The first Division Series game five kicks off on Thursday night:
Detroit at Yankees- Ivan Nova vs Doug Fister
– Even though he is far from a strikeout pitcher, Nova has to get ahead in the count: 1-1 count is vital, .172 average with no home runs on 1-2 count, compared to a .413 average with 2 HR on 2-1.
– Derek Jeter- since July 4, batting .331
– Doug Fister does not give up walks (ranks 6th in MLB with 1.5 BB/9) or home runs (ranks 5th with 0.47 HR/9)
– Love the catcher situation for Tigers, Avila has the highest OPS .896 of all catchers, and Victor Martinez bats .340 as a DH compared to .284 as a catcher.
Now onto Friday night:
Arizona at Milwaukee- Ian Kennedy vs Yovani Gallardo
– Kennedy is best when the heat is on .140 average, just one home run with runners in scoring position.
– Ryan Roberts 11 home runs came in innings 1-3, just 1 in innings 7-9
– Corey Hart bats .370 when ahead in the count compared to .214 when behind
– Gallardo: April to August .246 average against on off-speed pitches // September: .158 average against
St. Louis at Philadelphia- Chris Carpenter vs Roy Halladay
– Pujols- keep the pitches outside .262 average, .360 slugging on outside pitches this season
– Carpenter should keep them in the game, he has a 2.39 ERA this season in games with 0-2 run support, compared to 5.70 when he gets 6+ runs.
– Raul Ibanez is a .274 hitter with 15 home runs at home compared to .210 with 5 home runs on the road
– Halladay can be beat on the first pitch- .331 average against 13 extra base hits