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Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis: Pitchers
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Koji Uehara to the Rangers
Statistically he is one of the best pitchers in baseball with a stellar 1.69 ERA and even better 0.69 WHIP. In other words it’s rare that someone reaches base and even rarer that someone scores against Uehara. The bad news for his fantasy managers is that he will remain in the setup role while playing in a much more hitter-friendly stadium. Not a major impact, but not one for the better either.
Mike Adams to the Rangers
A lot of fantasy managers picked Adams up in a speculative move with hopes that he would close should Heath Bell get traded. As it turns out, it’s Adams who got traded while Bell stays in San Diego. Adams has been dominant this season with a 1.12 ERA, but again this is a pitcher moving from one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks to a dangerous ballpark. I would drop him since he will remain in middle relief.
Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians
This is a monster move by the Rockies and they scooped up a lot of young talents. What it comes down to is two things. First of all, Is Ubaldo more like the pitcher from last year when he almost won the Cy Young, or this season when his record is 6-9. The second part is whether Ubaldo will thrive now that he is out of Coors. At 27 years old, the Indians believe the gamble was worth taking since they are in need of an ace. I like the chances of this one working out for them as Jimenez boasts a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the road this season.
Erik Bedard to the Red Sox
The Red Sox were not able to come to terms for Rich Harden, so they settled for the next best injury-prone Canadian. Bedard, like Harden, has all of the talent in the world. However, the big question is whether he will be healthy enough for a playoff run. Just 31 years old, Bedard has pitched better on the road this season to the tune of a 2.16 ERA. On the other hand, for his career Bedard boasts a 6.99 ERA at Fenway.
Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis: The Hitters
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Ryan Ludwick to the Pirates
I love this trade for the Pirates. He may be batting just .238 with a .301 on base percentage, but Ludwick is also responsible for 11 home runs and 64 RBI. Plus, on the road Ludwick has 39 RBI in 49 games. That puts him on pace for 130 RBI should he play 162 road games. That is key since Pittsburgh is closer to neutral than the pitcher’s friendly Petco Park.
Derrek Lee to the Pirates
The .246 average may not impress anyone, but Lee is batting .298 with 13 RBI since the All-Star break. A long-time National Leaguer, Lee boasts a .297 career average at PNC Park. He is a solid replacement over the struggling Lyle Overbay at first base.
Michael Bourn to the Braves
The Houston native was thrilled to be an Astro, but at least he will now get a chance to play for a contender. Bourn is best known for his defense in centerfield and his speed on the basepaths. He is a bit of a free-swinger for a leadoff man, but thanks to a .303 average, Bourn is getting on base often this season. He should now rack up more runs with some big bats behind him in the Braves lineup.
Hunter Pence to the Phillies
While Carlos Beltran may be the better player now, Hunter Pence likely has the better future. It should be fun to see how he develops now that he enters a favorable ballpark in a solid lineup. A model of consistency, Pence has blasted 25 home runs in three straight seasons and hit .282 the last two. His value soars now that he will add greater run production due to the likes of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the Phillies lineup.
Rafael Furcal to the Cardinals
The lone home run and .197 average says he’s done, but Busch Stadium has been known to have the Ponce De Leon fountain of youth (just check out Lance Berkman). In the Cardinals lineup, Furcal is bound to improve. Plus, the trade breathes new life into the 33-year-old shortstop who now gets a crack at meaningful baseball.
Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Report: Beltran, Duda, Jackson, Rasmus, and Rzepczynski
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Carlos Beltran, OF, Giants
The numbers don’t do Carlos Beltran justice this season. Sure, he only has 15 home runs, but he also has 30 doubles. That tells me in a more favorable ballpark he’d have closer to 20 home runs. He may only have 3 steals, but he has scored 61 runs, that tells me he is not lagging on the basepaths. His on base percentage is .391, which is 30 points better than his career mark. His average, slugging, and OPS are all better than his season average as well. Now he is moving to San Francisco, which should have a minor impact on his production. The ballpark remains tough, but worse than that, he does not have Jose Reyes hitting in front of him. This might not be a bad time for fantasy managers to sell high on the veteran All-Star.
Lucas Duda, OF, Mets
In his first game as the Mets regular right-fielder, Lucas Duda sent one over the fence. There should be many more coming. The 6’4, 254 lbs. California native is a slugger. He may only boast two home runs this season, but he has 10 doubles and three triples despite just 123 at bats so far this season. His average is at a healthy .276 and the OBP of .350 is stellar. Duda will have every chance of earning the Mets starting right-field job next season, though honestly, what they should consider is moving him to left and Jason Bay off the roster.
Colby Rasmus, OF, Blue Jays
A former first round pick who simply did not get along with Tony LaRussa, Rasmus is a five-tool talent who still has plenty of room for improvement. After blasting 23 home runs last season with 12 stolen bases, Rasmus has just 11 dingers this season. On that note, his numbers should progress quite well once he leaves St. Louis. He’ll have Jose Bautista instead of Albert Pujols providing protection, and also the Rogers Centre is a very favorable hitting environment. Rasmus is a popular buy-low option.
Edwin Jackson, SP, Cardinals
A winner of three of the last four starts, Edwin Jackson is having a fine season despite the 7-7 record, his ERA is 3.92 and he has surrendered just eight home runs in 121.2 innings of work. The big concern with him is the high WHIP. This season it’s because he’s getting hit a bit too often to the tune of a .283 average. The good news for him is that he will now be under the tutelage of Dave Duncan. One of the best pitching coaches in the game, this can have a great impact on Jackson’s career.
Marc Rzepczynski, RP, Cardinals
Another winner in the big deal between the Blue Jays, White Sox, and Cardinals is Rzepczynski. Just 26 years old, this southpaw boasts a 2.97 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season. I would also love to see how he handles starting. He was very promising a few years back and he can really miss some bats. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rzepczynski in the Cardinals starting rotation next season. He has star potential.
Fantasy Baseball 2nd Chance Stars: Alvarez, Karstens, Fowler, McDonald, and Salty
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Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
The fantasty season is not over for one of the biggest busts in the league Pedro Alvarez. The second overall pick of the 2008 draft, we expected big things out of the Vanderbilt alumnus, but instead, his average sits at just .211 with two home runs and 10 RBI. After an extended stay on the disabled list and then a month’s worth of at bats in the Minor Leagues, Alvarez is back. He will bat in the middle of the Pirates lineup and will have ever chance to succeed once again. The third base position is pretty shallow this season with talent, making fantasy managers quick to forgive players like Alvarez.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Red Sox
The man traded for Mark Teixeira a few years back is finally an everyday player in the Big Leagues. Just 26 years old, Salty is having his best season to date. His eight home runs are just one shy of his career-high and the same can be said of his 12 doubles. He is not the best defensive catcher in baseball, but he has been adequate and his respectable on base percentage with some pop makes him a dangerous bat in the Red Sox lineup.
Jeff Karstens, SP, Pirates
This former Yankees prospect is not just having a good season, he is having a Cy Young caliber season! At 28 years old, the right-handed finesse hurler boasts a 2.28 ERA with a stellar 1.04 WHIP. His lack of strikeouts may frustrate some fantasy managers, but Karstens has surrendered just 11 earned runs over his last 10 starts.
Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies
You have to wonder how many chances this guy will get but because of injuries and the struggles of his peers, Dexter Fowler is getting another shot to leadoff for the Rockies. Fowler is batting .342 since the All-Star break with 10 runs in 11 games with three steals. Just 25 years old, Fowler is too young to turn the page on for now.
James McDonald, SP, Pirates
There is no question about it, of all of the Pirates hurlers, James McDonald has the best stuff. Sure, he has some control issues, but his 92 strikeouts, seven wins, and 3.95 ERA will get your attention. A former top prospect with the Dodgers, McDonald has gone 11-9 with a 3.79 ERA in 31 starts. At 26 years old, McDonald should still have his best years ahead of him.
The Top-5 2012 Fantasy Baseball Surprises
Fantasy Baseball’s Surprise Party:
1) Ichiro hits under .300
The future Hall of Famer may be labeled somewhat of a one-trick pony, but at least he always had that trick, which was the ability to rack up hits at an unprecedented level. Suzuki boasts a .327 career average and never before has hit for lower than a .303 average through 10 years in the Major Leagues. However, at the moment, Suzuki’s average is under .270. When you consider that Ichiro actually started the season quite well with a .328 average through the first month of the season, you have to wonder if the 37-year-old veteran is finally slowing down. Suzuki will also have his third straight season with fewer than 100 runs scored.
2) Lance Berkman’s Power Stroke
Since blasting a career-high 45 home runs in 2006, Lance Berkman’s annual home run total has declined in four straight seasons. That streak has come to an end this season, as the 35-year-old veteran has nearly doubled last year’s total already with 27 home runs. After hitting just one dinger in 106 at bats last season with the Yankees, it looked like Berkman was playing on borrowed time. However, the Cardinals outfielder is instead enjoying an MVP caliber season.
3) Manny’s Retirement
With just one hit through 17 at bats, it looked like the worst was out of the way for Rays recently acquired outfielder Manny Ramirez. However, the legend in Boston who enjoyed a heck of a half-season with the Dodgers would never again stare down another pitch. No, Ramirez, approaching his 38th birthday, was caught using performance-enhancing drugs for the second time in his career and a hasty and quiet retirement soon followed. 555 home runs and a .312 average likely won’t be enough to bring Manny to Cooperstown.
4) Bartolo Colon Back in the Majors
He’s a former Cy Young award winner with 150-plus wins under his belt, but Colon was never expected to play a key role in this season considering we last saw him pitch in 2009 when he finished a season with the White Sox with a 3-6 record. However, after plenty of rest and a controversial arm surgery, Colon is back in a big way for the Yankees. Armed with great command and some serious heat, Colon improved his record to 7-6 this weekend with a fine 3.29 ERA
5) 2011 Free Agent Busts: Werth, Crawford, and Dunn
The big bats on the market this past winter were Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn. They all came into the season with stellar career marked with consistency and fairly predictable production.
Jayson Werth, for instance, has belted 20-plus home runs with 10 plus steals, and an average north of .265 in each of the last three seasons. Werth is currently batting just .219 with 11 home runs in what was supposed to be his prime at 32-years old.
Carl Crawford has hit less than .300 just once in the last six seasons entering this season. Well, now he’s batting .254, and his steals are on pace to be his lowest season total since his rookie season.
Finally, Adam Dunn has hit either 38 or 40 home runs in each of the last six seasons. He currently boasts just nine home runs, and his .160 average is 100 points off last season’s batting clip.
The Fantasy Doctor: Finding Cures to Your Fantasy Ailments
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Ailment: Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians
The former Indians MVP candidate has been slowed by injuries and will now miss the next month because of another knee injury coupled with a sports hernia. Even when he was on the field, this is not the Sizemore who was routinely a first round pick in fantasy leagues. Nope, the All-Star who once swiped 38 bases has not stolen a single bag this season through 61 games.
Cure: Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
It seems like he has been a top prospect for more than a decade. The truth is that at just 24-years-old, Maybin is still plenty young, and he is currently enjoying his best season to date. He seems to fit well in Petco Park playing small ball with 44 runs and 17 steals through 80 games.
Ailment: Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Rockies
After a stellar rookie campaign we expected more of the same from Chacin this season. However, the Rockies hurler has inexplicably lost his demand, most recently walking seven Braves on Thursday. His ERA spiked to 3.60, which isn’t bad at all for the ballpark he pitches in, but still Chacin has surrendered four or more runs in four of his last five starts.
Cure: Vance Worley, SP, Phillies
The 24-year-old hurler came out of nowhere, but it looks like he is here to stay. Injuries to Joe Blanton and Roy Oswalt have thrust Vance Worley into the Phillies rotation and he has responded with a 6-1 record and a 2.02 ERA. He can still get plagued by wildness at times, but he does rack up a decent amount of whiffs, and he has won his last four decisions.
Ailment: Ty Wigginton, 3B/1B/2B/OF, Rockies
This is what happens to streaky hitters. Ty Wigginton was on top of the world in June with 8 home runs and 18 RBI. However, he has yet to go deep once this month and his average this month is down to .204. It’s not a bad idea to look for other options.
Cure: Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Blue Jays
Just 28 years old, Encarnacion has 107 home runs under his belt, but they do come in bunches. He has been red-hot since the All-Star break with a home run and a .400 average. With the veteran seeing the ball so well in a fine lineup, it’s not a bad idea to invest in his fantasy services for the short-term.
Ailment: Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Brewers
He was once the best closer in the business and he holds the record for most saves in a season, however, a less than dominant tenure in New York landed him in Milwaukee where he now offers middle relief. Despite pitching in middle relief, K-Rod was credited with a blown save on Thursday. He does not get enough strikeouts or offer a low enough ERA and WHIP to remain on a fantasy roster.
Cure: Edward Mujica, RP, Marlins
Marlins manager Jack McKeon showed his cards this week, stating that if Leo Nunoz gets moved, Mujica becomes his closer. This is well-deserved to Mujica, who boasts a 35:5 strikeout to walk ratio. His 2.85 ERA and 0.87 WHIP makes him a solid pick up for fantasy managers hoping to snare a closer for later in the season.
With Stephen Drew Out, Who to Pick Up?
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Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Brewers
There’s been talk of the Brewers looking to upgrade at shortstop, but those plans may be on hold now that Betancourt is starting to show some life at the plate. The 29-year-old had a fine 2010 campaign with the Royals, blasting 16 home runs with 78 RBI, despite a .288 on base percentage. That on base percentage is just .265 this season, but with two home runs and four RBI over the last three games, he may be on the rebound.
Josh Reddick, OF, Red Sox
There have been bigger prospects to play in the Red Sox outfield in recent years, but few have had the impact of Josh Reddick. The 17th round pick out of Middle Georgia Junior College has been en fuego all season. He has 3 home runs over the last 10 games and now boasts a .378 average. He has also been patient at the plate and has been hitting the ball with power. Look for the Red Sox to continue to give Reddick at bats as long as he sustains the production.
Javier Vazquez, SP, Marlins
On June 11, there were some questions as to whether the Marlins would simply cut Javier Vazquez loose considering his ERA had ballooned up to 7.09 through 13 starts this season after enduring a 5.32 ERA in the Bronx last season. The Marlins stuck with the soon to be 35-year-old, and it has paid off handsomely. Vazquez has surrendered seven earned runs over the last six starts. In his last start he handled the Cubs with 10 K’s in 7 innings. Considering his high strikeout potential and past dominance, it’s not a bad idea to take a flyer on the veteran hurler.
Emilio Bonifacio, SS/3B/OF/2B, Marlins
One of the bigger success stories on the Marlins this season has been 26-year-old speedster Emilio Bonifacio. The story here is of a player who has all the speed in the world, but has historically struggled to reach base. That’s not the credit this season. His on base percentage has soared from 30% to 32% and finally 37% over the last three seasons. Bonifacio currently boasts 18 steals with 42 runs scored. He’s something of a one-dimensional weapon, but Bonifacio will get you steals.
Michael Martinez, OF/2B/SS/3B, Phillies
The 28-year-old rookie has already manned five of the nine positions this season. I know Mets fans would love to know who Michael Martinez is after he belted a key home run again them last series. It’s a little bit of a tough question to answer because of his limited playing time. We can say that last season he blasted 11 home runs with 56 RBI and 23 steals while splitting time between AA and AAA. So, there is a nice blend of pop and speed there, but in the Phillies lineup and in the favorable ballpark some damage can be done. Fantasy managers should pay attention considering the position eligibility.
Stephen Strasburg On the Mend (MLB Injury Updates)
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The Injury Report:
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
Guess who’s back! The man who routinely hit 100 MPH on the radar gun as a starter last season is on his way back and is already up to 95 MPH following Tommy John surgery. Strasburg is apparently in mid-spring training mode, as far as his recovery. That puts him about a month and a half away from the Major Leagues assuming all goes well. That, of course, is a wide assumption considering how serious this injury was. Nonetheless, if you have the roster space and could use an arm for the playoff run, Strasburg could play a role this season.
Chien-Ming Wang, SP, Nationals
Once the ace of the New York Yankees, this Taiwan native enjoyed back-to-back 19-win seasons in 2006 and 2007. Injuries have since limited Wang to just 27 appearances. His last outing actually came more than two years ago on July 4, 2009. The 31-year old right-hander hopes that there is still something left in the tank. He is currently in the midst of a rehab start and Davey Johnson hinted that he is just a start away from joining the Major League club. Even in his prime, Wang’s value was limited because he pitches to contact, however, in the National League his ERA can dip to a respectable level so keep an eye on his progress.
Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays
The top prospect in the Blue Jays system was supposed to make his Major League debut more than a month ago, but then an injury forced him to the bench. The Blue Jays have made it clear that they will take the cautious route with Lawrie, who is dominating at Las Vegas despite learning a new position (third base). Look for Lawrie to spend at least the next two weeks in the Minor Leagues. Some good news is that current third baseman Edwin Encarnacion has heated up over the last month, even though he is clearly a short-term solution.
Jason Heyward, OF, Braves / Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves
The Braves are very much in contention in spite of the awful play of Jason Heyward this season. For a second straight season the much-heralded prospect has dealt with some injuries, and it’s an ankle injury that has forced Heyward to miss out on the friendly confines of Coors Field. It’s been a power outage for Heyward this season, as his slugging is currently under .400. Before the panic sets in remember, this talent is just 21-years old. He is listed as day-to-day because of an ankle injury, but he is expected to play tonight.
Chipper Jones has been plagued by injuries for what seems like a decade now. The 38-year old remains one of the better power options in the Braves lineup, even though the career .304 hitter has been a .260 hitter the last three seasons. Recovering from minor knee surgery, Jones is still a few weeks away from returning to the Braves lineup, but he has taken some live batting practice and believes he may be a bit ahead of schedule.
David Wright, 3B Mets / Ike Davis, 3B, Mets
The big question for Mets fans is whether we will ever see Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright in the lineup together again. While Wright is enjoying a rehab stint, Carlos Beltran can be traded any day now. Wright is recovering from a stress fracture in his lower back. The 28-year old has been raking at Class-A, and has set this weekend as a possible return date.
Such progress has not come to Ike Davis, the Mets young first baseman who appeared on his way to breakout season before injuring his ankle. While the New York tabloids have gone back and forth on rumors surrounding whether he will be shut down this season, Davis himself has said that if he does not make serious progress in the next three weeks, the season will be lost. The Mets have been thrilled with the play of replacements Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda. In fact, when Wright does return it may make the most sense to alternate Murphy and Duda at first, while also playing Murphy a bit at second base.
The Next Batch of Rookies: Kipnis, Turner, Goldschmidt, Jennings, and Gibson
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Rookies On the Way:
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians
A second round pick out of Arizona State, this 24-year old is bound for a late call-up by the contending Indians. A .300 hitter in the Minor Leagues, Kipnis has deployed a nice combination of power and speed at Triple-A this season. Considering second base is currently being help by Orlando Cabrera, who is batting just .244, it seems like promoting Kipnis would actually be an upgrade at the Major League level.
Jacob Turner, SP, Tigers
Just 20-years old, Turner was the ninth overall pick of the 2009 draft and his ability to throw strikes may be enough to earn a call-up to the Big League level. The Tigers are not afraid to bring a young hurler to the Majors, after all, they did with the 20-year old Rick Porcello just three years ago. Turner is able to miss bats more effectively than Porcello, so in other words he has greater potential.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks seem afraid to let their young players contribute. Heck it took long enough for Brandon Allen to earn the call up to the Majors this season despite blasting 25 home runs last season at Triple-A. The problem here is that Allen, who hit 18 home runs with a .306 average at Triple-A before recently earning a promotion. Then there’s Paul Goldschmidt, a former 8th round pick with 80 home runs through three Minor League seasons. It might make sense to trade one of these two boppers, but with a .424 OBP and a .616 slugging, it looks like Goldschmidt is the one they want to keep.
Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
The Rays have come to realize that they called upon Desmond Jennings to contribute a bit too early last season. They also are doing a great job of alleviating the pressure of replacing Carl Crawford from Jennings this season by keeping him in the Minors for an extended period. However, do not be confused, Jennings is very much a long-term solution for the Rays. After a mediocre start to the season, Jennings has come on as of late with 12 home runs, 17 steals, and now a .280 average. He still fans a bit too often, but Jennings has all five tools and will make his return to the Big Leagues in the coming weeks.
Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins
The 22nd pick of the 2009 draft, Gibson is a 6’6 right-hander with front of the rotation potential. He hasn’t had the best season so far at Triple-A, as his record is just 3-8 with a 4.68 ERA. However, the number to pay attention to is the 22 walks in 90.1 innings. While his stuff is solid, as suggested by his average of a strikeout per inning, what’s more impressive is his ability to control his entire arsenal of pitches. Improved game-calling by Major League catchers should help Gibson out, but based on his stuff and control, he could be a surprise contributor in the pennant race.
Fantasy Baseball Average Joes
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Daniel Murphy, Utility, Mets
I am not sure what the Mets will do once Ike Davis returns to the lineup be it this year or next. Daniel Murphy is simply a hired bat who can offer some serious offense. The problem is on the defensive side, as Murphy is at his best at third base, which happens to be the home for Mr. David Wright.
Murphy has his average up to .315 this season, with line drive power: 6 HR, 21 doubles and 2 triples. Murphy has hit .385 this month after hitting .330 in June.
Murphy is just 26 years old and bats left-handed, so this is a nice problem to have for the Mets.
Alex Gordon, OF, Royals
The second overall pick of the 2005 draft, Gordon has long been considered a bust due to the slow start to his career, but this season he has finally met expectations.
The 27-year old boasts 11 home runs with 24 doubles and 8 swipes. His average is up to .296 after batting just .215 last season. His plate discipline has been so impressive that the team opted to have him leadoff before pushing him down in the order to take advantage of his power.
Gordon is now considered a potential trade target for teams in need of offense.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Royals
You would think Jeff Francoeur is 40 years old since he’s played for three teams over the last year. Though he has not been able to sustain the hot start to the season (after batting .316 in April, Francoeur hit just .233 and .235 the next two months), he has found a way to contribute to a fantasy roster. He’s doing this on the basepaths, as he has already swiped 15 bases, nearly double his previous high.
The .266 average still leaves something to be desired, but his 13 home runs and 58 RBI may be enough to force yet another trade.
Michael Morse, OF, Nationals
At 29 years old, Morse is a late bloomer, but he is also one of the better hitters in baseball right now with an even .300 average and 15 home runs. Morse has already matched his previous career-high in home runs, set last season. His OBP is a healthy .348 and while walks are hard to come by, Morse makes up for it with a .523 slugging percentage.
Jon Jay, OF, Cardinals
This 26-year old left-handed hitter was drafted in the second round of the 2006 draft out of Miami. However, Jay never quite earned top prospect status, and this year he has surprised people as a solid platoon option.
Jay is hurt by a lack of patience at the plate and limited power, but you can’t argue with the .310 average, which comes a season after hitting .300. In total, Jay boasts a .304 career average with 11 home runs in 516 at bats.
Jay has made a case to get regular at bats, considering he hits both lefties and righties for at least a .300 average throughout his career. However, with Lance Berkman leading the league in homers, Jay’s playing time will continue to be limited for the remainder of the season.
Bloomberg Sports 