Results tagged ‘ Randy Wolf ’
By R.J. Anderson //
Biggest Surprise and 2011 Keeper Alert: John Axford
Axford will begin the 2011 season as the Brewers’ closer. That’s the only thing in the 27-year-old’s career that seems like a given, as he’s had one heck of a ride to this point. A former Yankee farmhand with a handlebar mustache, Axford had seven Major League appearances before appearing in 50 games last season and saving 24 games with a 2.48 ERA. A devastating strikeout rate (11.79 K/9 innings) points to a closer with staying power, even if his walk rate (4.19 BB/9 IP) is a bit worrisome and his flukishly low home run rate’s likely to edge higher next year.
Biggest Bust: Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman managed to break the 600 career saves mark in 2010, which represents a high point in his season. Otherwise, 50 appearances and 31 earned runs suggests the man who made “Hells Bells” a ballpark anthem is near the end of his career.
2011 Regression Alert: Randy Wolf
Give Wolf some credit, as he was able to squeak out one more inning in 2010 than he did in 2009, despite making 34 starts both years. Unfortunately, for Wolf and the Brewers, his ERA shot up nearly a full run, and his peripherals suggest he just didn’t pitch as well as that 4.17 figure might suggest. The National League Central is not a good division and Wolf’s history suggests he should bounce back in 2011. The problem being, of course, folks will overvalue his 2010 performance based on the ERA, innings, and wins. Let someone else overbid.
By Eno Sarris
Because of the volatility of the position
and the sheer number of available starters, it’s usually a good idea to
wait to draft your pitching in the middle rounds. Finding a 13th-round starter that cam match Randy Wolf‘s 2009 performance is the goal. Let’s look at one starter who could match Wolf’s ’09 numbers this season: Wolf, again.
33-year-old left-handler owns a B-Rank (Bloomberg’s proprietary ranking
of all players) of 160. That’s slightly ahead of his 174.70 average
draft position as supplied by the Bloomberg Fantasy Sports Engine.
That means Wolf he figures to come reasonably cheap despite posting
strong numbers in 2009: a 3.23 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11 wins and 160
strikeouts. Compare those numbers to Gavin Floyd, who owns a 136
B-Rank on the heels of his 4.06 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last season, and you would be
forgiven for thinking that Wolf is a value pick.
You’d be forgiven, but you’d probably be wrong.
are plenty of warning signs emanating from this Wolf in wolf’s
clothing. The first should be obvious from his injury history. Take a
look at Corey Dawkin’s Pitch f/x Injury Tool,
you’ll see an extensive list of elbow problems (seven separate
trips to the DL over his 11-year career, 453 days lost to the DL,
and three arm and shoulder surgeries, including Tommy John surgery in
2005). Per his Bloomberg player card, you can also see that Wolf threw
the second-most pitches of his career last year (3,286); the last time
he threw that many pitches in a season, he lost 40 innings to injury
The warning signs are not only injury-related. There are plenty of
worrisome numbers too. Check out this chart from the Bloomberg’s Fantasy
engine, which shows Wolf’s strikeouts and ERA versus the top ten NL
you can see, Wolf sports a decent, but not great strikeout rate: 6.72
strikeouts per 9 IP, vs. the major-league average of 6.99 in 2009.
MLB’s average batting average on balls
in play (BABIP) usually comes in around .300 – it was .303 in 2009. Wolf’s career number in that category is
.294. Last year? Wolf posted a career-best .257 BABIP, tied for the lowest in baseball among qualified starting pitchers with Jarrod Washburn. That’s likely an unsustainable figure.
it gets worse – Wolf is moving
from a park with a .876 park factor for home runs (meaning Dodger
Stadium suppressed home runs by 12.4%) to a park with a 1.069 park
factor for home runs (hitters gain a 6.9% edge with the long ball).
That means that just based on park factor alone,
Wolf is likely to yield several more home runs in 2010. When you
consider that Wolf’s home run rate last year (1.01 HR/9) was better
than his career mark (1.13 HR/9), you’ll see how he benefited from
pitching in Dodger
Stadium. Lastly, Wolf stranded 77.5% of base runners
last year, which was much better than the league average (71.9%).
Wolf’s strand rate was 16th-highest in the majors, and much higher than
number (73.5% LOB).
So, once you take a harder look at Randy
Wolf, you realize that much of his success last year was
context-specific. He had a great defense behind him in a great
pitcher’s park last year, and had
some good luck on balls in play. Look somewhere else for your mid-round
pitcher in 2010.
For more information on pitchers that are better values than Randy Wolf, and hundreds of other players, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy application.