March 2011
(Vid) Behind the Numbers: All Things New York Baseball
Behind the Numbers Season: All Things New York Baseball
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Hosts: Robert Shaw and Wayne Parillo
Watch the entire episode, or use the links below to jump to the exact point you want:
The Yankees Episode
Guest: Tom Trudeau
Bloomberg Sports baseball analyst and former ESPN worker. Follow him at @Tom_Trudeau
- 0:30 – 0:55 Introducing Tom Trudeau
- 1:22 -2:34 Cliff Lee hinted the Yankees were too old in the near future. Tom says no.
- 2:34 – 3:35 The (justified) excitement over the Yankees farm team
- 3:39 -5:11 Cashman fills in the margins. Do Dickerson & Millwood have any use this season?
- 5:12 – 7:05 Andruw Jones: How he’ll help the Yankees and fantasy owners too
- 7:24 – 9:21 Looking at the uncertain starting rotation
- 9:22 -10:34 Can the Yankees still win the division? Maybe
- 10:34 – 11:30 More on the Starters & Sabathia’s career innings pitched
- 11:33 -13:48 What has to happen for Yankees to make the post-season
- 13:59 – 16:07 Martin & Posada: What to think & expect
- 16:27 – 18:03 Are the Toronto Blue Jay a contender?
The Mets Episode
Guest: Eno Sarris
Writer for fangraphs.com, Amazin’ Avenue, and Bloomberg Sports. Follow him at @EnoSarris
- 0:30 – 0:52 The Return of Eno Sarris to the show
- 0:55 – 1:20 Bay goes down & what it means
- 1:40 – 2:42 Thoughts on the Mets newfound flexibility
- 2:51 -4:02 Should the Mets just play the young guys?
- 4:45 -5:31 Why Sarris thinks the Mets prospects are flawed & how they used to be (statistically) the fastest team rushing players to the majors
- 6:43 – 8:24 Jose Reyes, the rest of the NL east, and flawed teams
- 8:25 – 9:26 Where the Mets can finish & the Mets minor leaguers to watch
- 9:36 – 12:11 What to think of the Mets middle relief and why not to use WAR
- 12:37 – 16:36 A breakdown of the Mets starters & Sarris runs the numbers on the odds of starting pitchers being hurt
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The House that Jeter Built (Video)
This off-season Hank Steinbrenner seemed to go after his franchise star when he said that last season the Yankees were too busy building mansions, that they did not focus enough to be champions. Well good news for Yankees management and fantasy managers alike, is the fact that the Captain’s mansion has been built.
Derek Jeter’s mansion measures at greater than 31,000 square feet with a half dozen car garage. The house was built for $7.7 million, which would likely buy only a four bedroom apartment in Manhattan.
If, indeed, Jeter was consumed by the development of his house last season, the good news is that the construction has been completed (video below).
For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com
Targeting Closers Of Tomorrow
By Tommy Rancel //
The production from relief pitchers is volatile in nature. In addition to the uncertainty of the position, there are also health concerns in some bullpens. Just this spring we’ve seen a few closers (Brad Lidge and Brian Wilson) go down with injury. With all things considered: injury, ineffectiveness, fatigue, it is wise to keep one eye on the future when building a bullpen. That said, here are a few names to keep tabs on as we enter the 2011 season.
Jake McGee:
Among the top arms in the Rays’ system, McGee will complete the transformation from starter to reliever that began late last season. As a left-handed pitcher who can hit the high 90’s with his fastball, you can literally see the appeal of McGee as a late-inning option. While he struggled developing his secondary pitches as a starter, he can now focus on his fastball and slider as a reliever.
McGee pitched out of the Rays’ pen just eight times last season, but showed the strikeout stuff you want to see from a shutdown reliever. Bloomberg Sports’ projects him for 60 innings this season with nearly a strikeout per inning. If McGee’s stuff translates as expected, that number could be even higher. Tampa Bay will start the season with a closer-by-committee, although veterans Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta are likely to get the early ninth inning opportunities. Meanwhile, if McGee can get batters out on both sides of the plate, he could find himself as Joe Maddon’s high-leverage relief ace of choice.
Jordan Walden:
Another former starter, Walden pitched exclusively in relief during the 2010 season. Surprisingly, his strikeout rate actually dipped as a reliever in the minors. Upon his late-season promotion to the majors, his K-rate spiked. In 15.1 innings with the big league club, Walden punched out 23 batters. That translates to a K/9 of 13/5. Like most young pitchers, Walden struggles with control and command. That said, his fastball can touch the triple digits and his slider is a decent second option. The interesting thing to watch is his strikeout rate going forward. If he is getting swings and misses in bunches, the walks will become more tolerable.
Fernando Rodney will begin the season as the Angels’ closer; however after rumored interest in several high-profiled relievers this winter, Los Angeles does not seemed to be married to Rodney in the ninth. If Rodney struggles, set-up man Kevin Jepsen could get a look, but Walden has the goods to be the guy at some point this year.
Kenley Jansen:
Like the others named above, Jansen is also transitioning to the bullpen. However, he is a converted catcher and not starting pitcher. He spent the first four seasons of his professional career as a catcher in the Dodgers’ system and was behind the plate for the Netherlands during 2009 World Baseball Classic. Jansen began the transation to the mound during the 2009 season. With a high-90’s fastball and a really good slider, it did not take him long to shoot up through the system. In fact, he bypassed the Triple-A level altogether.
He made his big league debut in late June and was a key piece in the bullpen going forward. In 27 innings of work he allowed just two earned runs (0.67) and racked up a ridiculous 41 strikeouts. The K/9 near 14.0 and BB/9 near 5.0 show the same wild, yet effective, approach exhibited by Carlos Marmol with the Cubs.
Unlike the Rays and Angels, the Dodgers have a very good closer in Jonathan Broxton. On the other hand, Broxton fell out of favor with the club last season and briefly lost his job as closer. Los Angeles also has another very good arm in Hong-Chih Kuo to close should Broxton falter. Jansen faces more obstacles than Walden or McGee, but has similar potential to become a true relief ace with time.
Even if McGee, Walden, and Jansen don’t rack up double-digit saves, the potential for high strikeouts make them attractive options in deep leagues and those that count holds.
Kila Ka’aihue: Finally?
By Eriq Gardner //
The Top 10 Hitting Prospects
By R.J. Anderson //
Last week, I looked at the Top 10 Pitching Prospects according to Front Office. This week, let’s focus on the Top 10 Hitting Prospects.
1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Domonic Brown
4. Desmond Jennings
5. Yonder Alonso
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Jesus Montero
8. Wil Myers
9. Wilin Rosario
10. Gary Sanchez
Freeman is the healthiest and most assured of a starting gig out of the rest of the options, as he figures to be the Braves’ Opening Day starter at first base. Brown suffered a broken hamate bone earlier in the spring and will miss a few weeks into the regular season. Brown was in line to become at least a part time player in the Phillies’ outfield, so look for him to be an intriguing in-season addition.
A similar thing can be written for Jennings, although his situation depends on his own health as well as his major league counterparts (namely Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon). An injury to an outfielder or infielder could leave Jennings on his way up thanks to the Rays’ flexibility with players like Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez. Alonso has been described as pure trade bait despite working out in the outfield during the exhibition season. The Reds have a pretty good first baseman already who isn’t going anywhere else anytime soon, leaving Alonso’s value as minimal.
The list is loaded with backstops. Arencibia, Mesoraco, Montero, Myers, Rosario, and Sanchez all don the tools of ignorance. Of those, only Arencibia and Montero are likely to see time in the big leagues early on, although Mesoraco could very well reach the show by season’s end. Sanchez is probably the only one that you should remove from your draft boards, as he only turned 18 in December and isn’t a viable option outside of deep keeper leagues.
As is the case with all prospects, don’t build your team expecting them to live up to your wildest dreams. Instead, use them in complementary roles until they’ve proven otherwise. After all, not every season brings a Jason Heyward to the table.
(Vid) Behind The Numbers – Cramming for The Draft
Behind the Numbers – Season 2: Cramming for the Draft When You Don’t Have Enough Time to Prepare
Behind The Numbers Season 2 tries out a new video format which includes pop-up information about the guests and subject matter.
Jonah Keri, New York Times National bestsell author of the Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First joins Behind the Numbers co-host Wayne Parillo and Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw for a pre-draft cram
session, helping out since Parillo is a new father and hasn’t exactly had time to prepare. Oh, and there is a special Front Office discount code for listeners.
- Buy the Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First
- Follow Jonah on Twitter
- Subscribe to The Jonah Keri Podcast on Itunes
Watch all of each episode, or use the links below to jump to that exact point in the episode.
Watch Episode 1
Watch Episode 2Episode 1
- 0:16 – 1:15 Why we’re doing a Cramming episode
- 2:00 – 5:34 All About the Rays and how it affects fantasy
- 5:35 – 7:00 Jose Lopez as a bad real life player
- 7:22 – 8:09 Bad real life players who are sometimes good fantasy players
- 8:26 – 9:30 Jose Reyes: Where is he playing & injury
factors - 10:15 – 11:21 Position Scarcity with short stop
- 11:22- 12:59 SS options: Ian Desmond & Stephen Drew & why Ian Desmond should scare you. Or not.
- 13:05 -16:00 Looking at 3B: Top Performers and where to get them. Including Youk. David Wright. A-Rod
- 16:04 – 17:50 Jose Bautista v David Wright
- 17:45 – 18:40 Ryan Zimmerman v David Wright. Where Rob & Wayne agree to disagree
- 18:45 – 20:21 Aaron Harang moves to Petco and what it means
- 20:17 – 20:45 Why you need to include MORE ballpark
factors - 21:23 – 22:33 Chris Young to CitiField
- 22:25 – 24:15 Adrian Beltre to Texas
- 25:30 – 26:11 Jonah gives his option on Hall of Fame
Voters - 26:09 Wayne reads Jonah’s book to his new born daughter and what happens
Episode 2
- 0:48 – 2:11 All About the Extra 2% and Jonah’s most gratifying reviews
- 2:17 – 5:37 Closer Strategies: Wait or Grab When You Can? And how format matters
- 6:00 – 7:17 A comment from @sabometrics regarding Bobby Jenks as a potential BoSox closer?
- 7:29 – 7:50 JJ Putz: Potential Closer
- 7:49 – 9:25 Jonah Reveals His Strategy for Specing on Potential Saves
- 9:35 – 11:00 More on JJ & Risk
- 11:31 – 14:00 Closers and Setup Guys to Keep an Out For & Jonah’s Super Duper Mega Break Out Potential Pick
- 14:00 – 16:44 Bobby Parnell: Why he could close and why he won’t
- 16:58 – 18:34 Big Names Coming off Injuries and What to Do with Them
- 18:38 – 19:41 Ian Kinsler
- 20:13 – 22:36 Wayne thinks 2B is scarce & Rob thinks it is deep
- 23:11 – 24:27 Jonah’s Final Thoughts on Drafting & Words of Wisdom
- 24:54 – 26:00 A little bit more on the Extra 2%
For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com
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Bloomberg Sports
Rob Shaw
Wayne Parillo
Curtis Granderson: Siren Call or Smart Pick?
by Eno Sarris //
According to the Bloomberg Sports Front Office tool, Curtis Granderson is the fourth-best center fielder and ranks at about 47th overall – and yet his ADP is hovering around triple-digits. Seems like a moment rife for opportunity. Except there’s the recent news about his health. And his ongoing platoon issues. Let’s take a look at these and see if they threaten to completely reduce his value to rubble.
First, it’s true that Granderson is not a great batter against lefties. His .215/.275/.347 line against lefties is much worse than his .287/.363/.528 line against righties. And that lacking lefty line has come in 859 plate appearances, so it’s somewhat reliable. He’s not great against lefties.
The thing is, he still takes at-bats against them. It only seems like he’s a platoon outfielder. Take a look at the chart below, and you’ll see that he actually took more at-bats against lefties than the average player last year. The Yankees know that, with his glove, he’s still valuable. And fantasy fans should know that he still hits 3-5 home runs a year against lefties, and, as the chart shows, isn’t sitting versus them. If you’ve got a good fourth outfielder in your daily-lineup fantasy league, fine, put him in instead of Granderson versus a lefty. But don’t discount Granderson too far for having a slight flaw.
Now Granderson is hurting from an oblique strain, but during the last spring training game, manager Joe Girardi said that his center fielder said that he would have played if it was the season. There’s still a week left before the season opens, but obliques are tricky. It’s hard to know exactly how much time, if any, Granderson will miss, and watching the news wire in the next couple days will hopefully help.
The injury news, along with his struggles against lefties, will surely depress Granderson further than his current ADP. On Yahoo, Delmon Young‘s ADP is 101.1, Nick Markakis‘ is 111.6, and Granderson’s is 112.5. I’d take the chance at power and speed over those two outfielders, even if the batting average is not always there. On ESPN, Granderson’s ADP is higher (87.7), and he might not be a good option over a healthy Corey Hart (93.4), but I’d certainly take him over Torii Hunter (116.4) and Juan Pierre (115.6), more one-dimensional players at this point in their careers.
Curtis Granderson is not perfect. But at some point, he’s a value. In mixed leagues, start looking at him once you approach double-digit rounds.
For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com
Young Starters To Target Late In Fantasy Drafts
By Tommy Rancel //
Names like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, and Felix Hernandez dominate the top tier of starting pitching in fantasy leagues. While getting a bonafide ace to anchor your rotation is important, filling the final few spots of your staff is also key, especially if you can find some gems in the later rounds. One way to find value late in the draft is targeting young, yet talented arms. Here are the top 5 projected youthful starters with an ADP of 150 or later.
Jaime Garcia
Madison Bumgarner
Jhoulys Chacin
James McDonald
Jeremy Hellickson
Garcia is the latest disciple of St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. As a rookie, he finished with a 13-8 record and a ridiculous 2.70 ERA in 163.1 innings. Even with a strikeout to walk ratio of over 2.0 and a phenomenal groundball rate, he is not likely to produce another sub-3.00 ERA in 2010. That said, Bloomberg Sports’ projects him with another double-digit win season and a more than respectable ERA of 3.73.
Despite being just 21-years-old, Bumgarner will enter 2011 as a key member of the defending World Series Champions’ rotation. The young lefty went 7-6 in his first big league season with a nice round 3.00 ERA. He won’t provide you with a ton of strikeouts, but should top 10 wins with an ERA under 4.00.
Staying in the National League West, Jhoulys Chacin was a much better pitcher than his 9-11 record showed. The Rockies’ right-hander compiled a 3.28 ERA in his first full season while striking out more batters (138) than innings pitched (137.1). Like many other Colorado starters, Chacin’s ERA at home (3.98) was much higher than his road mark (2.44). Even with regression, he should still be an above-average starter who gets drafted after round 20.
James McDonald was stolen by the Pittsburgh Pirates from the Dodgers in exchange for a handful of innings from Octavio Dotel. In 11 starts for the Pirates, he earned an ERA of 3.52 with a strong strikeout rate of 8.58. The Pirates may finish with another 90 losses, however, McDonald should provide solid numbers at the top of their rotation and value at the back end of fantasy ones.
Our lone American League representative is the most inexperienced member of the list. Jeremy Hellickson made just four starts for the Tampa Bay Rays late last season. That said, arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball goes into 2011 entrenched as the Rays’ fifth starter. Although his time with the club was brief, Hellickson showed his trademark control should easily transition to the big leagues. He’ll probably be limited to 175-185 innings, but Bloomberg Sports says those innings will be quality ones as his ERA projects to be under 4.0 (3.89).
Filling the front end of your rotation with the Halladay’s of the world is essential. But remember the Bumgarner types as you look for value from the SP4 and SP5 spots. All five of our pitchers have ADP’s in the triple-digits with the potential to provide double-digits in the win column.
Why Fly-Ball Pitchers May Be Better Bets Than Ground-Ball Pitchers
- The ability to retire batters via strikeouts
- The ability to limit base-runners by avoiding the issuance of walks
- The ability to limit home runs by keeping the ball on the ground
Pitchers who do a good job at these three things are commonly assumed to be very skilled. Pitchers who do these things well but don’t have a superb ERA to match are seen as unlucky.
- Pitchers with elite ground-ball skills (above 47 GB%) including stars like Felix Hernandez and Chris Carpenter and lesser ones like Paul Maholm and Aaron Cook.
- Pitchers with above-average ground-ball skills (about 44.5%-47%) including stars like Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia and lesser ones like Joe Saunders and Jeff Suppan.
- Pitchers with below-average ground-ball skills (about 40.5%-44.5%) including stars like Jake Peavy and Cole Hamels and lesser ones like Kevin Millwood and Kyle Lohse
- Pitchers with terrible ground-ball skills (below 40.5%) including stars like Jered Weaver and Matt Cain and lesser ones like Jarrod Washburn and Oliver Perez.
Now, let’s look at each of the categories.
Oakland: A Bullpen In Flux
by Eno Sarris //
Since about a third of opening day closers lose their jobs to injury or poor play every year, it’s not the greatest position in which to invest heavily. Instead, waiting to the end of the draft and using the quantity-not-quality approach to supplement an elite closer can provide the best return on investment. Mix the risk in your closer portfolio, in other words. This spring, we’re seeing the merits of this approach already.
In Oakland, Andrew Bailey saw Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday, and though it’s just a right forearm strain, he is known to be slightly frail. The former starter and ROY had Tommy John surgery in 2005 and only managed 49 innings last year because of an intercostal strain and some elbow surgery to get rid of loose bodies in the joint. Add the current forearm strain in, and he is a substantial injury risk.
That is, perhaps, why the Athletics stocked up on bullpen talent last year despite having a strong bullpen in 2010. Brian Fuentes has managed to put up more than 20 saves in each of the last six years, but comes with some flaws of his own. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher (33.5% career GB) who doesn’t do as well against righties as he does against similar-handed pitchers (11.34 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 versus lefties, 9.24 K/9, 4.16 BB/9 against righties).
Fellow new acquisition Grant Balfour will figure in the mix somehow if Bailey goes down for an extended period of time. Since he’s a righty, Balfour could contribute some saves as part of a platoon (10.10 K/9, 4.11 BB/9 versus righties). But Balfour, despite the unfortunate last name, is also pretty good against lefties (10.48 K/9, 4.51 BB/9), and if the team can stomach his occasional control blips, he might be the closer all by his lonesome.
Last year, five pitchers accrued saves for the Athletics, and Michael Wuertz was second to Bailey with six. If the 35-year old Fuentes declines further (he used to put up strikeout rates closer to ten than to eight) or the inconsistent Balfour can’t find the zone, Wuertz may again put up some saves. Either way, it’s likely that another half-dozen Oakland pitchers will accrue saves in 2011.
We all have to chase the save, and yet it’s the only stat that usually rewards a specific role on each team. Since pitchers are already more likely to get hurt than position players, and the closer role is so volatile on it’s own, it’s a good idea to spread your risk around as much as possible. Sure, get a stud closer early on, but then mitigate your risk late by taking fliers on pitchers like Fuentes and Balfour. If it doesn’t work out, you didn’t spend much on them, and then you can easily drop them for the next pitcher that starts accruing saves.
For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com
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