Category: fantasybaseball

Dodgers Southpaws: Clayton Kershaw and Ted Lilly

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

The Dodgers are thriving this season, sitting alone in first place in the National League West.  A great deal of credit is certainly owed to Andre Ethier and NL MVP favorite Matt Kemp.  The two outfielders have been prolific run producers and Kemp is fresh off one of the most dominant months in recent history.

While offense is certainly important, it has been the team’s pitching that has let the leads stand.  While Chad Billingsley has returned to form this season and Chris Capuano has been a pleasant surprise, the key arms in the rotation have been southpaws Clayton Kershaw and Ted Lilly.

Kershaw and Lilly could not be more different.  Kershaw is a phenom, who at not even 25 years old is already a Cy Young winner and on the fast track to Cooperstown.  Lilly is a 36-year-old veteran hurling on his sixth Major League team.  While both left-handers have very different pasts, they are both a part of an important present for the Dodgers.

Kershaw was as good as it gets last season with 21 wins, 248 K’s, and a 2.23 ERA.  What’s even more promising is that he is on a better track this season.  Though six starts, Kershaw was just 2-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 15 walks a season ago.  This season, Kershaw remains a perfect 2-0, while his walks have been nearly cut in half and his ERA is just 2.63.

Aside from comparing Kershaw to his own personal milestones there are few other peers who have enjoyed his level of excellence.  Of course, his dominant stuff coming from a left-handed arm slot may remind some of Dodgers Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax.  Truth is, Kershaw is very different than Koufax.  Kershaw could end up having a far greater impact than Koufax.

Koufax was a late bloomer who did not hone his control until he was 25 years old.  He then went on to have six of the most impressive seasons in baseball history before an arm injury prematurely ended his career.  Kershaw has been pitching at a high level since he broke into the league in 2008.  Here’s a comparison of both Dodgers aces through 24 years old.

Year Record IP K BB ERA Games
Kershaw 49-28 754 779 286 2.86 124
Koufax 36-40 691.2 683 405 4.10 174

To put Kershaw’s early performance in even greater perspective, consider that while the 24-year old southpaw’s next win will be his 50th of his career, Ted Lilly, a two-time All-Star, had just five wins at the age of 25.  In many ways, Lilly is more similar to Koufax based on his late bloomer status.  Of course, Lilly never quite had the glory days of Koufax, but when you look at his career trends he does resemble a fine wine that gets better over time.

Age Games Record IP K ERA
20-25 42 5-7 152.1 151 5.73
26-30 143 54-51 783.2 648 4.38
30+ 161 69-52 1001 848 3.67

The Dodgers have a nice blend of young talent and proven veterans.  While the hope is that Kershaw will remain effective far longer than Koufax did and perhaps remain as relevant in his mid-30s as Lilly, what matters most for Dodgers fans is the present.  Right now, the two southpaws are as good as any tandem in baseball.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Jason Bay, Francisco Cordero, and Henry Rodriguez

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

Watch Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw breakdown the top players to buy low and sell high on the fantasy baseball stock report.

 

Selling Jason Bay:

With the Mets in rebuilding mode, they really needed a hot start from Jason Bay to take the pressure off the veteran and highly paid left-fielder.  Though he did sock three home runs through the first 15 games, Bay still lacked consistency as his average was .240 and he is fanning more than once per game.  Alas, another tough break for Bay will take him off the field.  A fractured left rib suffered on a diving play in left field lands him on the DL.  Zach Lutz, a nice power prospect was called up, but I see Kirk Nieuwenhuis likely taking over in left-field once Andres Torres returns and Lucas Duda stays in right field.  Bay may return to a platoon situation.

Selling Josh Collmenter:

From hero to goat!  Josh Collmenter was being celebrated last season, as he managed 10 wins with a 3.38 ERA and an even more impressive 1.07 WHIP thanks to his incredible control combined with a .237 opposing batting average.  This year he has been slammed by the opposition, surrendering six home runs in four starts.  On top of that, Collmenter is likely standing in the way of Diamondbacks phenom Trevor Bauer.  The DBacks made the tough call of pulling Collmenter from the starting rotation.

 Buying Francisco Cordero:

Talk about a heck of an insurance policy, the Blue Jays happened to buy exactly that when they signed Francisco Cordero as a back up to Sergio Santos as the team’s closer.  Cordero got off to a rough start this season, but now that he is the final line for the Blue Jays he is back in a comfortable spot.  He nailed his first two save opporutnities, but has struggled since, allowing runs in four of his last five outings.  At 37 years old, Cordero is getting up there in years and the strikeouts have declined, but he still gets the job done with 34 or more saves in each of the last five seasons.  He’ll hold down the fort until Santos return in at best a month.

Buying Henry Rodriguez:

The Nationals have been known for their bullpen for a few years now, but when Drew Storen went down with an injury, it was thought that the newly acquired Brad Lidge would fill the role in the interim.  It turns out that Nats have a better option in the 25-year-old Henry Rodriguez who has surrendered a earned runs in just one appearance all season while nailing down five saves.  A certain flame-thrower, Rodriguez does have his control issues, but he also has allowed just five hits so far this season.  We’ll see if he can continue to overcome his control issues, as he is 5-6 in saves.

Hurlers Ross Detwiler and Jarrod Parker Making Their Mark

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

The Philip Humber perfect games reminded us that sometimes it takes even first round picks a little while to blossom at the Big League level.  Humber was selected with the third pick of the 2004 draft, but it wasn’t until seven years later and on his fourth franchise with the luster of his amateur career diminished that he stuck as a starter.  He is now a part of MLB history and a player with some fantasy value.

The 2007 draft was stacked with pitching talent.  David Price was the top selection out of Vanderbilt and has been one of the best hurlers in baseball over the last few years.  Madison Bumgarner came in at number 10 and has already made an impact in the Big Leagues.  However, four other pitchers were drafted between Price and Bumgarner.  Daniel Moskos was the fourth overall pick, but he has been converted into a relief pitcher and is currently pitching in the minor leagues after mixed results with the Pirates last season.   The eighth pick Casey Weathers is also a reliever, but has yet to make it past Double-A.

Then there is Ross Detwiler and Jarrod Parker, the sixth and ninth picks respectively.  Detwiler had a bumpy ride to the Major Leagues, but is finally taking hold of a starting spot in the Nationals rotation.  The 26-year-old rotated between the starting rotation and bullpen last season, and at the end of the season had an impressive 3.00 ERA.  Perhaps the best fifth starter in the game, Detwiler calls home to a pitcher’s park and with Nationals sluggers Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche coming back to life, he should have some run support as well.  It’s looking like tough luck for Chien-Mien Wang, who is currently out with an injury.  With a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, Detwiler has been one of the best hurlers in baseball this season.

The ninth pick out of the 2007 draft, Jarrod Parker is the top prospect in the A’s system and they couldn’t hold him out any longer.  After four solid starts at Triple-A, the A’s are ready for Parker in the Big Leagues.  It’s time to get to know the 23-year-old right-hander.

Parker was acquired for Trevor Cahill this off-season.  In his one Major League start with the D-Backs last season, Parker did not allow a single run to score in 5.2 innings of work.  Parker was a tad hittable this season in the minor leagues, but this isn’t about the short-term.  This is supposed to be the start of something special and with the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum, Parker should be picked up in all formats.

In his American League debut, Parker was brilliant allowing just one run to score while pitching into the seventh inning.  Parker scattered seven hits and fanned five batters, and while he did not get a decision, the A’s did win 5-4 over the White Sox.  On Tuesday, Parker tries on a different group of Sox, as the A’s host Boston.  It should be safe for fantasy managers to try out their brand new fantasy phenom.

For more baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com

Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Jurrjens, Ross, Roberts, and Schierholtz

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

Watch Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw breakdown the top players to buy low and sell high on the fantasy baseball stock report.

Selling Jair Jurrjens:

The Braves hurler is now in the minor leagues after an atrocious start.  Jurrjens has been one of the more underappreciated hurlers of the last few years.  He won at least 13 games in three of the last four seasons, twice with an ERA sub-3.  However, this season, he lost some of his stuff as he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of four starts and not only is he walking way too many batters, but the opposition is hitting .411 off him.  With his fastball in the decline, perhaps a confidence boost in the minor leagues will do the 26-year-old some good. Feel free to release him from your fantasy team.

Buying Cody Ross:

Fantasy managers may have forgotten that Cody Ross once carried a power bat in Florida, surpassing 20 home runs in back-to-back seasons.  Sure, he has some World Series heroics a couple of years ago, but playing for the Giants kept him in a pitcher’s park that ate away at his power stats.  That changes this season as Ross is now playing at Fenway and already has five home runs, three of which have come at home.  A streaky hitter, Ross has had home runs in consecutive games twice already this season.  With Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury out, Ross should enjoy regular playing time.  This is a player to target for his power.

Selling Ryan Roberts:

The good news for super utility man Ryan Roberts was the 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases last season.  The bad news for Roberts was the .239 average over the second half of the season.  Unfortunately, Roberts resembles the second half player from last season as his average is sub-Mendoza line with just 10 hits in 66 at bats.  At 31 years old, it’s fair to say that what we saw last season was too good to be true.  Roberts is now losing out on playing time to Cody Ransom.

Buying Nate Schierholtz:

A 1-17 struggle has brought the average down to .283, but Nate Schierholtz remains an intriguing fantasy option and should continue to get regular playing time in the outfield for the Giants.  The addition of Buster Posey has a huge impact in the lineup, and Schierholtz has proven capable of hitting with power and surprising speed over the last few years.  If this is finally the first time that the veteran will get 400 at bats, Schierholtz can surprise with some fantasy value.

Infielders to Target: Mike Aviles, Bryan LaHair

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

The Red Sox willingness to trade away both Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie was certainly bold, but really the bigger story was the franchise’s confidence in former Royals middle infielder Mike Aviles.

A career .288 hitter, Aviles has been a fine contributor in the Majors when healthy.  The New York native making himself at home in Boston doesn’t have much power, but in a solid lineup he can pile up many runs.  He is also a sneaky stolen base threat.  Think of Aviles in the same mold as Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick, except for a much lower cost and with shortstop eligibility.

Aviles and the Red Sox played at the hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago this weekend.  Though he finished hitless in his final seven at bats, the 31-year-old veteran makes for a great start in the next series against Oakland.  The series will be played in Fenway Park where he already boasts two home runs and a .333 average this season.

The Cubs slugger Bryan LaHair reminds me a bit of Michael Morse, a late bloomer with plenty of power who finally broke out last season with the Nationals.  LaHair, is a 29-year-old slugger who entered the season with just five home runs to his credit.  He spent the last six seasons at Triple-A and last season blasted 38 round-trippers with a .331 average.

So far LaHair is batting .382 with the majority of those hits good for extra bases.  While those numbers will regress quite a bit, that does not mean that he can’t still end up as one of the greatest surprises of the season.  LaHair can blast 25 home runs with 90 RBI.

In many ways, he is an upgrade over Carlos Pena for the Cubbies at first base.  He may not be the defensive gem that Pena is, but with an average .150 better than what Pena has offered the last few seasons, the Chicago fan base is not complaining.  Neither should fantasy managers.

For more fantasy insight visit BloombergSports.com for access to Front Office 2012!

The Sustainability of the Orioles Big Three: Arrieta, Hunter, and Hammel

 

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

 

The biggest surprise in baseball could very well be the Baltimore Orioles and what is most shocking is that the success is not a result of the offense as much as it is the pitching.  Let’s take a look at the three over-performing hurlers to determine whether or not the team’s success is sustainable.

Jake Arrieta is seemingly an innings eater who is in the prime of his career.  He does not have much control, he is not a strikeout artist, and he surrenders too many home runs.  His season got off to a great start with a 7-inning two-hit gem against a weak Minnesota offense.  Since then, he has been quite ordinary.  That’s what fantasy managers should expect going forward, as Arrieta epitomizes the average pitcher. 

Tommy Hunter is a far more interesting pitcher.  The Orioles hurler had some success in 2010 with the Rangers, picking up a 13-4 record with a 3.73 ERA.  Hunter is not a strikeout artist, nor does he try to be one.  The big right-hander makes a living keeping his defense busy.  So far, Hunter has been a bit uneven with two gems that resulted in a combined one earned run.  In the other two starts he surrendered a combined six home runs.  Fantasy managers will and should pass on his services since he does not rack up the K’s, but he’s been a winner so far in his career and should be a solid middle of the rotation hurler for the O’s. 

Jason Hammel is looking like a star in Baltimore.  Now that he escaped Colorado, the air is a little bit thicker and the ball is finding gloves in the field.  Additionally, the K’s are coming twice as frequently as last season.  Part of the reason for the sudden success is the addition of a new pitch to the arsenal.  Hammel now throws a sinker and he is getting a lot of ground balls with the new pitch.  The question is whether this type of success is sustainable or if a new scouting report will allow the hitters to make adjustments.  Considering he is already 29 years old and has been in the leagues for several years, it is unlikely a radical change will unfold this late in his career.

The Orioles do have some stars in the lineup as Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters should all be in their prime.  The starting rotation is another matter and the problem here is that the team is loaded with overachieving middle of the rotation hurlers.  It is very unlikely that they will be able to sustain this success. 

For more baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com

Has the Regression begun for Blue Jays SP Kyle Drabek?

 

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

 

Kyle Drabek was a top prospect when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Phillies for perennial Cy Young contender Roy Halladay.  The Blue Jays fan base was hoping that Drabek would be able to make an immediate impact, but that did not occur at all in 2010, as the son of former Pirates All-Star Doug Drabek found some success at Double-A, while also walking four batters per nine innings.  That is a statistic that Drabek could get away with in the minor leagues, but a different story in the Majors.  Drabek lost all three starts in 2010.

 

Last season, it was assumed that Drabek would hold a spot in the starting rotation, and sure enough he did open the season with the Blue Jays.  The stay did not last long as he ended the season with just 14 starts and a 6.06 ERA.  The main issue was his lack of control, as he ranked as the worst in the Major Leagues in BB/9 as well as BB/K. 

 

Now 24 years old, Drabek is getting another opportunity this season and he shined bright in the first two games.  In fact, Drabek walked just one batter in his second start as he pitched into the eighth inning and surrendered just one earned run to a solid Orioles offense.  Suddenly, Drabek was again en vogue and was a hot pickup in fantasy baseball. 

 

Alas, doubt has returned to the mind of this fantasy expert.  Even though Drabek remains undefeated with a 2-0 record and the Blue Jays have won all three of his starts, his control was lost in his last start, as he issued six walks in 5.1 innings.  The fact that the Royals did not capitalize has a lot to do with Drabek’s ability to miss bats (he boasts 15 K’s in 18 innings) and a little bit of luck. 

 

On Thursday, the Orioles face Drabek for the second time this season.  In many ways, Drabek remains a wild card as he has great stuff, including a 94 MPH heater with movement, but if his control is lost the numbers could take a hit.  I’d expect a bit of regression for the next few months of the season.  I see Drabek offering up an ERA closer to four and could end up on a career path similar to fellow Blue Jays hurler Brandon Morrow.  In other words, Drabek is not for the risk adverse.  He will have moments of glory, but also fits of frustration.

Trade Stephen Strasburg At the All-Star Break

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

To say that Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg has lived up to expectations so far this season would be an understatement.  The Opening Day starter is a perfect 2-0 while allowing just three runs to score in 25 innings.  He also seems to be pitching with little exertion, as his 25:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests fine control, but we have not seen the 100 MPH heat that Strasburg is capable of.

It is clear that hitters have little chance off him, as he has not surrendered a home run in two years and the opposing batting average remains well under .200 in his nine starts over that period.  At 23 years old, Strasburg still remains very young and for that reason the Nationals are handling him with gloves.

In fact, the biggest strike against Strasburg’s fantasy value is the fact that the Nationals have already announced that he will throw only 160 innings this season.  That equates to just another 135 innings of dominance for those keeping track.

Even Strasburg limited to 160 innings works out to be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball.  However, to maximize his value, fantasy managers should consider trading the ace around the All-Star break.  By then they should have enjoyed a dominant stretch with Strsburg potentially ranking as the best hurler in baseball.  However, with his innings limited in the second half of the season, Strasburg becomes little better than a dominant reliever.

While the Nationals are keeping his future in mind with hopes that the franchise has many years of dominance ahead, fantasy managers must realize that Strasburg is only a short-term fix in this year’s fantasy leagues.

For more fantasy insight visit Bloombergsports.com

Rookie Outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis is a Hit with the Mets

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

Even the Mets and their medical team had to know before they traded away Angel Pagan that Andres Torres never played as many as 140 games in a season.  So, therefore, it should come as no surprise that the outfielder who was hobbled in spring training strained his left calf in the season opener.

Fortunately, for the Mets they not only have an able replacement, but a player who could very well represent the team’s future at the position in Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  The 24-year-old nabbed in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft had some of his own injuries in recent years, but he is a big guy with some pop and speed.

This may be a Wally Pipp situation where Torres will never really replace Nieuwenhuis.  This has been a special season so far for the Mets as they have managed to rebuild while still competing in a very tough division… Alas, it is still very early.

Another option for the Mets would be to shift Nieuwenhuis to left field and split time with Jason Bay.  It’s a sad realization for the Mets to realize that Jason Bay does not warrant a starting position, but at this point Andres Torres and Nieuwenhuis could be more valuable.

Nieuwenhuis enters the weekend series with the Giants with a .375 average thanks to a six game hit streak.  He boasts six runs scored and has a home run and a stolen base.  He is a shocking early contender for the NL Rookie of the Year.

For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com.

Rookie Southpaw Drew Smyly Bringing Smiles to Detroit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6RBYqpDmxk

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

Get to know Drew Smyly, a 22-year-old southpaw nabbed out of Arkansas with a second round pick in 2010. Smyly made his Major League debut last week and the nerves were obvious as he surrendered three walks and gave up four hits in just four innings of work. More impressively, Smyly did fan four batters and allowed just one run as he was removed with a no decision.

In his one year of minor league service, Smyly was dominant. He finished 11-6 with a 2.07 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning and impeccable control. Smyly took the mound on Tuesday against the Royals and was sensational. He this time only walked one batter, and though he surrendered seven hits, they did not lead to any earned runs. Unfortunately, a lack of run support in the early innings led to another no-decision for the rookie.

A true test follows this weekend, as Smyly is slated to face the Rangers on Sunday. Considering how well the Rangers have been hitting, it may be a good idea to keep the southpaw on your fantasy bench. On the other hand, Smyly is becoming a must-start these days with a 0.90 ERA through his first two starts.

For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com