Tagged: top prospect

Has the Regression begun for Blue Jays SP Kyle Drabek?

 

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports

 

Kyle Drabek was a top prospect when the Blue Jays acquired him from the Phillies for perennial Cy Young contender Roy Halladay.  The Blue Jays fan base was hoping that Drabek would be able to make an immediate impact, but that did not occur at all in 2010, as the son of former Pirates All-Star Doug Drabek found some success at Double-A, while also walking four batters per nine innings.  That is a statistic that Drabek could get away with in the minor leagues, but a different story in the Majors.  Drabek lost all three starts in 2010.

 

Last season, it was assumed that Drabek would hold a spot in the starting rotation, and sure enough he did open the season with the Blue Jays.  The stay did not last long as he ended the season with just 14 starts and a 6.06 ERA.  The main issue was his lack of control, as he ranked as the worst in the Major Leagues in BB/9 as well as BB/K. 

 

Now 24 years old, Drabek is getting another opportunity this season and he shined bright in the first two games.  In fact, Drabek walked just one batter in his second start as he pitched into the eighth inning and surrendered just one earned run to a solid Orioles offense.  Suddenly, Drabek was again en vogue and was a hot pickup in fantasy baseball. 

 

Alas, doubt has returned to the mind of this fantasy expert.  Even though Drabek remains undefeated with a 2-0 record and the Blue Jays have won all three of his starts, his control was lost in his last start, as he issued six walks in 5.1 innings.  The fact that the Royals did not capitalize has a lot to do with Drabek’s ability to miss bats (he boasts 15 K’s in 18 innings) and a little bit of luck. 

 

On Thursday, the Orioles face Drabek for the second time this season.  In many ways, Drabek remains a wild card as he has great stuff, including a 94 MPH heater with movement, but if his control is lost the numbers could take a hit.  I’d expect a bit of regression for the next few months of the season.  I see Drabek offering up an ERA closer to four and could end up on a career path similar to fellow Blue Jays hurler Brandon Morrow.  In other words, Drabek is not for the risk adverse.  He will have moments of glory, but also fits of frustration.

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Jhoulys Chacin, Mat Latos, Matt Moore

BY ROB SHAW

Twitter: @RobShawSports

There was once a time when drafting a Colorado Rockies pitcher in your fantasy league was nothing but trouble, but after we saw Ubaldo Jimenez not just tame the altitude, but dominate in it, fantasy managers are willing to invest in a Rockies hurler.  One pitcher who is drawing a great deal of interest is Jhoulys Chacin.

The 24-year-old hurler was hurt last season by a lack of defensive and offensive support as his record was just 11-14 and more than 10% of runs scored against him were unearned.  However, some of his struggles were self-inflicted.  Chacin walked 87 batters and surrendered 20 home runs.  Though he still managed a solid 3.62 ERA, he was flirting with danger despite the stellar .231 average against.

What makes Chacin so effective in Coors is that he keeps the ball on the ground.  In fact, of all pitchers in the Majors last season with at least 100 innings pitched, Chacin ranked seventh with a 57% ground ball rate.

While Chacin is a solid pitcher the question is whether he will become a great pitcher.  In order to do so he has to improve his control, which would result in a lower WHIP, better ERA, and a career-high in wins.  At 24 years old, there is a great deal of upside for Chacin and it is fair to assume that he’ll take a step in the right direction this season.

Typically pitching in a pitcher’s park is more advantageous than a hitter’s bandbox.  There is an argument to the contrary for Reds hurler Mat Latos who makes his way from San Diego’s PETCO Park to Cincinnati.  The greatest liability in Latos statistics last season was the 9-14 record.  Otherwise, the second-year hurler was stellar with a 3.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

The idea here is that Latos could use a little run support.  With Adrian Gonzalez having left the west coast for Boston last season, Latos had few batters to offer the run support needed for a winning record.  That should not be an issue this season as he once again will have an MVP candidate manning first base with Joey Votto, plus the presence of Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce among others in the lineup.

Expect a rise in the ERA as the hitter-friendly ballpark can’t be ignored, but it will come with nearly 200 strikeouts and around 15 wins.

The Rays will compete once again in the AL East thanks to the fine young talent making up their starting rotation.  While the Yankees and Red Sox acquire talent in trades and via free agency, the Rays secure their stars via drafts.

The next top prospect to follow the path of David Price and Jeremy Hellickson as prospects turned stars is rookie Matt Moore.  In his first taste of the Big Leagues, Moore actually pitched more post-season innings than he did in the regular season.  In 19.1 combined innings, Moore fanned 23 batters compared to just six walks.

In the minor leagues, Moore dominated while fanning batters at a shocking rate.  The sunshine state southpaw surpassed 200 strikeouts in both seasons despite pitching 155 innings or fewer.  Similar to Hellickson last season, Moore will likely make an immediate fantasy impact, though with more K’s.  On the other hand, the Rays will likely play it safe and limit him to around 180 innings.

While most fantasy managers prefer proven commodities when it comes to fantasy drafts, there are very few hurlers with the upside of Moore’s, and yet you can likely nab him as late as the 10th round.  For more fantasy insight visit BloombergSports.com.