By Eriq Gardner

A reader wrote in to ask whether or not the numbers support sitting a starter in the first week of the season.

I understand the reasoning behind the strategy: In the first week of the season, starters might be dangerous, as they haven’t built up the stamina to go long into games, may not have fully gotten control of their arsenal of pitches, and might be expected to be less likely to put up wins and more likely to damage a fantasy teams pitching ratios.

But let’s look at the numbers.

Unfortunately, we couldn’t find any “first week” splits anywhere, but we were able to gather together data for pitchers who made starts between April 5 and April 12 going back five years. We can call this set of data, “Starters in Early April,” which may be better anyway since what we’re talking about is a pitcher’s seasonal maturity at this early part of the year. We compared these data to how starters performed overall in the past five years.

The results of the study were somewhat surprising.

Let’s start with endurance and the potential for wins. We’re shocked to learn there’s hardly any difference at all. Starters in early April average 5.8 innings per game started. Starters average the same 5.8 innings per game started throughout the season. In early April, starters win the games they start 34% of the time. Throughout the season, that only ticks up to 35%. In early April, starters are a little less likely to be on the hook for a loss and a little more likely to be given a no-decision, but unless your league counts those stats, that’s not very important.

Let’s go to ERA and WHIP.