MLB Season in Review: San Diego Padres Pitchers

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise & 2011 Regression Alert: Jon Garland

Garland posted a terrible strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.56, even worse than his already lousy career rate of 1.61. Garland made up for that shortcoming with a very fortunate .267 batting average on balls in play (league average is around .300), yielding a shiny 3.47 ERA. He also won double-digit games for the ninth consecutive year, racking up a fantasy-friendly 14-12 record. That streak could be in danger if he signs with a non-Padres team and continues to pitch as he did this season. If he stays in San Diego, expect that very low ERA to increase; if he leaves, expect it to inflate by a run or more.

Biggest Bust: Kevin Correia

After a 2009 in which he completed 198 innings with 12 wins and a 3.91 ERA, many expected Correia to be a league-average pitcher at worst, and a fantasy asset. Instead, he pitched only 145 innings, racking up a 5.40 ERA. Because of the team’s quality, Correia’s still managed 10 wins, but his rotation status for 2011 is very much in doubt.

2011 Keeper Alert: Mat Latos

It’s hard to have a much better season than the 22-year-old Latos did. A 14-10 record and 2.92 ERA in 184.2 innings pitched for someone who never threw a pitch in Triple-A is quite the achievement. Latos averaged more than a strikeout per inning. Spell his name with one t (like dominant) and keep him for the conceivable future. San Diego has its new ace.

For more on Mat Latos and better keeper prospects, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: San Diego Padres Hitters

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise: Miguel Tejada

From hitting .269/.308/.362 with seven homers in 428 plate appearances, to hitting .277/.323/.442 with 8 homers in 220 plate appearances – in a ballpark that tramples offensive output. Maybe the added pressure of a playoff race really did rekindle Tejada’s spirit. After all, this is the first time Tejada has been in a serious playoff pursuit since 2003.

Biggest Bust: Kyle Blanks

An easy player to root for, the six-foot-six behemoth missed most of the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. When Blanks did play, he was mostly unimpressive, striking out in more than 45% of his at-bats and not flashing the power that made him a tantalizing sleeper this year. Adrian Gonzalez‘s eventual departure would allow the Padres to play Blanks at first base and leave him there, but the huge holes in his swing remain a going concern.

2011 Keeper Alert: Adrian Gonzalez

Despite playing in one of the toughest offensive environments in all of baseball, Gonzalez continues to hit. This season, he hit .298 (nearly a career high) with a .393 on-base percentage and .511 slugging percentage. He posted a fourth straight year of at least 30 home runs (31) and at least 95 RBI (101). Entering the walk year of his contract, he’s a candidate to be moved at the trade deadline if the Padres fall out of the race early in 2011. If that happens and Gonzalez goes to a better ballpark for hitters, he’d become even more valuable.

2011 Regression Alert: Ryan Ludwick

Call him the anti-Tejada. Just about every aspect of Ludwick’s game went the wrong way after the Cardinals sent him to San Diego. He’ll attempt to rebound after seeing a drop in all major statistical categories. A move away from Petco would make him a strong candidate for positive regression, and the Padres might be willing to deal, after pledging to boost their payroll.

For more on Ryan Ludwick and other San Diego Padres, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Seattle Mariners Pitchers

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Jason Vargas

When the season started, many wondered who would step up behind Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez in the Mariners’ rotation. Despite his 9-12 record, Vargas has been a serviceable starter for Seattle this season. Although his strikeout rate was poor (5.42 K/9 IP), his walk (2.52 BB/9 IP) and home run rate (0.84 HR/9 IP) were excellent, fueling a 3.78 ERA. There was some luck involved: Vargas HR/FB rate was a low 6.1%, and his defense-independent numbers pointed to a pitcher whose true skill lay closer to a high-4s ERA than high 3s.

Still, if there’s such a thing as purposeful luck, Vargas is it. The Mariners have targeted left-handed pitchers with low walk rates and flyball tendencies to great success in the past couple years, as Jarrod Washburn and now Vargas have benefited from stellar outfield defense and a left-center field gap that makes homers nearly impossibly for right-handed hitters. In deeper leagues, you should be targeting Seattle pitchers with this skill set in the future.

Biggest Bust: Ian Snell

Not that the expectations for Snell were that high to begin with, but an 0-5 record and 6.41 ERA in 12 appearances fell below even the lowest of expectations. The former Pirates prospect registered just 26 strikeouts while walking 25 in 46.1 innings before being designated for assignment in mid-June.

2011 Keeper Alert: Felix Hernandez

Surprise! If you have one of the best – if not the best – young pitchers is all of baseball, you should keep him – even at a high price in a roto auction league. The man dubbed King Felix by the excellent Mariners website USSMariner.com when Felix was just a teenager put up a Cy Young-worthy season, win-loss record be damned. A strikeout-to-walk rate of better than 3-to-1, one of the top groundball rates in baseball on a perennial basis and tremendous durability yield one of the most reliable starting pitching commodities on the planet. Expect nothing less next year.

2011 Regression Alert: David Aardsma

One could say Aardsma experienced enough regression in 2010 after his monster breakout season of a year ago. Not only did his K/9 rate drop from 10.09 to 8.88, but his BB/9, as well as his HR/9, rose from 2009 levels. Yet somehow his batting average against dropped from .196 to .191. He can thank a friendlier than usual BABIP of .235 for that, despite just a 1% dip in line drives allowed. Walking a batter every other inning is a bad sign for a closer, and his BABIP is likely to creep up next season. As a result, expect Aardsma’s ERA to rise; the Mariners will also look to shop him this off-season, and a move to a less pitcher-friendly ballpark could further erode his fantasy value.  

For more on Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners’ pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits. 

MLB Season in Review: Detroit Tigers Pitchers

By Jonah Keri //

Biggest Surprise: Joel Zumaya

The injury-prone, fireballing right-hander was a wreck in 2009,
walking more than six batters per nine innings and posting an ERA near
5.00. Further removed from his latest breakdown, Zumaya rebounded
impressively this season, slashing his walk rate to 2.58/9 IP and
posting a strikeout-to-walk rate of better than 3:1. His 2.58 ERA was a
boon for fantasy players who wield relief pitchers to help with ratios.
Zumaya suffered a fractured elbow in late June though, costing him the
rest of the season and leaving his owners with only 38.1 innings of
fantasy goodness. Applaud the great comeback, but steer clear of Zumaya
at the draft table next season.

Biggest Bust: Rick Porcello

A 10-12 record and a 4.92 ERA for one of the most highly-touted young
pitchers in the game qualifies as a huge bust. But really, everyone
should have seen it coming. Porcello’s 14-9 record and 3.96 ERA came
despite an abysmal K rate of just 4.69/9 IP. It’s nearly impossible to
see sustained success when you strike out so few batters. Indeed,
Porcello’s 2010 K rate is virtually identical to his 2009 mark. It’s
just that he ran out of luck, his left on base rate plunging and his
batting average on balls in play climbing 30 points. Porcello’s not yet
22, and he actually sliced his walk rate all the way down to 2.1/9 IP
this season. He’s still got upside, just keep your expectations in check
until he starts missing more bats.

2011 Keeper Alert: Max Scherzer

After eight starts this season, Scherzer’s record stood at 1-4 with a
7.29 ERA, making the multi-team trade the Tigers pulled off last
off-season look like a potential bust. Though he’d been unlucky on balls
in play, Scherzer’s strikeout rate was also down sharply from his
stellar 2009 levels, raising concerns of an injury, or at least wonky
mechanics. Sent to Triple-A for two weeks, he straightened himself out,
then proceeded to destroy the American League. His 12-11 record and 3.50
ERA helped plenty of fantasy teams this season. But Scherzer’s
strikeout-inducting stuff (8.46 K/9 IP) could portend much bigger things
down the road, even Cy Young contention.

2011 Regression Alert: Armando Galarraga

People will remember Galarraga’s 2010 Perfect Game That Wasn’t for a
long time. Just don’t let it sway you into speculating on him in
fantasy. Galarraga’s K rate was even worse than Porcello’s this season,
and his walk rate is more than one per nine innings higher than
Porcello’s. The 4.62 ERA looks respectable and the near-perfecto might
tempt you to take a flyer next year. Don’t. His true talent points to a
pitcher whose true ability level suggests ERAs well over 5 in his
future.

For more on Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

 

MLB Season in Review: Detroit Tigers Hitters

By Jonah Keri //

Biggest Surprise: Austin Jackson

One could easily make a case for Jackson as a regression candidate,
as his sky-high .399 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable
over the long haul, and suggests a possible pullback from his .295
average this year. But Jackson’s 103 runs scored and 26 steals to go
with the high average gave fantasy owners a big lift, and at just 23
years old, he could see gains in power and speed to help offset that
batting average regression, both next year and beyond.

Biggest Bust: Johnny Damon

We knew Damon’s numbers would pull back significantly from 2009
levels, going from possibly the friendliest park in baseball for his
slashing, left-handed swing to the vast expanses of Comerica Park, and
from the Yankees’ killer lineup to the Tigers’ collection of Miguel
Cabrera and a band of no-names. But the plunge was far more dramatic
than expected: 24 homers, 82 RBI and 107 runs scored in ’09, 8 homers,
50 RBI and 81 runs scored this year. Damon isn’t much of a basestealing
threat anymore either, swiping just 11 bags in 2010. Avoid him at next
year’s draft table.

2011 Keeper Alert: Ryan Raburn

First the negatives: Raburn’s .333 batting average on balls in play
might regress next year, making him a risk for a somewhat lower batting
average. He’s got a sizable platoon split on his track record and could
be vulnerable to tough right-handed pitching if given 600 plate
appearances. And he only qualifies at OF heading into next season. On
the other hand, Raburn should play meet the typical 5- or 10-game
in-season minimums needed to qualify at second base next year, and he’s
swatted 31 homers over about 700 plate appearances in the last two
seasons with the Tigers. Stash him as a cheap keeper at OF or UT, then
slide him to 2B when he qualifies there next year and you’ll have cheap
power at a position that doesn’t have a lot of it.

2011 Regression Alert: None

Miguel Cabrera was the only Tigers hitter to put up big
numbers this season, and he’s in his prime at age 27 and improving by
the year — meaning it’s tough to find a Tigers hitter due for a big
pullback. By the same token, few Tigers performed so poorly relative to
expectations that you’d expect a big positive regression either. You
could be generous and argue that Scott Sizemore is better than
the .224/.296/.336 line he mustered this season. But the man Detroit
originally ticketed for the starting second base job in 2010 sports a
track record of mediocre power and high strikeout rates in the minor
leagues; he may well be unable to hit enough to hold down an everyday
job, let alone help you in even a deeper mixed league. 

For more on Austin Jackson and the Detroit Tigers lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy kits.

 

MLB Season In Review: Seattle Mariners Hitters

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Russell Branyan

After leading the Mariners in home runs in 2009 (31), few expected Branyan to do it again in 2010. Why? Because he started the season with a nasty back injury (and as a member of the Cleveland Indians). After a few months in Cleveland, he was re-acquired by Seattle. In 57 games, he has hit 15 home runs for the M’s which is (sadly) good enough for the team lead. He also leads the team with a .802 OPS.

Biggest Bust: Chone Figgins

There were plenty of choices here: Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez. But Figgins’ poor season comes with the biggest price tag. After signing a four-year deal in the off-season, Figgins is “hitting” .263/.344/.310 this year – a far cry from his career .287/.360/.376 line. He has just 24 extra-base hits in nearly 700 plate appearances and has rated as a below-average defender at second base. The one good thing from a fantasy perspective is Figgins stole 42 bases this season, though he still scored just 62 times in a historically awful Seattle lineup.

2011 Keeper Alert: Ichiro Suzuki

Even in what could be described as a down season for him, Ichiro, remained the Mariners’ top offensive weapon in 2010. His slash line dipped to .315/359/.394, but once again topped the 200-hit mark – becoming the first player in league history with 10 consecutive seasons of 200 hits. In addition to the hits, he also stole 41 bases and somehow managed to cross the plate 73 times – nearly 15% of the teams total runs scored. Another 200 hits and 40 steals should be doable for the great Ichiro in 2011.

2011 Regression Alert: Justin Smoak

As the big chip in the Cliff Lee trade, Smoak has been a disappointment in 2010. The young slugger is hitting just .201/.301/.364 in 356 plate appearances. On the plus side, he’s hit 13 homers in less than 400 plate appearances, and has found his stride in the last couple weeks of the season, hitting for power and showing a much better batting eye. He’s just too talented to be this bad next year, and he could be an excellent deep sleeper.

For more on Ichiro and the Seattle Mariners’ lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.

 

MLB Season in Review: Atlanta Braves Pitchers

By Eno Sarris //

Biggest Surprise: Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner

Both have been good for a long time, but Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner both surpassed expectations this year in their returns from Tommy John surgery. Wags found his old strikeout punch, to the tune of more than 13 strikeouts per nine innings, while Hudson focused more on getting the ground ball (64.7%, best in baseball). Because of their ages (Hudson is 35, Wagner 39), they might not make great keepers – especially with Wagner reportedly retiring – but they put in great work this year.

Biggest Bust: Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens is the clear bust for the Braves. He was injured for much of the year and could finish the season with only 20 starts, an ERA near 5.00, and the ire of fantasy owners everywhere. The thing is, Jurrjens really put up some of the same fundamental stats in 2010 that he did in 2009. His strikeout, walk and groundball rates were all similar in those two years. Instead, his luck and health went south this year. He’s an interesting bounce-back sleeper candidate late in 2011 drafts.
 

2011 Keeper Alert: Tommy Hanson

The one clear keeper on this pitching staff is Tommy Hanson. He has a strong three-pitch arsenal, cut his walks from his rookie to sophomore years, and features an above-average strikeout rate for a starter. Still, he showed much better strikeout punch in the minor leagues and could have further upside in 2011. In the bullpen, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel are both interesting young arms, but Venters is much better against lefties than righties, Kimbrel is a little wild, and their veteran competition for the closer’s role next year is still TBD.

2011 Regression Warning: Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson, at 35, showed his best groundball rate of his career. That probably won’t happen again next year, meaning his lower strikeout rate could produce an ERA a run higher next year.

For more on Tim Hudson and other Bravos, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Atlanta Braves Hitters

By Eno Sarris //

Biggest Surprise: Omar Infante

Omar Infante came out of nowhere to make the All-Star team and provide fantasy owners with a an average over .300 and eligibility all over the field, which qualifies as much more of a positive surprise than any other hitter on the team (other than the Say-Hey Kid listed below perhaps). Martin Prado was a bit of a question mark going in because of mediocre minor league stats and a lack of an extensive track record, but Prado managed to keep spraying line drives all over the field (.307/.350/.459) and looks like a strong middle-tier second baseman going forward.

Biggest Bust: Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth easily qualifies for this title, as he struggled at the plate and with injuries all year and won’t crack double-digits in homers or steals by the end of the year, despite having a 20-20 season on his record. A bit of a late-season comeback helped, and a .218 batting average on balls in play points to a very unlucky season. Still, McLouth isn’t good enough defensively to handle center field nor offensive to handle a corner outfield spot. He may never again be fantasy-relevant in standard mixed leagues.
 

2011 Keeper Alert: Jason Heyward

We can’t go any further without talking about wunderkind Jason Heyward. The 21-year-old played with a maturity beyond his years, and his .278/.394/.457 line is nothing other than amazing given his age. Expect the patience to continue, the power to embiggen and for Heyward to eventually mature into a first-round pick in fantasy baseball.

2011 Regression Warning: Alex Gonzalez

At 33 years old, Alex Gonzalez has hit a career high with 23 home runs, with a strong .453 slugging percentage. Given his age and track record, those numbers will likely come down, and his poor plate discipline will sap him of most of his value. Meanwhile, Infante won’t once again have batted ball luck like he did in 2010, and batting average provides most his value. Neither middle infielder will be a great option next year.

For more on Jason Heyward and other Bravos, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: San Francisco Giants Hitters

By Eriq Gardner //

Biggest Surprise

Andres Torres spent 13 years in the minors before finally getting a shot to play every day in the majors this season. His numbers on the farm were decent, but nothing that hinted he’d be any better than a serviceable backup. He showed some promise in 2009, hitting .270/.343/.533. This year, Torres has hit 15 homers, knocked in 61 runs, scored 83, and stolen 23 bases in 549 plate appearances. He’s certainly earned an outfield spot again next season, even though he’ll be 33 with a light pedigree. The guy who came out of nowhere edges the spectacular comeback year of Aubrey Huff as the team’s biggest surprise.

Biggest Bust

Pablo Sandoval was coming off a 25-HR season in 2009 and looked like a good bet to develop as one of the league’s most valuable corner infielders. After all, Kung Fu Panda has an elite ability to make contact with the ball — hardly ever striking out. So what happened in 2010? Sandoval hit only a dozen home runs and his batting average dropped from .330 all the way down to .267. It’s hard to explain his complete absence of power this year except to speculate about his body weight, a hidden injury, or just pure bad luck. It’s also possible that Sandoval enjoyed a career year in 2009 (including a very high .350 BABIP) and that he had little to no shot to repeat that performance.

2011 Keeper Alert

Buster Posey arrived on the scene in late May and quickly established himself as one of baseball’s top catchers. This season, in just 426 plate appearances, Posey has hit 16 HR, knocked in 64, and hit .311. Posey was highly touted coming into the league, but few catching prospects are ever this good, this quickly. Now, he has made a case that he could possibly be the most valuable catcher in baseball next year, especially if Joe Mauer fails to regain his 2009 power stroke. Posey’s value is helped by the fact that he plays nearly every day — another rarity among catchers — and hits high up in San Francisco’s lineup.

2011 Regression Alert

Expect better things from Sandoval next season. He’s still making contact and putting the ball in the air, but a 6.6% HR/FB rate is flukishly low and bound to improve.

For more on Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

 

MLB Season in Review: Toronto Blue Jays Pitchers

By Jonah Keri //

Biggest Surprise: Shaun Marcum

Ricky Romero‘s very close, with a 13-9 record, 3.79 ERA, and
7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. But we’re giving the nod to Marcum,
given his great comeback from injuries. The 13-8 record, 3.63 ERA and
7.7 K/9 IP rate are nearly identical to Romero’s line. But the 2.1 BB/9
IP points to a pitcher with a much better WHIP than Romero (for 2010
fantasy purposes) and generally better command. At any rate, if you
drafted either of these guys this year, you’re happy.

Biggest Bust: None

The pitching staff overachieved en masse. In fact, looking at the seasons put up by Jose Bautista and Vernon Wells,
and the terrific performances by several young starters, it’s a wonder
the Jays didn’t make a bigger run at the postseason. Goes to show what
a killer division the AL East is.

2011 Keeper Alert: Brandon Morrow

No one can figure out why the Mariners gave up so early on Morrow,
the hard-throwing number-one pick. But the Jays are happy they did.
Morrow’s 178 strikeouts in just 146.1 IP yield an off-the-charts
strikeout rate for a starting pitcher. His 17 K, one-hitter against the
Rays marked the single best game by any pitcher this season, according
to Bill James’ Game Score stat. Morrow has real ace potential, but you
won’t have to pay nearly that much given the modest 10-7 record and
4.49 ERA. Keep him if you can, or draft him at a discount next season.

2011 Regression Alert: Kevin Gregg

The 36 saves are great, but Gregg’s success was purely a function of
opportunity. He was his usual wild self this season, walking a batter
every other inning and working in and out of trouble far more
frequently than a pitcher usually tasked with pitching ahead and with
the bases empty ever should. We recommend buying skills when shopping
for relief pitchers, because skills-challenged closers like Gregg
become nearly useless the moment they lose their job. And it’ll happen
sooner or later.

For more on Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow and the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.