By Eno Sarris //

The Mariners are surprisingly close to first in their division despite having amassed the second-least runs in the American League. Some of the blame for the scoring woes rests on their second-highest-priced position player, Chone Figgins. With the injury problems at third base across the league, baseball fans both real and fantasy want to know if Figgins can provide value this year.

This early in the season it’s hard to say much about certain aspects of a player’s game. Power, for example, doesn’t become reliable until the season is basically over. Power swings happen to players all the time. But, thanks to a famous article by “Pizza Cutter,” we can know which aspects of a game are reliable at this point. Mr. Cutter ran the numbers and found plate appearance thresholds at which stats could predict future performance from that player at a 70% reliability or better. Here are the stat thresholds that Figgins has passed:

50 PA – swing percentage
100 PA – contact rate, response bias (both just missed at 50… the real number is probably around 70)
150 PA – K rate, line drive rate, pitches/PA
200 PA – BB rate, grounder rate, GB/FB ratio

So basically we can best look at Figgins’ approach at the plate and batted ball mix right now. Looking solely at these numbers, there is reason for some cautious optimism.

At the plate, Figgins is swinging more than ever (43.5% this year, career 40.2%, average is 45.5%) and making more contact than he ever has (90.9% this year, career 86.7%, average is 80.9%). That’s right, in those two categories he’s sporting career highs. Since he’s not swinging more than the average player, it seems like this approach is a good thing. We see that his strikeout rate is also a career best (11.2% this year, 17.1% career), and since it’s backed up by his per-swing numbers and he’s had 192 plate appearances so far, we can believe he’s made strides there. Lower strikeout rates mean more balls in play and more opportunities for hits.

The unfortunate thing is that his walk rate is also at a career-low (5.2% this year, 10% career). Perhaps we can say that he will have more opportunities for hits, but since he’s walking less, his base-stealing opportunities should remain static. For every walk he loses, he gains at least a chance at a hit.

Of course, not every chance at a hit is equal. Line drives are the best batted ball in terms of batting average, then grounders, then fly balls. Since Figgins has very little power (.089 ISO, .150 is average), it would be best for him to hit the ball on the ground. Well, he’s showing his career-best ground ball percentage, and he’s only 8 PAs short of reliability there. It’s paired with the worst line drive rate of his career, though, so once again we have a mixed bag.

Then there’s the matter of Figgins’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is very low at .226. Using Figgins’ mix of batted ball types – which are mostly reliable at this point – we can find an expected BABIP for Figgins – .312. (Check here for a more detailed explanation of the xBABIP calculator.) Given his lack of power, batted ball mix, and xBABIP, we could expect Figgins to hit as well as .260 going forward. He’s still attempting steals, and though his success rate has fallen this year, he’s going to get the green light from his team.

It’s reasonable to expect a middling batting average and a solid amount of steals from Figgins going forward, just like the Bloomberg Sports fantasy projections predicted before the season. At 33, he may be declining, but he’ll still help teams, fantasy and real, with his play this year.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Normally, the catcher position is one of the weaker spots in your fantasy lineup. Outside of the top tier of talent, there is not much to be had behind the plate from a roto perspective. Catchers are not exactly lighting up in 2011; however, the position is out producing several other spots. In fact, catchers have combined for a higher OPS than several positions including the historically more powerful third base. Catchers have also combined to hit 141 home runs this year. That is more than second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, and center fielders.

For a few years, the position has been dominated by names like Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Victor Martinez. This season, more catchers are getting in on the action. Coming in to Monday night’s games, nine catchers with 90 or more plate appearances have an OPS of .800 or above. There are three more over .790. Even more surprising, none of the players on the list are named Mauer, McCann, or Posey.

In place of the common names we’ve see at the top of the catching leaderboard are names like Russell Martin, Alex Avila, Yadier Molina, and Jonathan Lucroy. Each of them owns an OPS greater than .860. But there is one name that has topped them all. With a slash line of .333/.380/.581, Cincinnati Reds’ catcher Ramon Hernandez is leading the way of offensive catchers.

Hernandez has been a productive fantasy player in the past. Since 2001, he has hit 15 or more home runs in five seasons – including two seasons with more than 20 bombs. In 97 games for the Reds last season, he hit .297/.364/.428. Of course when a player like Hernandez gets off to a hot start, the term fluke is tossed around.

The case of Hernandez is a rather interesting one. On one hand, his home run-to-flyball rate of nearly 25% is highly unlike to continue long-term. His .333 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) may seem high for a 35-year-old catcher with no speed. On the other hand, he posted a .332 BABIP in 352 plate appearances as at age 34 last season. Looking at his batted ball data (line drives, groundballs, flyballs) not much has changed except a few less grounders and a few more flyballs.

Despite the hot start, Hernandez is available in a large number of leagues. You may have one of the other productive catchers on your roster, but at his rate, he is becoming worthy of starting in a utility role. If you are able to grab Hernandez and team him a Jonathan Lucroy – a beneficiary of a lot of early season luck – you could double up on the catcher production and then perhaps trade one (in this scenario I would say Lucroy) while his value is high.

–Tommy Rancel

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com

Time to check in an see how some favorite preseason sleepers are faring this season.

Bloomberg Sports was more optimistic on Hunter Pence, Dan Haren, Billy Butler, Jay Bruce, and Pablo Sandoval than most other fantasy baseball prognosticators.

On the positive side, Dan Haren and Jay Bruce have both paid off handsomely. Haren has been the fourth most valuable starter in the majors this year, according to the Front Office tool. He’s only garnered four wins in ten starts so far, but can show a 1.84 ERA and 66 strikeouts, which is second most in the American League at the moment. His better success this season can be attributed to better command — he’s brought down his walk rate  — as well as a better ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Last season, he was allowing 1.19 HRs per 9 IP; this season, in a friendlier pitcher’s park, that’s down to 0.37. He’s getting a tad lucky, but he’s likely going to earn his owners’ draft investment easily.

The same goes for Jay Bruce, who has 10 HRs, 4 SBs, and a respectable-for-a-slugger .265 batting average. Since last August, one can count the number of players with more HRs than Bruce on a single hand. Bruce has also made strides in his batting eye, cutting down on the strikeouts. A better Reds lineup also means he should surpass career high totals in runs and RBIs too.

Unfortunately, both Hunter Pence and Billy Butler seem to have taken a step backwards thus far. Pence is doing adequately on the surface with 5 HRs and a .293 AVG, but he’s whiffing a lot more at the plate these days. His strikeout rate is up from 17% last year to over 23% this one. Pence’s average may be due for some regression and he’s not stealing much either these days.

As for Butler, his batting eye is better than ever. He’s drawing a ton of walks and isn’t striking out significantly. Unfortunately, he only has 3 HRs this season as his HR-to-fly-balls has dipped down to the level we typically see from middle infielders with no power. He’ll be lucky to get to 20 HRs at this rate.

Pablo Sandoval was in the midst of a resurgent comeback season with 5 HRs and a .313 AVG in 91 plate appearances before he injured his hand and was lost for May. He’s due back next month but carries some risk. He’s likely to maintain a good average as his discipline at the plate is near elite; however, the hand injury could sap his power.

Finally, a look at some preseason sleeper favorites by others. Before the season began, we collected names being touted as breakouts and put them into a word cloud. The bigger the name, the more they were hyped…

So far, the wisdom of crowds seems to be a bit off in 2011. Ryan Raburn is hitting close to the Mendoza Line with a putrid 49 strikeouts to just 7 walks. He’s only got four home runs thus far. Dan Hudson‘s peripheral numbers hint at better things to come, but he’s currently sitting on an ERA above 4 and a WHIP above 1.3. Jose Tabata started out strong, then had to deal with a minor injury, and is now struggling to get it going again. J.P Arencibia and Chris Iannetta have both delivered moderate power at the catcher position, but both struggle to put the ball into play and suffer terrible batting averages and low RBI totals as a result. On the more positive side, Jhoulys Chacin and Mitch Moreland have delivered nice value from the late draft rounds.

-Eriq Gardner

For more, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2011

By R.J. Anderson //

The National League West is usually one of baseball’s tightest divisions. This season, it’s producing some interesting seasons from the center field position. Here is a rundown with the order based on the team name:

Diamondbacks – Chris Young

Young has started in center every game except one for Arizona this season and the usual caveats are still in play. Young will provide power (he already has eight home runs in a little under 200 plate appearances) at the expense of batting average (.225) and strikeouts (21.2 percent of his plate appearances). A higher percentage of Young’s hits and plate appearances are ending with extra bases, but his walk-to-strikeout rate is also at its worst since 2007.

Dodgers – Matt Kemp

Kemp has done Young one better by starting every game for the Dodgers. Because Kemp debuted at age 21, it’s easy to forget that he is only 26-years-old. Right now, he is in the midst of a ridiculous season, hitting .321/.404/.528 with 12 stolen bases (he stole 19 last season) and eight home runs. Kemp’s walks are up, his strikeouts are down, and the increase in singles is boosting his average. He is a surefire keeper.

Giants – Andres Torres

After a shocking 2010 season, Torres has missed most of the 2011 campaign due to injury. When he has played, he continues to hit well–.308/.379/.500. The danger in acquiring Torres is buying high via trade. Torres is unlikely to produce at that rate for too long, even if he managed to do so for 170 plate appearances in 2009. If Torres is available on the free agency market, grab him, otherwise stick to laurels when it comes to his value.

Padres – Cameron Maybin

One of the better stories in baseball this season, Maybin is hitting .273/.345/.440 after being acquired in an offseason deal. The Padres bought low and it’s paying off, as some nights he looks to be their best player. In nearly half the plate appearances as last season, Maybin already has roughly as many doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases, and walks. If he is available, grab him. This could be the tip of the iceberg.

Rockies – Dexter Fowler

If your league values on-base percentage, then Fowler is unlikely to be available. His OBP is over .370 thanks to a walk rate near 15 percent. Unfortunately, Fowler’s strikeouts are up too, hence why his batting average is down despite good success on balls in play (a .374 BABIP versus .340 career).

This is one of those divisions and positions where every starting player is worth owning. If one of these five players is available in your league, scoop him up.

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visitBloombergSports.com

May be you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. On the other hand, there are a few old dogs in the Major Leagues that are up to their old tricks. Here are five players 35 years of age or older who are producing at a high level. But how long can they keep it up? And what you should do if they are on your roster?

Lance Berkman

Berkman, 35, appeared on our surprise leaderboard list a few weeks ago. Although he has come back to earth recently, he came into Monday night’s games with a season slash line of .347/.434/.694. In just 36 games, he has 11 home runs and 34 RBI – second most in the league. In 122 games last season, he had just 14 home runs and drove in 58. Looking at his current .333 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) compared to his career .317 mark, Berkman’s hot streak appears to be more legit than fluke. The home runs may cool down a bit, but even if they do, he can rack up doubles. After looking done toward the end of last season, Berkman is a keeper in 2011.

Todd Helton

A fixture in the Rockies’ lineup since 1998, Helton is showing more power than we have seen in recent seasons. The 35-year-old belted his sixth home run on Sunday after hitting just eight in 2010. In fact, you’ll have to back to 2005 to find the last 20 home run season from Helton. His home run-to-flyball rate is a bit above average; however, 20 home runs look like a possibility once again for him. Meanwhile, Helton’s .325 average should not come as a surprise to anyone. He has not been a source for runs (17) or run production (19 RBI), but if you need average and gap power, he excels at both.

David Ortiz

In early 2009, it looked as if Ortiz, 35, was finished as a middle of the order threat in the Red Sox lineup. Fast forward to 2011 and Ortiz has a chance for his seventh 30-plus home run season since moving to Boston in 2003. Big Papi is also hitting for a high average (.295) with a sustainable BABIP (.298) despite the overshifting by opposing defenses. A large portion of that is due to a massive cut down in strikeout rates. As the top of the Red Sox order improves, his RBI chances will increase, only adding to his value.

Derek Lowe

One of the more durable pitchers of the last decade, Lowe has averaged 205 innings and 15 wins over the past nine seasons. This season, Lowe is striking out nearly a batter per inning after increasing the usage of his cut-fastball and slider. His 3.73 ERA appears sustainable and his groundball rate is once again amongst the league leaders. In a division where he is easily overlooked, Lowe, 37, remains one of the most consistent performers in fantasy leagues & real life as well.

Bartolo Colon

One of the more intriguing storylines in 2011, Colon has been a pleasant surprise in the New York Yankees rotation. Colon sat out the 2010 season, but has racked up 41 strikeouts in 43.1 innings with New York while maintaining a 3.74 ERA in the American League East. The results have been favorable for Colon thus far; however, one must question how long he can sustain this level of success. There isn’t much fluke in his numbers, but, his health remains a big question mark and his strikeout seems unstable considering he is getting a lot of called strikes. If you can afford to sell high, Colon is a good candidate.

–Tommy Rancel

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com