jones, set to retire at the end of this year after 19 seasons, is certainly Hall of Fame-bound. He has 2,650 hits, 459 home runs and a .304 average in his career, in addition to an MVP award (’99), seven All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers.

 

Alex Rodriguez, a 14-time All-Star and three-time MVP, is another player whose Hall of Fame candidacy is in question due to PEDs. However, it can be argued that after the steroid era ended, A-Rod still put up good enough numbers to warrant induction. He has 2,841 career hits and 640 home runs, and is 76 RBI away from 2000 for his career. He has one World Series ring (’09), 10 Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves.

 

Jim Thome is headed for the Hall of Fame with his 608 career HR. The five-time All-Star has had 12 seasons of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI but he is not just a home-run hitter. He has 1,710 walks, ranking 10th all-time.

 

Mariano Rivera is another player already in the Hall of Fame. He is the all-time saves leader with 608 and has a 2.21 career ERA, good for 13th all-time. He is the greatest closer of all time and one of the most clutch performers in sports. Despite being 42 years old, Rivera was as good as ever before his season was cut short by a torn ACL.

 

Questionable

Jamie Moyer sits at 269 wins as he is currently pitching in AAA and trying to make another comeback, this time with the Baltimore Orioles. If he returns shortly and assuming he pitches every fifth day, he could potentially start 19 games and could pick up the six wins he needs to reach 275 for his career. If the 49-year-old can somehow keep pitching into his fifties, he could have a shot at 300 wins and the Hall of Fame.

 

Johnny Damon‘s easiest path to the Hall of Fame is to get another 254 hits to reach 3,000 for his career. If he gets just 54 more hits and 17 more home runs, he would join Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds and Craig Biggio as the only players to have 2,800 hits, 250 home runs and 400 stolen bases. At the moment, he is one of five players to have 230 home runs, 400 stolen bases and 2,700 hits.

 

Scott Rolen is one of three third basemen to hit above .280 and hit 300 or more home runs, and one of four third basemen to have 8,000 or more plate appearances and an OPS of .850 or better. At 37 years old, if Rolen can collect 77 hits the rest of this season and average 100 hits over the next four years or 133 hits over the next 3 years, he would reach 2,500 hits. In addition to his defense, position and more than 300 HR, he would have a very strong candidacy.

 

Todd Helton‘s chances to make it into the Hall of Fame may be hurt by playing at Coors Field. However, if the 38-year-old can hit 46 more home runs over the next five years, he’d reach 400 home runs and have a strong case with 2,500 hits and 400+ home runs, a feat only 25 Major Leaguers have accomplished. He has hit 227 home runs at home and just 138 home runs on the road, so he may need to do more than most for people to believe in his Coors-tainted candidacy.

 

Vladimir Guerrero needs just 51 home runs to reach 500 for his career. Among players with at least 8,000 career plate appearances since 1950, his average of .318 ranks sixth behind Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Ichiro Suzuki and Todd Helton. he is one of only seven players in history with at least 350 home runs, a batting average of at least .310 and at least 2,500 career hits. Among the six others, only Manny Ramirez is not already in the Hall of Fame.

 

If Lance Berkman stays healthy and plays into his early 40s, he has a shot at reaching 500 home runs. If he can hit nine home runs the rest of this season, he’ll have 132 to go, which would mean four full seasons at his career pace of 33 per 162 games.

 

Tim Hudson has one of the 10 lowest ERAs of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1990 and is tied for the fourth-most wins among active pitchers with 185. He also has the lowest home-run rate of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1950.

 

 

For more baseball insight, visit BloombergSports.com.

Tampa Bay Rays Sign Manny Ramirez

By Tommy Rancel //

After watching several key players leave via free agency, and a few others moved in trades for prospects, Andrew Friedman surveyed the market and decided it was time to play. What else would you expect from the guy who is quoted in Jonah Keri’s upcoming book, The Extra 2%, as saying “I am purely market driven. I love players I think I can get for less than they are worth.”

Signing arguably the greatest right-handed hitter of his generation to a one-year deal worth $2 million is right in Friedman’s wheelhouse. Sure, a 38-year-old Manny Ramirez is not the same Manny who dominated the American League for more than a decade. But for the bargain basement price of $2 million, the Rays are not paying him to be that guy. Better, that same 38-year-old Ramirez is still very productive.

Ramirez battled leg injuries and a hernia injury last year that limited him to just 90 games. However, he hit .298/.409/.460 and had a 141 wRC+ (an offensive stat from fangraphs.com which measures runs created by a hitter; a wRC+ of 100 is average). When he was in the lineup, he was still a near-elite hitter.

Though his home run power is not likely reach the 37 he hit in 2008, he still has enough power to belt 20-plus home runs and produce 20-plus doubles, if given 500 plate appearances. He continues to have a fantastic batting eye, which will help keep him on base nearly 40% of the time–huge in leagues that count OBP, but also helps with runs scored in standard 5×5 leagues. Batting in the middle of a lineup that features several other high-on-base hitters – including the newly signed Johnny Damon – he’ll have plenty of chances to drive in runs too.

By moving to designated hitter full-time, the concerns about Ramirez’s injuries should be eased a bit. He underwent hernia surgery in October and has been working out in Arizona in advance of spring training. (Peter Gammons Tweeted that Ramirez is in excellent shape.)

One of Andrew Friedman’s goals this off-season was to find a middle-of-the-order bat to replace Carlos Pena and team up with Evan Longoria in the heart of the Rays’ lineup. Ramirez might not replace all the power lost by Pena’s exit, but along with Matt Joyce, the Rays now have adequate pop surrounding their franchise player.

The age and injury concerns – along with the potential for Manny to be Manny – are understandable. That said, no one is counting on Ramirez to carry a lineup – real or fantasy. As an OF4 or Utility option in standard mixed leagues, Ramirez should provide plenty of value, considering the price tag should be a mid-to-late round pick.  If you show the patience of Andrew Friedman on draft day, you too will love getting a quality player for less than what he is worth.

What We Can Learn From Vladimir Guerrero This Off-Season

By Eriq Gardner //

Over the past few years, thanks to tight purse strings and perhaps the waning influences of PEDs, there’s been a youth movement in baseball. More than ever, teams are reluctant to lock up older superstars to big contracts.
Nevertheless, we all tend to get a little too down on older players coming off of bad years.
Take Vladimir Guerrero, for instance.
One year ago today, Guerrero was coming off injuries and a lousy season. In 2009, he appeared in only 100 games and hit just 15 HRs and 50 RBIs. The Los Angeles Angels didn’t express much interest in re-signing the one time American League MVP. Neither did fantasy owners.
We all know how that turned out. Signed to a one-year deal by the Texas Rangers, Guerrero had a tremendous comeback season. He hit 29 HRs and 115 RBIs with a .300 batting average.
Many attribute his newfound success to the favorable hitting environment in Texas. But Guerrero wasn’t the only veteran coming off a disappointing year who shined in 2010. Other 30-year-olds who provided a nice dividend included Adrian Beltre, Coco Crisp, and Brett Myers.
If fantasy owners tend to underestimate older players, I can think of three good reasons why.
First, while it’s true that player performance tends to gradually deteriorate for thirty-somethings, the slope from superstardom to retirement is rarely a smooth downward descent. One bad season doesn’t have to follow the next. Yes, the macro-trends may support lesser performance in a player’s 30s, but in the micro-sense, predicting what’s going to happen one season to the next is not as pat. 
Second, a season’s worth of baseball is an arbitrary sample set. And a small one, too. Even 162 games of baseball can’t tell us whether a ballplayer is responding to the influence of Father Time or is just having a bad year. 
Third, bad seasons by older superstars tend to soak up a lot of bad press. This is especially true of those whose contracts are up and who are searching for a new job. Athletes make tens of millions of dollars, and we’re all very sensitive to washed-up ones who don’t earn their paycheck.
Fortunately, all this provides a nice buying opportunity. As a “value investor,” I’m watching older players especially closely this off-season. 
I’m definitely curious where Lance Berkman ends up this off-season. He’s nowhere near the hottest commodity in the free agent market, but he’s only a couple seasons removed from 29 HR. 18 SB, and being selected in the second round of most fantasy drafts. This season, he only hit 14 HRs, but was plagued with some bad luck. If there’s any player who screams, “the next Vladimir Guerrero,” it might be Berkman.
Similarly, Magglio Ordonez, Derek Jeter, Derrek Lee, Manny Ramirez, and Javier Vazquez are all potential values heading into 2011. These players could fall victim to overreaction to their poor seasons and could be attained cheaply heading into the next season. No, I wouldn’t sign any of these players to a long-term contract, if I was sitting in a major league front office, but fortunately, most fantasy owners only have to make single-year analysis. Given that, I like the odds.
For more on Lance Berkman and other older free agents, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office.

Manny Being Manny In New Places

by Eno Sarris // 

Judging by his inglorious exit from from a Los Angeles Dodgers team that sits five and a half games out of the wild card (before four other teams), one might be forgiven for comparing Manny Ramirez to chopped liver. The prevailing attitude vis-a-vis the mercurial slugger is that he’s injured too often and that at 38 years old, his offensive skills are just not what they used to be.

The prevailing view is wrong on this one. Ramirez has sported an OPS over .900 the past two years in Los Angeles, showing relatively little deterioration in his skills as a batter. There’s also reason to believe that he may be able to stay healthier in his new digs.

First, he’s still a great hitter. Ramirez’s walk rate, strikeout rate, and BABIP have held steady his whole career at above-average levels, making him an excellent bet for a strong OBP and batting average. Even in this ‘down’ period of his career, he should still put up a batting average near .300 and an OBP near .400 – benchmarks he’s hit more often than not in his illustrious career. These two facts alone make him an above-average real-life batter and a decent fantasy baseball option in many leagues.

MannyGrab.jpgPower is the real question mark, admittedly. After putting up isolated slugging numbers (slugging percentage minus batting average, ISO is a statistic that focuses on extra-base hits) near .300 for most of his career, Ramirez dipped to .241 last year and has a .199 ISO this year. His positive test for performance-enhancing drugs in 2009 has been blamed for this power outage, but Ramirez still had an ISO of .204 after he returned, which would put him on par with players like Brian McCann (.197 ISO), Aramis Ramirez (.201 ISO) and Rickie Weeks (.203 ISO) this year.

If a .200 ISO does not seem exciting enough, there are reasons to think he can do better in Chicago. According to StatCorner.com, the park factor for home runs for right-handed hitters in Los Angeles was 92. Compare that to U.S. Cellular, home of the White Sox, which has a 134 park factor for home runs for right-handed hitters. That is a serious swing in fortunes. In 213 earlier-career at-bats at the Cell, he’s had a .338/.448/.601 line that suggests he feels comfortable there.

MannyDGrab.jpgThe last piece of optimism arises when we consider defense. Not normally important when considering fantasy baseball, Ramirez has been so poor defensively that it had begun to cost him playing time. Since defensive statistics have been kept at FanGraphs.com, he has ranked in the very bottom of the outfield defensive rankings. Only one player with as many as 350 innings in left field this year has performed worse than Ramirez, for example. With the benefit of the DH – his new full-time position – he won’t have to stumble around the outfield anymore and should get his full share of at-bats. Maybe he’ll even stay healthier without the added stress on his legs and back.

Ramirez probably should have signed with an AL team before the 2009 season, but the Dodgers thought he had enough in the tank to help, even in the outfield. Now that it’s Manny time again in the AL and Ramirez is a DH, he should have enough left to help your fantasy team down the stretch.

For more on Manny Ramirez and other DHs, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

(Video) Bloomberg Sports’ Ballpark Figures: Fantasy Headlines

By Bloomberg Sports // Ballpark Figures: Stock Report— Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele and Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw discuss the fantasy baseball headlines. Shaw tells us Manny Ramirez should enjoy a bump in production when it comes to joining the Chicago White Sox. Aroldis Chapman should rack up plenty of K’s and a sweet ERA for the Reds. Brandon Morrow’s fantasy value takes a hit as the Blue Jays look to limit his innings. Jose Reyes is injured again and should not be depended upon for at least another week. Finally, Yankees rookie Ivan Nova has pushed controversy to the side with another fine outing for the Bombers. For more fantasy insight follow us Twitter.com/BloombergSports.