Selling Kevin Correia’s Wins

By Tommy Rancel //

A quick check of the pitching leaderboards and you’ll find quite a surprise at the top of the wins column. With eight victories in 12 starts, Kevin Correia is two-third of the way to his career-high in victories (12); and it’s early June.

Signed in the offseason by the Pirates to a modest one-year deal, Correia was named Pittsburgh’s opening day starter. Since then he has rattled off a league leading eight wins with 3.40 ERA in 76.2 innings. While Correia has been a pleasant surprise to fantasy owners who picked him up early on, he is a definite sell high candidate.

Correia has been a nice source of wins, ERA, and WHIP; however, he offers little in the way of strikeouts (career low 3.99 K/9) and has some areas where regression may set in. His .265 batting average on balls in play is low, but not flukishly low. In terms of home runs allowed, his 0.82 HR/9 is below is career 1.03 rate while his home run-to-flyball rate of 7.4% should be closer to 10%.

If and when he regresses, it will not be as steep as some might think. Meanwhile, it will certainly lower his value which is at an all-time high. Correia should easily end up with double-digit victories; however, his ERA is likely to spike from the 3.40 level. It shouldn’t go as high as his career mark of 4.46, but somewhere in the low 4.00 range is likely. He has also been the beneficiary of offensive run support with nearly 22% of the Pirates total runs coming with Correia on the mound.

A good team manager is one that is able to identify sell-high opportunities in on area in order to strengthen another area of weakness. Moving Correia at his current value allows for that to happen. In every league, there is someone who is starving for pitching and may be willing to overpay.

If you can get back a productive position player at weak position (shortstop, catcher) for Correia’s early season hot streak, do it now. Looking around the waiver wire, you should be able to replace Correia rather easily with a lesser known player like Josh Collementer in NL-Only leagues or Matt Harrison in mixed formats.

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