What a Catch! Talking McCann, Avila, Mauer, and Ramos

 

What a Catch!

 

The Best: Brian McCann, Braves

One of the most consistent catchers over the last five seasons has been Braves backstop Brian McCann.  Though McCann has never had 25 home runs or 100 RBI in a season, the Georgia native has been an iron man, avoiding serious injury while blasting 20-plus home runs in each of the last five seasons.  Best yet, at just 27 years old, McCann is still young and in his prime.

 

The Surprise: Alex Avila, Tigers

When Victor Martinez was originally brought into Detroit, it was assumed that he was responsible for most of the Tigers catching duties.  It turns out that Martinez is truly the team’s designated hitter, while Alex Avila is the team’s top catcher.  Just 24 years old, Avila has evolved into a slugger with 10 home runs and 45 RBI this season.

 

The Bust: Joe Mauer, Twins

Injuries have certainly played a large role in the Twins disappointing season.  The problem is that even though Mauer has returned to the field, he is still seeking the potent bat that won him an MVP award just a few years back.  Mauer’s last home run came on September 15, 2010.  He has now gone 72 at bats without a dinger this season and he boasts just seven RBI.

 

Mauer is hurt by several factors including a lack of protection in the batting order and he calls home to a pitcher-friendly ballpark.  Though he should improve this season, he likely will struggle to live up to his expectations entering the season.

 

The 2nd Half Sleeper: Wilson Ramos, Nationals

While most catchers break down late into the season, Wilson Ramos should be able to avoid a great deal of the wear and tear.  That’s because at 23 years old, Ramos work behind the plate has yet to take its toll, plus the Nationals originally split playing time between Ramos and Ivan Rodriguez.  In other words, as the team looks to provide Ramos with the majority of the playing time going forward, he should be fresher because of the limited action to start the season.  A power bat with impressive plate discipline, Ramos is a rising talent.

Who’s on First?: A Look at First Basemen from the Best to the Bust

Who’s on First?

 

The Best: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

The likely AL MVP has made a smooth transition from the pitcher-friendly Petco Park to the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  Thanks in large part to the fine start by Jacoby Ellsbury, Gonzalez has been driving runs in at a career-high pace.  While his power is evident in the 25 doubles and 16 home runs, it’s his consistency that makes his .356 average sustainable.

 

The Surprise: Mark Trumbo, Angels

The loss of Kendry Morales for another season would have been even more devastating had rookie Mark Trumbo not filled in admirably.  The 25-year old first baseman has belted 13 home runs with a solid seven steals.  Though he can improve on his plate discipline and raise his .258 average, Trumbo’s 28 extra bases have gone a long way for the Angels.

 

The Bust: Adam Dunn, White Sox

Playing in the homer-friendly US Cellular Ballpark with an improved lineup around him seemed like a slam dunk for Adam Dunn.  Instead, the White Sox slugger who has had no less than 38 home runs over the last seven seasons has been downright awful.  His .173 average is nearly 100 points lower than last season’s batting clip, and his power has been zapped to a .316 slugging percentage.

 

The 31-year old veteran has a few possible reasons for his lack of production.  He is new to the American League and he has never before been a designated hitter on a regular basis.  It may be time for the White Sox to call in Harold Baines to help mentor the fallen slugger.

 

The 2nd Half Sleeper: Mitch Moreland, Rangers

Texas may be a launching pad for sluggers, but during the dog days of summer, the heat takes its toll.  That’s why fantasy managers should not be too concerned about the fact hat Mitch Moreland remains a platoon player despite the .287 average and 11 home runs.  Come August, Moreland is bound to be fresh.  On that note, Moreland has yet to get into a big hot streak that is bound to lift his season totals past 20 home runs.  Expect a big second half from the rising first baseman who blasted nine home runs in 47 games after the All-Star break last season.

 

Why Mark Ellis — Yes, Mark Ellis — Could Be A Second Half Sleeper

By Eriq Gardner //

When Mark Ellis was traded from the Oakland Athletics to the Colorado Rockies this past week, most people shrugged.

Ellis is 34 years old and only was only batting .217 at the time of the trade. His ownership in mixed fantasy leagues is less than 5% and didn’t move an inch after being dealt. Nothing to see here, right?

Well, not so fast.

Call us crazy, but there’s definitely something intriguing about Ellis going forward this year.

For one thing, Ellis is going from a terrible home hitter’s environment at the Oakland Coliseum to one of the friendliest home hitter’s environments at Coors’ Field. You say, “So what? We’re still talking about Mark Ellis!”

But check out just how badly playing in Oakland has hurt Ellis’ production these past few seasons. Here’s a look at the five players who have had the biggest OPS home-road split differences from the beginning of the 2007 season until today:

Adrian Gonzalez tops this list and is one of the greatest reasons we were quite high on him in the preseason. (How’s that working out?) Park effects get a good amount of press, but is it possible we still underrate the influence?

A few more things why Ellis could be a second half sleeper.

First, Ellis’ road OPS over the past few years is 0.762, which isn’t spectacular, but check out his road stats compared to a player at a much deeper position who is owned in virtually every league. Mark Ellis on the road vs. Billy Butler on the road (since 2007):

  • Mark Ellis: 1054 AB, 25 HRs, 135 RBIs, 136 Runs, 27 SBs, .282 AVG
  • Billy Butler: 1092 AB, 22 HRs, 135 RBIs, 120 Runs, 1 SB, .282 AVG

Nearly identical, except that Ellis has more speed and plays a position where good production is tougher to come by.

Second, he’s not just headed away from Oakland to play in a neutral environment. He’s going to Colorado, which based on historical evidence, could inflate Ellis’ statistics even beyond the decent production he’s put up on the road in past seasons.

Plus, he’s not merely going to a hitter’s environment, but also playing with better teammates, including Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith. That’s also an improvement on what he had in Oakland.

Finally, and it’s only been a couple of games so far, but Ellis is looking at a pretty nice lineup opportunity in Colorado. On Friday and Saturday, Ellis hit in the #2 slot. It’s too early to establish where Ellis will hit in the Rockies lineup going forward, but this is certainly a good sign. The fact that Ellis puts the ball into play rather than striking out (85% contact rate this season) and has a decent, if-not-spectacular amount of speed means he could indeed stick there. He plays pretty good defense and the team just optioned Eric Young Jr. and Chris Nelson to the minors, so he’s got pretty firm job security as well.

Don’t be surprised to see Mark Ellis’ ownership numbers climbing in future weeks.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Add Bastardo?

By R.J. Anderson //

Charlie Manuel hinted on Tuesday that Phillies reliever Antonio Bastardo will be the team’s first choice to close out ballgames in the wake of Ryan Madson being placed on the disabled list. Despite that, Bastardo remains available in two-thirds of ESPN’s fantasy leagues entering Thursday. Is Bastardo worth the addition for potential cheap saves, or do the fantasy owners know something more about him than the Phillies?

The easy answer is that Bastardo is still undervalued.  The lefty has a 0.96 earned run average on the season, a 0.86 WHIP, and has more strikeouts than innings pitched. Bastardo’s career splits do not indicate he has much in the way of a platoon split, so the Phillies can use him against lefties and righties without worry. Such flexibility could allow the Phillies to feel more comfortable with Bastardo in the ninth than other options, but it might backfire, and have them using him earlier in the games too.

The drawback to adding Bastardo is that the Phillies have had the third-least save opportunities in baseball, only ahead of the Rays and Dodgers. This is due to a confluence of factors. The Phillies, as a good team, often beat their opponents by more than three runs, and their rotation goes deeper into ballgames, allowing for more complete game opportunities. Add in other stuff—like walk-off wins—and it’s understandable how this can happen.

Adding Bastardo comes down to your league and roster. If Bastardo only holds value as a long-term closer, then consider passing, but if a few saves and holds the rest of the way is just what the doctor ordered, then pick him up and watch him go.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Why Jason Heyward is Overrated (In Fantasy Baseball)

by Eno Sarris //

He has plenty of upside over the rest of his career. He’s very exciting and he’s young (22). He has excellent plate discipline. He looks like an athletic masher. He can play a fine corner outfield. But Jason Heyward is over-rated when it comes to his production over the rest of this season. And the key is where he’s hitting the ball.

First, let’s go over the components of batting average.

One component is contact, since the batting average on a strikeout is zero. Heyward is striking out almost exactly as much (24.3%) as he did last year (24.6%), and both numbers are worse than the national average (20% most years). He also whiffs on more swings (10%) than the average hitter (8.5%), so his per-pitch numbers support the fact that he makes contact at a below-average rate. Only four qualified batters that have struck out over 24% of the time this year have a batting average over .280, and among those four, the lowest BABIP is .344. If one or two of them still end up with a good batting average by the end of the year, that small group probably won’t include Heyward.

Another part of batting average is speed. Heyward is an athletic fellow, and has 15 stolen bases so far in his young career. He’s also only been successful on 65% of his attempts, which is below the break-even point — you need to get the extra base twice out of every three times to make the gamble ‘worth it.’ Bill James has a four-component speed score that uses triples, runs, stolen bases and stolen base success rates to judge a player’s speed in the context of the league. A 5.0 speed score is average. Heyward has a 4.8 so far in his career. He’s got average speed, but not enough that you can expect him to beat out a slow dribbler to short.

The last component of batting average is also important for the rest of non-batting average value: power. He’ll steal some bases, he might even up that batting average a little once his current BABIP (.263) moves, but that power is the key to his value the rest of this year. We know that fly balls offer more power — around 10% of them leave the park, and they have a much higher slugging percentage than ground balls (.547 to .252 around the league this year). Well, Heyward just hits too many ground balls. He’s now hit 55% of his balls on the ground over his first season and a half. He’s also hit close to two ground balls to every fly ball so far.

That would be good enough to be the tenth-highest ground-ball rate in the major leagues among qualified batters this year. Only eleven players hit two ground balls for every fly ball. The most powerful player above him on either of these lists is Yunel Escobar with his .416 slugging percentage and .140 ISO. It’s not great company if you’re expecting power. Last year, Heyward used a 17.8% line drive rate and 16.8% HR/FB rate to muscle 18 balls over the wall. This year, those numbers are 13.6% and 15.9% respectively, and he might need a little luck to manage the same home run pace.

Unfortunately for most of his fantasy owners, the Atlanta outfielder wasn’t valued as a .275-hitting, 18-home-run having, average-speed showing outfielder this year. As he ages and puts more weight on his frame and more loft in his swing, it’s obvious that this young man with a keen eye and a line drive stroke will achieve greater heights. But this year? In a re-draft league? It might be time to shop him.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Outfielders On the Waiver Wire

Again manning the charge alone, fantasy expert, Rob Shaw takes a look at some of the best Outfielders in baseball that still might be hanging around your league’s fantasy wire.

Nick Swisher, Yankees

The Yankees bats seem to be waking up, and while he won’t make the All-Star game, Swisher can very much still fix this season.  His average is just .245 right now, but consider that he is actually batting .316 this month with a stellar six home runs and 18 RBI.  To put that in perspective, in last year’s All-Star season, the most home runs Swisher belted in a month was seven and the most RBI was 19.  So he could actually outperform last year’s figures in the few days remaining in June.

 

Vernon Wells, Angels

Blue Jays fans are very much familiar with the streaky nature of Vernon Wells, but this is the first time that the Angels fan base sees it in person.  After a dismal start to the season, Wells is heating up with three home runs and 7 RBI over the last seven games.  Wells still has some power, he has nine blasts so far after swatting 31 dingers last season.

 

Nick Markakis, Orioles

Despite the .296 career average and solid arm in the outfield, Nick Markakis is often considered a disappointment because the power never developed.  However, at 27 years old, this Long Island native still has some time on his side.  This month Markakis is batting .337 with 13 RBI, which marks a season high.  He also has six steals on the season, so keep the Orioles outfielder on your watch list.

 

BJ Upton, Rays

Dropped in a lot of fantasy leagues thanks to the .219 average as of June 22, BJ Upton is making a case to be a great pickup.  He has at least one RBI in each of the last four games and has gone deep in the last three games.  On the season, Upton has 20 steals with 11 home runs while racking up 40-plus in runs and RBI.  While he will hurt you in average, Upton has the rare ability to help in every other statistic.  You have to pick him up if he’s available in your fantasy league’s waiver wire.

For more fantasy advice from the Shaw-man himself, check out our YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/BloombergSports

Lonnie Chisenhall Set To Debut: Buy or Pass?

By Tommy Rancel //

In many ways a top prospect is like a new toy for fantasy owners. You hear about it weeks, months, and in some cases, years before it is ready to be released and from there the anticipation builds. Once it hits the shelf, there is a rush to be the one on your block – or in this case, league – to get it first.

This season, we have had several top positional prospects make their debut as: Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rizzo and Dustin Ackley have all debuted to much fanfare. While their debuts were heralded and their careers may be long and successful, it is rare for a prospect to jump into the major leagues with a large degree of success. It does happen from time to time, but those tend to be outliers more than the rule. With the impending call up of Lonnie Chisenhall, any potential buyer should beware of the production under that new toy shine.

Like all of the names above, Chisenhall, a Top 25 prospect according to Baseball America’s pre-season rankings, is projected to have an excellent career in the majors. On an Cleveland Indians team that has quickly fallen back to the back, the young third baseman could provide them with the offensive spark they need. He projects to hit for a lot of power (51 home runs in 373 minor league games) and will take a few walks as well. Meanwhile, he has not hit for a high average (.250-.270 range) and has been know to strikeout a bit (averaged a strikeout once every 5.8 at-bats in minors).

In addition to the “average” average and the strikeouts, Chisenhall, like many other young left-handed sluggers, has struggled with a platoon split. He has mashed against right-handed pitchers while struggling to hold his own against lefties. As the competition increases, and the usage of specialists in the bullpens, the Indians may opt to platoon him at first instead of a baptism by fire against southpaws.

Still, young power-hitting third baseman do not come around very often. If you are in a really deep AL-Only league, Chisenhall’s talent and potential for playing time against right-handed pitchers makes him a pick-up option. That said, if you are looking for hot corner power in standard leagues or shallower AL leagues names like Ty Wiggington and Mark Reynolds are likely lurking on waivers with similar power potential for the rest of the season without the need to prove they can hit major league pitching out of the park.  

For more on Chisenhall and other top prospects, check out Bloomberg Sports Front Office.

Around the Horn: Waiver Wire Pick-Ups

Absent the beautiful Michelle Steele, Bloomberg Sport’s own Rob Shaw goes around-the-horn offering some advice on how to put a solid bat in your fantasy line up.

Catcher: Jorge Posada, Yankees

This was a sleeper in many drafts because of the fact that he was going to be in the lineup everyday without the grueling task of catcher, but apparently it took some time for Jorge Posada to adjust to the designated hitter role.  He hit .132 in April, and didn’t have a homer in May, but in June, Posada is hitting .393 with two home runs.  His season average is suddenly a more respectable .234 and his 8 home runs rank well amongst catchers.  Looks like Posada is still a fantasy option.

 

First Base: Daniel Murphy, Mets

He has five hits over the last nine games with four RBI and four runs.  His average is now at .296 for the season and despite just four home runs, he does have four steals, which is good for a corner infielder.  Murphy is simply a professional hitter who will offer consistency and a great deal of position eligibility, he can play first, second, and third.  Just don’t put him in the outfield, the Mets learned that lesson a few years back.

 

Second Base: Danny Espinosa, Nationals

We have called him the Nationals version of Dan Uggla on this very show and we are not messing around.  The rookie second baseman is putting up an Uggla type season with 14 home runs, 47 RBI, but the improvement is the nine stolen bases, which justifies his entry into your fantasy lineup despite the .242 average.  At this point, Espinosa has been an upgrade over Uggla.

 

Shortstop: Jeff Keppinger, Astros

He kind of fits the Daniel Murphy mold, Keppinger is a crafty hitter despite a lack of power and speed.  At 31 years old, Keppinger is not a prospect, so his playing time may diminish, but it till be tough to remove him from the Astros lineup as long as he is hitting .336 with a couple of home runs.  Keppinger once hit .332 in 67 games for the Reds back in 2007, but he has never hit more than seven home runs or swiped more than four bases.

 

Third Base: Ty Wigginton, Rockies

With four home runs over the last four games, there is no one hotter than Ty Wigginton right now.  By the way, all four of those home ru8ns have come on the road, so don’t think this is a product of Coors Field.  His average is just .275 on the season, but his 12 home runs are legit, after all, he hit 22 bombs last season.  Similar to Murphy, this ex-Mets infielder is a jack of all trades and offers eligibility throughout the infield.

If you need more Rob Shaw, check out our YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/BloombergSports

Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Pick Ups & Jim Riggleman

Again accompanied by their live studio audience Rob Shaw and Michelle Steele break-down some Pitcher Pick-Up’s for your Fantasy Baseball team, as well as discuss Jim Riggleman and the Nationals.

John Danks, SP, White Sox

Remember when John Danks was 0-8 with a 5.25 ERA.  Well that was at the end of May, and as it turns he hit rock bottom.  Ever since, Danks has won all three starts while allowing a combined three runs to score.  His ERA, down a full run to 4.29 and his record a not as bad 3-8.  Folks, this is a young southpaw with 40 wins over the last three seasons with a solid strikeout total.  This is a player you want on your team.  Pick him up if he’s available.

 

Jason Vargas, SP, Mariners

The last time Jason Vargas took the mound, he tossed a 3-hitter.  He improved to 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA and an even better 1.18 WHIP.  While his lack of K’s keep him away from stardom, his solid control and favorable home park makes him a solid fantasy spot starter.  His career record at Safeco is 13-10 with a 3.18 ERA.

Tim Wakefield, SP, Red Sox

At 44-years old, Tim Wakefield is the oldest player in the game, but he is an oldie but goodie.  The hurler, who is three wins shy of 200 for his career has won four of his last five decisions, and his ERA isn’t all that bad either at 4.26 ERA.  What makes him unique, even among fellow knuckleballers is his control.  Wakefield’s 1.14 WHIP is incredible when you consider he has the slowest fastball in the Majors at just 73 MPH.

Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals

He is not a closer, but yet just like my favorite middle reliever Al Alburquerque, he is worth adding to your fantasy lineup.  Tyler Clippard boasts a 1.85 ERA and sensational 0.89 WHIP.  Then there are the strikeouts.  With 56 K’s in 43.2 innings, he is doing even better than last season when he finished with 112 strikeouts.  Picking up Clippard is a sneaky way to improve in strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA for your fantasy team.

 

For more Fantasy Baseball news and advice check out our YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/BloombergSports

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Report: Who is Chris Heisey?

Rob Shaw and Michelle Steele report on the waiver wire, including Yankee killer Chris Heisey, joined for the first time ever by a live studio audience!

Brandon Beachy, SP, Braves

Beachy has just two wins on the season, but with a 3.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, fantasy managers are picking up a reliable hurler.  Best of all, Beachy, who was undrafted of Indiana Wesleyan, is a strikeout artist.  In fact, fresh from more than a month on the disabled list, Beachy fanned 11 batters in just 6 innings on Thursday night.  He has 57 K’s on the season in just 50.1 innings of work.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Cubs
He is an all or nothing type slugger, but the good news is that lately he has been more all than nothing.  He has gone three straight games with a homer, and make that 5 dingers over the last seven games.  Sure, only once did he get an additional hit in those games, but the RBI are piling up as well as the runs scored.  This is a guy who can swat 40 in a season, so feel free to pick up the hot bat.

Travis Hafner, 1B, Indians

One of the biggest surprises this season has been the play of the Indians, and if you’re wondering where they’re getting their offense from, well the answer is an oldie, but goodie.  Travis Hafner has turned back the clock to hit .338 this season.  This is a former .300-plus hitter, so the fact that he is raking is not unprecedented.  He is 34-years old, so invest accordingly.

Chris Heisey, OF, Reds 

Yankees fans are wondering who the heck is Chris Heisey.  Turns out this newfound Yankee killer, Red Sox fans will love this, went to a college called Messiah!  Not sure if he is the chosen one, but in a small sampling, Heisey now has 16 home runs in just 329 at bats.  This year his slugging is .492, to put that in perspective, his teammate Joey Votto is not that far above him at .519. In 2009, at the high levels of Minor League ball, Heisey blasted 22 home runs with 21 steals and a .314 average.  Looks like fantasy managers should put this outfielder on their radar, although playing time could be an issue unless Jonny Gomes finds the bench with his .222 average.

Jonathan Broxton, RP, Dodgers

If you cut Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton following his most recent blowup in early May before landing on the DL, it may be a good idea to pick him right up.  We have no idea if his struggles are in the past, but we do know that his manager intends on returning him to the closer’s role once he is healthy.  Broxton is on the road to recovery, most recently pitching at Triple-A in a rehab appearance.

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