MLB Season in Review: Cincinnati Reds Pitchers

By R.J Anderson //

Biggest Surprise & 2011 Keeper Alert: Mike Leake

Jumping straight from college to the major leagues is something special and rare. Leake did it and did it about as well as anyone could reasonably expect. Twenty-two starts (and two bullpen appearances late in the year) held Leake’s innings total under 150. But a strong groundball tendency (over 50%) produced a solid 4.23 ERA. A little more control could help (3.19 walks per nine), though, given his pedestrian strikeout rate (5.92 per nine),

Biggest Bust: Aaron Harang

A really ugly season. Harang didn’t reach 150+ innings for the first time since joining the Reds. He also finished with an ERA over 4.50 for the second time in three years. His strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate increased, and his home run issues remained. He was one of the most underrated pitchers for a stretch between 2005 and 2007. Nowadays he’s an average starting pitcher at his best, and a mess at his worst.

2011 Regression Alert: Homer Bailey

Bailey pitched a lot better than his 4-3 record and 4.59 ERA might suggest. He showed an improvement in his strikeout-to-walk ratio, with his K rate spiking to a near-elite 8.26 K/9 IP. Look for positive regression in his fantasy stats in the near future; he’s a 2011 breakout candidate.

For more on Mike Leake and other Reds, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

1 Comment

I’d like to strongly and respectfully disagree on Mike Leake. Stats can be used to skew actuality; but I’d bet that based on what my eyes saw (I watch the Reds every night) he’ll have a subpar career trending downward from here. He will get more opportunity than most guys based on that decent first half he had. But the guy has stuff that lights up and says ‘hit me’.

He doesn’t have a place on this team with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, Arroyo, etc.

People are going to think Mike Leake is a player for 5 seasons and they’re going to wait to see Greg Maddux II and it will never come. The guy is destined for mediocrity. I have no clue why he was a first round pick; I’ve scouted baseball all of my life. His stuff doesn’t warrant it.

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