Three Fantasy Sleepers, and An Injury Report on Jeter, Santana, and Zimmerman

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox

After a slow start to the season Jarrod Saltalamacchia is red-hot for the Red Sox.  He is batting .400 this month with a home run, two doubles, and a triple.  His season average is now a respectable .252 with five home runs.  Remember, as bad as he was early in the season, Salty was once a mega prospect who was traded for Mark Teixiera.  He may never reach that potential, but if he can hit .280 with 15 home runs in Boston, the run production will pile up.  My only warning is that his defense is still not very good, so it will remain a platoon with Jason Varitek. 

 

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies

Lost in the rookie rush a few days ago was the call-up of Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon.  A former second round pick out of Georgia Tech, the 24-year old has the highly sought combination of power and speed.  He was hitting .337 in Colorado Springs with 10 home runs and 12 steals.  With Dexter Fowler injured, Blackmon will enjoy a shot at playing everyday.  If he contributes, look for him to become an everyday player, which means tons of fantasy value. 

 

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Indians

Before the season began we asked Jay Levine from LetsgoTribe.com who was the top hurler on the staff and he surprised us with Carlos Carrasco.  At first we questioned his call since Carrasco was just 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA through six starts into the season, but since then, Carrasco has gone 5-1 while lowering his ERA to 4.09.  He has not allowed a run in either of his two starts while fanning season highs six and then seven batters.  What was most impressive about his last win was that it came in Yankee Stadium against the hot-hotting Bombers.  At just 24 years old, Carrasco is a great long-term investment. 

 

Injuries-

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals

After more than a month on the DL, Ryan Zimmerman will be activated to play tonight.  Zimmerman was batting .357 through eight games when he got hurt.  His presence should help the entire lineup that has struggled to replace their third baseman as well as their injured first baseman Adam LaRoche. 

 

Johan Santana, SP, Mets

The idea was for the Mets to simply be competitive for the next few weeks until David Wright, Ike Davis, and Johan Santana returned.  Well it looks like Johan is not on the path to recovery as fast as we all thought.  He has been dealing with soreness and now at the earliest, the Mets ace will not make it back until August.  By then, a lot of his teammates could be traded. 

 

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees

What does it mean that Derek Jeter is nearing 3,000 hits.  Sure, he’s an all-time great, but he is also really old at 36-years old.  Well age may have gotten the better of him this week as he strained his calf.  This makes the guessing game even harder to play about when he will hit number 3,000.  My guess is that because of his age the Yankees will be conservative and place him on the DL, though this could end up being just a day-to-day issue.  My guess is that the New York media will keep you updated on his status. 

 

What To Do With Alex Rios

Alex Rios continues to be head-scratcher for fantasy owners. Blessed with five-tool talent, Rios has shown flashes of brilliance along with extended periods of little to no production. After a poor 2009 season, Bloomberg Sports pegged Rios as a rebound candidate in 2010. He responded by hitting .284/.334/.457 with 21 home runs and 34 stolen bases.

Once again, he looked like a rare combination of power and speed that could provide value in extra-base hits, steals, and runs scored. That was until the 2011 season started. Thus far, Rios is hitting just .211 with a .573 OPS. He has been one of the worst everyday players in the majors despite hitting in an offensively friendly environment. That being said, he is a prime target if you like getting players who are worth more than their current value.

Accompanying his career-low .211 batting average is also a career-worst .224 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Far too often people will look at a player’s BABIP and make a case for good or bad luck based on that one metric alone. In this case, it does appear Rios has been unlucky. Here is why…

In terms of batted-ball data (line drives, groundballs, flyballs) Rios is largely the same hitter he has always been. Looking at line drives – the type of balls that fall most for hits – he is actually hitting more liners this year than he did in 2010. This could be some classification bias as liners are sometime misclassified as flyballs and vice versa; however, all of his rates are within career norms.

In addition to the batted-ball information, Rios is showing similar plate discipline. His walk rate is in line with his career number and he has actually cut down his strikeout rate quite a bit. He is also making more contact and whiffing on fewer pitches.

According to the pitch values listed on Fangraphs.com, Rios has struggled with fastballs this year. As a player hits the other side of 30, this could be a concern. Meanwhile, Rios continues to make contact with heaters so it doesn’t appear as if his bat has slowed up enough to be a legit concern right now.

Like 2009, there is a chance that Rios’ slow start turns into a season-long slump. On the other hand, there are signs to point in the direction of positive regression. If you can get Rios at his lowest, the potential reward of that batting average regression – which also means potential increases statistics like steals and runs – outweighs whatever little value you have to toss back to his current owner.

Bloomberg Sports Waiver Report: Niese, Uehara, Norris, Villanueva, Venters

Koji Uehara, RP, OriolesHe may not have any saves so far this season, but Koji Uehara remains the most underrated reliever in baseball. Why? How about a 2.20 ERA and startling 0.80 WHIP? Throughout his career, Uehara boasts 138 K’s to just 23 walks, and the ratio is 35:6 this season. He doesn’t let anyone on base, which minimizes the damage. He won’t help in wiuns or saves, but in ERA, WHIP, and K’s, Uehara is a must add.

Jon Niese, SP, MetsEveryone is talking about Mets rookie Dillon Gee and his splendid 7-0 record, but the better pitcher in my mind is southpaw Jon Niese. Ignore the 5-5 record, Niese has won four of his last five decisions. Over his last five starts Niese has surrendered just five earned runs, cutting his ERA from 5.03 to just 3.51 this season. Niese also gets plenty of K’s, making a solid fantasy pickup.

Bud Norris, SP, AstrosIf in need of a short-term pickup, get to know Astros right-hander Bud Norris. Despite a 4-4 record, Norris is a strikeout artist who averages a K per inning. He also has won his last two starts and on Tuesday has a favorable match-up against the Pirates. Norris is a fine start at home, where his record is 12-8 with a 3.76 ERA.

Carlos Villanueva, SP/RP, Blue JaysA long-time middle reliever for the Brewers, Carlos Villanueva is enjoying a second crack at starting with the Blue Jays. The 27-year old veteran enters the week with a 4-0 record and 3.09 ERA. Most impressively, Villanueva boasts a 0.99 WHIP due to a .196 opposing average. I don’t view this success as long-term, but more a result of the opposition not being familiar with the long-time National Leaguer.

Jonny Venters, RP, BravesWhile I pointed to Koji Uehara as the most underrated reliever in baseball, the best one these days is Braves eighth inning option Jonny Venters. The southpaw dominated last season to the tune of a 1.95 ERA and 93 K’s in 83 innings. He has actually improved this season, allowing just two runs to score in 40.2 innings. He has recently enjoyed some save opportunities with Craig Kimbrell struggling. He is a must-add in deep leagues, though odds are he has already been taken.

Phillies and Royals, Polar Opposites

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Kansas City Royals are polar opposites. The Phillies stand atop the NL East with a 37-26 record, while the Royals sit in 4th place in the AL Central with a 27-36 record. Yet, there are more to both teams than their records.

It so happens that the Royals are the youngest team in baseball with an average age of 26.2, while the Phillies are the oldest with an average age of 31. Among the youngest players on the Royals, is standout first-basemen Eric Hosmer at 21.

Hosmer, is hitting amongst the likes of Placido Polanco, the 35-year-old Phillies third baseman. Kansas City has the lowest Payroll in the MLB at $36,126,400, while the Phillies payroll, $172,976,381 is only second only to the New York Yankees; making the Phillies payroll about five-times that of the Royals.

Some good news for Kansas City is that they are hitting well, ranking 9th in Runs, Batting-Average, and OBP. On the other hand, the Phillies rank 17th, 20th, and 19th respectively. The old dogs aren’t just rolling over yet.

To no surprise, the Phillies well-tenured pitching staff (including big names Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels) are dominating the younger Royals staff. The stacked Phillies rotation ranks 2nd in ERA and 1st in Quality Starts, with the average age among pitchers at 30 years old. With an average age just over 25, the struggling Royals staff is almost in last place (29th) in ERA and Quality Starts.

While Philadelphia is the team to beat in the NL, Kansas City is a team to take note of. With the All-Star break coming up next month, it will be interesting to see the performance of these two teams in the latter half of the season. Will the younger team be able to mature and continue to get better as the season progresses? Will the old arms of the Phillies hold up as the games start to add up?

Written by Matt Sbordone, Bloomberg Sports @SbordoneZone

Fantasy Baseball Caution: Worst Infielders: Butera, Loney, Figgins, Tejada, Lopez

The Worst Fantasy Infielders In Baseball

Catcher: Drew Butera, Twins (Rank 1094)
Called into action because of the Joe Mauer injury, Butera, a former firth round pick, hit just .197 last season. That is actually considered a career year for the 27-year-old backstop who is now batting .150 with one home run in 107 at bats.

First Base: James Loney, Dodgers (Rank 778)
It’s bad enough that Loney has never been able to hit with much power, but now that his average is down to .242 on the season after hitting just .267 last season, Loney is not tolerable.

Second Base: Chone Figgins, Mariners (Rank 945)
Rewarded with a long-term contract in Seattle, Figgins responded with a disappointing .259 average last season and just 62 runs scored. As bad as it was, a .286 average following the All-Star break made it look like an aberration. Not the case, as Figgins is hitting just .182 this season and is now batting eighth in the Mariners lineup.

Shortstop: Miguel Tejada, Giants (Rank 939)
Thinking that Miguel Tejada would be an improvement over Edgar Renteria, the Giants acquired the veteran shortstop. A .217 average with one home run and seven errors suggests this was not the best move.

Third base: Jose Lopez, Rockies (Rank 983)
Once considered a rising star, Jose Lopez blasted 25 home runs with 96 RBI in 2009. However, his inability to draw walks coupled with diminishing returns made Lopez expendable in his first season with the Rockies. He has officially been released with a .208 average in 125 at bats.

Are Recent Infield Arrivals Worth Your Time?

By R.J. Anderson //

With the 2013 Super Two date somewhere in the early-to-mid part of June, teams are beginning to call up worthwhile, if not elite, prospects in hopes for an added charge. Are any of the recent infield promotions capable of doing the same to your fantasy roster? Here is a look.

Dee Gordon

Son of Tom Gordon, Dee could claim owner of the “Flash” nickname too, because he has legitimate top-end speed. Scouts rate speed on a 20-to-80 scale, and many have Gordon at 80. Watching him play, it’s easy to see why, as he covers ground in an instant and his foot speed is a big reason for why he went 22-of-25 on basestealing attempts in Triple-A this season. Offensively, Gordon isn’t going to offer much else. Probably a decent-to-good batting average however he has little to no power. If speed is a priority, consider grabbing Gordon.

Jemile Weeks

Brother of Rickie, Jemile is up in place of Mark Ellis, who was sent to the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday with a hamstring strain. Weeks was hitting .321/.417/.446 in Triple-A with a walk-to-strikeout ratio near 1. He found himself leading off in his big league debut and should get a fair amount of playing time in Ellis’ absence.

Scott Sizemore

Another Athletic, Sizemore has taken Kevin Kouzmanoff’s spot. With Adam Rosales also returning, there is a chance the A’s use a combination of the pair at third base, but Sizemore’s play in Triple-A (an OPS over 1000 in 135 plate appearances makes him a possible change of scenery candidate—even if the only real changes were his uniform and the leniency the organization takes with his struggles.

Cord Phelps 

The newest addition to the list, Phelps was called up on Wednesday and thrown right into the lineup at second base. He can man the skill infield positions, which means he could gain eligibility at third, short, and second over the season. Phelps hit .308/.388/.498 in his Triple-A career and showed more pop than his previous performances. He could see regular playing time.

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com

Tim Stauffer & Carlos Carrasco: Fringe Fantasy Starters

By Eno Sarris //

We’re all searching for strikeouts. We know that the batting average on a strikeout is zero. We know that a pitcher with a high strikeout rate is likely to help in pitching categories across the board. We all love the strikeout.

But a couple pitchers showed us last night that there is value in pitchers that don’t rack up the Ks.

Well, Tim Stauffer did actually manage eight strikeouts in eight innings of shutout ball against the Rockies Tuesday night, but that’s not his norm. For the year, he has a strikeout rate that’s just above average (7.27 K/9, 6.97 is average this year). This mediocre rate is supported by a below-average swinging strike rate (7.6%, 8.4% is average), so it’s not likely to change much going forward. It’s also tempting to say that he’s a creation of his home park, but he has a 1.35 WHIP at home, and a 1.26 WHIP on the road. He’s been solid at home or away.

What does prop up his production is his walk rate and his groundball rate. Stauffer is only walking 2.31 batters per nine this year. He only walked 2.61 per nine last year, and has a 3.12 rate for his career. All of those numbers are comfortably above average (this year, 3.22 BB/9 is average). Stauffer also keeps the ball on the ground. The last couple of years, 44% of all contact has gathered dirt – and Stauffer has shown a 53.4% groundball rate. Among pitchers with more than 150 innings pitched since the beginning of 2009, that rate places 13th. He’s a worm-burner with great control that deserves to be on most mixed-league rosters even if he won’t rack up the strikeouts.

Most of the same things can be said about Carlos Carrasco in Cleveland, but to a lesser extent. The paradox is that this makes him more likely to be available in your leagues, and also more of a risk.

Carrasco pitched well last night, but not as well as Stauffer. He got six strikeouts in eight and a third innings to Stauffer’s eight. He did hold a team scoreless, but it was the punchless Twins. Carrasco also fails to rack up the strikeouts, but his rate is more poor (5.21 K/9) than mediocre. Carrasco also has shown good control (2.60 BB/9 this year), but his groundball rate (49%) is not as strong. Call him Stauffer-lite – even his home park helps suppress the home run to a lesser extent (3% fewer home runs to lefties, 12% fewer to righties).

There is one note of upside left in Carrasco’s profile. While Stauffer has a below-average swinging strike rate, Carrasco’s is barely above average (8.5%). By using his strong curveball and changeup, he actually managed a strikeout rate above eight per nine ever since he hit Double-A in the Phillies’ organization. His strikeout rates have been better than Stauffer’s at every minor league level.

So there’s your wrinkle. Neither Carrasco nor Stauffer will headline your staff because they are unlikely to be strong plusses in the strikeout category. But by limiting the walks and keeping the ball on the ground, both will be useful this year. Consider picking them up in your leagues if you are looking for good ratios.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

(Vid) Behind the Numbers: New media & its impact on fandom

Celebrating the Fan Experience Part 3: Sabermetrics, Social Media & the Impact on Fandom

Hosts:  Wayne Parillo and Rob Shaw

Behind the Numbers is a series of conversations and discussions with baseball, blog, sabermetric, and fantasy experts.

Guest:Dave Cameron, co-founder ussmariner.com, and writer for fangraphs.com and espn.com Insider. Follow him at d_a_cameron

Dave Cameron covers topics from super 2 status, sabermetrics hitting the main stream, and how new media such as social media and twitter changes the way he is Mariner’s fan. Plus some good old fashioned stories and thoughts on Jose Bautista, the Cardinals, and Charlie Blackmon.

Watch the entire episode, or use the links below to jump to the exact point you want.

 For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

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Former Top Yankee Pick taken First Overall

It’s been a special week for Gerrit Cole, as he was nabbed by the Pirates with the first pick overall of the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft.  As special as it was, it was not unique for him personally.  After all, the 6’4, 220-lbs college junior was drafted back following his High School career in 2008 by the New York Yankees with the 28th overall pick.

The Yankees were reportedly ready to offer the high school athlete upwards of $4 million, but Cole decided to follow through with his collegiate scholarship to UCLA. There has even been a picture published in local newspapers showing the 11-year-old Gerrit Cole holding a sign proclaiming himself a “Yankee Fan Today Tomorrow Forever,” from the front row of Bank One Ballpark during the 2001 World Series. Though Cole grew up a Yankee’s fan, he has made it clear that he does not regret the decision to join the UCLA Bruins.

No better justification of his decision came last night when Cole was taken with the No. 1 overall selection in the 2011 MLB Draft by the Pittsburg Pirates. Scouts swarmed the stands as Cole delivered his high-90 mph fastball, sharp slider and improving changeup, gaining him 376 strikeouts over 322 1/3 innings, during his three-year tenure with UCLA. Pittsburgh praised their pick despite Cole’s pedestrian numbers his senior year (a 6-8 record, with a 3.31 ERA).  The Bucs are banking that Cole will enjoy a winning career once he takes the mound in the Major Leagues.

* Written By Matt Sbordone (@SbordoneZone), Bloomberg Sports

Major League Baseball Rookie Report: Lawrie, Gordon, Ackley, Rizzo, Jennings, and Weeks

The Rookie Report

Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers

This 23-year old shortstop may have been rushed a bit to the Majors because of the injury to Rafael Furcal.  Gordon is by all means a speedster, who has swiped 50-plus bases in back-to-back seasons in the Minor Leagues.

 

His lack of power actually plays well at the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, where deep flies often die at the warning track.  Gordon just has to prove that he can get on base and make the plays at shortstop.  Gordon was batting .315 through 50 games before his call up to the Majors.  If in need of speed, he’s an intriguing fantasy pickup.

 

Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B, Blue Jays

Lawrie is everything that Blue Jays fans could ever have dreamed of.  Just 21 years old, this former first round pick is a British Columbia native who boasts all five tools, particularly power and speed.  Though playing in the Las Vegas desert inflates his statistics a bit, you cannot ignore his 15 home runs, 49 RBI, and .354 batting clip through 52 games.

 

Lawrie was expected to be called up this week before a recent beaning set him back a week.  There’s still a chance that Lawrie gets the call to man third base, a position that has become a black hole for the Blue Jays since Jose Bautista moved to the outfield.

 

Dustin Ackley, 2B

The second overall pick of the 2009 draft, Ackley has made some solid improvements in his second season in the Minor Leagues.  There is not a particular statistic that jumps out at you when studying Ackley’s performance, but he is solid across the board.

 

He is an incredibly patient batter with some pop and speed.  Ackley is also a middle infielder, and despite rumors of a move to the outfield, he is likely to man second base when he earns his call up to the Big Leagues.

 

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Padres

Mired in last place, the Padres are certainly feeling the effects of letting Adrian Gonzalez go to the Red Sox.  On the other hand, through the trade they acquired a monster bat that is tearing up the Minor Leagues and ready for a promotion to the Majors.

 

We’re talking about 21-year old first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who is currently batting .365 with 16 home runs and 63 RBI through just 52 games at Triple-A.  The numbers are a bit surprising, considering Rizzo has never hit for average before, but at this point, the Padres can’t afford to let the Brad Hawpe/Jorge Cantu platoon continue at first base considering both veterans are batting less than .240 this season.

 

Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays

One of the most hyped prospects in all of baseball, Desmond Jennings may have been a bit overrated, considering people were talking about him as a sure-fire replacement of Carl Crawford as early as last season.  The comparisons are understandable since both talents have a similar skill-set, but Crawford was an MVP caliber player while Jennings is just trying to get his career started.

 

In his first taste of the Majors last season Jennings hit just .190 with two steals in 17 games.  The Rays deemed Jennings not ready to man left-field in the Major Leagues, so he is playing at the Triple-A level for a third year in a row.  The good news is that Jennings has become more patient at the plate and is starting to drive the ball with more power.  He has been far from dominant, but considering the Sam Fuld experiment is starting to go flat, Jennings would be an upgrade.

 

Jemile Weeks, 2B, A’s

If you missed out on acquiring Rickie Weeks for your fantasy team, you ought to get to know his younger brother Jemile Weeks.  A first round pick out of Miami, Weeks is also a second baseman who will get to fill in for the injured Mark Ellis.

 

Weeks has yet to develop the power of his older brother, but he can supply Oakland with some much-needed offense.  Through 44 games at Triple-A, Weeks boasts a .321 average with four triples and nine stolen bases.  The big question now is whether Bob Geren will provide Weeks with some regular at bats, or if he’s merely an insurance option behind Scott Sizemore and Adam Rosales.