Results tagged ‘ Billy Butler ’

Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Baseball 2012 Recap: First Basemen

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

Bloomberg Sports Anchor Rob Shaw and Analyst Alex Burwasser recap the top five first basemen this fantasy season as well as the top three busts.

TOP FIVE PERFORMERS

5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels

In an offseason move that shocked many, Albert Pujols decided to leave St. Louis, his home for a decade where he won two championships, for the bright lights of Los Angeles in Anaheim. To the delight of jilted Cardinals fans, Pujols got off to a rough start for the Angels, even hearing some cat calls in his home park, but he more than made up for it over his final 105 games where he hit .319 with 26 home runs and 86 RBI. You can make a case that he may not be as dominant a hitter as he once was but he still put up his typical 30-HR, 100-RBI season, which always has fantasy value.

4. Billy Butler, 1B, Royals

Billy Butler has always been a very productive hitter throughout his career for the Royals but has consistently flown under the radar because he plays in relative obscurity in Kansas City. However, this year he was the subject of a national controversy when Robinson Cano decided not to pick him for the Home Run Derby in front of his home fans at Kauffman Stadium. Butler took the high road and did the talking with his bat the rest of the year when he finished with 29 home runs and 106 RBI, both career highs, all while hitting above .300 at .313.

3. Prince Fielder, 1B, Tigers

Much like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder moved from the top of the NL Central to the opposite league in the offseason. Fielder signed a massive nine-year contract which left many worrying about the long-term injury risk of signing a man of his size, but his performance in the first year of that deal quieted all the critics when he blasted 30 home runs and knocked in 108 RBI leading the Tigers to their second consecutive AL Central crown. Though Prince has had more powerful years, he hit over .300 for the first time in his career, checking in at a very impressive .313 on the season.

2. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, Jays

Encarnacion had been a solid player for Toronto since acquiring him from the Reds in 2009, putting up seasons of 20 home runs and a little more than 50 RBI on average in 2010 and 2011. This season, however, he completely obliterated those numbers with 42 home runs and 110 RBI, more in each category than the previous two years combined. In addition, Encarnacion also improved in other categories, setting career highs in stolen bases (13) and walks (84). What makes this rapid improvement all the more impressive is that he did it without Jose Bautista in the lineup who missed about half the year injured. Next year could be very intriguing for the Jays with those two bats healthy and producing in the middle of that lineup.

1. Miguel Cabrera, 1B/3B, Tigers

There really is not much else you can say about the year Miguel Cabrera had for the American League champion Tigers. He was the first Triple Crown winner since 1967 (led the AL in batting average, home runs and RBI) and he did it before the age of 30! In fact, Miguel Cabrera leads all active major leaguers under the age of 30 in hits (1802), home runs (321), and RBI (1123). We are not sure Cabrera is on his way to his second championship ring this year, but it sure looks like he will be on his way to Cooperstown one day.

TOP THREE BUSTS

3. Mark Teixiera, 1B, Yankees

Every year in his career besides his rookie campaign in 2003, Mark Teixiera has had at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI, but not in 2012 when he hit only 24 home runs and knocked in only 84 RBI. Even more alarming for Teixiera is that he has seen his normally stellar batting average drop season after season. A perennial .280, and some years .300, hitter has not reached those numbers since 2009 when he hit .292. The last three seasons he has not hit above .256 including this year when he hit .251 and had a dreadful on-base percentage of .332. For the Yankees, he provides a lot of value with his defense at first base, but for fantasy owners, his value seems to be slipping fast.

2. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Pirates

At the beginning of the year, many picked the Marlins and their revamped team with the acquisitions of Jose Reyes and Heath Bell among others to possibly win the NL East. Gaby Sanchez was one of the players set to contribute in the middle of that lineup, but much like the entire team, he was a gigantic disappointment. After the first 55 games of the season while hitting just above the Mendoza line at .202, Sanchez was sent down to the minors and subsequently traded to Pittsburgh. Though he fared better for the Pirates than for the Marlins, he still finished the year with a .217 average and only seven home runs, a huge dropoff from back-to-back 19 home run seasons in 2010 and 2011.

1. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals

During Spring Training, there was a lot of buzz around the Royals that they may be the team on the rise given their farm system and dearth of young talent. One of the centerpieces of this renewed hope was Eric Hosmer, and after his rookie campaign in 2011, it was easy to believe given that he hit .293 with 19 HR and 78 RBI in only 128 games. Much like his team, Hosmer severely underperformed his expectations this year hitting .232 in his first full season in the majors with less home runs (14) and less RBI (60). You would hope that this is just your classic sophomore slump for the third overall pick in the 2008 draft and 2013 is a year he can replicate or even outperform his 2011 numbers.

For more fantasy insight, visit BloombergSports.com.

MLB Sluggers on the Rise: Eric Hosmer, Jay Bruce, and Paul Goldschmidt

 

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports

 

When it comes to sleepers fantasy managers are often looking for late round picks that could contribute throughout the season.  A more valuable sleeper is the talent who is already drafted in the middle rounds, but has the ability to reach superstar potential.  Kansas City first baseman Eric Hosmer happens to fit that mold of sleeper.

 

The 22-year-old talent was the third overall pick of the 2008 draft.  Last year he earned his first taste of Big League action and he found immediate success.  The Miami native did it all.  He blasted 19 home runs, swiped 11 bases, and offered a .293 average.

 

While Hosmer may be the Royals top young talent, he is not alone.  After several years of struggles, the Royals finally have the making of a top-notch lineup with veterans such as Billy Butler and Alex Gordon joined by Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, amongst others.

 

This season Hosmer should take another step forward and fantasy managers considering drafting Mark Texeira in the first or second rounds are better off scooping Hosmer in the fourth or fifth rounds.  He is more well-rounded than Texeira and could end up offering similar power production as well.  Hosmer is one of the top sleepers in baseball even if you have to draft him in the middle rounds.

 

The Reds already have one megastar in the form of Joey Votto, but there may be another in the lineup.  Jay Bruce actually had more buzz around him when he made his debut than Votto.  The 12th pick of the 2005 draft, Bruce has been in the Big Leagues since he was 21-years old.  While there have been some growing pains over the last few seasons, he has improved, and at 25-years old he should be closer to his prime this season.

 

Bruce has always possessed power.  He already has 100 career home runs before he even turned 25.  Last season was his first reaching the 30-home run plateau, as he slammed 32 round-trippers.  More impressive for his sabermetric fans, Bruce offered great patience at the plate with 71 walks, which made up for his .256 batting clip.

 

One of the streakiest hitters in the game, Bruce blasted 12 home runs with a .342 average in May, but then hit less than .240 in three of the next four months.  Fantasy managers are hoping that another year under his belt will lead to some maturity and consistency at the plate.  Bruce is one of the rare talents who can slam 40 home runs with a .280-plus average.  However, that’s just talk of potential, and when drafting you need to take more into account.

 

He’s already in his mid-20s, but Paul Goldschmidt could end up being a fantasy star as soon as this season.  An eighth round pick out of Texas State, Goldschmidt has been a pleasant surprise in the Diamondbacks farm system.

 

Goldschmidt’s power is legit, as he has slammed 73 round-trippers over the last two seasons.  He also has cut down on his strikeouts and increased his walks the last few seasons.  In his Big League debut, Goldschmidt slammed eight home runs in 48 games.  He also swiped four bases, which is a pleasant surprise for a slugger.

 

While sluggers often take some time to develop in the Big Leagues, Goldschmidt is expected to produce as soon as this season.  BloombergSports.com Front Office projects 30 home runs this season, which could land the Diamondbacks right back in the thick of the hunt for the Division Title.

Top 10 Safest Draft Bargains

By Eriq Gardner //

We’re all familiar with the concept of “sleepers,” players who represent draft day bargains because for whatever reason — a lack of track record, inconsistency, or injury concerns — aren’t going as high in drafts as their potential value.
Let’s be greedy for a second. 
Is it possible to find great players who are both cheap AND represent little risk?
Using the Bloomberg Sports Front Office Tool, I took this year’s list of sleepers (players whose B-Rank outpaces their average draft position) and filtered the group for “Durability” and “Consistency.” What follows are the Top 10 Safest Draft Bargains for the upcoming season:
  1. Josh Johnson
  2. Dan Haren
  3. Brandon Phillips
  4. Billy Butler
  5. Carlos Marmol
  6. Nick Markakis
  7. Joel Hanrahan
  8. Sergio Romo
  9. Rafael Soriano
  10. Daniel Bard

Josh Johnson has a little bit of a reputation for being injury-prone, having a Tommy John surgery a few years back, and missing the last month of last season with shoulder inflammation, but he’s also pitched nearly 400 innings these past two seasons as one of the elite hurlers in the game.

Dan Haren had a rough first half last season, and is known for some streakiness, but he always ends the season in good shape overall, with three consecutive seasons of at least 200 strikeouts, and an ERA in the 3s. He’s moving to the AL this year, but moves to a better pitcher’s ballpark.
Brandon Phillips is never a sexy option. He’s never finished as the top second baseman in baseball, and probably won’t ever. He’s just as consistent as they come in delivering positively in five categories every year.
Billy Butler and Nick Markakis probably represent disappointments to many competitors expecting better power numbers. Last season, each of these players languished in the power department, though it should be noted, they weren’t alone. Nevertheless, both hit in prime positions in the lineup, make good contact with the ball, and hold the promise of a very good average with nice runs and RBIs. The stock drop for the lack of demonstrated power may be a bit of an overreaction.
Carlos Marmol and Joel Hanrahan are two solid closers less favored than the supposedly elite ones in the league, yet both bring something tasty to the table in 2011. For Marmol, it’s his huge strikeout rate. Last season, Marmol had 138 strikeouts, which bested quite a few starters in baseball in nearly a third a starter’s workload. For Hanrahan, he’s probably overlooked because he closes for the Pirates, but he’s another reliever who hit the 100 K mark in 2010 while demonstrating good command and a bright future.
Sergio Romo, Rafael Soriano, and Daniel Bard are probably overlooked because they are middle relievers at the moment, and most competitors would rather take a bad closer than a great reliever who doesn’t get saves. The data says this is bad judgement. Each of these three relievers post ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rates that definitely hold strong value in each of these categories. The prospect of getting saves given a turn of good fortune is just a bonus for these three.

Billy Butler and the Notion of ‘Upside’

By Eriq Gardner

It’s well acknowledged that first base has always been and probably always will be the most offensively productive position. We expect a lot from our first basemen. Because first base is so deep, many people prefer to fill other roster positions on their squad first with the few players who are above average offensive players elsewhere. Especially if it’s possible to find a first baseman a bit later in the draft with the so-called “upside” to match the production of the first few first basemen taken.

Let’s flash back a couple years to the beginning of the 2008 season, when two highly touted first baseman arrived on the scene. We’re talking about Billy Butler of the Kansas City Royals and James Loney of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Both came into the league with an extremely similar offensive profile: Elite batting eyes and questions over power potential.
Many people assumed that it was just a matter of time and maturity before Butler and Loney would transform their doubles into home runs. Only Nostradamus knew if we were talking 20-HR potential, 25-HR potential, 30-HR potential, or more for each.
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Last year, Butler made a solid leap forward, going from 11 HR to 21 HRs. Meanwhile, Loney didn’t go anywhere, reproducing his 13 HR line from the year before.
People like to look at trends and assume they will continue. So despite finishing 11 HRs short of Michael Cuddyer, Billy Butler is now viewed as having the upside to improve, whereas the opinion on James Loney is stuck in the mud. As a result, Butler has zoomed up to about the 6th to 8th round, whereas Loney has slipped down to about the 15th round in a 12-team mixed league.
But let’s take another look at last year. 
Here’s Bloomberg Sports’ value meter on the 2009 production of first basemen. As you’ll see, Butler hardly separated himself at all from Loney when we take all five offensive categories into account.
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By this measure, Butler finished as the 170th-best player in baseball in 2009. Loney finished one slot below as the 171st player. Those six extra steals by Loney seem to have erased much of the advantage Butler had over him in the other categories.

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There’s no doubt that Butler’s 21 HRs showed progress. His power growth is fully supported by a strong batting eye, more fly balls, and a better FB/HR rate.
However, for a first baseman, he’ll need to develop even more. The only category he’s thus far demonstrated above-average production compared to his positional peers is batting average. That gives him a pretty high floor as opposed to someone like Chris Davis. But does it give him “upside”?
We must again look at his average draft position. According to ESPN’s draft results, he’s going ahead of players like Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and Cuddyer. To justify this position, given the projections of the other players, Butler will need to hit at least 27 HRs, maintain a .300 batting average, and improve his run production in a woeful Kansas City Royals lineup. These things might happen, of course. But anybody drafting Butler at his current price should realize they are paying full price for that very expectation.
In other words, it’s hard to see Butler as a true “sleeper,” no matter what the crowds might think, and it’s hard to figure that Butler has more investment upside than investment risk. He’s a good player. Just not deserving of this draft valuation quite yet.
In the meantime, few are figuring James Loney for a power breakout this season, and odds say it’s less than 50% likely it’s going to happen in 2010. However, even if we peg the probability of Loney reaching 20-25 HR at just 25%, given both his current draft position and the fact that he’s coming off a season where he nearly matched Butler in value, he’s the one with the real “upside” here.
For more on Billy Butler, James Loney, and other first basemen, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits
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