Tagged: Tim Hudson
Ballpark Figures: Hall of Fame Predictions Part One
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw discuss players who they think will definitely be inducted into the Hall of Fame and players who are debatable.
Definites
Based on his statistics, Manny Ramirez should be a Hall of Famer. He has 2574 hits, 1831 RBI and 555 home runs in his career. He is a 12-time All-Star and has two World Series rings (’04, ’07) and nine Silver Slugger awards. However, his use of PEDs has tarnished his statistics and will keep him out of the Hall of Fame.
Though Albert Pujols is struggling a bit this season with the Angels, he has already cemented a spot in the Hall of Fame. He has 2,142 hits, 456 home runs and a .325 batting average in his career. He is a three-time MVP (’05, ’08, ’09) and a nine-time All-Star and has won two World Series (’06, ’11), six Silver Slugger awards and two Gold Glove awards.
Like Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki‘s numbers are down this season, but he deserves induction into the Hall of Fame based on his past performances. He has 2,504 hits, 432 stolen bases and a .323 average in his career. The 10-time All-Star also won MVP and Rookie of the Year honors in 2001 and has earned 10 Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers.
Derek Jeter is another player who is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. The 12-time All-Star has 3,177 career hits, 344 stolen bases and a .313 career average, as well as five Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers. Above all, he is a big-time winner with five World Series rings.
Chipper Jones, set to retire at the end of this year after 19 seasons, is certainly Hall of Fame-bound. He has 2,650 hits, 459 home runs and a .304 average in his career, in addition to an MVP award (’99), seven All-Star selections and two Silver Sluggers.
Alex Rodriguez, a 14-time All-Star and three-time MVP, is another player whose Hall of Fame candidacy is in question due to PEDs. However, it can be argued that after the steroid era ended, A-Rod still put up good enough numbers to warrant induction. He has 2,841 career hits and 640 home runs, and is 76 RBI away from 2000 for his career. He has one World Series ring (’09), 10 Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves.
Jim Thome is headed for the Hall of Fame with his 608 career HR. The five-time All-Star has had 12 seasons of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI but he is not just a home-run hitter. He has 1,710 walks, ranking 10th all-time.
Mariano Rivera is another player already in the Hall of Fame. He is the all-time saves leader with 608 and has a 2.21 career ERA, good for 13th all-time. He is the greatest closer of all time and one of the most clutch performers in sports. Despite being 42 years old, Rivera was as good as ever before his season was cut short by a torn ACL.
Questionable
Jamie Moyer sits at 269 wins as he is currently pitching in AAA and trying to make another comeback, this time with the Baltimore Orioles. If he returns shortly and assuming he pitches every fifth day, he could potentially start 19 games and could pick up the six wins he needs to reach 275 for his career. If the 49-year-old can somehow keep pitching into his fifties, he could have a shot at 300 wins and the Hall of Fame.
Johnny Damon‘s easiest path to the Hall of Fame is to get another 254 hits to reach 3,000 for his career. If he gets just 54 more hits and 17 more home runs, he would join Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds and Craig Biggio as the only players to have 2,800 hits, 250 home runs and 400 stolen bases. At the moment, he is one of five players to have 230 home runs, 400 stolen bases and 2,700 hits.
Scott Rolen is one of three third basemen to hit above .280 and hit 300 or more home runs, and one of four third basemen to have 8,000 or more plate appearances and an OPS of .850 or better. At 37 years old, if Rolen can collect 77 hits the rest of this season and average 100 hits over the next four years or 133 hits over the next 3 years, he would reach 2,500 hits. In addition to his defense, position and more than 300 HR, he would have a very strong candidacy.
Todd Helton‘s chances to make it into the Hall of Fame may be hurt by playing at Coors Field. However, if the 38-year-old can hit 46 more home runs over the next five years, he’d reach 400 home runs and have a strong case with 2,500 hits and 400+ home runs, a feat only 25 Major Leaguers have accomplished. He has hit 227 home runs at home and just 138 home runs on the road, so he may need to do more than most for people to believe in his Coors-tainted candidacy.
Vladimir Guerrero needs just 51 home runs to reach 500 for his career. Among players with at least 8,000 career plate appearances since 1950, his average of .318 ranks sixth behind Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Ichiro Suzuki and Todd Helton. he is one of only seven players in history with at least 350 home runs, a batting average of at least .310 and at least 2,500 career hits. Among the six others, only Manny Ramirez is not already in the Hall of Fame.
If Lance Berkman stays healthy and plays into his early 40s, he has a shot at reaching 500 home runs. If he can hit nine home runs the rest of this season, he’ll have 132 to go, which would mean four full seasons at his career pace of 33 per 162 games.
Tim Hudson has one of the 10 lowest ERAs of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1990 and is tied for the fourth-most wins among active pitchers with 185. He also has the lowest home-run rate of any pitcher with at least 2,000 innings pitched since 1950.
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Top 5 Fantasy Pitchers of the Week: Wilson, Gorzelanny, Price, Hudson, and Garcia
1) Brian Wilson
2 wins, 3 saves, 7 K’s, 5 IP, 0 R (9 Straight shutout apps)
2) Tom Gorzelanny
2 wins, 15 IP, 10 K’s, 1.20 ERA(2.87 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
3) Jaime Garcia
1 win, 9 IP, 8 K’s, 0 R, 0.33 WHIP (4-0, 1.99 ERA)
4) David Price
1 win, 8.2 IP, 10 K’s, 0 R, 0.46 WHIP (3.26 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
5) Tim Hudson
1 win, 9 IP, 6 K’s, 0 R, 0.22 WHIP (2.86 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
As far as the historic performances, have some more confidence in Francisco Liriano and Yovani Gallardo, they are good pitchers off to bad starts. Justin Verlander is an absolute star and that’s why he was often my top pitcher in fantasy drafts.
MLB Season in Review: Atlanta Braves Pitchers
By Eno Sarris //
Biggest Surprise: Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner
Both have been good for a long time, but Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner both surpassed expectations this year in their returns from Tommy John surgery. Wags found his old strikeout punch, to the tune of more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings, while Hudson focused more on getting the ground ball (64.7%, best in baseball). Because of their ages (Hudson is 35, Wagner 39), they might not make great keepers – especially with Wagner reportedly retiring – but they put in great work this year.
Biggest Bust: Jair Jurrjens
Jair Jurrjens is the clear bust for the Braves. He was injured for much of the year and could finish the season with only 20 starts, an ERA near 5.00, and the ire of fantasy owners everywhere. The thing is, Jurrjens really put up some of the same fundamental stats in 2010 that he did in 2009. His strikeout, walk and groundball rates were all similar in those two years. Instead, his luck and health went south this year. He’s an interesting bounce-back sleeper candidate late in 2011 drafts.
2011 Keeper Alert: Tommy Hanson
The one clear keeper on this pitching staff is Tommy Hanson. He has a strong three-pitch arsenal, cut his walks from his rookie to sophomore years, and features an above-average strikeout rate for a starter. Still, he showed much better strikeout punch in the minor leagues and could have further upside in 2011. In the bullpen, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel are both interesting young arms, but Venters is much better against lefties than righties, Kimbrel is a little wild, and their veteran competition for the closer’s role next year is still TBD.
2011 Regression Warning: Tim Hudson
Tim Hudson, at 35, showed his best groundball rate of his career. That probably won’t happen again next year, meaning his lower strikeout rate could produce an ERA a run higher next year.
Tim Hudson: Comeback Kid
By Erik Hahmann
Seeing Hudson go in for Tommy John surgery was troubling to his fantasy owners, and to the Braves. But the elbow replacement surgery carries strong recovery rates. In seven starts after returning from Tommy John last season, Hudson showed signs of a healthy recovery, posting an impressive 3.47 xFIP (a stat which strips out the effects of bad luck, defense, bullpen support, aberrant HR/FB rates, and other factors).
Hudson was ranked in the one-star group, with names like Carl Pavano, Gil Meche and rookie Brian Matusz, all of whom Hudson could easily outperform this season. Continuing his late-season dominance from last year, Hudson was dominant this spring, putting up a 1.35 ERA while striking out 17 batters and walking just 3 in 20 IP. While you must take spring training stats with a grain of salt, they can be instructive for young players, and especially for players trying to prove themselves after an injury. According to Braves catcher Brian McCann: “He look[ed] great. He’s putting his pitches right where he wants them. He’s definitely ready for the season.”
The 11-win total should be easily reachable now that the Braves have added more firepower in the forms of Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus to an already talented lineup. The defense behind Hudson as improved as well, with Heyward in right field, Melky Cabrera (career 4.0 UZR in LF) seeing time in left, and Garret Anderson (-16.5 UZR last season) no longer on the roster.
Hudson’s 2010 debut was an impressive one: 7 innings, 2 runs, 3 hits and no walks. A couple of caveats apply. First, he was facing the Giants, who have only one elite hitter in their entire lineup in Pablo Sandoval. Second, Hudson only struck out two batters in his inaugural 2010 start. Still, his best indicator of success, aside from his pinpoint, no-walk control, was his impressive groundball rate: Fourteen of the 21 outs Hudson rang up Friday against San Francisco came via groundballs. That’s a great sign for a pitcher who’s thrived on worm-burners his whole career.
Hudson’s probably owned in even the shallowest leagues, and his value spiked after his opening start, such that targeting him in trade now doesn’t make much sense. But if you already own him, resist the temptation to sell high. Unless someone bowls you over with an offer, hang onto Hudson and give him a chance to put up a big season.
Bloomberg Sports 