Results tagged ‘ Texas Rangers ’
Fantasy Baseball Preview: Edwin Jackson, Erik Bedard, and Yu Darvish
BY ROB SHAW
Edwin Jackson is young, durable, and has been a winner with 10-plus wins in each of the last four seasons. The solid track record begs the question why did so many teams pass on him.
The 28-year-old hurler is now on his seventh Major League team and he hasn’t played for losers either. He went 5-2 down the stretch for the Cardinals last season, playing a role in the team’s World Series Championship.
One of the hardest throwing hurlers in baseball, Jackson has improved his control over the years. His greatest weakness recently is that he is just too hittable. Even in his successful run with the Cardinals the opposition hit .300 against him. The good news is that he keeps the ball in the yards, but for fantasy managers looking for a low WHIP, Jackson is not a solution.
The move to Washington means he’ll now don the jersey for his sixth team over the last four years. However, Bloomberg Sports likes his fantasy value. The larger ballpark and National League setting should translate to 170 strikeouts, double-digit wins, and a 4.21 ERA.
Jackson is a fine low-risk, high ceiling option in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. After all, it was just a few years back that he threw a no-hitter while pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Let’s see if he can finally sustain such dominance over a full season.
Once one of the hurlers in the most demand in the Major Leagues, Erik Bedard hopes to build on his improvement from last season while joining the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Bedard was a disaster in Seattle. Because of injuries, he never lived up to the hype and while the Mariners traded away top prospect Adam Jones to the Orioles for him, they ended up letting him go for very little in return last season to the Red Sox.
The good news is that Bedard showed that even after all of the injury-ravaged seasons, he still has some potential right now. He offered fine control last season and fanned a batter per inning throughout the year.
A move to Pittsburgh should lead to some good results for Bedard’s fantasy managers. Pittsburgh’s ballpark plays neutral and he will no longer have to deal with designated hitters in the majority of his starts. Most importantly, he has sustained his health, which is the key to his performance.
BloombergSports.com projects a solid 3.74 ERA and 1 .30 WHIP from the veteran hurler this season, and with some luck he could reach double-digit wins for the first time in five years.
The loss of CJ Wilson could be crushing to the Texas Rangers. Just a year removed from a second World Series, the Rangers lost their ace for a second time. First it was Cliff Lee who bolted to rejoin the Phillies. Now it’s Wilson, and while he may not be as dominant as Lee, the fact that he joins the rival LA Angels of Anaheim makes matters worse.
The Rangers were desperate to respond and without many proven stars on the market they had to compete with teams including the Toronto Blue Jays to land Yu Darvish, an ace from Japan. With an enormous bid, the Rangers land the hard-throwing hurler who will enjoy the loftiest expectations by a free agent to join the Rangers perhaps since Alex Rodriguez signed his now infamous $252 million deal.
As far as realistic projections for Darvish, BloombergSports.com offers a 13-8 record, 185 strikeouts, and a 3.63 ERA for the hard-throwing hurler. That makes him the 16th best starting pitcher, and a top-50 fantasy talent.
Despite the lofty projections, there is still a great deal of risk for fantasy managers. After all, Darvish is new to America and will have to adapt culturally to Major League Baseball, plus he calls home to one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. He will not get away with many mistakes and the media will be hounding him all season long.
For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.
Aces on the Move: CJ Wilson, Heath Bell, and Joe Nathan
BY ROB SHAW
CJ Wilson may have been the top arm on the market this off-season, but the pressure is certainly not as intense on the hurler as it is on Albert Pujols. The reason is very simple, while Pujols is the best hitter in the world Wilson isn’t even the best arm on the Angels.
Wilson’s struggles in the postseason may have left a bad taste in the mouth of Rangers fans, but the hurler is actually in a much better situation now that he flees the hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington. Putting the 2011 playoffs aside, the year as whole brough great improvement for Wilson. His strikeouts went up while his walks went down.
Another factor for Wilson this season will be his run support. Typically leaving the Rangers, who are loaded with sluggers, will result in a decline of run support. However, that is not the case since Pujols will also join the Angels who already have some former first basemen who know something about providing big bats.
The Angels will be fun to watch for many reasons, and after falling to Pujols and the Cardinals in the postseason last season, Wilson should enjoy the shot at winning with Pujols as his teammate manning first base.
It made perfect sense for the Miami Marlins to sign Heath Bell. The veteran hurler has three straight seasons with 40-plus saves and while the Marlins have had some success in their bullpen in recent years, it has not been as dominant as what the Padres enjoyed. There is just one problem with bringing in Bell and expecting everything to run smoothly. There are signs that the 34-year-old may be losing his effectiveness.
A late bloomer with the Mets, Bell broke out in San Diego, where he had the benefit of little media attention and one of the most favorable ballparks for pitchers. In fact his 2.88 ERA on the road last season was not as dominant as the 2.15 ERA he posted at PETCO Park.
Bell also regressed as a strikeout hurler. His 11 K/9 dropped to 7 K/9, as his whiff rate fell by 9%. This is not just a matter of Bell losing velocity, in fact, the main issue has been a loss of effectiveness in his curveball. In 2010, the opposition hit just .141 against that pitch, and last season it spiked two-fold to .282. The out-pitch is not recording as many outs.
Bell should enjoy plenty of save opportunities since the Marlins did improve their starting rotation and offense, but there should be less heralded hurlers in fantasy leagues who can end up posting better numbers this season.
At first glance, last year was a disaster for long-time Twins closer Joe Nathan. His ERA doubled, his strikeouts declined, and his saves were cut drastically. Of course, Nathan was also returning to the mound after missing all of the 2010 with a major arm injury.
On that note, Nathan’s statistics should be measured differently. Rather than focus on the full season, we should pay greater attention to the end of the season when he finally shed all of his rust. From June 25th on, Nathan was his usual dominant self. His WHIP was a dominant 0.90 from that point forward, which suggests that even in his late 30s, Nathan still possesses the ability to dominate.
Nathan now joins the Texas Rangers, and while he will throw the ball in a much more hitter-friendly ballpark, he joins a better club that will likely result in more save opportunities. The ERA may take a slight uptick, but overall he will enjoy more saves and have more value assuming he can stay healthy. It also allows some of the younger hurlers to take on larger roles in the starting rotation.
Adrian Beltre, Texas Ranger
by Eno Sarris //
Look at the career statistics for Adrian Beltre, and you might be surprised to see how much money he’s made. After going to Texas and signing his newest five-year, $80 million contract (with a $16 million vesting option), Beltre will have earned close to $200 million (at least) by the time his career ends. And yet right now, his career batting average is a mere .275 and he’s averaged about 23 home runs per full year.
The truth is, he’s probably been worth the money (if not high fantasy picks most seasons) for two reasons: his glove and the offense-suppressing ballparks that have made his numbers look worse than they’d be most elsewhere. R.J. Anderson will take a look at the value of Beltre’s excellent glove later this week. For now, let’s take a look at Beltre and his relationship to his home parks over his career.
Beltre didn’t like hitting in Safeco field. He’s a right-handed pull hitter and the park factor for home runs by a right-hander in that park is just 84 (100 is average). That kept him to a .253/.307/.409 line in 363 games in Seattle – 1406 at-bats that helped suppress his overall value in fantasy leagues. That modest work came after 489 games and a .253/.316/.423 line in spacious Dodger Stadium (which had a 92 park factor for right-handed home runs last year).
What happens to his overall numbers when you take out those 3076 at-bats? Away from Safeco and Dodger Stadium, Beltre has hit .293 with 26 home runs per 600 at-bats. And, as he showed with his .325 batting average and 28 home runs in Fenway, Beltre can be even better if given an extra boost by his home park.
Fenway had a 95 park factor for right-handed home runs – and a 130 park factor for right-handed doubles. That helped Beltre put together his second-best batting average and clear his previous high in doubles by eight in a great year for the Red Sox. His new stadium in Arlington has a 105 park factor for right-handed home runs (105 for doubles), and Beltre will surely enjoy calling such a park home.
The .331 batting average on balls in play in 2010, in the face of his career .294 BABIP, probably means that his batting average will fall in 2011. His new park won’t allow him to pepper the Green Monster with doubles any more. But while the batting average falls, the power might surge. A home park that is 10% friendlier for home runs will help his case.
Bill James projects a .283 batting average and 24 home runs for Beltre in 2011. Up the home run total since his new home stadium is now determined, and that looks about right. Take Beltre in the early rounds of your draft (especially given the position scarcity at third base) and profit off owners that put too much credence in his overall career numbers.
Is Brandon Webb Rosterable?
By R.J. Anderson //
Brandon Webb averaged 33 starts a season from 2003 until the 2009 season. He’s made one start since (on Opening Day of the 2009 season), as a shoulder injury sidelined him for the duration of the 2010 season. After 199 appearances with the Arizona Diamondbacks, number 200 and beyond will come as a member of the Texas Rangers. Webb signed a one-year deal with Texas, heavy on incentives, over the holiday weekend.
Webb threw for scouts late last season, and the reported velocity readings were disappointing. Webb has never been someone to toss fireballs at batters – his fastball has sat around 87-89 for his career – but low-to-mid 80s is a whole other beast. Webb has been one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in the game throughout his career, which could lead you to wonder if he could, in fact, get by with a fastball of 85 mph or lower. If he does, he’ll be in rarefied air. Below is a list of right-handed pitchers with velocities under 86 miles per hour on their fastballs last season, along with the usage rate and their ERA:
R.A. Dickey (83.9 MPH, 16.1% usage): 2.84 ERA
Livan Hernandez (84.3 MPH, 61.4% usage): 3.66 ERA
The accompanying peripherals suggest both Dickey and Hernandez weren’t as good as their ERA suggests. Next, comparing Webb to Dickey is a bit ridiculous. Dickey lives and dies with his knuckler – which makes him odd. Even odder is that he lacks a UCL in his throwing arm – i.e. the ligament operated on in Tommy John surgery. Comparing Webb to Hernandez is imperfect as well. Hernandez is notorious for his pacing and relative lack of stuff, getting by for years on guile and durability.
That Webb fits into his own category isn’t surprising. What that means, though, is that he should be approached carefully. Depending on spring reports, he could become borderline rosterable in deep AL-only leagues,. But for now Webb is not a suitable fantasy option, until proven otherwise.
MLB Season In Review: Texas Rangers Pitchers
By Tommy Rancel //
Biggest Surprise(s): C.J. Wilson & Colby Lewis
In one of the first articles at Bloomberg Sports, we wondered if Wilson could physically handle the transition from reliever to starter, and more importantly, if his stellar stats would follow. Wilson answered those questions by tossing 203 innings and going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 33 starts. Wilson did lead the league in walks allowed. Still, he allowed just 10 homers all year and showed great durability. The move was certainly a success for the straight edge racer and the Rangers.
After spending 2008 and 2009 away from the major leagues, Lewis returned in a big way in 2010. Although he finished with a 12-13 record, his 3.72 ERA in 201 innings amounted to one of baseball’s biggest surprises. With nearly a strikeout per inning and less than three walks per nine, Lewis’ success was no fluke. He won’t surprise anyone next year, so plan accordingly.
Biggest Bust: Scott Feldman
Feldman enjoyed a breakout season in 2009, going 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts. He came crashing down to earth in 2010 as he went 7-11 with a 5.48 ERA in 22 starts. Feldman’s strikeout rate was poor in 2009 (5.36 K/9), but was even worse in 2010 (4.78). Although he might see some positive regression in 2011, it shouldn’t be much.
2011 Keeper Alert: Neftali Feliz
Feliz completed the opposite transition of C.J. Wilson, as the one-time starting pitching prospect became one of the AL’s best closers. The 22-year-old saved 40 games in 43 opportunities. His strikeout rate dropped from double digits in 2009, but was still better than league average (9.22 K/9). He did a stellar job of limiting walks (2.34 BB/9) and kept the ball in the yard (0.65 HR/9) despite his home stadium. There are talks of him one day resuming his starting role, but regardless of role, his live arm is worth keeping around.
2011 Regression Alert: Tommy Hunter
With a record of 13-4 and an ERA of 3.73, Hunter definitely caught some people’s attention. But really, Hunter is another Scott Feldman waiting to happen given the two pitchers’ very similar peripherals. In fact, Hunter posted an identical strikeout rate of 4.78 Ks per nine innings. He did post a nice walk rate, but gave up nearly 1.5 home runs per nine. In addition to BABIP regression, Hunter also stranded 80.7% of batters. The league average is 72.2%. Let someone else in your league deal with all that regression in 2011.
For more on C.J. Wilson and the Texas Rangers’ rotation checkout Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.
MLB Season In Review: Texas Rangers Hitters
By Tommy Rancel //
Biggest Surprise: Mitch Moreland
When the season started, the Rangers had hoped that one of their young first basemen would take hold of the position and become a fixture in the lineup. They got their wish, just not the name. After Chris Davis’ struggles, Jorge Cantu’s inability to adjust to the AL, and Justin Smoak’s trade to Seattle, Moreland was guy for Texas at first base. In 47 games, he hit .255/.364/.469 with nine home runs. He also showed the ability to take a free pass with an above-average 14.5% walk rate. He did strike out a lot, and his home run-to-fly ball rate is likely unsustainably high. But with no one else stepping up at the position, he is likely to get his fair share of playing time in 2011.
Biggest Bust: Ian Kinsler
A preseason favorite of Bloomberg Sports, Kinsler missed 59 games and spent 69 total days on the DL with an ankle sprain and then a groin injury. When he was healthy, Kinsler hit .286 with a career-high on-base percentage of .382. That said, he hit a career-low nine home runs and his slugging percentage was just over .400. Whether the injuries took a toll on his power, we don’t know, but with such high expectations headed into the season, Kinsler did not live up to the hype in 2010. That said, a healthy Kinsler could bounce back in 2011 to put up big numbers from the keystone. He certainly looked good in Game 2 of the ALDS today, launching a James Shields pitch deep into the left field bleachers.
2011 Keeper Alert: Josh Hamilton
.359/.411/.633 with 33 home runs, 100 RBI, and 95 runs scored. This is what Josh Hamilton did in 2010 despite missing 29 games with injury. It should be enough to win him the AL MVP and a spot on your team next season, even if you’re in an auction league and he sports a high salary. Sure, his batting average was largely inflated by a ridiculous .390 batting average on balls in play, but the power is real and he did lower his strikeout rate. The injuries are a concern, but even if he makes an annual DL stint, the production of the 130-140 games he does play is enough to warrant first-round draft pick consideration.
2011 Regression Alert: Vladimir Guerrero
After hitting a career-worst .295/.334/.460 in 2009 for the Los Angeles Angels, Guerrero rebounded with the Rangers in 2010 to hit .300 with an .841 OPS. Healthy for the first time in a long time, he drove in 115 runs – surpassing 100 RBI for the first time since 2007. While Guerrero could have fallen in the category of surprise in 2010, his value in 2011 is tied directly to his home park. He hit .315 at home with an OPS of .881. On the road his average dropped to .284 and his OPS dipped under .800. If he returns to the Rangers, he should have another good season. If not, buyer beware depending on his landing spot.
For more on Josh Hamilton and the Texas Rangers check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.
Rangers Acquire Jorge Cantu
By Tommy Rancel //
Chris Davis just can’t win. After starting the season as the Texas Rangers’ first baseman, Davis lost his job to top prospect Justin Smoak. Once Smoak was traded to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee, Davis once again became the Rangers’ starter. That has come to an end (again) with Thursday’s acquisition of Jorge Cantu for two minor league pitchers.
You can feel bad for Davis if you want, but the truth is the Rangers are justified in looking for an upgrade – even a marginal one. In 113 plate appearances, the 24-year-old was hitting just .188/.265/.267. After smashing 21 home runs in 113 games last season, Davis is homerless in 2010.
Jorge Cantu should not be confused with a savior at the position, but even in a down year he has been more productive than Davis. Spending most of his time at third base for the Marlins, Cantu hit .262/.310/.409 in 97 games.
While he is new to the American League West, Cantu has had success in the AL before. As a member of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 2004-2005, he hit .289/.318/.507 with 30 home runs and 134 RBI. His peak for Tampa Bay came in 2005, when he hit 28 home runs and drove in a then-team record 117 runs. The next two years were not so productive for Cantu and by mid-2007, the D-Rays traded him to the Cincinnati Reds. After an uneventful half-season in Ohio, he returned to Florida, but this time with the Marlins
Cantu proved to be a solid pickup for Florida. In 2008 and 2009, he combined to hit .283/.336/.462 with 45 home runs and 195 RBI. As mentioned above, this year has been a bit of a downer, but he still has 10 home runs, 25 doubles, and 54 RBI.
One thing that may help Cantu in Texas is the ball park. According to statcorner.com, the Marlins’ Sun Life Stadium is a below-average home run park for right-handed batters. Meanwhile, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is much more homer-friendly to righties.
Cantu is worth a shot in all AL-only leagues. In a standard 12-team mixed league, Cantu is a borderline pickup, unless you’re in need of a quick fix at a corner infield spot.
For more on Jorge Cantu and his new team, the Texas Rangers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office
Colby Lewis’ Run of Excellence
By R.J. Anderson //
Many looked on with apathy when the Texas Rangers signed Colby Lewis to a two-year deal with a club option this past off-season. This very same Lewis had pitched for the Rangers from 2002-2004 with a not-so-good 5.48 ERA in nearly 300 innings. Lewis didn’t find success in short stints as a Tiger or Athletic either and he bolted to the Hiroshima Carp for the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Then it happened. The same pitcher that Baseball America ranked as the 32nd-best prospect in baseball entering the 2003 season emerged. In those two seasons in Japan, Lewis started 54 games, pitched more than 350 innings, held a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 8-to-1(!) and an ERA of 2.82. He struck out more batters than he allowed baserunners. Entering this season, it was hard to peg just how good Lewis could be. After all, Daisuke Matsuzaka had similar success in Japan, and he’s been a pretty average pitcher (ignoring the price tag) during his stint in Boston. Meanwhile, other decent Japanese league hurlers, like Kei Igawa and Kenshin Kawamaki, won’t be in the running for any Cy Young awards in the foreseeable future.
Yet Lewis has persevered and sustained that level of success stateside. In 19 starts for the Rangers, he’s recorded nearly a strikeout per inning. He’s walked only 41 batters too. Why is that impressive? Because in 2003 (the only other season he recorded more than five starts in the majors) Lewis walked 70 batters in about the same number of innings, while striking out 29 fewer batters. He looks nothing like the old Colby Lewis, which makes you wonder: Can he continue to have a 3.52 ERA? Will he continue to pitch this well?
Odds are, his ERA will escalate a bit. Lewis’ home run per flyball ratio is well below league average, despite pitching in a ballpark that makes home runs commonplace. Despite the Rangers’ defense, it’s hard to foresee any Ranger pitcher lasting too long without a bump in the ERA road. That’s not to say Lewis is valueless or should be sold high, just that expecting this exact level of domination heading forward isn’t a good idea.
There is no magic innings mark within a season that determines when it’s OK to assume the ERA will last. Still, unless your fellow league owners value Lewis as an elite or near-elite starting pitcher, he’s a solid hold for the rest of the season.
For more information on Colby Lewis and hundreds of other
players, and for dozens of tools to help you dominate your fantasy
league, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.
Vladimir Guerrero Discovers Fountain of Youth In Arlington
By Tommy Rancel //
A year ago, it seemed Vladimir Guerrero‘s days of being a feared power hitter were numbered. Through a combination of injuries and age, Guerrero’s power numbers took a hit in 2009. He hit 15 home runs and totaled just 31 extra-base hits as injuries limited him to 100 games.
His 2009 slugging percentage of .460 along with his .164 ISO (Isolated power is slugging percentage minus batting average) were the lowest totals since his rookie season of 1997. With limited defensive ability, and a seemingly declining bat, Guerrero took a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers.
The deal has proved to be a blockbuster so far. Vladdy got off to a slow start with the Rangers – at least in terms of power. His .333 batting average (AVG) in April was very good, but he hit just two home runs. His slugging percentage was right back in the .460 area. An OPS of .851 is still good production from the DH spot, but April proved to be just the opening act.
In May, Guerrero exploded for a .330 average, with 10 home runs and 31 RBI. His slugging percentage for the month was a stellar .633 in 109 at-bats. In June, he has added two more home runs and is once again slugging over .630.
So what is behind Guerrero’s return to the top of the power-hitting food chain?
Our first guess would be health. Guerrero missed a game earlier this month after taking a foul ball off his eye, but the back problems that have plagued him throughout his career have been quiet in the early part of 2010. He has played in 58 of the Rangers first 62 games and has even logged some outfield innings along the way.
If you are looking for a fluke in his overall power numbers, you won’t find one. His .568 slugging percentage is identical to his career number. His .230 ISO is slightly lower than his .247 career average. In terms of batted ball data, his .322 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is right in line with his career .319 BABIP. His line drives, groundballs, and flyballs are all within 2-3% of historical values.
Although Guerrero is swinging at 50.2% of pitches outside of the strike zone, he is striking out just 9.5% of the time – a figure that represents the second-lowest single-season total of his career.
While luck doesn’t seem to be a factor for Guerrero, the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington certainly is. Outside of being healthy, playing his home games in the offensively-friendly park has been the biggest reason for Vlad’s resurgence. Guerrero’s new home currently ranks in the top three among American League stadiums in runs scored and home runs.
In 98 plate appearances on the road, the Rangers DH is hitting .272/.306/.424. At home, the 35-year-old is hitting .381/.407/.669 with 10 of his 14 home runs and 10 of his 12 doubles in 150 PAs. In fact, a ******** 20.4% of the flyballs he hits in Arlington have left the yard.
In general, it is good to exercise caution when dealing with such extreme splits, however, because of the park’s offensive nature, Guerrero could very likely sustain the power barrage in Texas. With 47 home dates remaining, Guerrero could put up 10-15 additional longballs in that park alone.
Even if Guerrero’s batting average (which currently hovers around .340) regresses, he is on pace for his ninth career 30-home run season and his 10th 100 RBI campaign. After spending five seasons as a rival of the Rangers, Guerrero is learning that sometimes the grass is greener on the other side.
For more on Vladimir Guerrero and other sluggers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits
Why C.J. Wilson Might Not Be a Sell-High Fantasy Player
by Eno Sarris //
In the case of C.J. Wilson, it’s time to give Tommy Rancel a little credit for identifying him as a possible sleeper in the pre-season (while also illuminating some of the concerns with moving a pitcher from the bullpen to the rotation). Now that Wilson has started out well, the question immediately shifts to his value going forward, and whether or not he is a sell-high candidate. Despite struggling in his last two starts, his year-to-date numbers look strong, as the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tool charts to the right 
show.
At our disposal, we have tools like FIP (fielding independent pitching, which strips out batted ball luck and produces a number on the ERA scale). Wilson’s’ FIP is a decent 3.72. That’s probably the result of his lower strikeout rate (6.75 K/9) and .275 BABIP. While the strikeout rate is barely above average (6.6 K/9), the BABIP is actually less of a concern than usual.
Not all BABIPs are created equal. We talk about how it generally trends toward .300 across baseball, but that presupposes an average defense. Not all defenses are created equal. The Texas Rangers have the fifth-best defense in baseball when measured by UZR/150 – Ultimate Zone Rating. UZR attempts to take player positioning and ball trajectory, as well as home park intricacies, into account when rating defense. With Michael Young moved over to third base, defensive whiz Elvis Andrus doing great glove work – and even young Justin Smoak “Monster” bringing a nice glove with him to the major leagues – the ranking passes the sniff test. Finally, the Rangers as a team have allowed a .290 BABIP. So Wilson’s .275 BABIP may rise, but perhaps not as much as the average pitcher.
We are still left with a precipitous drop in Wilson’s strikeout rate. After setting a career high last year (10.26 K/9), some regression was inevitable due to his change in roles. Now that he’s dropped below his career rate (8.09 K/9), it’s hard to say what’s to come. We know that velocity and effectiveness usually drop with a move to the rotation, as pitchers can’t go all out every pitch for seven innings as a starter than they can for an inning or two as a reliever. Even accounting for those expected declines, though, Wilson’s velocity has fallen more than the average 0.7 MPH gap between starter and reliever (as Jeremy Greenhouse showed in an article last month). In fact, his fastball velocity has dropped 2.9 MPH with the move.
Still, we have a pitcher that has an average walk rate, a barely above-average strikeout rate, and one solid skill on his side. Wilson has continued inducing worm-burning grounders at a good rate (53.3% this year, 53% career), and that can limit the damage, as evidenced by his 0.48 HR/9 rate – it’s hard to get hit out of the park on the ground. While a home run rate that low is usually unsustainable, the nine pitchers that averaged less than 0.6 home runs per nine last year averaged a 49.3% groundball rate.
Of course if you can get a return on Wilson from an owner that values him as an ace, do it. But always consider context. I’m currently in a Blog Wars league where I am about to accept a trade – my Roy Oswalt for his Miguel Montero and C.J. Wilson. I need the offense in this two-catcher deep league, and I don’t think the step down is too steep for my staff to handle. As you can see, the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools trade analyzer likes the trade, an encouraging sign.
For more on C.J. Wilson and possible trade targets, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.
Bloomberg Sports
Recent Comments