MLB Season in Review: Los Angeles Angels Pitchers

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Jered Weaver

Can it be considered a “good” surprise when a 16-game winner drops to 13 wins? In the case of Weaver, yes. Although his win total dropped, the righty was at his best in 2010. His strikeout rate was a career best 9.35 per nine innings, while his walk and home run rates dropped to career-low levels. He also made a career-high 34 starts and threw 224 innings. Once the owner of ace potential, Weaver has now reached ace status.

Biggest Bust: Scott Kazmir

Once upon a time, Kazmir had that ace status. Now, he’s more like a soft-tossing 35-year-old than a 26-year-old former foundation player. Making matters worse, he spent a total of 42 days on the DL with shoulder issues. When healthy, Kazmir made 28 starts going 9-15 with a 5.94 ERA in his first full season with the Angels. He struck out fewer than six batters per nine innings while walking nearly five per nine. Many cried foul when the Rays traded Kazmir last August, but it looks like Andrew Friedman made the deal just in time.

2011 Keeper Alert: Jered Weaver

It will be interesting to see if Weaver can maintain his high strikeout rate from this season. Even if it falls back to his career rate of 7.82 per nine, Weaver is one of the better pitchers in the American League. With nothing suggesting his 3.01 ERA was a product of luck, the 28-year-old appears to be entering the prime of his career.

2011 Regression Alert: Dan Haren

When the Angels acquired Haren, he was 7-8 with 4.60 ERA in 21 starts for Arizona. However, we informed you that Haren was due for some positive regression. With an above-average strikeout rate (9.0 K/9) and a minuscule walk rate (1.85 BB/9), the righty was getting some ridiculous bad luck on BABIP (.350) and home runs (1.47 HR/9). Although his Ks dropped (7.18 K/9) and his walks increased a bit (2.39 BB/9) as a member of the Angels, his home run rate was lowered to 0.77 per nine while his BABIP dropped to a manageable .286. The normalization of those two stats gave him a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts with the Angels. You can expect more of the same in 2011, even while others balk at his inflated overall numbers.

For more on Jered Weaver and the Angels pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: St. Louis Cardinals Pitchers

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise: Jake Westbrook

Acquired at the trade deadline in a three-way deal, Westbrook excelled in his 12 starts with the Cardinals, following in the footsteps of other veteran pitchers paired with St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan. Lasting 75 innings with a 2.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.48 ERA, he deserved better than a 4-4 record. A free-agent-to-be, Westbrook may or may not return to St. Louis; his performance certainly may have endeared him to some new potential suitors.

Biggest Bust: Kyle Lohse

Owner of mediocre seasons in the past, this one is on another level. Lohse endured a forearm injury while making only 18 starts. His 4-8 record and 6.55 ERA look bad, but his peripherals suggest his ERA should’ve been in the 4-5 range. Expect Lohse to be better next season, if only because he can’t be much worse.

2011 Keeper Alert: Adam Wainwright

Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the past 24-plus months, then no explanation is required. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball (7th in Pitching Wins Above Replacement this season) and should continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

2011 Regression Alert: Jeff Suppan

Suppan had a 3.84 ERA for the Cardinals. Let that sink in for a moment. Okay, now consider that Suppan’s seasonal ERA was 5.06. Believe it or not, 70% of his innings came with the Cards, and yet his nightmare performance with the Brewers still capsized his season. He’s not quite as bad as the 7.84 ERA with the Brew Crew, but he’s also not nearly as good as his 3.84 mark. Expect an ERA near 5 over a full season of starts (he’s at 4.69 for his career) with whomever decides he’s worthy of a roster spot next year. Just don’t let it be your fantasy team.

For more on the Cardinals, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: Chicago White Sox Pitchers

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Edwin Jackson

Ever the tease with his talents, Edwin Jackson looked like a top pitcher in his time with the White Sox. In 11 starts on the south side, E-Jax went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA. Even more impressive, he struck out 77 batters and walked just 18 in 75 innings. Without many fluky stats, and under Don Cooper’s instruction, maybe, just maybe, Jackson is finally living up to the hype.

Biggest Bust: Bobby Jenks

Since saving a career-best 41 games in 2006, Jenks has seen his saves and innings totals drop in each subsequent season. This year he saved just 27 games and tossed 53.1 innings. He dealt with injuries and landed in Ozzie Guillen’s doghouse throughout the season on his way to a career-worst 4.44 ERA.

2011 Keeper Alert: Chris Sale

When the 2010 season started Sale was a starting pitcher for Florida Gulf Coast College. He ended it as a relief pitcher in the Chicago White Sox bullpen. Chicago’s first-round pick in this June’s draft made just 11 minor league appearances before his call-up. The tall, lanky lefty was impressive in 21 appearances – going 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA and four saves. With a mid-90s heater, he struck out 32 batters in just 23 innings. His role for 2011 has yet to be determined (the White Sox drafted him as a starter), but he has a chance to thrive in either role.

2011 Regression Alert: Bobby Jenks

Despite mediocre traditional stats, Jenks had a good season in several peripheral categories. He struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings while walking just 3.1. With favorable control rates, he allowed just three home runs in over 50 innings. Jenks was extremely unlucky on batting average on balls in play: His .368 BABIP was well above the league average of .302 as well as his career number of .306. His future in Chicago is uncertain, but Jenks is a prime bounceback candidate in 2011, assuming he hasn’t lost the faith of his manager. 

For more on Chris Sale and the Chicago White Sox pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: Chicago White Sox Hitters

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Alex Rios

Following last season’s mid-summer waiver claim by the White Sox, Rios hit just .199/.229/.301 for his new club for the rest of 2009. However, the 29-year-old rebounded to post numbers above his career average across the board in 2010. His .284/.334/.457 slash line slightly bests his career .281/.331/.446. More importantly from a fantasy perspective, he regained his great power/speed combo, smashing 21 home runs while stealing 34 bases. He also crossed the plate 89 times and added 88 RBI. With 2009 looking like the outlier, expect numbers close to career averages again in 2011.

Biggest Bust: Gordon Beckham

Beckham impressed in his first 400 major league plate appearances by hitting .270/.347/.460 as a rookie second baseman. In nearly 500 PA this year, he hit just .252/.317/.378. His home runs dropped from 14 to nine and his RBI from 63 down to 49 – despite playing in 28 more games. There’s nothing that screams fluke in either season, which leaves Beckham’s owners scratching their heads moving forward. If he’s valued as a .250 hitter with light power at the draft table next year, though, he’s well worth grabbing at that price.

2011 Keeper Alert: Dayan Viciedo

A Cuban defector, Viciedo showed some of the power the White Sox hoped to see when they signed him. After hitting 20 home runs in 86 games at the Triple-A level, the 21-year-old was promoted to the big leagues. There, he it .308/.321/.519 with five home runs in just 106 PA. His average is fueled by a rather unsustainable BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and his plate discipline leaves much to be desired (two walks and 25 strikeouts). But with plus power at the hot corner, the Chicago third baseman of the future is one to keep.

2011 Regression Alert: Paul Konerko

Konerko has been one of the most underrated hitters of the past few seasons, but pardon me for being a little wary of a 34-year-old posting a career-best .977 OPS. While playing in one of baseball’s home run havens, nearly 20% of Konerko’s flyballs hit went over the wall. In addition to a favorable home run rate, his BABIP .326 was well above his career .285 level. A free agent this off-season, Konerko’s next destination is unknown. But it is very unlikely his OPS approaches 1.000 again next year. Don’t overbid.

For more on Alex Rios and the Chicago White Sox lineup, check Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: St. Louis Cardinals Hitters

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise: David Freese

Acquired three years ago in the Jim Edmonds deal, Freese’s pedigree made him an iffy candidate to become a starting third baseman in the major leagues. He made a solid case this season, though, hitting .296/.361/.404. There’s not a ton of power in that line, which tends to make fans and fantasy baseball players antsy with expectations of sluggers at the corners. His four home runs will not fool anyone into thinking he’s the reincarnate of Scott Rolen, but the injuries might. Not a recommended keeper.

Biggest Bust: Felipe Lopez

Coming off one of the best seasons of his career, Lopez registered one of the worst. He played better in a brief stint with Boston, but was downright horrendous with the Cardinals. A .231/.310/.340 line looks nothing like what we’ve come to expect from the 30-year-old. Folks in the industry aren’t thrilled with his personality and that could keep him from securing a major league deal (let alone a starting job) this off-season. There’s a chance Lopez could enter 2011 as a utility player.

2011 Keeper Alert: Colby Rasmus

Lost in the hoopla of Rasmus vs. Tony LaRussa was the fact that Rasmus played very well and managed over 500 plate appearances while hitting .276/.361/.498 as a 23-year-old. That’s more plate appearances than Curtis Granderson received, and nobody is going to pass on Granderson because of it. Rasmus’ future is bright whether he’s in St. Louis or another major league city, but two things are for sure, he’s going to be in the majors in 2011 and he’s going to hit.

2011 Regression Alert: Matt Pagnozzi

No batter really over- or underperformed expectations; therefore, Pagnozzi’s .892 OPS in 44 plate appearances registers as the individual season which you should not buy into as being legitimate.

For more on Albert Pujols, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: Colorado Rockies Pitchers

By Eriq Gardner //

Biggest Surprise: Jhoulys Chacin
Coming up through the Rockies’ farm system, Chacin always surpassed expectations. Although he consistently posted an elite ERA in the minors, and was named as one of the organization’s top prospects by Baseball America and other scouting services, many figured he’d be a #3 SP at best. After all, even in single-A, Chacin never struck out a batter per inning, usually a mark that often foreshadows success. In 2010, called up to the majors by the team as an injury replacement, Chacin blew away expectations once again. Not only did he post a remarkable 3.28 ERA in his rookie season, he also fanned 138 batters in 137 innings. A pitcher with that kind of K rate who also induces as many groundballs as Chacin does has a very bright future.
Biggest Bust: Huston Street
Street has had a rocky time of late. From 2005-2007, he looked to be one of the game’s elite closers. Then, in 2008, he struggled, lost his closer’s job, and was shipped from Oakland to Colorado in the off-season. In 2009, Street bounced back with 35 saves, a WHIP under 1, and a healthy strikeout rate. Going into this season, there wasn’t much reason to believe he wouldn’t be great again. Then, injuries took their toll, and Street struggled to find his rhythm. He ended the season on a high note with a strong September, but will hardly be forgiven for a lackluster 2010 campaign overall.
2011 Keeper Alert: Ubaldo Jimenez
Jimenez was a very good pitcher before the 2010 season. This year, he became elite. Overall, he posted 19 wins, a 2.88 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 214 strikeouts. Jimenez gave up only 10 HR all season, a remarkable feat for a pitcher who plays half his games at Coors Field.   Some might point to a slightly low BABIP and HR/FB rates as evidence he might regress. However, what’s particularly encouraging about Jimenez is his durability. He’s a freak of nature with an easy delivery that yields high-90s heat even into the late innings of a game. Invest.
2011 Regression Alert: Jason Hammel
Hammel was the sleeper’s sleeper heading into the 2010 season. Throughout his career, his peripheral numbers keep getting stronger and stronger, and Hammel seemed on the verge of taking a next step. Instead, he battled injuries and ended the season with a disappointing 4.81 ERA. But look closer: His xFIP (a stat that runs along a similar scale to ERA but strips out defense, park effects and other factors a pitcher can’t control) is exactly the same as it was in 2009, at 3.81. Hammel is getting better at striking out batters and keeps the ball on the ground, similar to the way Chacin and Jimenez do. He’s still a breakout waiting to happen. 
For more on Rockies pitchers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

(Audio) Behind the Numbers w Jeff Passan

By Bloomberg Sports //*

Listen now! – (loads in new browser – 14.6 megs)

Behind the Numbers
Hosts: Rob Shaw and Wayne Parillo
Guest: Jeff Passan
About the Guest:
Yahoo Sports national writer, co-author of Death to the BCS.
Enjoy the podcast and make sure to follow him on twitter

Total Running Time: 15:26

What’s Inside?

  • Who is Jeff? (0:35 – 1:16)
  • Talking ALCS (1:25 – 3:51)
  • The Umpires as the Story (3:58 – 8:04)
  • Kung Fu Panda and Him Not Playing (8:05 – 10:50)
  • Prince Fielder’s Body Type: He’s Not Fat He’s… (10:44 – 11:40)
  • The New Book – Death to the BCS(11:53 – 12:40)
  • Can College Sports Be Cleaned Up?
    (12:41 – 13:50)

Direct link to the conversation

More ways to get Behind the Numbers, talk to us, or just have a good time

For more on the hottest fantasy baseball topics and trends, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.

MLB Season in Review: Colorado Rockies Hitters

By Eriq Gardner //

Biggest Suprise: Carlos Gonzalez

Gonzalez’s superb season didn’t come completely out of the blue, as many pundits figured he’d be a good sleeper heading into the 2010 season. But the most valuable fantasy asset in all of baseball? Not even the Oracle of Apollo saw that one coming. This year, Gonzalez lived up to his power/speed potential and racked up a huge line of 34 HR, 117 RBIs, 111 runs, 26 steals, and a .336 average. How much is he worth going forward? The question was the subject of debate here recently: Yes, he’s a stud. No, questions remain.
Biggest Bust: Brad Hawpe
Hawpe was the model of consistency before the 2010 season. In four consecutive years, he hit no less than 22 HR and no more than 29 HR. In that time, thanks to his prowess versus right-handed pitching, he hovered right around a .287 average. This season, everything collapsed. Hawpe didn’t even get to double digits in home runs, hit a lowly .245, and experienced injuries and withering playing time that led to his release. Hawpe ended the season with Tampa Bay and will look to bounce back in 2011 – with very modest expectations.
2011 Keeper Alert: Troy Tulowitzki
Tulowitzki had quite a season in September alone, hitting 15 homers that month. Only five other shortstops in all of baseball hit 15 HR for the entire year. The strong finish more than made up for a broken wrist that cost him six weeks of action. Making just 529 plate appearances, Tulo finished with 27 HR, 95 RBI, 89 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .315 average. His strong year plus the lack of talent at the shortstop position throughout the league makes him a first-round pick next season. 
Regression Alert: Seth Smith
Smith had about the same playing time in 2010 as 2009: 398 plate appearances to 387. Smith increased his home runs from 15 to 17. But if there’s any reason why Smith might slip under the radar, it’s a disappointing batting average. In 2009, Smith flirted with .300. This season, Smith’s average fell to .246. However, give him a dozen more hits and double his playing time, and Smith is still a candidate to hit 25 HR and bat .300. There’s reason to believe: Hawpe is no longer sharing playing time, and Smith’s batting average on balls in play was an unlucky .256 in his disappointing season.
For more on Rockies hitters, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Chicago Cubs Pitchers


By R.J Anderson //

Biggest Surprise: Carlos Silva & Tom Gorzelanny

Silva went from one of the worst pitchers in baseball to a guy with a 10-6 record and 4.22 ERA. Meanwhile Gorzelanny went from unemployable by the Pirates to a 4.09 ERA in 23 starts. The Cubs had a disappointing season, but they managed to turn broken eggs into soufflé twice during the same season. Both pitchers have dealt with injury issues throughout the season, including Gorzelanny breaking a finger and Silva enduring elbow tendinitis in September alone.

Biggest Bust: Carlos Zambrano

Not because he pitched poorly, mind you, but because his temporary stints on the inactive list and in the bullpen wasted away his value and held him to 19 starts.

2011 Keeper Alert: Carlos Marmol

One of the most incredible seasons in baseball this or any season, Marmol’s 77.2 innings pitched come with 138 strikeouts and 40 hits allowed. For his career, Marmol has struck out twice as many batters as hits given up. That’s just unfathomable. The only aspect of his game that prevents Marmol from being perhaps the most dominant reliever in baseball (if he isn’t already) is his tendency to lose the plate: No closer walked more batters more frequently than Marmol (6.03 BB/9 IP – though that was, amazingly, nearly two full walks per game lower than his 2009 mark).

2011 Regression Alert: Carlos Silva

Silva struck out 6.37 batters per nine innings this season. His career rate is a little over four. Maybe he’s discovered the key to fanning heaven, but probably not. Be careful about overvaluing the latest season, even though pitchers like Esteban Loaiza have broken out at a similar age.

For more on the Chicago Cubs, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.

MLB Season in Review: Cleveland Indians Pitchers

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Chris Perez

When the team acquired Perez last season, they envisioned him as the closer of the future. They probably did not expect that to come in 2010, but they got what they wanted and then some. Perez racked up 23 saves in 27 chances this season with a 1.71 ERA – third-best in the American League among relievers with at least 50 innings of work. On top of the low ERA, Perez struck out nearly a batter an inning and allowed just four home runs in 63 frames. Defensive independent metrics suggest Perez’s ERA is a bit lucky, so beware of regression in 2011.

Biggest Bust: Kerry Wood

Signed to be the team’s closer is 2008, Wood never lived up to his contract in Cleveland. After injury, ineffectiveness, and the emergence of Perez, he was traded to the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Before the trade, he was 1-4 with a 6.30 ERA and three blown saves in 23 games. He has since pitched much better as a set-up man for the Yankees, but that does no good for Cleveland.

2011 Keeper Alert: Justin Masterson

Like Perez, the Indians acquired Masterson in 2009 with high hopes for the future. After working mostly out of the Red Sox bullpen in 2008 and 2009, Masterson made 29 starts for the Tribe this year. The fantasy stats, however, are a work in progress: 6-13 with a 4.70 ERA in 180 innings. However, he should be on your keeper list because…

2011 Regression Alert: Justin Masterson

While his traditional stats are not impressive, Masterson is better than his near-five ERA suggests. He has a decent strikeout rate of 7.0 K/9 IP and also lowered his walk rate to a career low 3.65 BB/9 IP. As an extreme groundball pitcher (59.9%), he relies heavily on luck and infield defense. In 2010 he was unlucky on batting average on balls in play: His BABIP .332 was well above the league average of .302. With some better luck, Masterson could eventually put up numbers similar to Trevor Cahill‘s 2010 campaign – maybe even next year.

For more on Justin Masterson and the Cleveland Indians’ pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.