Tagged: Jed Lowrie

May 4, 2011

What to Do About Third Base

by Eno Sarris //

This past week has been a tough one for the third base position. Ryan Zimmerman underwent abdominal surgery and will be out up to another six weeks. Pablo Sandoval will miss at least that much time with a broken hamate bone. David Freese also broke his hand. Scott Rolen is having shoulder issues. Ian Stewart was sent down to the minor leagues. Pedro Alvarez is struggling with the whiff. If you have multiple teams, odds are you are looking for a third baseman in at least one league. We’ll break down some options here, tiered by league depth, so that you can sort through the mess.

Shallow Leagues
It’s hard to know exactly which players are available on your waiver wire, but chances are, if you’re in a ten-teamer, Chase Headley is out there for you. Ideally, you’d like to play him against righties and away from home – so if you can platoon him in this manner, go ahead. As a batter, Headley has made some strides. He’s showing the best walk rate of his career and his power is up from last year. He has a lifetime BABIP of .330, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a little luckier on balls in play despite owning a current .301 BABIP. By the end of the year, Headley should be hitting around .260 with double digit home runs and steals, so he’s a decent stop-gap player. Of course, if you are lucky enough to find Chipper Jones on your waiver, he’s a much better option. But Headley’s no bum. Finally, the best option is probably Jed Lowrie, who made his fifth start (eighth game) at the position on Tuesday night. If he’s available and eligible, he’s your man.

Standard Mixed Leagues
Edwin Encarnacion is doing everything he’s always done in terms of his plate discipline and hit trajectory stats, but the power hasn’t been there. It’s a little much to ask him to recover his power so soon after a wrist injury, but that might be what you are stuck with. If power is your sole goal, you may want to go with Ian Stewart, who is now back in the major leagues. In interviews he has practically demanded that he play every day. If the team allows him that – it’s not like Jose Lopez is a better option (with his 1 OPS+!), and Ty Wigginton is also a flawed player – he could go back to striking out a little less than a third of the time, which would probably result in an Encarnacion-ish .250 batting average with power. If every hit counts, Danny Valencia has had bad luck so far this season and should at least be able to hit .265 or so going forward.

AL- and NL- Only Leagues
In these leagues, you’re mostly just screwed. In my 11-team AL-only, the best waiver option is either Omar Vizquel or Matt Tolbert. I’d take Tolbert, mostly just because he’s playing often because of the current state of the Twins infield. If Andy LaRoche is available in your league, he’s been seeing more time for the Athletics and has been acquitting himself well. On the NL side, Mike Fontenot is getting more playing time at shortstop and, because of his position eligiblity, actually create some trade value for himself by stealing the starting shorstop role in San Francisco while your third baseman is out. That’s how bad Miguel Tejada has been this year. Over with the Reds, Daniel Descalso is probably the man taking over for Freese right now, but watch Allen Craig if he’s available, as he’s the best bat in this paragraph – but he’ll have to build up eligibility at the positon, most likely.

Third base is hurting right now, literally and figuratively. Hopefully some of these free agent options will help you survived until you get your third baseman back.

For more check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2011.

February 11, 2011

What To Watch In Spring Training

By Eriq Gardner //

This is an exciting time for baseball nuts. In just a few days, players will be arriving at spring training to begin preparing for a new season.

The arrivals will be greeted by a lot of cliches. Beat writers for newspapers need something to write about from spring training camps, and so we’ll begin to see headlines touting a player is in the “best shape of his life” with weight loss or muscle gains or off-season laser-eye surgery or a new off-season conditioning routines like yoga, ballet, or swimming. The evidence is little that any of these things will make much of a difference.

Nor do the actual spring training games matter very much either. There’s been some studies to suggest there’s some carryover effect on players who increase their slugging percentage by a significant amount in the early going, but for the most part, don’t expect to see breakouts or busts in the making.

That’s not to say, however, that spring training can’t influence the valuation on players. We’d classify three major categories as having an effect on where players go in fantasy baseball drafts.

(1) Injuries

Obviously, any player who gets injured during spring training necessitates caution. Injuries also open up the door for other players to get playing time (see below).

Then, there are the players who are coming off of injury who we’re all eager to see return to action. They need to prove something to us.

For example, Justin Morneau suffered a serious concussion in July that knocked him out of the season. Reportedly, he’s only just started to swing a batter. Worrisome quote from Twins GM Bill Smith on Morneau’s return: “We have pledged patience, and we only want him to go when he’s ready…If that’s March 1, April 1 or July 1, that’s what it will be.”

Seeing Morneau in action will go a long way towards soothing owners and would-be owners in fantasy leagues. He’s was in the midst of his finest season when he got hurt, which would make him a steal in the fourth or fifth round, but also makes him a huge risk too, if he’s going to miss significant time.

(2) Trades, Cuts, Signings

For the most part, we won’t see many major roster shakeups over the next month. Most general managers had all off-season to contemplate their rosters. However, there’s always some situations to keep a watchful eye upon.

For example, will the Texas Rangers trade Michael Young? Reportedly, that’s what they were privately exploring, and when word leaked out, Young himself demanded a trade. Of course, that will only happen if the team finds a partner willing to pick up his big contract.

Where Young ends up will sharply influence his value. He’s coming off a nice season of 21 HRs, 99 Runs, and 91 RBIs, and still holds eligibility at 3B — which isn’t very deep this season. But Young’s ISO% at .160 is barely above Martin Prado‘s, meaning if Young leaves the cozy confines of the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, the 34-year-old could find his power totals dipping quickly. For now, Bloomberg Sports projects 17 HRs and will make an update if a trade happens.

(3) Playing Time

This may be the most important aspect of spring training. Which young players are going to show enough to push themselves into regular starting spots? Which older players will struggle and find themselves on the bench?

One situation that bears watching, for example, is in Boston at the shortstop position. Marco Scutaro had a decent first season for the team in 2010 with a .275 batting average and 92 runs, but he’s 35 years old and offers almost no power and speed.

Meanwhile, Jed Lowrie was phenomenal in the latter part of last season when he came back from a wrist injury and mononucleosis and had to fill in at 2B for Dustin Pedroia, who was lost for the year with his own injury. In just 171 ABs, Lowrie had 9 HRs and a .287 batting average. Among players eligible at SS with at least 150 at bats, only Troy Tulowitzki had a higher OPS. Yes, Lowrie bested Hanley Ramirez there.

Shortstop talent is thin, so any news that Lowrie had unseated Scutaro would make a big impact in fantasy baseball drafts.

…

For the most part, we won’t see many value shake-ups in the next month, but have an eye on the exceptions. Depending on the timing of a draft, there’s both profit and risk to being a bit ahead of the game.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

October 11, 2010

MLB Season in Review: Boston Red Sox Hitters

By Eriq Gardner //

Biggest Surprise

Adrian Beltre signed a one-year deal last off-season and had an outstanding comeback year. The move from pitcher-friendly Safeco in Seattle to hitter-friendly Fenway in Boston was incredibly kind to the third baseman. Beltre hit 28 HR, the second-highest total in his 13-season career. Beltre also hit .321, the fourth-best mark in the American League.

Biggest Bust

Jacoby Ellsbury entered the season having swiped a combined total of 120 bags in his rookie and sophomore years. In 2010, the outfielder came nowhere close to fulfilling expectations, thanks largely to significant injuries. And when he did play, he wasn’t very productive. In 78 at-bats this season, Ellsbury only hit .192. However, given better health and better fortune on balls hit into play, Ellsbury should be able to bounce back strongly next season.

2011 Keeper Alert

In deeper leagues Jed Lowrie makes an interesting play, since good talent at shortstop is hard to come by these days. In 2010, Lowrie overcame an early injury and performed extremely well after being called up in late July. In 197 plate appearances, Lowrie hit nine home runs and sported a mighty impressive ratio of 25 walks to 25 strikeouts. A former Baseball America top 100 prospect, Lowrie has the upside to be a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia.

2011 Regression Alert

We could point to Beltre’s high BABIP or Ellsbury’s low BABIP, but instead let’s consider health as the key point of future regression. This season, the Red Sox experienced tremendous bad luck on the injury front. The team suffered season-ending injuries to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis — three of the team’s most valuable batters. The misfortunes contributed to Boston’s inability to make the playoffs. Given better health, the Red Sox as a whole may score more runs in 2011, padding batters’ counting stats.

For more on Red Sox hitters, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.