MLB Season In Review: Texas Rangers Pitchers

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise(s): C.J. Wilson & Colby Lewis

In one of the first articles at Bloomberg Sports, we wondered if Wilson could physically handle the transition from reliever to starter, and more importantly, if his stellar stats would follow. Wilson answered those questions by tossing 203 innings and going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 33 starts. Wilson did lead the league in walks allowed. Still, he allowed just 10 homers all year and showed great durability. The move was certainly a success for the straight edge racer and the Rangers.

After spending 2008 and 2009 away from the major leagues, Lewis returned in a big way in 2010. Although he finished with a 12-13 record, his 3.72 ERA in 201 innings amounted to one of baseball’s biggest surprises. With nearly a strikeout per inning and less than three walks per nine, Lewis’ success was no fluke. He won’t surprise anyone next year, so plan accordingly.

Biggest Bust: Scott Feldman

Feldman enjoyed a breakout season in 2009, going 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts. He came crashing down to earth in 2010 as he went 7-11 with a 5.48 ERA in 22 starts. Feldman’s strikeout rate was poor in 2009 (5.36 K/9), but was even worse in 2010 (4.78).  Although he might see some positive regression in 2011, it shouldn’t be much.

2011 Keeper Alert: Neftali Feliz

Feliz completed the opposite transition of C.J. Wilson, as the one-time starting pitching prospect became one of the AL’s best closers. The 22-year-old saved 40 games in 43 opportunities. His strikeout rate dropped from double digits in 2009, but was still better than league average (9.22 K/9). He did a stellar job of limiting walks (2.34 BB/9) and kept the ball in the yard (0.65 HR/9) despite his home stadium. There are talks of him one day resuming his starting role, but regardless of role, his live arm is worth keeping around.

2011 Regression Alert: Tommy Hunter

With a record of 13-4 and an ERA of 3.73, Hunter definitely caught some people’s attention. But really, Hunter is another Scott Feldman waiting to happen given the two pitchers’ very similar peripherals. In fact, Hunter posted an identical strikeout rate of 4.78 Ks per nine innings. He did post a nice walk rate, but gave up nearly 1.5 home runs per nine. In addition to BABIP regression, Hunter also stranded 80.7% of batters. The league average is 72.2%. Let someone else in your league deal with all that regression in 2011.

For more on C.J. Wilson and the Texas Rangers’ rotation checkout Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

 

MLB Season In Review: Cleveland Indians Hitters

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Carlos Santana

Despite having his rookie season cut short with a gruesome knee injury, Carlos Santana looked as good as advertised in his 46 major league games. After hitting .316/.447/.597 in 57 minor league games, the young catcher compiled an .868 OPS in 192 plate appearances for Cleveland. Although his batting average was just .260, Santana had an on-base percentage over .400 (.401). This is because he walked an amazing 37 times in 192 appearances (19.3%).

Biggest Bust: Grady Sizemore

It is somewhat unfair to label a player a bust when his season ends after just 33 games due to a major knee surgery. But even before the injury, Grady Sizemore was not producing like a top-level outfielder – the spot where most people drafted him this year. As mentioned, Sizemore played in just 33 games. In those games, he hit just .211/.271/.289. This comes on the heels of 2009 in which he hit just .248/.343/.445 in 106 games, itself a huge step-down from his prior superstar performance. He’s a high-upside pick next year, but given the risk, don’t overbid.

2011 Keeper Alert: Carlos Santana

Not only is Santana a really good hitter with ridiculous on-base skills, he does it from one of the least productive positions in baseball. The average OPS for a major league catcher this season is .702, the second-worst mark for any position on the field (shortstop .696). In his brief time, Santana posted an OPS of .868. There are three catchers in the entire league (minimum 190 PA) who posted a higher OPS: Geovany Soto, Buster Posey, and Joe Mauer.

2011 Regression Alert: Matt LaPorta

As the crown jewel in the CC Sabathia trade of 2008, Indians fans are still waiting for Matt LaPorta to replicate his minor league success at the next level. LaPorta has hit just .221/.306/.362 in 425 plate appearances. His batting average on balls in play was also pretty low at .250. A large reason for this is his weak percentage of line drives hit. Just 12.5% of the balls in play off LaPorta’s bat were line drives – the third-worst mark in baseball (minimum 400 PA). It is no secret that line drives are the type of batted ball that tends to fall for a hit the most often. Still, LaPorta’s minor league track record suggests power potential, and he should start right from Opening Day next season. He’s worth a shot in deeper leagues.

For more on Carlos Santana and the Cleveland Indians lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: Boston Red Sox Pitchers

By Eriq Gardner // 

Biggest Surprise

Clay Buchholz was one of the best prospects coming into the majors back in 2008. The fact that he’s been successful isn’t shocking. But considering his troubles in the early portion of his major league career, nobody was expecting a 17-7 record and 2.33 ERA.

Biggest Bust

John Lackey clearly hasn’t been worth his big free agent payday. In retrospect, his disappointing year in 2010 didn’t come out of the blue. His ability to strike out batters has been on the wane for several season. This year, his K/9 rate dipped all the way down to 6.53. That was the lowest mark since his rookie season, and bad news when a pitcher is facing strong AL East lineups on a regular basis.

2011 Keeper Alert

Jon Lester was a Cy Young candidate coming into the season. He’ll enter next season as one of the top few pitchers overall again after going 19-9 with a 3.25 ERA and a stellar 9.74 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s only 26 years old. …Meanwhile, Daniel Bard is an intriguing option, depending on what the Red Sox decide to do with Jonathan Papelbon in the off-season. Should Bard inherit the closer role, he’ll immediately become one of the top few closers available, given his excellent peripherals.

2011 Regression Alert

Back to Buchholz. He’s still young and up-and-coming, but few pitchers in baseball  enjoyed better luck in 2010. His 2.33 ERA belied the fact that he’s not striking out enough batters and not keeping enough batters off base via walks. His xFIP, a measure of ERA based on peripherals, was nearly two runs higher at 4.20. If Buchholz doesn’t improve his underlying skills, look for him to give up more home runs next season and get lesser results when his strand rate normalizes.

For more on Red Sox pitchers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools. 

MLB Season in Review: Boston Red Sox Hitters

By Eriq Gardner // 

Biggest Surprise

Adrian Beltre signed a one-year deal last off-season and had an outstanding comeback year. The move from pitcher-friendly Safeco in Seattle to hitter-friendly Fenway in Boston was incredibly kind to the third baseman. Beltre hit 28 HR, the second-highest total in his 13-season career. Beltre also hit .321, the fourth-best mark in the American League.

Biggest Bust

Jacoby Ellsbury entered the season having swiped a combined total of 120 bags in his rookie and sophomore years. In 2010, the outfielder came nowhere close to fulfilling expectations, thanks largely to significant injuries. And when he did play, he wasn’t very productive. In 78 at-bats this season, Ellsbury only hit .192. However, given better health and better fortune on balls hit into play, Ellsbury should be able to bounce back strongly next season.

2011 Keeper Alert

In deeper leagues Jed Lowrie makes an interesting play, since good talent at shortstop is hard to come by these days. In 2010, Lowrie overcame an early injury and performed extremely well after being called up in late July. In 197 plate appearances, Lowrie hit nine home runs and sported a mighty impressive ratio of 25 walks to 25 strikeouts. A former Baseball America top 100 prospect, Lowrie has the upside to be a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia.

2011 Regression Alert

We could point to Beltre’s high BABIP or Ellsbury’s low BABIP, but instead let’s consider health as the key point of future regression. This season, the Red Sox experienced tremendous bad luck on the injury front. The team suffered season-ending injuries to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis — three of the team’s most valuable batters. The misfortunes contributed to Boston’s inability to make the playoffs. Given better health, the Red Sox as a whole may score more runs in 2011, padding batters’ counting stats.

For more on Red Sox hitters, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools. 

MLB Season in Review: Philadelphia Phillies Pitchers

By Eno Sarris //

Biggest Surprise: Cole Hamels

We’ll term it a surprise – Cole Hamels did put up a 3.06 ERA a year after having a 4.32 number in that category last year. But if you follow secondary statistics, it was just another year for Hamels. Consider his FIPs (Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that runs along the same scale as ERA, but strips out the park effects, defense and other factors beyond a pitcher’s control) since his rookie season: 3.83, 3.72, 3.72, and 3.67 last year. This year, he finally benefited from some good luck, standing 82.7% of the runners he put on base and thus netting his “surprise” year.

Biggest Bust: Joe Blanton

This was a good year for the deep Phillies staff, but Joe Blanton‘s ERA spiked to 4.85 from the 4.05 mark he put up in 2009. He also ate up the fewest innings since becoming a regular rotation member (175.2), fueling low totals in wins (nine) and strikeouts (136). He did have a 4.34 FIP this year, (4.21 career), so he’s basically somewhere between the 2009 and 2010 versions of himself, though neither is very helpful in fantasy baseball.

2011 Keeper Alert: Roy Halladay

Sure, the Doc is a little older these days (33), but he sure enjoyed the weaker league, as he had the best strikeout (7.86) and walk rates (1.08) he’d ever shown in a full season. The innings totals might be a little worrisome for other pitchers (more than 220 innings for five straight years), but not all innings are created equal. Halladay has averaged just 14 pitches per inning – almost two fewer than Blanton, for example – despite the solid strikeout totals. He’ll surely win some hardware and make a fine keeper this off-season.

2011 Regression Alert: Roy Oswalt

Roy Oswalt is also 33 and also put up his best strikeout rate (8.21) since he became a full-time starter. This, despite hovering under 7 K/9 for most of his recent career. Unlike Halladay, Oswalt hadn’t shown this kind of Cy Youngish performance in years. Asking for another ERA below 3.00 next season is probably asking too much.

For more on the Roys Oswalt and Halladay and other Philadelphia Phillies, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Philadelphia Phillies Hitting

By Eno Sarris //

Biggest Surprise: Carlos Ruiz

After spending most of his career as a sub-.260 hitter, Carlos Ruiz finally had some luck on batted balls (.335 BABIP this year, .280 career) and put together a terrific and surprising .302/.400/.447 season that would have ranked him higher if he had managed more than 433 plate appearances. Shane Victorino‘s power surge (18 homers, .170 ISO in 2010, .150 career) also qualifies as a nice surprise, but it came from hitting more fly balls and negatively affected his batting average.

Biggest Bust: Jimmy Rollins

It may seem like nicks and cuts are keeping Jimmy Rollins out of the lineup more often these days, but 2010 was the first time he didn’t amass 625+ plate appearances since his rookie year. Given his injury-riddled year, it’s not surprising that Rollins had the fewest home runs and stolen bases of his career, as well as the lowest batting average. He’ll be a 32-year-old shortstop next year, and more years like this will come in the future, even if his BABIP (.246) and ISO (.131 in 2010, .163 career) rebound in the short term.

2011 Keeper Alert: Domonic Brown

This is a great team full of solid keepers, but most of the Phillies’ regulars are also over 30 years old. Fantasy owners looking to the future should consider Domonic Brown, who will most likely replace Jayson Werth when Werth leaves in free agency. Across Double- and Triple-A in 2010, Brown showed power (.262 ISO), speed (17 SB), and a great batting average (.327). His strikeout rate was a little high (21.5%), but he’s an elite prospect.

2011 Regression Alert: Jayson Werth

Werth has been great since joining the Phillies three years ago, averaging 29 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a .279 batting average over that time. But he’s looking for a paycheck that will most probably take him away from the ever-more-expensive Phillies team. That would be too bad, because he has a .529 slugging percentage in Philadelphia (.481 career), and has benefited both from the hitter-friendly ballpark and a strong lineup conducive to counting stats. With the steals already declining, a few fewer home runs in his future, and a high strikeout rate (28.9% career) that will most likely produce a mediocre batting average, he will be a less exciting fantasy player next year.

For more on Jimmy Rollins and other Philadelphia Phillies, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Cincinnati Reds Pitchers

By R.J Anderson //

Biggest Surprise & 2011 Keeper Alert: Mike Leake

Jumping straight from college to the major leagues is something special and rare. Leake did it and did it about as well as anyone could reasonably expect. Twenty-two starts (and two bullpen appearances late in the year) held Leake’s innings total under 150. But a strong groundball tendency (over 50%) produced a solid 4.23 ERA. A little more control could help (3.19 walks per nine), though, given his pedestrian strikeout rate (5.92 per nine),

Biggest Bust: Aaron Harang

A really ugly season. Harang didn’t reach 150+ innings for the first time since joining the Reds. He also finished with an ERA over 4.50 for the second time in three years. His strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate increased, and his home run issues remained. He was one of the most underrated pitchers for a stretch between 2005 and 2007. Nowadays he’s an average starting pitcher at his best, and a mess at his worst.

2011 Regression Alert: Homer Bailey

Bailey pitched a lot better than his 4-3 record and 4.59 ERA might suggest. He showed an improvement in his strikeout-to-walk ratio, with his K rate spiking to a near-elite 8.26 K/9 IP. Look for positive regression in his fantasy stats in the near future; he’s a 2011 breakout candidate.

For more on Mike Leake and other Reds, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Cincinnati Reds Hitters

By R.J Anderson //

Biggest Surprise & 2011 Keeper Alert: Joey Votto

Votto has consistently been underrated. He hit .322/.414/.567 last season, yet nobody seemed to notice (he finished 22nd in Most Valuable Player voting). The Reds’ surge to the playoffs this season (combined with an even more impressive .324/.424/.600 line. Votto increased his homer output to 37, runs scored to 106 to RBI to 113, while stealing an eye-opening 16 bases. He was the best first baseman in the National League by both real life and fantasy standards and is an auto-keep for next season.

Biggest Bust: Orlando Cabrera

It’s hard to point to a 35-year-old’s decline as a bust, but Cabrera continued to slip toward a permanent state of unrosterability. His experience managed to trick Dusty Baker into hitting him leadoff for far too long, and then number-two for too long, even though his .303 on-base percentage screamed for a demotion. The Reds and Cabrera hold a mutual option for 2011. There’s a chance he returns, but he could end up backing up Paul Janish or someone else in 2011. Avoid.

2011 Regression Alert: Jonny Gomes

Not because he overplayed his means, but because he provides a perfect example of what regression to the mean looks like. In the first half, Gomes hit .277/.330/.471 with 11 home runs in 278 at-bats. He overplayed himself then with a .330 batting average on balls in play. In the second half his BABIP dropped to .294 (essentially his career average) and Gomes saw his line drop to .251/.324/.383. Gomes’ home run rate actually nosedived in 2010, and his awful defense makes him a long shot for an everyday job next year. Look elsewhere.

For more on Joey Votto and other Redlegs, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season In Review: Texas Rangers Hitters

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Mitch Moreland

When the season started, the Rangers had hoped that one of their young first basemen would take hold of the position and become a fixture in the lineup. They got their wish, just not the name. After Chris Davis’ struggles, Jorge Cantu’s inability to adjust to the AL, and Justin Smoak’s trade to Seattle, Moreland was guy for Texas at first base. In 47 games, he hit .255/.364/.469 with nine home runs. He also showed the ability to take a free pass with an above-average 14.5% walk rate. He did strike out a lot, and his home run-to-fly ball rate is likely unsustainably high. But with no one else stepping up at the position, he is likely to get his fair share of playing time in 2011.

Biggest Bust: Ian Kinsler

A preseason favorite of Bloomberg Sports, Kinsler missed 59 games and spent 69 total days on the DL with an ankle sprain and then a groin injury. When he was healthy, Kinsler hit .286 with a career-high on-base percentage of .382. That said, he hit a career-low nine home runs and his slugging percentage was just over .400. Whether the injuries took a toll on his power, we don’t know, but with such high expectations headed into the season, Kinsler did not live up to the hype in 2010. That said, a healthy Kinsler could bounce back in 2011 to put up big numbers from the keystone. He certainly looked good in Game 2 of the ALDS today, launching a James Shields pitch deep into the left field bleachers.

2011 Keeper Alert: Josh Hamilton

.359/.411/.633 with 33 home runs, 100 RBI, and 95 runs scored. This is what Josh Hamilton did in 2010 despite missing 29 games with injury. It should be enough to win him the AL MVP and a spot on your team next season, even if you’re in an auction league and he sports a high salary. Sure, his batting average was largely inflated by a ridiculous .390 batting average on balls in play, but the power is real and he did lower his strikeout rate. The injuries are a concern, but even if he makes an annual DL stint, the production of the 130-140 games he does play is enough to warrant first-round draft pick consideration.

2011 Regression Alert: Vladimir Guerrero

After hitting a career-worst .295/.334/.460 in 2009 for the Los Angeles Angels, Guerrero rebounded with the Rangers in 2010 to hit .300 with an .841 OPS. Healthy for the first time in a long time, he drove in 115 runs – surpassing 100 RBI for the first time since 2007. While Guerrero could have fallen in the category of surprise in 2010, his value in 2011 is tied directly to his home park. He hit .315 at home with an OPS of .881. On the road his average dropped to .284 and his OPS dipped under .800. If he returns to the Rangers, he should have another good season. If not, buyer beware depending on his landing spot.

For more on Josh Hamilton and the Texas Rangers check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

 

MLB Season In Review: Chicago Cubs Hitters

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise: Marlon Byrd

A surprise not in the sense that Byrd continued to hit, but that he continue to hit like he had never left Texas in the first place. His ISO dropped to .136 (his previous Rangers’ low was .152) but an increase on batting average in play (.335) and a drip in strikeouts helped buoy his line to .293/.346/.429. Byrd’s home runs and RBI totals predictably dropped sharply from Arlington levels. But Byrd’s runs scored total jumped to 84, the best result in seven years.

Biggest Bust: Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez reminded Cubs fans of washed-out prospect David Kelton more than himself while battling a thumb injury throughout the season. Ramirez’s power numbers (25 homers, 83 RBI) were excellent, but missing 38 games depressed his runs scored total, and Ramirez has now missed 30 games or more in three of the past four seasons. Worse from a fantasy perspective, Ramirez hit just .241 this season, his worst result in eight years. Ramirez’s .245 BABIP certainly hurt, but so too did his highest strikeout rate since 1998.

2011 Keeper Alert: Starlin Castro

The brightest spot of the Cubs’ season, Castro shot through the minors and made his major league debut in May. The 20-year-old hit .300 with 10 stolen bases and 53 runs scored. Someone with that kind of success at that age is usually setting himself up for a grand career. He’s probably a career keeper, especially at a scarce position.

2011 Regression Alert: Tyler Colvin

Colvin had a great year (20 homers, .500 slugging percentage in 135 games) despite never hitting well in the minors. The former first-round pick has talent, but expecting him to post those kinds of numbers heading forward might be a little much. As is, Colvin learns how to reach more often (.316 on-base percentage) or he risks losing playing time if/when his power numbers regress back to earth.

For more on Starlin Castro and better keeper prospects, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.