Results tagged ‘ Detroit Tigers ’
Detroit Tigers Sign Victor Martinez To 4-yr, $50 Million Deal
By Tommy Rancel //
The Detroit Tigers continue to be the most aggressive team during the early stages of the off-season hot stove. Earlier today, they signed C/1B/DH Victor Martinez to a four-year deal worth a reported $50 million dollars. In addition to the money, the Tigers also surrendered their first-round pick to the Boston Red Sox because of Martinez’s Type-A status.
Martinez will be 32 by opening day 2011; however, he is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. A career .300/.369/.469 hitter, he hit .302/.351/.493 in his first full season with the Red Sox. His patience at the plate dropped slightly, but that coincided with an increase in power numbers.
While it is unlikely he is still an everyday catcher at the end of this contract, one would assume the Tigers’ plan is to have the bulk of his playing time from behind the plate in 2011. They have the AL MVP runner-up in Miguel Cabrera at first base and paying Martinez to DH doesn’t make sense – at least at this point in his career. Sure, he’ll spell Cabrera at times and take a few hacks at DH, but he should be prepared to catch 100+ times in 2011.
This is good news for fantasy owners as Martinez will remain a top player at the position. Along with Joe Mauer and NL Rookie of the Year Buster Posey, Martinez provides a blend of average and power that is a rarity for the position.
There is some concern about him leaving the cozy dimensions of Fenway Park for the spacious Comerica Park; however, it shouldn’t be a huge factor. It is true Fenway is a haven for doubles hitters. In fact, 23 of Martinez’s 32 doubles in 2010 came at home, but the vast outfield in Detroit should lead to its fair share of extra bases as well. According to ESPN’s park factors, Detroit’s park was actually more home run friendly than Boston’s; another good sign for Martinez, who split his 20 home runs equally on the home and road.
The concerns of moving positions shouldn’t be a factor this season. And the change in ballparks isn’t as extreme as one might think. Because of his ability to hit for an average around .300 with upwards of 50 extra-base hits a season as a catcher, Martinez should once again be a primary target of fantasy owners in 2011.
For more on Victor Martinez and the catcher position, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office.
MLB Season in Review: Detroit Tigers Pitchers
By Jonah Keri //
Biggest Surprise: Joel Zumaya
The injury-prone, fireballing right-hander was a wreck in 2009,
walking more than six batters per nine innings and posting an ERA near
5.00. Further removed from his latest breakdown, Zumaya rebounded
impressively this season, slashing his walk rate to 2.58/9 IP and
posting a strikeout-to-walk rate of better than 3:1. His 2.58 ERA was a
boon for fantasy players who wield relief pitchers to help with ratios.
Zumaya suffered a fractured elbow in late June though, costing him the
rest of the season and leaving his owners with only 38.1 innings of
fantasy goodness. Applaud the great comeback, but steer clear of Zumaya
at the draft table next season.
Biggest Bust: Rick Porcello
A 10-12 record and a 4.92 ERA for one of the most highly-touted young
pitchers in the game qualifies as a huge bust. But really, everyone
should have seen it coming. Porcello’s 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA came
despite an abysmal K rate of just 4.69/9 IP. It’s nearly impossible to
see sustained success when you strike out so few batters. Indeed,
Porcello’s 2010 K rate is virtually identical to his 2009 mark. It’s
just that he ran out of luck, his left on base rate plunging and his
batting average on balls in play climbing 30 points. Porcello’s not yet
22, and he actually sliced his walk rate all the way down to 2.1/9 IP
this season. He’s still got upside, just keep your expectations in check
until he starts missing more bats.
2011 Keeper Alert: Max Scherzer
After eight starts this season, Scherzer’s record stood at 1-4 with a
7.29 ERA, making the multi-team trade the Tigers pulled off last
off-season look like a potential bust. Though he’d been unlucky on balls
in play, Scherzer’s strikeout rate was also down sharply from his
stellar 2009 levels, raising concerns of an injury, or at least wonky
mechanics. Sent to Triple-A for two weeks, he straightened himself out,
then proceeded to destroy the American League. His 12-11 record and 3.50
ERA helped plenty of fantasy teams this season. But Scherzer’s
strikeout-inducting stuff (8.46 K/9 IP) could portend much bigger things
down the road, even Cy Young contention.
2011 Regression Alert: Armando Galarraga
People will remember Galarraga’s 2010 Perfect Game That Wasn’t for a
long time. Just don’t let it sway you into speculating on him in
fantasy. Galarraga’s K rate was even worse than Porcello’s this season,
and his walk rate is more than one per nine innings higher than
Porcello’s. The 4.62 ERA looks respectable and the near-perfecto might
tempt you to take a flyer next year. Don’t. His true talent points to a
pitcher whose true ability level suggests ERAs well over 5 in his
future.
For more on Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.
MLB Season in Review: Detroit Tigers Hitters
By Jonah Keri //
Biggest Surprise: Austin Jackson
One could easily make a case for Jackson as a regression candidate,
as his sky-high .399 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable
over the long haul, and suggests a possible pullback from his .295
average this year. But Jackson’s 103 runs scored and 26 steals to go
with the high average gave fantasy owners a big lift, and at just 23
years old, he could see gains in power and speed to help offset that
batting average regression, both next year and beyond.
Biggest Bust: Johnny Damon
We knew Damon’s numbers would pull back significantly from 2009
levels, going from possibly the friendliest park in baseball for his
slashing, left-handed swing to the vast expanses of Comerica Park, and
from the Yankees’ killer lineup to the Tigers’ collection of Miguel
Cabrera and a band of no-names. But the plunge was far more dramatic
than expected: 24 homers, 82 RBI and 107 runs scored in ’09, 8 homers,
50 RBI and 81 runs scored this year. Damon isn’t much of a basestealing
threat anymore either, swiping just 11 bags in 2010. Avoid him at next
year’s draft table.
2011 Keeper Alert: Ryan Raburn
First the negatives: Raburn’s .333 batting average on balls in play
might regress next year, making him a risk for a somewhat lower batting
average. He’s got a sizable platoon split on his track record and could
be vulnerable to tough right-handed pitching if given 600 plate
appearances. And he only qualifies at OF heading into next season. On
the other hand, Raburn should play meet the typical 5- or 10-game
in-season minimums needed to qualify at second base next year, and he’s
swatted 31 homers over about 700 plate appearances in the last two
seasons with the Tigers. Stash him as a cheap keeper at OF or UT, then
slide him to 2B when he qualifies there next year and you’ll have cheap
power at a position that doesn’t have a lot of it.
2011 Regression Alert: None
Miguel Cabrera was the only Tigers hitter to put up big
numbers this season, and he’s in his prime at age 27 and improving by
the year — meaning it’s tough to find a Tigers hitter due for a big
pullback. By the same token, few Tigers performed so poorly relative to
expectations that you’d expect a big positive regression either. You
could be generous and argue that Scott Sizemore is better than
the .224/.296/.336 line he mustered this season. But the man Detroit
originally ticketed for the starting second base job in 2010 sports a
track record of mediocre power and high strikeout rates in the minor
leagues; he may well be unable to hit enough to hold down an everyday
job, let alone help you in even a deeper mixed league.
For more on Austin Jackson and the Detroit Tigers lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy kits.
Ordonez Goes Down, Raburn Comes Up?
by Eno Sarris //
When a player goes down, the first instinct is often to go to the wire and pluck the best year-to-date performer you can off waivers. Sometimes, though, the best move is to look at the real-life team and target the real-life replacement.
When Magglio Ordonez went down this weekend with a fractured right ankle, many fantasy teams (and the real-life Tigers) lost a resurgent run producer. Though he no longer has the gaudy power of yore, Ordonez has used his high (BABIP-neutral) batting average (.303) to plate his teammates (59), while still socking a respectable 12 home runs. Take a look at how Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools values Ordonez’s overall skill set.
Replacing him in the Tiger outfield is a player who couldn’t be any more different, but still has the upside to provide some run production in Magglio’s stead. Ryan Raburn strikes out too much (25.8%) to put up the same superlative batting average, but his .208 AVG should rise if his .262 batting average on balls in play regulates toward his career mark of .314. Raburn still has some potential to make this comparison from the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools look a little better over the next couple of weeks.
In fact, Raburn’s upside is probably defined by his 2009 final slash line (.291/.359/.533), though his BABIP (.323) might have been a little high for a slugger-type with little speed (5/9 in stolen base attempts last year). Look at his minor league numbers, and you see that while he was usually at the average age or older in each league, he did consistently show solid power (.223 career minor league ISO, or slugging percentage minus batting average).
This year? He’s been reaching at 28% of pitches outside of the zone (26% career, 28.9% average across baseball), and walking a little less (5.6% walk rate this year, 7.3% career, 10.4% in the minors). He hasn’t been showing the same power as is his norm, but he’s only 162 plate appearances into this year, and his 831 career PAs with above-average power (.179 ISO, the average is around .150-.155 in any given year) are just more important to valuing him as a player.
Those looking for an Ordonez replacement in deeper leagues should consider Raburn. This might just be his chance to rediscover the abilities he showed just last year, which includes more power upside than the veteran he is replacing. In mixed leagues, though, there are probably surer things out there.
Is Armando Galarraga the Perfect Addition for Your Fantasy Team?
By R.J. Anderson //
With apologies to Ken Griffey Jr., Armando Galarraga is the hot story in the baseball world thanks to Wednesday’s near-perfect game. Whether the call on Jason Donald’s infield single was blown or not is irrelevant for fantasy purposes. The real question is whether Galarraga deserves a spot on your team. Short answer: probably not.
Galarraga broke onto the scene for the Tigers in 2008, making 30 starts. He would win 13 games and post a 3.73 ERA. Most pundits applauded the Tigers and bemoaned the Rangers – Galarraga’s previous employer – for grabbing yet another worthwhile arm. A season later Galarraga fell apart: He still managed to make 29 starts, but won only six games and held a 5.64 ERA. This led some to wonder what exactly went wrong; those who saw Galarraga’s 4.88 FIP in 2008 knew better – he was never all that good in the first place.
That’s not to say Galarraga wasn’t worse than expected last year – his FIP jumped more than a half run up to 5.47 in 2009 – but Galarraga’s skill set fails to inspire confidence in his ability to be an above-average pitcher. He’s a right-handed starter with a fastball that sits at just 90 miles per hour and he’s only a slight groundball pitcher. Generally pitchers with that profile need good command and control to make it in the majors, and Galarraga had never shown that ability in the majors. His career walk rate per nine innings is still over 3.5, giving him a mediocre 1.71 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Getting back to the question at hand, Galarraga has made three starts this season, and has a 2.57 ERA and 3.86 FIP to show for it. He’s turning the corner, right? Don’t be so sure. One near-perfect game goes a long way, especially when it comes in the pitcher’s fourth appearance of the season.
Galarraga just wasn’t all that good in his previous starts this season. Against Boston he went just over five innings and allowed only one run. He made up for that good outing by allowing five earned runs against the Dodgers a week later. All told, he struck out eight batters, walked four, and allowed two homers in 10.1 innings. That’s a 5.34 FIP and 5.24 ERA, more along the lines of what we’d expect from him.
Galarraga’s classiness is worth applauding, given his reaction to umpire Jim Joyce’s blown call. He had a very special night on Wednesday, but unless something has changed for good, he’s just not rosterable in most mixed leagues.
For more on Armando Galarraga and other pitchers who do something amazing, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.
Bloomberg Sports 2010 American League Central Preview
odate such optimism. Even local writers scratch their heads about whether the team has a plan.
Curtis Granderson Will Enjoy Yankee Stadium
A year after making the biggest splash(es) on the free agent market, the New York Yankees went a different route this off-season. One of the biggest moves of the off-season was a three-team, seven-player trade that landed Curtis Granderson in the New York Yankees’ outfield.
Granderson, 29 next month, is now tentatively penciled in as the number-two hitter in a talented Yankees line-up. After hitting 19 home runs in 2006, his first full season, Granderson posted back to back 20-plus home run seasons in 2007 and 2008, then reached the 30-HR plateau for the first time in 2009. For comparison, the major league average for outfielders was 19 in 2009. Take a look at Bloomberg Sports’ time-line based trend chart (bottom right).
There are some concerns about Granderson’s declining batting average (career-high .302 in 2007, .280 in 2008, full-season career-low .249 in 2009). But Granderson has maintained a selective approach, pushing his walk rates over 10% in each of the past two seasons. In addition to the walks, he is due for some positive regression on balls in play. Granderson’s career batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .323. That’s a little above the league average, but not extraordinarily high for a player with good speed. In 2009, though, his BABIP fell to just .276. Expect that number to rebound this season which would in turn improve his batting average.
Another area of concern is Granderson’s platoon splits. For his career, Granderson has hit an impressive .292/.367/.528 (AVG/OBP/SLG) against right-handed pitching, but just .210/.270/.344 vs. lefties. Last season showed an even more extreme split: .275/.358/.539 vs. RH, .183(!)/.245/.239 vs. LH. Still, several baseball analysts have argued that when a player’s platoon splits are as extreme as Granderson’s, there’s plenty of room for regression on both sides.
A true left-handed pull-hitter, Granderson’s slashing, line-drive power is a perfect match for his new home. Yankee Stadium fueled huge numbers for power hitters last year, especially left-handed pull hitters. In 2009, Comerica Park had a home run park factor of .974, the 18th-best figure for hitters in the majors (1.000 is neutral, meaning home runs were suppressed by 2.6%). The launching pad in the Bronx sported a home run factor of 1.261 (i.e. 26% above average), tops in all of baseball.
Looking at Granderson’s power numbers to each field further supports this theory. For his career, Granderson sports a slugging percentage of .510 on line drives and flyballs hit to left field, .556 to center field and a huge .744 to right field. Granderson’s home run-to-flyball ratios tell a similar story. Again moving from left to right field, here are his career HR/FB%: 4.4%, 5.9%, 29.1%(!!!) Nearly one in every three fly balls hit by Granderson to right field have gone for home runs in his career – and that’s without the benefit of Yankee Stadium’s friendly confines.
Of course you can’t mention Granderson without the player he is replacing in the Yankee lineup, Johnny Damon. Like Granderson, Damon’s slashing, left-handed swing was a perfect match for new Yankee Stadium. In his first and only season at the ballpark, Damon tied a career-high with 24 home runs and set a career high in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average).
Playing at old Yankee Stadium in 2008, Damon posted a .684 slugging percentage to right field, with a strong 23.5% HR/FB rate. In 2009, those numbers rocketed to .859 SLG and 31.5% HR/FB to right field. Once we factor in age, defense, contract and the likelihood that Granderson might have more natural power than Damon, you can see why the Yankees made the switch.
Currently, Granderson’s average draft position (ADP) is 56. His B-Rank of 40th overall suggests this is quite a bargain. Looking at the Demand vs. Scarcity chart, you’ll notice that Granderson is in the fourth tier of center fielders. Just to the right of Granderson’s yellow dot is another dot also located on the fourth-tier; this belongs to Grady Sizemore. Currently, Sizemore is being drafted around 13th overall, 43 spots before Granderson. However, Sizmore’s B-Rank of 32 pegs his value just eight spots ahead of Granderson. This means you can pass on Sizemore early, wait until the fourth or fifth round for Granderson, and still receive similar production.
With the expected increase in home-park influenced power, potential BABIP regression, and being in the middle of his perceived physical prime, Granderson’s 2010 season projects to be his best yet. Throw in Granderson’s average of nearly 20 stolen bases a year since ’07 and his impressive blogging skills and you have a must-get player. Draft the man.
For more information on Curtis Granderson and hundreds of other players, and for dozens of tools to help you dominate your fantasy league, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.
–Tommy Rancel
Bloomberg Sports
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