By R.J. Anderson //

The Rays season has been remarkable. After starting 0-6 while losing Evan Longoria to injury and Manny Ramirez to retirement, Tampa Bay has somehow rebounded and is fighting it out with the Yankees for first place in the early stages of May. Five players in particular are having standout beginnings—but are they for real?

1. Ben Zobrist

2. James Shields

3. Kyle Farnsworth

4. Matt Joyce

5. Casey Kotchman

Zobrist is mystifying. After a power-laced 2009, his 2010 was a shot back to reality—or at least it appeared. Now, Zobrist is back to hitting for power with an ISO that exceeds his 2009 tally (.282 versus .246). Zobrist’s batting average on balls in play is higher than usual (.313 as opposed to a career .280 mark), but his home run per flyball rate matches his 2008-2009 total (around 17-18 percent), so there is some reason to think he can continue to hit for home runs, even if his batting average slips.

After a rough 2010, Shields is back to being Shields. Always solid, Shields has embraced a new style of pitching by leaning heavily on his secondary offerings earlier in the count. The results so far have led to a reduced home run rate and a tick more groundballs. Expecting Shields to only give up a home run every 18 or so innings is a bit much moving forward, but he should finish with at least 12-to-15 victories.

There were questions over whether Farnsworth could handle a closing gig, but so far everything has been fine. In fact, Farnsworth went the entire month of April without walking a single batter (although his first walk came at a poor time—with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in a tied game). Farnsworth is unlikely to hold down an earned run average below 0.75 all season, but is on a good pace to top 30 saves.

Meanwhile, Joyce has been one of the best hitters in the American League so far. He is doing it all—hitting for average, power, and getting on base. Joyce isn’t going to keep up the 956 OPS pace all year, but he will get all the starts against righties and a few against select lefties. Think of him as the AL version of Seth Smith and grab him if he is available.

As good as those guys have been and project to be, avoid Kotchman if possible. Kotchman’s early season line might look like a renaissance, but in reality, he is the same guy as before. A groundball fiend, Kotchman isn’t reliable for power output, and although his batting average on groundballs is holding steady so far, it exceeds his career output and league average by enough to think regression will knock his value down multiple pegs. Maybe take a chance on him in an AL-only league, otherwise, be weary of trying to ride a hot hand.

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Umpires, Concussions & Evan Longoria

Hosts: Robert Shaw and Wayne Parillo

Behind the Numbers is a series of conversations and discussions with blog, sabermetric, and fantasy experts.

Watch the entire episode, or use the links below to jump to the exact point you want:

• The Full Episode

Guest: Jeff W Zimmerman

Writer Fangraphs.com and Royalsreview.com. Follow him at @jeffwzimmerman

• Rob Shaw graduates! 0:35 – 0:49
• Umpire Projections, small strike zones and what you can learn from them 0:55 – 3:08
• Injury Projections – how 40% of pitchers will go down 3:21 – 4:53
• Will there be a pitcher contract limit 5:01 – 7:28
• Power Pitchers v Breaking ball pitchers & Starters v Relievers 7:29 – 8:56
• Concussions – what the data tells us after players come back 9:15 – 12:34
• Aging & Derek Jeter 13:00 – 14:53
• How will Evan Longoria & his “young player with old player skills” translate? 15:00 – 16:09
• Why Rays Fans will Be Mad 16:09 – 17:32
• The Credits 17:32 – the End

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• Bloomberg Sports
• Rob Shaw
• Wayne Parillo

According to Bloomberg Sports, these are the pitchers who most often throw a first pitch strike:

Roy Halladay	73%
Michael Pineda	72%
Kyle Lohse	70%
Cliff Lee	69%
Chris Capuano	69%
Bronson Arroyo	69%
Brad Bergesen	69%
Ricky Nolasco	68%
Jeremy Guthrie	67%
Jason Vargas	67%

Another week means another round of changes at the closer position. The most volatile position in baseball has lived up the reputation this season. Even though we are still in the early stages of May, 39 different relievers have registered multiple saves in 2011. With the injuries to Jonathan Broxton and Brandon Lyon, that number will soon go over 40.

Broxton has been up and down as the Dodgers’ closer for quite some time. After temporarily losing the position last season, he has struggled to keep a firm grip on in thus far. An MRI showed no structural damage to his right elbow; however, revealed bone spurs and some bruising. Broxton will take a few weeks before throwing again which means his return will be longer than the 15 days he is required to miss.

With Hong-Chih Kuo returning from injury and Kenley Jansen continuing to struggle with wildness, the Dodgers will turn to former starter Vicente Padilla in the ninth. Padilla, 33, has started 237 career games and just three saves (2 came back in 2000 season). After starting 23 times for the Dodgers over the past two seasons, he has converted in to a full-time reliever in 2011.
In six appearances, he has allowed just one run and two hits in six innings of work. As a reliever, Padilla is throwing a bit harder, but we’ll see how he handles the conversion with more time. Don Mattingly did not hesitate to give the ball to Padilla, so his job seems safe for the foreseeable future.

The MRI results were not so kind to Houston Astros closer Brandon Lyon. After experiencing some weakness in his arm, an MRI showed Lyon had a partially torn rotator cuff, however, it will not require surgery at this time. Lyon had allowed nine run on 21 hits in just 11.1 innings of work.

In his place, Mark Melancon will handle the closing duties. The former New York Yankee came into 2011 with just 37.2 innings of major league experience. He already has 19 appearances with the Astros and earned his first career save this week.

Melancon throws a fastball in the mid-90s and racks up a lot of groundballs. This is a nice trait to have when you pitch in a home run friendly ballpark. The role is a temporary one right now, but considering Lyon’s struggles and the severity of the injury, Melancon could see an expanded look at the back end of the bullpen.

Both Padilla and Melancon are solid options if your team needs some bullpen help. Padilla pitches for the better team which means more save opportunities. Meanwhile, Melancon has the chance to get a longer look. If you need a quick boost in saves, Padilla is the choice. If you went cheap on closers in your draft and are looking for a long-term option, Melancon has more potential for that.

–Tommy Rancel

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com