Category: Baseball

Why You Should Buy, Not Sell, Jeremy Hellickson

by Eno Sarris //

We can get a little smart for our britches sometimes. We’ll take a pitcher, look at his peripherals and declare him over-rated. Then that pitcher goes and improves his peripherals and retains his ERA and WHIP and we look silly. This explains much of Trevor Cahill‘s last two years. Are we seeing it again this year in Tampa?

Take a look at Jeremy Hellickson‘s underlying statistics and he seems like a perfect sell-high. Despite a sweet ERA (3.17 ERA), he’s not striking out a ton of batters (6.1 K/9), is walking batters at about an average rate (3.25 BB/9, average is 3.14 BB/9), and is getting ground balls at a below-average rate (33.9% GB, 44% is average). To recap: that’s below average, average and below average. He’s managing the ERA mostly on the back of a lucky batting average on balls in play (.224 BABIP) and a lucky strand rate (79% left on base, 70% is league average).

Put it all together and you get a 4.27 FIP, or fielding independent pitching, a number on the ERA scale that strips out batted ball luck. An average FIP this year is 3.84. He’s been below average, which is a strange thing to say about a guy with a low-threes ERA and nine wins.

But here’s something even stranger to say: He could be just as good going forward, and maybe even fundamentally better. Well, that’s not really that strange, but given his rate stats, you might frown for a moment.

The reasoning behind the statement is simple. Like Trevor Cahill before him, Hellickson is a young pitcher. He has fewer than 150 innings pitched at the major league level. We can’t really assume that the strikeout and walk rates that we currently see are his true talent rates. In 2010, Cahill showed a 5.4 K/9 and the book was that he couldn’t sustain his results with that level of strikeouts. But Cahill had also had a 9.9 K/9 in the minor leagues. He just needed to figure it out on the major league level, and lo and behold, he now has a 6.65 K/9 and has bettered his FIP a quarter of a run.

Hellickson? He had a 9.8 K/9 in the minor leagues. He was a control artist, with a 2.1 BB/9 on the farm and no season where he walked more than three per nine. He never got a ton of ground balls, but he did get much closer to 40%. These numbers were accrued against inferior talent, but they are also relevant. We can’t just assume that Hellickson will continue to strike out six per nine and say he’s over-rated. Small sample sizes are the bane of the saber-friendly analyst, but in his last three starts, Hellickson has 18 strikeouts against three walks in 20 1/3 innings. That’s the sort of work he did in the minor leagues.

Particularly when we evaluate young pitchers, we cannot forget their minor league work. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and a young pitcher is an adjustment away from improving his underlying rates and ‘deserving’ his good fortune. Even in baseball’s toughest division, Hell Boy has great stuff, dominant control, and the ability to continue putting up an ERA in the low threes.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

The Next Batch of Rookies: Kipnis, Turner, Goldschmidt, Jennings, and Gibson

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Rookies On the Way:

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians

A second round pick out of Arizona State, this 24-year old is bound for a late call-up by the contending Indians.  A .300 hitter in the Minor Leagues, Kipnis has deployed a nice combination of power and speed at Triple-A this season.  Considering second base is currently being help by Orlando Cabrera, who is batting just .244, it seems like promoting Kipnis would actually be an upgrade at the Major League level.

Jacob Turner, SP, Tigers

Just 20-years old, Turner was the ninth overall pick of the 2009 draft and his ability to throw strikes may be enough to earn a call-up to the Big League level.  The Tigers are not afraid to bring a young hurler to the Majors, after all, they did with the 20-year old Rick Porcello just three years ago.  Turner is able to miss bats more effectively than Porcello, so in other words he has greater potential.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks seem afraid to let their young players contribute.  Heck it took long enough for Brandon Allen to earn the call up to the Majors this season despite blasting 25 home runs last season at Triple-A.  The problem here is that Allen, who hit 18 home runs with a .306 average at Triple-A before recently earning a promotion.  Then there’s Paul Goldschmidt, a former 8th round pick with 80 home runs through three Minor League seasons.  It might make sense to trade one of these two boppers, but with a .424 OBP and a .616 slugging, it looks like Goldschmidt is the one they want to keep.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays

The Rays have come to realize that they called upon Desmond Jennings to contribute a bit too early last season.  They also are doing a great job of alleviating the pressure of replacing Carl Crawford from Jennings this season by keeping him in the Minors for an extended period.  However, do not be confused, Jennings is very much a long-term solution for the Rays.  After a mediocre start to the season, Jennings has come on as of late with 12 home runs, 17 steals, and now a .280 average.  He still fans a bit too often, but Jennings has all five tools and will make his return to the Big Leagues in the coming weeks.

Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins

The 22nd pick of the 2009 draft, Gibson is a 6’6 right-hander with front of the rotation potential.  He hasn’t had the best season so far at Triple-A, as his record is just 3-8 with a 4.68 ERA.  However, the number to pay attention to is the 22 walks in 90.1 innings.  While his stuff is solid, as suggested by his average of a strikeout per inning, what’s more impressive is his ability to control his entire arsenal of pitches.  Improved game-calling by Major League catchers should help Gibson out, but based on his stuff and control, he could be a surprise contributor in the pennant race.

Fantasy Baseball Average Joes

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Daniel Murphy, Utility, Mets

I am not sure what the Mets will do once Ike Davis returns to the lineup be it this year or next.  Daniel Murphy is simply a hired bat who can offer some serious offense.  The problem is on the defensive side, as Murphy is at his best at third base, which happens to be the home for Mr. David Wright. 

 

Murphy has his average up to .315 this season, with line drive power: 6 HR, 21 doubles and 2 triples.  Murphy has hit .385 this month after hitting .330 in June. 

 

Murphy is just 26 years old and bats left-handed, so this is a nice problem to have for the Mets.

 

Alex Gordon, OF, Royals

The second overall pick of the 2005 draft, Gordon has long been considered a bust due to the slow start to his career, but this season he has finally met expectations. 

 

The 27-year old boasts 11 home runs with 24 doubles and 8 swipes.  His average is up to .296 after batting just .215 last season.  His plate discipline has been so impressive that the team opted to have him leadoff before pushing him down in the order to take advantage of his power. 

 

Gordon is now considered a potential trade target for teams in need of offense.

 

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals

You would think Jeff Francoeur is 40 years old since he’s played for three teams over the last year.  Though he has not been able to sustain the hot start to the season (after batting .316 in April, Francoeur hit just .233 and .235 the next two months), he has found a way to contribute to a fantasy roster.  He’s doing this on the basepaths, as he has already swiped 15 bases, nearly double his previous high. 

 

The .266 average still leaves something to be desired, but his 13 home runs and 58 RBI may be enough to force yet another trade.

 

Michael Morse, OF, Nationals

At 29 years old, Morse is a late bloomer, but he is also one of the better hitters in baseball right now with an even .300 average and 15 home runs.  Morse has already matched his previous career-high in home runs, set last season.  His OBP is a healthy .348 and while walks are hard to come by, Morse makes up for it with a .523 slugging percentage. 

 

Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals

This 26-year old left-handed hitter was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft out of Miami.  However, Jay never quite earned top prospect status, and this year he has surprised people as a solid platoon option. 

 

Jay is hurt by a lack of patience at the plate and limited power, but you can’t argue with the .310 average, which comes a season after hitting .300.  In total, Jay boasts a .304 career average with 11 home runs in 516 at bats. 

 

Jay has made a case to get regular at bats, considering he hits both lefties and righties for at least a .300 average throughout his career.  However, with Lance Berkman leading the league in homers, Jay’s playing time will continue to be limited for the remainder of the season. 

 

Five Shocking Player Performances In the 2011 Season So Far

By E. Gardner //

Every season has its surprises. But not all unpredictable events are alike.

Take Matt Kemp. The LA Dodgers outfielder is on pace at the moment for 41 HRs and 46 SBs, totals that surpass the most aggressive, optimistic projections coming into the season. Still, it’s hard to flag Kemp’s superlative production this year as a shocking surprise. Such a season seemed to be within Kemp’s reach given all the right turn of events. Scouts had long viewed Kemp as being a potential 40/40 player. And though Kemp had a disappointing 2010 campaign, the guy who was once touted as the next Manny Ramirez is still only 26 years old.

Let’s take a look at true curveballs.  Here’s five player performances to date we’re pretty confident that nobody saw coming:

  1. Jeff Francoeur’s stolen bases: He’s currently got 15 steals, which ties him with Hanley Ramirez, Juan Pierre, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Gonzalez. Frenchie never had more than 8 steals in a full season before this one. What happened? As we pointed out early this season, the Royals are certainly being more aggressive on the basepaths, which has gone a long way. We also have to imagine that Francoeur is tired of the reputation of being a former top prospect who amounted to a good-for-nothing. Otherwise, there’s not much else to explain Francoeur’s new-found burst of speed. His strikeouts, walks, and on-base rate are all about on par with previous years. He just has the green light now.
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera’s home runs: Cabrera’s currently got 16 HRs, already more than his total from 2008-2010.  Perhaps just as impressively, his slugging ability has remained pretty consistent throughout the season. In April, he hit 5 HRs, more than any other month, but April is the only month this season where Cabrera’s OPS was below .800. His HR/FB rate has jumped from a terrible 3% last season to nearly 15% this year, but even adjusting for some luck, he’s showing legitimate 20 HR ability — which this year, thanks to a strong start, could mean he’ll finish with 25 HRs or more.
  3. Jacoby Ellsbury’s home runs: Similar to Cabrera above, Ellsbury is flashing power like never before. The Red Sox outfielder has long been known for his speed — he’s got 28 steals so far — but he’s shocking those who watch him by knocking balls out of the park regularly. He’s up to 13 HRs now — the same total as his teammate Kevin Youkilis — after never hitting double-digits in HR totals in the five seasons prior to this one in both the minors and majors. Oddly, his fly-ball percentage is actually down from the past two seasons, meaning he’s either gotten way more powerful or way more lucky.
  4. Anibal Sanchez’ strikeouts and walks: Hard to believe but the best player that the Marlins got in the famous Josh Beckett trade of 2005 isn’t Hanley Ramirez this year. Instead, as Hanley struggles, Sanchez is showing signs of being a true ace. He’s currently got 123 strikeouts, which ranks him 13th in the majors and puts him on pace for 214 for the season. His 9.28 K/9 rate is certainly the best of his career, but not a huge leap over the 8.71 K/9 rate shown in the 2008 season. No, what’s really impressive is that he’s upped his strikeouts just as he’s managed to cut his walks. He’s allowing less than 3 walks per 9 innings this year. Put that together with the ability to induce more groundballs than flyballs, and we’re looking at one of the best pitchers in baseball.
  5. Josh Tomlin’s wins: Is it possible we’ll see a 20-game winner from a pitcher who wasn’t even drafted in many deep AL-only leagues? Sure, there’s certainly a good amount of luck that goes into win totals, and Tomlin’s success also corresponds to the surprising success of the Cleveland Indians at large this season . Nevertheless, Tomlin is doing something (besides winning) better than almost everyone else. That something would be showing elite control. His 1.07 BB/9 is second best among all qualifying pitchers in the majors. Only Roy Halladay is walking fewer batters in a typical start. Tomlin barely has a strikeout rate over 5 per 9 IP so he’ll never be a fantasy darling, and maybe hitters will catch on here, but at the moment, Tomlin is doing his best  Mark Buehrle impression.

We’d have a hard time putting too much stock in these new demonstrated skills in terms of sorting out rankings going into the 2012 season. At some point, regression is extremely likely.

But for now, all bets are off.

We’re surprised at what we’re seeing from these five players so far, but if Francoeur steals 25 bags this year, if Cabrera and Ellsbury each manage 25 home runs this year, if Anibal Sanchez finishes the year as a top 10 pitcher, and if Tomlin comes close to 20 wins, it won’t come as truly stunning anymore.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Mr. One Dimensional: Pitchers

Strikeouts: Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals (Owned in 42% of Yahoo Leagues)

Clippard is an All-Star for a good reason with 63 K’s and a 1.75 ERA this season. Though he is cast to the wayside by many fantasy managers because of his lack of saves, Clippard is a solid arm and a fine option to improve your strikeout total, as his 90-plus innings are a large total for a reliever.

Saves: Bobby Parnell, RP, Mets (Owned in 26% of Yahoo Leagues)

We are at a crucial point this season when it comes to reaping saves because  there will be a lot of trades to send closers from the losing teams to the contenders, resulting in new closers in the struggling franchises. On that note, the Mets have dealt Fancisko Rodriguez and the guys to know now are Bobby Parnell, Jason Isringhausen, and Pedro BEato. Parnell is my top pick because of his stellar 30:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio, as well as his 2.92 ERA. Plus, at 26-years old the closer’s role could stick for this flame thrower.

ERA/WHIP: Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Owned in 19% of Yahoo Leagues)

The 8th pick of the 2003 draft, Paul Maholm is thriving this season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season. The problem is that his contributions are limited in the fantasy world thanks to a 6-9 record and just 75 K’s. Nonetheless, there is value in his ERA and WHIP, as the 29-year old has found a groove.

Wins: Rick Porcello, SP, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo Leagues)

A winner of two in a row, Rick Porcello is looking for his third straight season of 10 or more wins. That’s not a bad feat for a 22-year old hurler. Porcello is currently 8-6, despite a 4.78 ERA. Porcello is a control pitcher who does not get many strikeouts, so in fantasy terms; this winner is a one-hit wonder.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Mr. One Dimensional: Hitters

Speed: Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals (Owned in 58% of Yahoo Leagues)

His average is just .233 and he’s got a mediocre 34 runs scored, and that power we saw in the second half of last season is not existent (only 3 home runs on the year). However, Desmond does have 20 steals this season, and with promise of improvement in all other categories, the second year shortstop may have a little something to offer.

Power: J.P. Arencibia, C, Blue Jays (Owned in 45% of Yahoo Leagues)

The Blue Jays rookie backstop is batting just .221, but he’s still fantasy relevant. Why, because he has 12 home runs with 40 RBI. The 2007 first round pick is a bonafide slugger who can reach 25 home runs by the season’s end.

Runs: Michael Brantley, OF, Indians (Owned in 39% of Yahoo Leagues)

One of the key reasons for the Indians success this season has been the play of 24-year old outfielder Michael Brantley. While his power is limited (only 6 homers on the season), and his speed hasn’t been a game-changer (12 steals), the one saving grace for Cleveland’s leadoff man is his ability to reach base and score runs. He has 51 runs on the season, including the two he added last night.

Average: Nate Schierholtz, OF, Giants (Owned in 11% of Yahoo Leagues)

Though he is killed by his home ballpark, Giants outfielder Nate Schierholtz has been a line drive machine this season, which explains why his average has soared to .289. With 7 homers and 5 swipes, Schierholtz can contribute in other categories, but he shines brightest when it comes to Batting Average.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

As the Trade Deadline Looms: Bats on the Bubble

Wilson Betemit, 3B, Royals

An underrated hitter who blasted 13 home runs with a .297 average last year in part-time duty, Betemit is struggling a bit this season, perhaps frustrated by the fact that he is not an everyday player.  At 29 years old, Betemit can provide instant offense to a competitor.  There’s no room in Kansas City for him with rookie Mike Moustakas on the roster.

 Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets

One of the most sought after sluggers on the market, Carlos Beltran is having a heck of a season with 13 home runs and 58 RBI.  He could end up being a difference maker in San Francisco, where they are desperate for offense.  His numbers, however, will spike if he ends up with the Texas Rangers in a very favorable ballpark plus a stacked lineup, very different than what we’ve seen in New York.

 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs

After a sensational June, Ramirez is having an even better July with five home runs and 11 RBI through 10 games.  He does have some leverage, as he can veto some trades, but it would strange for a slugger now 33 years old to reject a trade to a contender.  After all, the Cubs are way out of contention once again. 

 Jose Reyes, SS, Mets

He is the NL MVP who is bound to make his fortune this off-season, but yet again, the one thing that can slow him down has done exactly that: a hamstring injury.  Reyes should return in the coming weeks, and maybe it’s just optimism, but I think the move to shed the salary of K-Rod was done with full intentions of using that money on Reyes.  On the other hand, if the Mets get a sense that Reyes will not re-sign, he will be the biggest name moved by the deadline. 

 JJ Hardy, SS, Orioles

Now on his third team in three seasons, it is possible that JJ Hardy may find a fourth if he cannot come to terms with the Orioles for an extension.  The 28-year-old Arizona native is having a solid season with 13 home runs and a .278 average.  He has also offered the team a lift defensively.  Again, Hardy will only get traded if the O’s don’t lock him up to an extension.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

As the Trade Deadline Looms: Taking a Look at Pitchers

Heath Bell, RP, Padres

One of the elite closers in baseball who made a heck of an entrance in the All-Star game, Bell is competing on a team that is out of contention and looking to shed salary.  If you have Bell on your fantasy team, you may want to trade him, because the odds are he’ll be offering middle relief to a contender by season’s end. 

 Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners

The often injured hurler is dealing with some knee pain right now, but when he’s be on the hill, Bedard has been extremely effective.  You can’t chalk it all up to the Safeco confines either, as his ERA is just 2.16 on the road.  The hard-throwing southpaw is just 32 years old, which may make the Yankees eager enough to take a flyer. 

 Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies

We’ve heard his name on the rumor mill, but I doubt that he will actually be moved.  Jimenez is just 4-8 , but his 4.14 ERA and 1.30 WHIP aren’t all that bad when you consider where he pitches.  The Yankees would probably offer the farm for him, which may get the Rockies listening, but it will be very tough to move the ace of a team that is still in competition. 

 Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles

Despite a 3-12 record, Guthrie has actually pitched well this season with a 4.18 ERA.  Guthrie has played his entire career with the O’s, and his record is 41-60, but at times he has looked like a second or third starter, and will offer a franchise quality innings.  A former first round pick, Guthrie is now 31 years old, so he’s not exactly a long-term investment. 

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com

Francisco Rodriguez Traded to Milwaukee

by Eno Sarris //  

With a $17.5 million option looming over every game Francisco Rodriguez finished this year, the Mets chose to get out from under the money and traded their closer to Milwaukee for some players to be named later. While the move won’t mean much in Milwaukee, it does leave a vacuum in New York that must be filled.

John Axford will continue to close in Milwaukee unless he gets hurt. In many ways he’s been better than Rodriguez this year, and he’s much cheaper. K-Rod’s option vests if he finishes another twenty or so more games this year, and the Brewers can’t spend that money. Axford owners should not panic.

But in New York there’s a closer’s role change in the offing. The primary candidates are set, so let’s suss them out one by one.

Jason Isringhausen was the early favorite to be the next closer. He holds the team lead in holds and used to be the primary setup man. The fountain of youth has treated him to a sub-3.50 ERA after missing most of 2010 recovering from surgery. But look “closer” and the numbers don’t look as nice. His strikeout rate (6.59 K/9) and whiff rate (6.4%) are well below average for a reliever. He’s walking more than four per nine. He has a .213 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and he’s stranded 80% of runners, numbers that usually trend towards .300 and 70% respectively. As those numbers regress, he might have some struggles ahead.

Hometown hero Pedro Beato is tied for third in holds and has perhaps ‘deserved’ his low-threes ERA more than Izzy. At least, his BABIP is .224, but his strand rate is 52.4%. As both numbers regress, he might stay in about the same spot. The ‘problem’ with Beato is that he’s more of a ground-ball pitcher than a strikeout pitcher. He only strikes out 5.4 batters per nine, and even with a nice 2.7 BB/9 and 54.3% ground-ball rate, he doesn’t have the strikeout rate of a closer. Only one of the top 35 relievers sorted by saves has a strikeout rate well below six per nine, and Matt Capps is not a closer to emulate right now.

That leaves Bobby Parnell as the best option for the role. First, the negative. Parnell has had a career of showing great velocity (95 MPH average on his fastball) and poor control (3.82 BB/9 career). While he was only throwing the fastball and not striking people out (7.7 K/9 before this year), this was a problem. Now, the positive. Parnell is throwing his slider more than ever this year, and this has resulted in the best strikeout rate of his career (10.95 K/9). A recent stretch of better control (three walks since June first) has Parnell showing average control (3.28 BB/9). Strike out three batters for every one you walk, and you’re ready to be a closer. Especially if you’ve got a flamethrower of an arm.

Some Mets fans might doubt the fact that Parnell has the mentality to close. He has had some issues in the past. On the other hand, this year’s version looks like the best version, and the numbers say he’s the best option. Good luck hunting for saves.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.

Midseason Warnings and Warm-ups

It’s that time of year again, the All-Star Break. Marking the halfway point in the baseball season, the All-Star Break is a focal point of a player’s statistical performance thus far. Recently we took a look at the Top 3 players that have historically preformed well before the break and struggled after, as well as players that have done the exact opposite (had a slow start and gained momentum after the break). To narrow down the list, we used career batting average pre and post break.

Hot Starts & Slow Finishes

Brennan Boesch, OF – Detroit Tigers

Interestingly enough, Brennan Boesche is the player who replaced Ryan Raburn in the Tigers line-up. Rayburn in his career has frequently struggled in the first half of the season, but is a hot bat in the second. In any case Boesch is off to an amazing start hitting .307 with 12 HR, 57 runs scored and 4 surprising stolen bases. Unfortunate news for Boesch owners, the young talent has the greatest BA disparity from the first to the second half of the season.  Boesch is a career .322 hitter Pre-All-Star break and a .163 hitter Post-All-Star Break (a .159 difference). This 26-year old 2x AL Rookie of the Month Award (May, June 2010) needs to fight past trends and maintain pace to continue his production going into the alter half of the season.

Peter Bourjos, OF – Los Angeles Angles

You can add Angel’s center fielder Peter Bourjos to the sell-high list. If he’s on your team you are probably happy with his production so far this season. He’s batting .272 with 33 runs scored, 17 RBI and 11 stolen bases, however history suggests numbers won’t stay, and Bourjos does not have the stamina to keep up this solid level of play. In his career Borjos is a .268 first half hitter, sliding 64 points down to a .204 hitter in the second half of the season.

Ryan Hanigan, C – Cincinnati Reds

Hanigan might not be the most popular fantasy player and is likely a free agent in your league. In the beginning half of the season he is hitting a modest .255 with 19 RBI and 3 HR. Despite decent numbers so far, like many catchers before him, Hanigan breaks down in the second. Over his career he is a .301 hitter going into the break, but slumps down to a low .239 after. So, if you come across Hanigan on the waiver wire it might be a smart move to pass on him.

 

Building Momentum

Chris Coghlan, OF – Florida Marlins

Chris Coghlan is the former NL Rookie of the Year, but he barely seems like the same player hitting just .230, with only 7 stolen bases to his name, but Coghlan is no stranger to cold first halves, or hot second halves. In his career the 26 year old has had a .250 BA before the All-Star Break compared to a whopping .364 after. In 2009, he had 41 hits in August, followed with 50 hits in September/October, making him the first rookie with back to back 40+ hit months since Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. Looking at his fantasy value, it is very likely that Coghlan will be available in most leagues. If history repeats itself he may be a guy who comes in and hits over .300 with 15 HRs and handfuls of stolen bases. Staying healthy has been a problem in the past, but if he can stay on the field Coghlan is worth a pickup.

Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF – Detroit Tigers

The Tigers utility man is a notoriously slow starter, with a career BA of .225 before the All-Star break and a .291 BA when he returns. After a great second half last year, it was exciting to see how he would start the season, but Raburn has largely been a disappointment. He is only batting .205 with 7 HRs in the first of half the season, but don’t sleep on Rayburn as he looks to repeat last season’s second half run.

Jason Heyward, OF – Atlanta Braves

21-year old Jason Heyward is another player who has been disappointing so far, after almost getting the nod as Rookie of the Year last year. Heyward is just hitting .223 now with 8 HR. He is currently being shown up by his former roommate, and teammate, Freddie Freeman. Historically he is just a .225 hitter in the beginning of the season, but a strong .291 in the second half. If Heyward could repeat this pattern and return to last year’s form he has huge potential for fantasy manager in the latter half of the season.