BY ROB SHAW
To say that Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg has lived up to expectations so far this season would be an understatement. The Opening Day starter is a perfect 2-0 while allowing just three runs to score in 25 innings. He also seems to be pitching with little exertion, as his 25:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggests fine control, but we have not seen the 100 MPH heat that Strasburg is capable of.
It is clear that hitters have little chance off him, as he has not surrendered a home run in two years and the opposing batting average remains well under .200 in his nine starts over that period. At 23 years old, Strasburg still remains very young and for that reason the Nationals are handling him with gloves.
In fact, the biggest strike against Strasburg’s fantasy value is the fact that the Nationals have already announced that he will throw only 160 innings this season. That equates to just another 135 innings of dominance for those keeping track.
Even Strasburg limited to 160 innings works out to be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, to maximize his value, fantasy managers should consider trading the ace around the All-Star break. By then they should have enjoyed a dominant stretch with Strsburg potentially ranking as the best hurler in baseball. However, with his innings limited in the second half of the season, Strasburg becomes little better than a dominant reliever.
While the Nationals are keeping his future in mind with hopes that the franchise has many years of dominance ahead, fantasy managers must realize that Strasburg is only a short-term fix in this year’s fantasy leagues.
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BY ROB SHAW
The New York Mets can finally move on from the loss of Jose Reyes, as they opened the season with two straight wins against the Braves. The team has accomplished the hot start because of the rise of young talent including Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Ike Davis as well as some help from old friends most notably David Wright and Johan Santana.
The two wins were not exactly expected. Mets fans had been in mourning for several months as the news of the Madoff scandal attracted the most attention and the poster boy for the Mets reversal of financial fortune was the loss of the greatest shortstop in franchise history, Jose Reyes to the rival Marlins.
Wright understands as much as anyone how difficult it is to replace a talent like Reyes, but he also knows that the team has to move on, “You know one player, granted he’s very good and he’s a great player and great teammate, but you cannot worry about who is not here. I have a tremendous relationship with Jose, I’ve got a ton of respect for him, like I said, I think he’s one of the best position players to put this Mets uniform on, but that’s not how this game works, we’ve still got games to play and games to win and we need other players to step up and fill that void,” said Wright.
Another former teammate of Reyes and Wright, Endy Chavez explains the shock he felt when word came out that Reyes was no longer a Mets shortstop, “That was unbelievable, I understand this is a business, but to Reyes leaving New York, just saying Jose Reyes is like saying New York Mets, so it’s something crazy, but you know things happen in baseball and that’s one of those things.”
Finally, Reyes himself understands that he has to move on. His role goes from helping the Mets to now competing against them with a long-time rival, “You know in the beginning it was a little weird for me because all of my career I played with David the same thing, but now I have to adjust to the new team, so I know I was there with David for a long time and we every year became very good friends, I’m going to miss David and I wish him all the best.”
While the loss of Reyes is certainly hard to swallow for Mets fans, one thing that would make it easier is the return to prominence of Wright. The 29-year-old franchise player has tallied five hits and two RBI through the first two games of the season. It looks like the drawn in fences could be exactly what Wright needs to get his confidence back. The young up-and-coming Mets look at Wright to set the tone.
“Huge, huge key for us, David is. Not only as a player, but clubhouse guy. He’s awesome in the clubhouse and he keeps us motivated, we follow him and where he goes we go,” says Mets slugger Lucas Duda.
First baseman Ike Davis adds on Wright, “Definitely a big part of our lineup and he’s going to be the leader of the team and it’s really exciting seeing him play again.”
Meanwhile, the pitching has been great and the biggest surprise of them all is Johan Santana. After picking up 29 wins the first two seasons with the Mets, Santana has just 11 over the last two seasons, missing all of 2011 due to surgery. However, he was back on the hill on Opening Day and gave the type of performance that will gain confidence in the ball club.
“He’s been the bright spot so far this spring, just his health, the way he’s throwing the ball, so I’m excited about what he’s going to bring to the table this year, and it will be a lot of fun to play defense behind him,” says Wright.
As impressive as the Mets have been, this is still very much a rebuilding year. In fact, if Jason Bay and/or Johan Santana can sustain their production, there is a really good chance that they will get traded. The Mets may be able to hang around .500 for the majority of the season, but the bright days ahead will be when their top pitching prospects develop into stars that can compete with Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg on the Nationals. Maybe then, the big three in Philadelphia will no longer be in their prime. The question is whether David Wright will still be a Mets third baseman.
BY ROB SHAW
It was a lively off-season in the Big Leagues for certain as the best leadoff hitter and two of the best sluggers moved to new teams this winter. While a great deal of the attention turned to the Marlins who unveiled a new logo, new jerseys, a new stadium, and new acquisitions, the quiet Nationals should attract the most attention because of their sudden rise in expectations in the NL East.
The news with the greatest impact coming from the Nationals during the off-season wasn’t the trade for Gio Gonzalez or even the latest news from top phenom Bryce Harper. Instead, the it came at the end of February when the face of the franchise, Ryan Zimmerman, signed on the dotted line to a six-year $100 million deal. The deal sends an important message to the Nationals that they are not just about developing young talent, but keeping that talent around for the years to come to compete with the best in the NL.
The star third baseman told us, “I’ve been here through the not too good years, I wanted to make sure to be here for the good times that are about to come.” Zimmerman added, “They’ve done it the right way, they drafted good, they built out their farm system, kind of made it so that we won’t be good for one or two years, but 10 or 15.”
The fact that Zimmerman opted to stay long-term with the Nationals was met with affirmation from his teammates. Hurler Jordan Zimmerman said, “Yeah he made it clear that he wanted to stay here and stay here for the long haul, and build a team around him. The owners are all for it and I think it is going to be good for the club in the long run.”
There are a lot of household names on the Nationals this season. Jayson Werth did not meet expectations last season, we discussed Zimmerman, Michael Morse is now a star after what he did last year, but one guy who is sneaking under the radar despite the fact that he posted sensational numbers last season was Jordan Zimmerman.
Zimmerman is an ace. Last year, he actually truly was the number one, and maybe that explains why his record is not as impressive as his ERA and his WHIP. On the other hand, this year he will be matching with a lot of number twos and threes since Strasburg is the opening day starter. This is really big for the Nationals, because that gives them an advantage in every game that he pitches. Maybe 15-17 wins is a realistic target for the young hurler.
Zimmerman is optimistic about the team’s chances of clinching the division. “We had some key pickups this year and I think we are going to have a great starting staff and picked up Lidge and a couple of other guys in the bullpen who are going to help out big time. So I am pretty excited to get going this season.”
I see Washington as the favorite in the NL East. The Phillies may have that big three, but there’s a big three in Washington now that is younger and perhaps will end up more durable this season. You look at the offense for the Nationals, they took away Jayson Werth from the Phillies and with the Phillies having injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, there are some serious concerns there. I think the offense is better for the Nationals, perhaps the numbers won’t reflect that because of the pitcher’s park.
The Braves are a good team. I don’t think they have the rotation that the Nationals have. The Marlins are a good team too. They don’t have the depth in the rotation. Also, the Nationals bullpen ace is Tyler Clippard, one of the best middle relievers in baseball, and when Drew Storen comes back healthy, he could be lights out yet again.
This Nationals team should be the favorite in the NL East. And it’s great because it’s going to surprise a lot of people. So as far as expectations, they should be sky high. Washington fans, you have something to be excited about this season.
Again accompanied by their live studio audience Rob Shaw and Michelle Steele break-down some Pitcher Pick-Up’s for your Fantasy Baseball team, as well as discuss Jim Riggleman and the Nationals.
John Danks, SP, White Sox
Remember when John Danks was 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA. Well that was at the end of May, and as it turns he hit rock bottom. Ever since, Danks has won all three starts while allowing a combined three runs to score. His ERA, down a full run to 4.29 and his record a not as bad 3-8. Folks, this is a young southpaw with 40 wins over the last three seasons with a solid strikeout total. This is a player you want on your team. Pick him up if he’s available.
Jason Vargas, SP, Mariners
The last time Jason Vargas took the mound, he tossed a 3-hitter. He improved to 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA and an even better 1.18 WHIP. While his lack of K’s keep him away from stardom, his solid control and favorable home park makes him a solid fantasy spot starter. His career record at Safeco is 13-10 with a 3.18 ERA.
Tim Wakefield, SP, Red Sox
At 44-years old, Tim Wakefield is the oldest player in the game, but he is an oldie but goodie. The hurler, who is three wins shy of 200 for his career has won four of his last five decisions, and his ERA isn’t all that bad either at 4.26 ERA. What makes him unique, even among fellow knuckleballers is his control. Wakefield’s 1.14 WHIP is incredible when you consider he has the slowest fastball in the Majors at just 73 MPH.
Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals
He is not a closer, but yet just like my favorite middle reliever Al Alburquerque, he is worth adding to your fantasy lineup. Tyler Clippard boasts a 1.85 ERA and sensational 0.89 WHIP. Then there are the strikeouts. With 56 K’s in 43.2 innings, he is doing even better than last season when he finished with 112 strikeouts. Picking up Clippard is a sneaky way to improve in strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA for your fantasy team.
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by Eno Sarris //
Lefty Tom Gorzelanny is moving again, this time from Chicago to our nation’s capital. Trying to figure out how he’ll fare in his new uniform will require some guesswork, but looking back might help us look forward.
For the past season and a half, Gorzelanny has been a decent pitcher underneath it all – an 8.2 K/9 IP and 4.2 BB/9 IP are good enough to exist on the back end of most fantasy rotations in most parks, even with a groundball rate right at average (40.7%). Looking back at his work in Wrigley Field may help us understand the effects his context may have had on his overall statistics, though, since his overall ERA the last two years has been pretty mediocre (4.47).
In his career, the southpaw has thrown 117 2/3 innings in the Friendly Confines. Those innings have produced a 5.43 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 – worse than his regular work. That’s not too surprising, given the park factors for home runs in the park (119 for lefties and 102 for righties). In both of his ‘resurgent’ seasons, he’s been better on the road than at home. It’s a beautiful park, but he may not miss it.
His new park should treat him better, but we can’t use past numbers to tell us much. He’s only pitched three total innings in the Nats’ new stadium. What we can see is that the home run park factors are much more friendly (94 for lefties and 100 for righties). That doesn’t really tell the whole story – look down the list of right-handed park factors for singles (98), doubles (95), and triples (82) are all pitcher-friendly. In general, the park suppresses right-handed offense by about three percent, while his former park inflated that same offense by three percent.
That swing in context should really work for Gorzelanny, who has been much better against lefties than righties over his career. Against lefties, he’s managed a 8.95 K/9 IP, 3.22 BB/9 IP and a 44.1% groundball rate. Against righties, those numbers drop to 6.05 K/9 IP, 4.38 BB/9 IP and a 41.5% groundball rate.
Gorzelanny is demonstrably better against lefties, and will get some help from the park against righties. It’s true that the Nationals scored 30 fewer runs than the Cubs last year, but in most categories other than wins, this southpaw will enjoy his trip south. He’s a fringe draft pick in mixed leagues, but his possible improvement makes him a decent, if later-round pick, in deeper leagues.