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Tigers Hurler Doug Fister Picking Up From 2011
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
If you’re lucky your rival fantasy managers may have forgotten about Doug Fister and what he offered last season. The Tigers right-hander returned this week from the disabled list and was offered a dream fantasy week.
Fister took on the hapless Mariners offense and the A’s offense both in big-time pitcher’s parks. Though the Tigers did not offer the run support that we expected, Fister was sensational even if his record is just 0-1.
In his return to the mound, Fister stymied the Mariners for seven innings, allowing just four hits and no walks through seven innings. The Tigers eventually lost that contest 3-2. Next, Fister went six innings against the A’s, allowing nothing more than a first inning run. The right-hander fanned eight batters, but again lacked the run support for a win.
Through 16.2 innings, Fister now boasts a 0.54 ERA and 14:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has dominated in his 14 appearances since joining the Tigers. Fister’s value should only improve throughout the season as the offense should eventually awake and offer the run support that allowed the 6’8” right-hander to go 8-1 down the stretch a season ago.
For more fantasy baseball insight enjoy Front Office 2012 at BloombergSports.com
Were they April Fools, Or Legitimate Stars?
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
Here’s a look at the best fantasy players of April and whether they are sustaining their production or regressing to a less impressive level of play.
Best April Catcher: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
April Stats: 14 runs, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, .316 AVG
Update: Since the change of month, Yadier Molina has only one RBI. Molina hurt his left hand in a game on May 8 and hopes to return to the diamond.
Conclusion: One of the most well-rounded catchers in baseball, Molina will remain one of the game’s best at his position, though Orioles masked marvel Matt Wieters may overtake him.
Best April First Baseman: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
April Stats: 15 runs, 7 HR, 20 RBI, .298 AVG
Update: Four hits and 3 RBI against the A’s on Thursday got Cabrera back in rhythm. His statistics have gone down a bit, but he remains amongst the best in baseball.
Conclusion: Cabrera is 100% legitimate and the best corner infielder in baseball right now.
Best April Second Baseman: Ian Kinsler, Rangers
April Stats: 24 runs, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG
Update: Though riding a six-game hit streak, Kinsler’s batting average has declined and he does not have an extra base hit during that stretch.
Conclusion: What makes Kinsler so valuable is the combination of power and speed. If he can keep the batting average closer to .300, he’ll be in the MVP conversation.
Best April 3rd Baseman: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
April Stats: 15 runs, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG
Update: One of the biggest surprises in April, Encarnacion remains a valuable power bat in May, though the batting average has returned to normalcy.
Conclusion: Encarnacion should finally swat 30-home runs, but it may come with a disappointing average.
Best April Shortstop: Mike Aviles, Red Sox- 18 Runs, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG
April Stats: 18 Runs, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .291 AVG
Update: Aviles has not been immune to the Red Sox struggles. His power numbers have come back to earth and his average has been in free fall this May.
Conclusion: Aviles is a fine middle infielder, but he is not the best. He over-performed in April.
Best April Outfielder: Matt Kemp, Dodgers
April Stats: 24 runs, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, .417 AVG
Update: Kemp has slowed down a bit and has yet to go deep this month. He remains one of the best hitters in baseball and likely MVP contender, but he is no longer running away with the honor.
Conclusion: He was bound to slow down as pitchers were bound to adapt. Josh Hamilton is now challenging him for supremacy in the Big Leagues.
Best April Starting pitcher: Jake Peavy, White Sox
April Stats: 3 Wins, 33 K, 1.67 ERA, 0.69 WHIP
Update: With two quality starts already this month, Peavy continues to dominate the fantasy scene. He has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last five starts and has only quality starts this season. He is 1-0 in May so far.
Conclusion: It’s been several years since we’ve seen this type of dominance from Peavy. Let’s hope he can avoid the injury-bug for the first time since he’s left San Diego.
Best April Reliever: Fernando Rodney, Rays
April Stats: 1 Win, 7 SV, 9 K, 0.87 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
Update: Rodney has added a win and two saves to his record this month without surrendering a single run.
Conclusion: This is looking pretty real and it all has to do with control. Rodney boasts a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s the latest reliever to enjoy a renaissance after joining the Rays bullpen.
Pirates Have Their Ace in Right-hander James McDonald
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
If the Pirates are finally going to creep above mediocrity this season it will require James McDonald to evolve into a staff ace. The Pirates hurler who touches the low 90s went 9-9 last season with a 4.21 ERA. He would have been much better if he was able to do better than a walk every other inning.
This season McDonald has been better. The opposition has had a hard time hitting him, to the tune of a .213 average. Plus, his walks are way down this season resulting in a 1.09 WHIP and a 2.70 ERA. He is riding a hot streak, allowing just one hit in seven innings in a tough no decision against the Rockies, then picking up a win with 10 K’s in Atlanta, followed by another win with one crossing the dish against him by a solid Reds offense.
McDonald’s success is entirely dependent on his control. He has the stuff to keep batters off edge at the plate, but he has to keep them off the bases via free passes. With the Pirates looking to develop young talent with the hope of contending in the short-term, McDonald will have to lead a staff that is comprised of retreads such as Erik Bedard and AJ Burnett.
When Will Tigers Hurler Duane Below Get a Chance?
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
A little over a week ago, the Tigers announced that Duane Below would earn his first crack at starting this season. The southpaw had certainly earned the opportunity in his second season with the Tigers. Below had yet to issue a walk and the opposition was hitting just .167 against him in 12 scoreless innings. Alas, the opportunity never came as rain pushed the game back and Tigers manager Jim Leyland was not about to alter his rotation just to get Below a spot start.
Since then Below has continued throwing darts. He has added an additional two innings of work to his season total and the opposition has offered just a hit and walk against him without cracking the scoreboard in his last three appearances. Through 14 innings, Below now boasts a 0.00 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and .174 average against. Simply put, he has been one of the best hurlers in baseball this season.
The big question is whether the Tigers have lucked out with this year’s version of Doug Fister? To answer that we look at Below’s stats in the minor leagues. Though he was a tad too hittable early in his professional career, the numbers have drastically improved in recent years. In fact, in 2011, Below was 9-4 in 18 starts with a 3.13 ERA in Triple-A. He does not get many strikeouts, but he has great command of the strike zone.
Despite some big prospects in the Tigers system, Below has earned the next spot start needed in Detroit. It’s about time for his fantasy managers to hope for an opportunity in Detroit.
Mets Starting Pitcher RA Dickey Is More Than Just a Good Story
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
Mets starting pitcher RA Dickey is more than just a great a story. He is a solid hurler who earned his billing as the number two pitcher in the Mets rotation. April is traditionally not a good month for the knuckleball, and yet Dickey has five brilliant performances and one disastrous outing. On that note, he is 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Though he remains susceptible to the home run (seven in six starts), Dickey is also something of a strikeout artist this season with 32 K’s in 38.1 innings of work.
Considering the knuckleball is an all-or-nothing pitch, ERA and WHIP may not be the best indicators for his performance. After all, when a knuckleballer doesn’t have his pitch, he is left with a very hittable fastball. That explains why after six starts, half of Dickey’s earned runs came in one ugly implosion.
A statistic that is better in tune with Dickey’s performance is quality start percentage. It requires six or more innings while allowing three or fewer runs to score. In his breakout 2010 season, Dickey offered a quality start in 18 of his 26 starts (69%). Last season he finished on a tear and offered a solid 68% quality start percentage. Finally, this season Dickey has taken it to a whole new level at 83%.
Dickey’s next two starts won’t be slam dunks. He faces the Marlins in Miami, then heads north for the Blue Jays in Toronto. What’s interesting is that both games could be played indoors. This could have an impact for a knuckleballer who relies on the wind to keep the ball moving. Regardless, Dickey has proven to be an every week start in fantasy baseball leagues, and now that he is also getting strikeouts there are very few holes in his game.
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Mike Minor Making A Home On the Fantasy Waiver Wire
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
After a rough opening start against the Mets, Mike Minor responded with three consecutive quality starts. Minor was suddenly a fantasy star on the rise, which was much-needed for a Braves team that had already demoted hurler Jair Jurrjens to the minor leagues.
Through four starts, Minor boasted respectable numbers including a 2-1 record with a respectable 3.42 ERA. Most impressive was the 0.99 WHIP as a result of his fine control and .233 opposing batting average. Minor had not walked a batter in the previous two games and allowed just one home run all season. Then he hit a rocky road.
The Pirates were supposed to be an easy win for Minor. Instead, the contest marked his second loss of the season, as after hurling two shutout innings he surrendered two runs in three of the next four innings and then another run in the seventh before he was removed. The good news for fantasy managers were the nine strikeouts, but he also walked three batters and allowed two home runs.
Minor’s next start might as well have been at death row. He visited the Rockies in Coors Field and while the good news was that the Braves eventually won, the bad news including 10 hits, four walks, and eight earned runs in just five innings of work. His ERA has skyrocketed to 5.97 and the once impressive WHIP has lost its luster at 1.35.
Things may get worse before they get better as Minor next takes on a very good Cardinals offense. This is a pitcher that may have a bright future, but for now should make his home on the waiver wire.
For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com for access to Front Office 2012.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Jason Bay, Francisco Cordero, and Henry Rodriguez
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
Watch Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw breakdown the top players to buy low and sell high on the fantasy baseball stock report.
Selling Jason Bay:
With the Mets in rebuilding mode, they really needed a hot start from Jason Bay to take the pressure off the veteran and highly paid left-fielder. Though he did sock three home runs through the first 15 games, Bay still lacked consistency as his average was .240 and he is fanning more than once per game. Alas, another tough break for Bay will take him off the field. A fractured left rib suffered on a diving play in left field lands him on the DL. Zach Lutz, a nice power prospect was called up, but I see Kirk Nieuwenhuis likely taking over in left-field once Andres Torres returns and Lucas Duda stays in right field. Bay may return to a platoon situation.
Selling Josh Collmenter:
From hero to goat! Josh Collmenter was being celebrated last season, as he managed 10 wins with a 3.38 ERA and an even more impressive 1.07 WHIP thanks to his incredible control combined with a .237 opposing batting average. This year he has been slammed by the opposition, surrendering six home runs in four starts. On top of that, Collmenter is likely standing in the way of Diamondbacks phenom Trevor Bauer. The DBacks made the tough call of pulling Collmenter from the starting rotation.
Buying Francisco Cordero:
Talk about a heck of an insurance policy, the Blue Jays happened to buy exactly that when they signed Francisco Cordero as a back up to Sergio Santos as the team’s closer. Cordero got off to a rough start this season, but now that he is the final line for the Blue Jays he is back in a comfortable spot. He nailed his first two save opporutnities, but has struggled since, allowing runs in four of his last five outings. At 37 years old, Cordero is getting up there in years and the strikeouts have declined, but he still gets the job done with 34 or more saves in each of the last five seasons. He’ll hold down the fort until Santos return in at best a month.
Buying Henry Rodriguez:
The Nationals have been known for their bullpen for a few years now, but when Drew Storen went down with an injury, it was thought that the newly acquired Brad Lidge would fill the role in the interim. It turns out that Nats have a better option in the 25-year-old Henry Rodriguez who has surrendered a earned runs in just one appearance all season while nailing down five saves. A certain flame-thrower, Rodriguez does have his control issues, but he also has allowed just five hits so far this season. We’ll see if he can continue to overcome his control issues, as he is 5-6 in saves.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Report: Jurrjens, Ross, Roberts, and Schierholtz
BY ROB SHAW
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
Watch Bloomberg Sports Anchors Julie Alexandria and Rob Shaw breakdown the top players to buy low and sell high on the fantasy baseball stock report.
Selling Jair Jurrjens:
The Braves hurler is now in the minor leagues after an atrocious start. Jurrjens has been one of the more underappreciated hurlers of the last few years. He won at least 13 games in three of the last four seasons, twice with an ERA sub-3. However, this season, he lost some of his stuff as he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of four starts and not only is he walking way too many batters, but the opposition is hitting .411 off him. With his fastball in the decline, perhaps a confidence boost in the minor leagues will do the 26-year-old some good. Feel free to release him from your fantasy team.
Buying Cody Ross:
Fantasy managers may have forgotten that Cody Ross once carried a power bat in Florida, surpassing 20 home runs in back-to-back seasons. Sure, he has some World Series heroics a couple of years ago, but playing for the Giants kept him in a pitcher’s park that ate away at his power stats. That changes this season as Ross is now playing at Fenway and already has five home runs, three of which have come at home. A streaky hitter, Ross has had home runs in consecutive games twice already this season. With Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury out, Ross should enjoy regular playing time. This is a player to target for his power.
Selling Ryan Roberts:
The good news for super utility man Ryan Roberts was the 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases last season. The bad news for Roberts was the .239 average over the second half of the season. Unfortunately, Roberts resembles the second half player from last season as his average is sub-Mendoza line with just 10 hits in 66 at bats. At 31 years old, it’s fair to say that what we saw last season was too good to be true. Roberts is now losing out on playing time to Cody Ransom.
Buying Nate Schierholtz:
A 1-17 struggle has brought the average down to .283, but Nate Schierholtz remains an intriguing fantasy option and should continue to get regular playing time in the outfield for the Giants. The addition of Buster Posey has a huge impact in the lineup, and Schierholtz has proven capable of hitting with power and surprising speed over the last few years. If this is finally the first time that the veteran will get 400 at bats, Schierholtz can surprise with some fantasy value.
Infielders to Target: Mike Aviles, Bryan LaHair
BY ROB SHAW
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
The Red Sox willingness to trade away both Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie was certainly bold, but really the bigger story was the franchise’s confidence in former Royals middle infielder Mike Aviles.
A career .288 hitter, Aviles has been a fine contributor in the Majors when healthy. The New York native making himself at home in Boston doesn’t have much power, but in a solid lineup he can pile up many runs. He is also a sneaky stolen base threat. Think of Aviles in the same mold as Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick, except for a much lower cost and with shortstop eligibility.
Aviles and the Red Sox played at the hitter-friendly US Cellular in Chicago this weekend. Though he finished hitless in his final seven at bats, the 31-year-old veteran makes for a great start in the next series against Oakland. The series will be played in Fenway Park where he already boasts two home runs and a .333 average this season.
The Cubs slugger Bryan LaHair reminds me a bit of Michael Morse, a late bloomer with plenty of power who finally broke out last season with the Nationals. LaHair, is a 29-year-old slugger who entered the season with just five home runs to his credit. He spent the last six seasons at Triple-A and last season blasted 38 round-trippers with a .331 average.
So far LaHair is batting .382 with the majority of those hits good for extra bases. While those numbers will regress quite a bit, that does not mean that he can’t still end up as one of the greatest surprises of the season. LaHair can blast 25 home runs with 90 RBI.
In many ways, he is an upgrade over Carlos Pena for the Cubbies at first base. He may not be the defensive gem that Pena is, but with an average .150 better than what Pena has offered the last few seasons, the Chicago fan base is not complaining. Neither should fantasy managers.
For more fantasy insight visit BloombergSports.com for access to Front Office 2012!
The Sustainability of the Orioles Big Three: Arrieta, Hunter, and Hammel
BY ROB SHAW
Twitter: @RobShawSports and @BloombergSports
The biggest surprise in baseball could very well be the Baltimore Orioles and what is most shocking is that the success is not a result of the offense as much as it is the pitching. Let’s take a look at the three over-performing hurlers to determine whether or not the team’s success is sustainable.
Jake Arrieta is seemingly an innings eater who is in the prime of his career. He does not have much control, he is not a strikeout artist, and he surrenders too many home runs. His season got off to a great start with a 7-inning two-hit gem against a weak Minnesota offense. Since then, he has been quite ordinary. That’s what fantasy managers should expect going forward, as Arrieta epitomizes the average pitcher.
Tommy Hunter is a far more interesting pitcher. The Orioles hurler had some success in 2010 with the Rangers, picking up a 13-4 record with a 3.73 ERA. Hunter is not a strikeout artist, nor does he try to be one. The big right-hander makes a living keeping his defense busy. So far, Hunter has been a bit uneven with two gems that resulted in a combined one earned run. In the other two starts he surrendered a combined six home runs. Fantasy managers will and should pass on his services since he does not rack up the K’s, but he’s been a winner so far in his career and should be a solid middle of the rotation hurler for the O’s.
Jason Hammel is looking like a star in Baltimore. Now that he escaped Colorado, the air is a little bit thicker and the ball is finding gloves in the field. Additionally, the K’s are coming twice as frequently as last season. Part of the reason for the sudden success is the addition of a new pitch to the arsenal. Hammel now throws a sinker and he is getting a lot of ground balls with the new pitch. The question is whether this type of success is sustainable or if a new scouting report will allow the hitters to make adjustments. Considering he is already 29 years old and has been in the leagues for several years, it is unlikely a radical change will unfold this late in his career.
The Orioles do have some stars in the lineup as Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters should all be in their prime. The starting rotation is another matter and the problem here is that the team is loaded with overachieving middle of the rotation hurlers. It is very unlikely that they will be able to sustain this success.
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