Tagged: Los Angeles Dodgers

Don’t Give Up On Jonathan Broxton

By Tommy Rancel //

Even before his days as the closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Jonathan Broxton was among the few relief aces in baseball. In 364.1 career innings of work, Broxton has a strikeout per nine innings rate (K/9) of 11.86, a walk per nine innings rate (BB/9) of 3.56, and a home run per nine innings rate (HR/9) of 0.52. Looking back in major league history, only Broxton and Billy Wagner have pitched more than 340 relief innings with a K/9 more than 11.5, a BB/9 less than 4.0, and a HR/9 less than 1.0.

In 2010, Broxton is doing more of the same. His K/9 is once again hovering around 11.0 (11.41). His BB/9 (3.42) and HR/9 (0.38) are actually less than his career levels. His 2.37 FIP (fielding independent pitching) is the fifth best among National League closers.

Everything is good, right? Wrong.

Just last week, Broxton was removed from his role as the Dodgers’ closer. His overall numbers look stellar, but in recent weeks things have not gone well for the 26-year-old. Since July 1, he has allowed 12 runs on 14 hits – including the only two home runs he has yielded all season. He gave up just eight runs in the first three months of the season. Add in Hong-Chih Kuo‘s impressive numbers (1.95 FIP), and you can’t really fault Joe Torre for making a move. That said, it is not time to jump ship on Broxton.


Currently, Broxton owns a 3.42 ERA. That is a full run more than his FIP. That’s largely due to all the additional baserunners getting on with hits. In 46.1 innings this year, he has allowed 44 hits. He allowed 44 hits all of last year in 76 innings. The good news is that of the 44 hits given up in 2010, 34 of them have been singles.

A groundball pitcher (46.1% career groundball rate), Broxton’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .364 is absurdly high. His career BABIP is .325, while the league average is around .300. Even with a career number that is regularly above the league norm, a .364 BABIP is just ridiculous for a guy with Broxton’s stuff.


Speaking of stuff, it seems Broxton’s dominating combo of mid-90s fastball and high-80s slider has been less effective of late. Before July 1, his fastball registered a strike 67.4% of the time; the slider 78.1%. Since then, his strike percentage on the heater is down to 60.5%, and the slider to 67.3%.

If the Dodgers are continuing to use Broxton, they must feel he is healthy. His velocity readings have also remained steady through his struggles. With that said, Broxton’s troubles seem like an easy fix from the outside looking in. Whether it be something mechanical or mental, or maybe just a bounceback in luck, the big righty should rebound at some point. Keep him rostered as a high-strikeout setup man, and hope he wins his closer job back soon.

For more on Jonathan Broxton and his historic rates, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits

Ted Lilly in Los Angeles

By Eriq Gardner //


In his 12-season career, Ted Lilly has played for six teams, but no home environment marks a better fit for the veteran pitcher than Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
Traded there last week, Lilly brings with him nice surface stats, including an ERA of 3.56 and a 1.09 WHIP. However, as noted here in June, Lilly has been getting rather lucky this season, as his strikeout rate has fallen to a career low (6.82 K/9 IP).
Whiffing fewer batters means putting more balls in play. For Lilly, that’s potentially disastrous. Nearly 52% of balls hit off Lilly are flyballs. Typically, that translates to a lot of home runs allowed. In Lilly’s case, he’s giving up 1.45 HRs per nine innings — a poisonous rate for an ordinary pitcher.
However, when Lilly has given up a home run this season, he’s been fortunate enough to survive without too much harm to his ERA. Of the 20 HRs that Lilly has given up this season, 11 have come with the bases empty and seven of come with only one man on base. Thanks to being both good (2.1 BB/9 IP) and lucky (.252 BABIP), Lilly’s opponents haven’t been clogging the bases at a frequent enough rate to hang him when he gives up the long ball.
Playing for Chicago, Lilly was a primary candidate for significant regression, as his FIP and xFIP (measures which run along the same scale as ERA, but strip out luck, park factors and other variables) are nearly a full run higher than his ERA.
A move to Los Angeles offers some amnesty from the expected regression. Wrigley Field boosts HRs by right-handed batters by five percent whereas Dodger Stadium depresses HRs by right-handed batters by eight percent. About 85% of home runs off Lilly have come from right-handed batters in his career. Moreover, Dodger Stadium boosts strikeouts by about seven percent. 


In sum, Lilly’s flyball tendencies and dwindling ability to overpower batters with strikeouts won’t cause nearly as much trouble in friendly Los Angeles. And he could also get help in another important way.
Remarkably, despite a wonderful ERA this season, Lilly had only three wins in 2010 playing for the Chicago Cubs. His former club offered the fourth-worst run support in the National League. According to statistics kept by Baseball Prospectus, Lilly would have gotten 10 wins playing with an average offense.
On Tuesday, Lilly picked up his fourth win of the season, perhaps some cause for optimism for Lilly’s fantasy owners who have been been both lucky and unlucky with Lilly this season.
For more on starting pitchers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office

Casey Blake: Boring but Effective Fantasy Option

By R.J. Anderson

Casey Blake will enter this season as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting third baseman for the second consecutive season. Blake, 36, qualifies as a solid if unspectacular player. Last season he hit .280, popped 18 homers, drove in 79 runs a season, scored 84 runs and stole all of three bases. He’s an above-average hitter, no doubt, but is he worth a roster spot in a 12-team mixed league?

Such a question would be so much easier if the Dodgers used Blake like the Cleveland Indians did for years. Last season, Blake appeared in 134 games at third and two at first and left. The year before he appeared in enough games to become eligible at third base and first base, and in the past he’s been eligible at three positions at once. But if a Manny Ramirez suspension wasn’t enough to get Blake out in the pasture, then the addition of Jamey Carroll and Garret Anderson almost certainly won’t lure Blake to another position.

That means Blake’s numbers matter only relative to other third basemen in the league. Bloomberg ranks him as the 13th-best third baseman, and one going well below his B-Rank slot of 152. Instead, Blake is being drafted, on average, at 282nd. That’s a gap of more than 100 slots, indicating that Blake is being undervalued. He’s projected to nearly match last year’s numbers, with 19 homers, a .276 average, and 79 RBI.

That makes Blake a more attractive option than other hot corner bearers like Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Alex Gordon (destined to start the season on the disabled list), Scott Rolen, and Miguel Tejada.

Is Blake worth a roster spot? He’s not a sexy option, but yes, he’s worth drafting in 12-team mixed leagues. Target him in the late rounds, and take advantage of the huge gap between his likely value and his perceived value.

For more
information on other good third base options, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kit