by Jonah Keri //
Ballpark Figures: Stock Report — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele talks with Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw to discuss the bulls and bears on the stock report. Shaw remains bullish on Carlos Lee, despite his poor season numbers. He tells us to keep Pablo Sandoval on the bench temporarily. Finally, Clayton Kershaw is a great buy low option with his ERA more than a run above last season.
by Eno Sarris //
We’ve quoted Russell Carlton’s study about the benchmarks when different statistics become significant plenty of times here. In that study, he basically asked how long it took for a statistic to reliably predict itself in one season. Given a batter’s batting average, for example, how many plate appearances does it take until that average predicts his future in-season batting average to a 70% reliability? The answer, in this case, is never. Batting average is one of the most volatile statistics in baseball, and subsequently we’re always chasing those hits in fantasy play.
While batting average itself doesn’t normalize quickly, there are some interesting quirks in the component pieces. For example, line drive rate becomes significant within 40 plate appearances. In other words, the poor-line-drive-hitting players do actually have something to worry about in the early going. While BABIP doesn’t become significant over one season, one of the main components of BABIP – line drive rate – steadies rather quickly.
It follows that players with poor BABIPs are not created equally. A player with a poor line drive rate (the average line drive rate is around 19%) may end the season with a poor BABIP, and therefore a poor batting average. That makes our mission clear. Let’s take a look at the 10 worst BABIPs in the majors, courtesy of FanGraphs. Not surprisingly, the list is filled with under-achievers.
It’s nice how quickly you can get a sense of which of these players is more ready for a rebound in batting average than the rest. For example, Carlos Quentin may have something to worry about. He’s just not centering the ball, and with a poor line drive this year as well as over his career (15.7%), he may actually end up being a guy with power and poor batting averages once we look back on his full career. That’s another way of seeing how misleading batting average can be – even though we are more than 1500 plate appearances into Quentin’s career, there’s a non-zero chance that he’s better than his .248 career batting average so far. On the other hand, this spider graph from the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools might actually show us who he really is.
There are other names on that list that pop out as ready to bust out. We’ve heard a million times how Mark Teixeira is just a slow starter, he’s got an average line drive rate, and for some reason nearly 80% of his balls in play are becoming outs. That shouldn’t continue, nor should Casey Kotchman continue to be this unlucky on balls in play.
You can use a player’s batted ball profile – their groundballs, flyballs, line drives – and their speed – measured by stolen bases for now – to predict what their BABIP should be. This stat, often called xBABIP, does a good job of pointing out which players are ready for the rebound as well. Here’s the original article, by Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton, that also included an xBABIP calculator.
Check out the same 10 players from above, with their batting average, BABIP and xBABIP as columns. Players with the highest xBABIPs on this list suffer from the worst luck and are therefore the best bets for improved batting averages in the future.
So there you have it. Feel good about Nick Johnson, Teixeira and Kotchman, and worry a little about Quentin and Aramis Ramirez in particular. BABIP is always a useful tool when looking at slumping batting averages, but xBABIP and its component stats help us complete the picture.
by Jonah Keri //
Ballpark Figures: Headlines — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele talks with Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw to discuss the latest headlines from the diamond this past weekend. Shaw tells us to pick up the recently perfect Dallas Braden for his starts at Oakland Coliseum. That Bobby Jenks is on the verge of losing the White Sox closer’s gig, while Matt Thornton is a hot pick up. Plus, Shaw tells us that the Phillies and Pirates are cautiously optimistic about the performance of closers Brad Lidge and Octavio Dotel.
By Tommy Rancel //
Last season, Scott Kazmir‘s potential became too expensive for the Tampa Bay Rays. Through injuries and inconsistency, Kazmir was never able to regain his pre-2008 ace form. With more than $20 million guaranteed to the lefty, Rays General Manager Andrew Friedman could no longer bank on just potential.
In a semi-controversial move, the organization traded the most successful pitcher in the franchise’s history to the deeper-pocketed Los Angeles Angels in what many casual fans considered a “salary dump.” However, looking at the quality of the three players Tampa Bay received — Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres, and Matt Sweeney — and the early-season struggles of Kazmir, it seems the Rays pulled the trigger just in time.
In Los Angeles, Kazmir has reunited with former pitching coach Mike Butcher. Butcher spent one season with the (Devil) Rays in 2006. It just so happened to be one of Kazmir’s best seasons; his 3.24 ERA that season is still a career best. Looking at fielding independent pitching (FIP), which takes defense out of the equation, instead measuring walks, strikeouts and home runs, his 3.36 mark that season was a career best as well.
There was hope that once re-united with Butcher, some of the inconsistencies that plagued Kazmir in 2008 and 2009 would disappear. More importantly, there was hope that his once dominant slider as well as his mid-90s fastball would reappear.
The early returns on Kazmir in Los Angeles were very good. In six starts down the stretch last season, he went 2-2 with a 1.73 ERA and 2.93 FIP. He used his slider a healthy 19.1% of the time and his fastball velocity jumped from 90.7 with the Rays to 92.5 with the Angels; potential signs that Kazmir might put it together in 2010.
Unfortunately, things are not going according to plan this season. Despite his respectable 2-2 record, Kazmir has a 7.11 ERA and a 6.43 FIP thus far. A former American League strikeout champion (2007), Kazmir is on pace to strike out fewer than eight batters per nine innings for the second straight season. While his strikeouts have slightly faded, his walk rate is climbing. He has handed out 16 free passes in just 25.1 innings – a walks per nine innings rate of 5.7.
Kazmir is throwing his fastball around 90 mph right now and is using his slider just 8.2% of the time – a career low. In a slight bit of good news, Kazmir has developed a pretty good change-up. However, between the change-up and fastball, he’s basically a two-pitch starter right now.
It should be noted that Kazmir did battle with a hamstring and (another) arm injury this spring, but one would think the Angels wouldn’t send him out there if he wasn’t 100%. After all, he is still owed more than $20 million. Whether the problem is physical (meaning delivery) or mental, Scott Kazmir just isn’t very good right now.
If you drafted Kazmir, hopefully you took past history into account and didn’t select him with the intent of anchoring your rotation. Despite the ups and downs of the past few seasons, he has won double-digit games five straight years. With two wins already, he should get there again. Meanwhile, if you’re expecting the Kid K of 2007, you’re going to end up disappointed. At this point of the season, it is too early to dump him outright, but it may be time to take a page out of Andrew Friedman’s book, and get what you can in a trade instead of banking on potential that may never pay off.
For more on Scott Kazmir and the Los Angeles Angels, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.
By BloombergSportsPro //
Johan Santana had one of the worst starts of his career a couple of nights ago, giving up 10 runs in 3.2 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies. I’m going to use the Bloomberg Sports Professional tool to take a look at his start and see if anything stands out as the cause of Santana’s struggles. Most of the analysis will be based on pitch f/x data, one data source which the tool integrates and puts into a more useable, visual format.
One issue which has come up over the last few years, when talking about Santana, is his velocity. While Santana used to sit in the low 90s and touch the mid 90s his fastball velocity has dipped significantly over the past few seasons. In his last start Santana threw seventy seven fastballs and pitch f/x only picked up two with a release speed of over 90 mph.
Given his recent velocity troubles this was the first thing I checked in the tool. It seems, however, that Santana’s velocity was much improved in Philadelphia compared to his previous start. Santana threw 41 fastballs against the Phillies and 23 had a release velocity of over 90 mph. This rate of 56.1% of his fastballs being over 90 mph is just about the same as his 2009 season where 958 of the 1603 fastballs (59.8%) were measured at over 90 mph. Given the fact that Johan tends to build velocity as the season goes along this should actually be an encouraging sign for Mets fans.
During the game the announcers brought up the issue of Santana’s pitch selection. Primarily they were wondering why Johan was relying exclusively on his fastball and change-up. I decided to examine Johan’s pitch selection to see if this might be the cause of his struggles.
While Santana only threw 7 breaking balls it doesn’t seem like his rates were different against the Phillies compared to the previous two seasons. If anything he was throwing sliders slightly more frequently. This makes sense, as the Phillies have more left-handed hitters than most teams and Johan generally throws his slider to lefties and his change-up to right-handed batters.
It seems as though we can rule out velocity and pitch selection as potential causes for Santana’s struggles in Philadelphia. The third factor which I wanted to look at was pitch location. Santana is generally thought of as one of the most accurate and aggressive pitchers in baseball, throwing about 55% of his pitches within the strike zone, consistently one of the highest rates in baseball. Santana had 48 strikes and 23 balls yesterday (this includes swinging strikes not just balls in the strike zone), almost exactly what one would expect, so it doesn’t seem like he was having problems throwing strikes.
Throwing strikes is only one part of the equation in control, though. A pitcher must hit the right spots in order to succeed. Santana gave up 5 extra base hits during last night’s game. Here are the locations of the pitches which the Phillies hit hard.
Four of the five extra base hits which Santana allowed were on fastballs (the red markers.) All four of those fastballs were right over the heart of the plate and at least waist high. The fifth hit, Ryan Howard’s Home Run, came on a change-up which was low and away.
Every pitcher throws some pitches right over the heart of the plate. Did the Phillies do an especially good job of taking advantage of Johan’s mistakes? Let’s take a look at the location of every pitch which Santana threw last night.
Santana threw a lot of pitches right down the middle yesterday. Out of the 66 pitches tracked by pitch f/x 17 of them (25.8%) were located right in the middle of the strike zone. This includes 13 of the 41 fastballs (31.7%) which he threw. How often does Santana usually throw pitches in that zone?
The image above shows us the location of every pitch which Santana had thrown in 2010 before the game against the Phillies. Santana threw 78 of his 514 pitches (15.2%) in the center of the strike zone, including 63 of his 308 fastballs (20.5%.) For the 2009 season Johan threw 14.5% of his pitches and 16.3% of his fastballs in this section of the strike zone. While Johan was able to throw a similar number of pitches in the strike zone he did not have the kind of accuracy within the strike zone which he relies on to get batters out. By throwing so many pitches right down the middle, Santana gave the Phillies an opportunity to put good swings on pitches. They obliged, crushing four home runs and a double.
Johan Santana is not the power pitcher he once was. He relies on his accuracy and intelligence as a pitcher to consistently get batters out. When his accuracy falters, as it did in Philadelphia, he can be very hittable. Santana’s future success will depend heavily on his ability to locate his pitches. He has demonstrated control on par with the best pitchers in baseball over his career so it seems way too early for Mets fans to worry. The fact that Santana’s velocity increased and that he was throwing his usual selection of pitches are both good signs. If you want to know whether Santana will bounce back you now know where to look – the location and quality of strikes which he is throwing.
By Bloomberg Sports //
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Shields’ strand rate points to a pitcher who’s had a lucky season. But
the Rays righty has also posted a flukishly high 16.6% HR/FB rate.
Shields’ ERA is an impressive 3.15; his xFIP is also 3.15, suggesting
that his good and bad luck are evening out. He’s the outlier of the
strand-lucky group.
Justin Verlander:
Striking out a lot of batters? Check. Not walking too many batters?
Check. Not allowing an obscene amount of home runs? Check. How’s his
hit rate? Also reasonable. Despite all that, Verlander has a 4.50 ERA,
when his FIP is just 3.34. A low strand rate (61.9%) is owed much of
the blame. If the Tigers can continue to play strong defense and throw
up good relief pitching numbers, that would only help Verlander even
more.
By R.J. Anderson //
Nobody could blame Adrian Beltre if he wanted to distance himself from the 2009 season as much as possible. Not only did he endure a horrendous offensive season in which he posted a .683 OPS, he also suffered an injury to a certain male region that should never be used in the same sentence as the term “ruptured”. Nonetheless, Beltre became eligible for free agency and joined the Boston Red Sox. A stronger supporting cast figured to help his counting stats, while a far friendlier ballpark for hitters figured to boost his overall offensive production.
Thus far, Beltre is hitting .343 AVG/.375 OBP/.467 SLG. Previously, Beltre posted a batting average above .300 exactly once in his 12-season career. Meanwhile, his career Isolated Slugging (ISO, slugging average minus batting average) is .182, much higher than this season’s .124.
Beltre’s .386 BABIP is certainly the highest of his career, and miles away from his .292 career mark. Of Beltre’s 36 hits, only nine have been of the extra base variety. Putting up 75% singles looks more like a Nick Punto season, not the kind of numbers you expect from a player who hit at least 25 home runs each season from 2006 through 2008, with 252 career homers.
What gives? Beltre’s 4% HR/FB ratio is a career low, even worse than his 5.6% in 2009. This seems unlikely to continue to be the case. In past seasons at Safeco Field – a park that strongly curbs extra-base hits by right-handed batters – Beltre was still able to launch more than 10% of his fly balls over the wall. A move to Fenway Park – an extra-base hit paradise for righties who can get the ball up in the air and deep – Beltre should not see his power disappear.
As it stands, Beltre is second among third baseman in hits and second in batting average, behind division rival Evan Longoria. The season is a month old and odds are Beltre is going to finish with a higher batting average than originally expected. But there’s little reason to believe Beltre’s skill set has completely morphed from hulking slugger to Ichiro Suzuki clone. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
For more on Adrian Beltre, check out Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools.
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by Jonah Keri //
Ballpark Figures: Head-to-Head — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele talks with Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw to preview the exciting weekend in Major League Baseball. The topic of choice is the match-up between the Red Sox and Yankees. Shaw tells us that Marcus Thames and Adrian Beltre are major sleepers to keep an eye on, while Alex Rodriguez is bound to get hot.
By Tommy Rancel //
In this era of advanced statistical analysis, some of baseball’s traditional stats have become less relevant when evaluating players. One of those metrics is batting average. That’s not to say batting average isn’t useful, or isn’t a sign of hitting ability, but it doesn’t tell a complete story. Plus, there are other statistics like on-base percentage – or weighted on-base average for more advanced followers – that are more useful.
The value of batting average has changed in real life evaluations; on the other hand, in fantasy baseball, one of the game’s simplest statistics still holds weight. As an owner, you may be able to leverage a high batting average in a trade that nets a bigger piece to your puzzle without sacrificing an important piece of your team.
Martin Prado is a prime example of a player who has his fantasy value tied into his batting average.
In real life, Prado is a good player. With his role increasing over the past few years, he has put up very good numbers from the middle infield position. His career slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) is a very respectable .310/.364/.451 and his defense is generally accepted as average. Without much power or speed, but a good average, Prado looks like a young Placido Polanco.
Graph courtesy of Fangraphs.com
Prado’s efforts have largely gone under the radar because he doesn’t possess a hulk-smashing power stroke, nor is he considered a defensive dynamo. Still, in 2010, Prado has gotten off to another good start. He is hitting .339/.397/.459 thus far, with the bulk of his value again in that batting average.
Currently, Prado has a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .382. Compare that elevated figure to the average ballplayer’s BABIP of around .300. For his career, Prado has maintained an elevated BABIP of .341; even at that level, a .382 mark suggests that some batting average regression will be coming.
Beyond the potential BABIP regression, let’s take a look at the types of hits Prado gets. He is not a power hitter, although he did belt 11 home runs last year. Outside of those 503 plate appearances (PA) in 2009, he has four home runs total in his other 482 PAs – including one home run in 117 PAs this season. He does have 70 career doubles and five triples; however 68% of his 276 career hits have been singles. This season, 26 of his 37 hits have gone for one base.
Even if the regression happens, you’ll likely be left with a good (but not great) hitter. If you’re already looking good in the batting average category, Prado could be a valuable trade piece to cash in for power or steals – commodities he lacks.
In a standard 10-12 mixed league, Prado’s average could be used to net a slumping/slow-starting power-hitter who will not only provide home runs, but RBI as well.
A prime target would be Hunter Pence of the Houston Astros. Here at Bloomberg Sports, we have already talked about Pence being a slow starter; 2010 has been no different. We also noted that Pence usually gets going around this time and doesn’t look back. With back-to-back 25 home run seasons under his belt, there is nothing to suggest that the 27 year-old can’t produce the same in 2010 once his bat heats up.
Alternatively, you could keep Prado as a batting average buffer and go after a high-power, low-average hitter. Carlos Pena and his .200 batting average could make a strong target. The Rays first baseman is blessed with 35-homer power and hits fifth in one of the most dynamic lineups in baseball, making him a great candidate for big counting stats.
There is no rush to trade Prado. The in-season updated projections from ZiPS (for more on ZiPS click here) have him hitting .311/.365/.439 with eight home runs in 2010. However, if you can leverage his batting average in a trade and pick up a struggling player like Pence, who is projected to hit 22 home runs and drive in 76 runs by the same projection system, it might be something worth looking into. Or keep Prado and go after a Pena type. Either way, you’ve got options.
For more on Martin Prado and high batting average players, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.
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