Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw discuss players who may be on the road to the Hall of Fame.
Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre may be a surprise on this list for some people, but the longeivty of his career could land him in the Hall of Fame. The 33-year-old currently has 2,113 hits and 322 home runs. In order to get to 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, he would need to average 127 hits and 25 home runs per season until the age of 40. Beltre has a good chance to reach those benchmarks, as he plays in one of the most homer-friendly stadiums in baseball and could benefit from the designated hitter position in the American League down the road.
Paul Konerko is certainly a surprise when it comes to potential Hall of Fame candidacy. The White Sox first baseman, who is 36 years old, has 409 career home runs, and 500 homers is definitely in reach. He would need to average 22 home runs per year until he is 40 to get to 500. That would put him in a good position to get into the Hall of Fame, as he also won a World Series in 2005.
Andy Pettitte has 243 wins and 2,297 strikeouts in his career. He has the most postseason wins in history with 19, including four World Series wins. If he can get another seven wins and 203 K’s in the next two seasons, he would have 250 wins and 2,500 K’s, good for 47th and 31st all-time. That should give him a good shot at the Hall of Fame.
Roy Halladay has 192 career wins and 1,990 strikeouts. The 35-year-old would need 21 wins per season until he is 40 to reach 300 wins. Though he has dominated during certain parts of his career, he doesn’t have the longevity to get the numbers he needs to make it into the Hall of Fame, especially as he is battling a shoulder injury this season that should keep him out for six to eight weeks.
The odds are against Johan Santana making it into the Hall of Fame, as he is 33 years old and only has 137 wins and 1,956 strikeouts. He would need another five standout years to rack up the numbers to earn a spot in Cooperstown. He has had major surgery and it is uncertain how many more dominant years he has left in the tank.
C.C. Sabathia is as durable as they come and he should definitely make the Hall of Fame. He has 185 wins and is already 58th all-time in strikeouts with 2,119. If he finishes this season with another 90 strikeouts and averages 170 K’s for the next four years, he will have 2,889 K’s by the age of 36, good for 17th all-time. He would be well on his way to 3,000 K’s, a feat which only 16 pitchers have accomplished, all of them in the Hall of Fame aside from ineligible players.
Adam Dunn is 32 years old and has 388 career home runs. He should get into the Hall of Fame if he can reach 500 homers, which is certainly in striking distance. He has 23 home runs in 289 plate appearances this season. If he can hit another 17 home runs this year and enter the 2013 season with 405 in his career, he would need to average just 19 home runs for the next five seasons to reach 500.
Miguel Cabrera‘s home-run total of 277 through age 28 was the 13th-highest of any player at that age. If he hits 19 more home runs this season, he will enter his age-30 season with 310 career homers. From there, it would take him less than six seasons to get to 500 at his career rate of 33 home runs per 162 games. If he keeps playing the way he is now, he’s a certain Hall of Famer.
Ryan Braun joins Willie Mays and Darryl Strawberry as the only players to hit at least 180 home runs and steal at least 100 bases in their first six seasons. If Braun can hit 20 more homers this season, he will be one of two players to hit at least 200 home runs and bat at least .310 in his first six seasons, joining Albert Pujols. Braun is definitely on his way to becoming a Hall of Famer but he may need to prove himself more than others after testing positive for PEDs, even though his suspension was overturned.
Matt Holliday‘s Hall of Fame candidacy is iffy right now. If the 32-year-old can keep his average above .300 and record 1,032 more hits and 136 more home runs, he will be one of only 12 players with a .300 average, at least 350 homers and at least 2,500 hits, joining eight Hall of Famers as well as Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero. He is a very solid player, but not necessarily a player worthy of the Hall of Fame.
For more fantasy baseball insight, visit BloombergSports.com.
By Tommy Rancel //
Biggest Surprise: Alex Rios
Following last season’s mid-summer waiver claim by the White Sox, Rios hit just .199/.229/.301 for his new club for the rest of 2009. However, the 29-year-old rebounded to post numbers above his career average across the board in 2010. His .284/.334/.457 slash line slightly bests his career .281/.331/.446. More importantly from a fantasy perspective, he regained his great power/speed combo, smashing 21 home runs while stealing 34 bases. He also crossed the plate 89 times and added 88 RBI. With 2009 looking like the outlier, expect numbers close to career averages again in 2011.
Biggest Bust: Gordon Beckham
Beckham impressed in his first 400 major league plate appearances by hitting .270/.347/.460 as a rookie second baseman. In nearly 500 PA this year, he hit just .252/.317/.378. His home runs dropped from 14 to nine and his RBI from 63 down to 49 – despite playing in 28 more games. There’s nothing that screams fluke in either season, which leaves Beckham’s owners scratching their heads moving forward. If he’s valued as a .250 hitter with light power at the draft table next year, though, he’s well worth grabbing at that price.
2011 Keeper Alert: Dayan Viciedo
A Cuban defector, Viciedo showed some of the power the White Sox hoped to see when they signed him. After hitting 20 home runs in 86 games at the Triple-A level, the 21-year-old was promoted to the big leagues. There, he it .308/.321/.519 with five home runs in just 106 PA. His average is fueled by a rather unsustainable BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and his plate discipline leaves much to be desired (two walks and 25 strikeouts). But with plus power at the hot corner, the Chicago third baseman of the future is one to keep.
2011 Regression Alert: Paul Konerko
Konerko has been one of the most underrated hitters of the past few seasons, but pardon me for being a little wary of a 34-year-old posting a career-best .977 OPS. While playing in one of baseball’s home run havens, nearly 20% of Konerko’s flyballs hit went over the wall. In addition to a favorable home run rate, his BABIP .326 was well above his career .285 level. A free agent this off-season, Konerko’s next destination is unknown. But it is very unlikely his OPS approaches 1.000 again next year. Don’t overbid.
For more on Alex Rios and the Chicago White Sox lineup, check Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.
by Eno Sarris //
Fantasy managers should be taking a
good look at their teams and deciding where they have surpluses and
weaknesses. If you’ve got the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools, it’s a great time to look at the rest-of-season projections for your team, and do some trade analyzing.
in the first half, you’re looking for players who are not only great
producers, but also those who deliver the best return on investment.
A fantasy All-Star brings in the question of how much was spent on the player. Yes, it’s nice that Evan Longoria is playing well, but he cost first-round prices. Meanwhile, how many people got those 20+ home runs from Jose Bautista
for virtually free? Those managers are probably rolling in power
numbers, and benefiting quite nicely from their fantasy All-Star.
Use these fantasy All-Stars as your template for what great ROI looks like.
C Miguel Olivo
has a .319 batting average this year and a .249 career average. He’s
given his owners a great batting average and 12 homers at a tough
position to fill. He’s definitely a fantasy All-Star. But the gravy
train will most likely not continue. Olivo sports a .391 batting
average on balls in play for the year, which would be the
second-highest figure in the game if he qualified for the batting
title. It’s also almost 100 points above his career number and the
major league average. Yes, it’s nice that he’s walking at a career-high
pace, and that he’s cut his strikeouts down to one of the better rates
of his career. But Olivo’s batting average, and therefore his fantasy
value, will likely come way down. Then you’ve got Rockies backup Chris Iannetta, who has a BABIP (.214) that’s ready to go the other way. This is one All-Star that must be sold, almost at any price.
1B Paul Konerko
home runs and a .301 batting average plays at any position, especially
when they come from the late rounds of a mixed-league draft. Konerko is
a first-half fantasy All-Star, and he’s actually one that might stick.
Don’t assume his higher-than-normal batting average will fall. HIs
BABIP is not at all out of whack with baseball norms (.306), even if
it’s a little higher than his career number (.283). Even if the batting
average comes down a little bit, his power will be useful. His .560
slugging percentage looks a little high (.494 career), but he’s also
hitting flyballs at a career-high rate (46.5% this year, 41.3% career).
To top it off, his home runs per fly ball rate this year (17.6%) is not
at all strange next to his career number (16.6%). Unless you can full
proper value for Konerko, he’s a hold.
2B Rickie Weeks
This could really be Martin Prado, but he was covered recently
– and excellently – by Tommy Rancel in this space. So instead, it’s the
Brewers’ surprising spark plug who gets the award. If one All-Star so
far was a hold, and the other a sell, this one is right in between.
Weeks’ BABIP looks a little high (.335) but just last year he put up
a similar batting average (.272) with a slightly lower BABIP (.313). Of
course, he got hurt last year, and health has always been Weeks’
weakness. If you think he can avoid the injury bug, though, this
breakout looks legitimate. Weeks has already reached a career high in
homers (17) and we’re just past the All-Star break. Even if you tried
to sell, your leaguemates would probably want to pay a reduced price
because of Weeks’ injury history. So you’re best off holding, and
hoping the breakout continues.