(Video) Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 5

By Bloomberg Sports //

Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele and Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw shift the conversation from the players who were traded to the players who will now enjoy an opportunity to play everyday now that spots have opened up after the trade deadline. Shaw focuses on the fantasy value of Diamondbacks hurler Daniel Hudson, Indians outfielder Shelley Duncan, Indians closer Chris Perez, and Astros first baseman Brett Wallace. For more fantasy insight, visit us at BloombergSports.com and Twitter.com/Bloombergsports.

(Video) Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 4

By Bloomberg Sports //

Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele and Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw shift the conversation from the players who were traded to the players who will now enjoy an opportunity to play everyday now that spots have opened up after the trade deadline. Shaw focuses on the fantasy value of Royals outfielder Alex Gordon, Indians infielder Jayson Nix and Andy Marte, Orioles utility man Ty Wigginton, Marlins rookie Logan Morrison, and Nationals soon-to-be-closer Drew Storen. For more fantasy insight, visit us at BloombergSports.com and Twitter.com/Bloombergsports.

Ted Lilly in Los Angeles

By Eriq Gardner //

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In his 12-season career, Ted Lilly has played for six teams, but no home environment marks a better fit for the veteran pitcher than Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
Traded there last week, Lilly brings with him nice surface stats, including an ERA of 3.56 and a 1.09 WHIP. However, as noted here in June, Lilly has been getting rather lucky this season, as his strikeout rate has fallen to a career low (6.82 K/9 IP).
Whiffing fewer batters means putting more balls in play. For Lilly, that’s potentially disastrous. Nearly 52% of balls hit off Lilly are flyballs. Typically, that translates to a lot of home runs allowed. In Lilly’s case, he’s giving up 1.45 HRs per nine innings — a poisonous rate for an ordinary pitcher.
However, when Lilly has given up a home run this season, he’s been fortunate enough to survive without too much harm to his ERA. Of the 20 HRs that Lilly has given up this season, 11 have come with the bases empty and seven of come with only one man on base. Thanks to being both good (2.1 BB/9 IP) and lucky (.252 BABIP), Lilly’s opponents haven’t been clogging the bases at a frequent enough rate to hang him when he gives up the long ball.
Playing for Chicago, Lilly was a primary candidate for significant regression, as his FIP and xFIP (measures which run along the same scale as ERA, but strip out luck, park factors and other variables) are nearly a full run higher than his ERA.
A move to Los Angeles offers some amnesty from the expected regression. Wrigley Field boosts HRs by right-handed batters by five percent whereas Dodger Stadium depresses HRs by right-handed batters by eight percent. About 85% of home runs off Lilly have come from right-handed batters in his career. Moreover, Dodger Stadium boosts strikeouts by about seven percent. 

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In sum, Lilly’s flyball tendencies and dwindling ability to overpower batters with strikeouts won’t cause nearly as much trouble in friendly Los Angeles. And he could also get help in another important way.
Remarkably, despite a wonderful ERA this season, Lilly had only three wins in 2010 playing for the Chicago Cubs. His former club offered the fourth-worst run support in the National League. According to statistics kept by Baseball Prospectus, Lilly would have gotten 10 wins playing with an average offense.
On Tuesday, Lilly picked up his fourth win of the season, perhaps some cause for optimism for Lilly’s fantasy owners who have been been both lucky and unlucky with Lilly this season.
For more on starting pitchers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office

Supreme Court Justice in the Outfield

by Eno Sarris //

Okay, so it’s not only the missing ‘h’ that separates the Cardinal’s Jon Jay from former American supreme court justice John Jay – those 200 years are quite the chasm. But the Cardinals’ version of Jay is taking on a new role, after Ryan Ludwick was traded to the Padres over the weekend. But is he a legitimate fantasy starter in the outfield?

JayGrab.jpgAt first blush, everything seems to rule in favor of Jay’s ability to stick. Looking at the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools spider graphs, he looks like he has power, and the strong batting average helps. A .366/.415/.553 batting line should play on any fantasy team. Even a summary check of his minor league numbers this year (.321/.394/.491) would pass inspection. It’s a heckuva fast start.

A longer look, though, takes some the shine off Jay’s profile. Jay’s batting average on balls in play is an astronomical .424; even the two biggest outliers last year, David Wright and Ichiro Suzuki, had .394 and .384 numbers in 2009. Also, BABIP stabilizes at .300 around baseball every year. So you’ll see Jay’s BABIP, and batting average, come down significantly as natural regression sets in.

Then there’s the minor league record that deserves further review. Minor League Splits.com has a translator that creates major league equivalents for minor league numbers. That translation says Jay’s Triple-A numbers in 2010 would work out to .276/.335/.406 in the big leagues. Useful, but hardly as exciting as the stats he’s putting up currently.

A flaw in Jay’s minor league numbers is a poor split against
left-handed hitters (.685 OPS versus southpaws). That split comes in
only 439 plate appearances, so it’s not definitive, but it exists.
Though it may be an issue, the Cardinals did start Jay against lefty Zach Duke over the weekend. Then again, there is a threat coming from Allen Craig as well, who actually sports better numbers against lefties (.900 career OPS versus lefties in the minor leagues) and has his own solid batting line down on the farm (.307/.369/.511). Craig has shown more power in the minor leagues and is a threat to Jay’s playing time, as the justice’s batted ball luck evens out. 

Zoom out on the minor league numbers for Jay, and you’ll notice an inconsistent slugging percentage. Just last year, Jay had a .281/.338/.394 batting line with the same Memphis team, numbers which didn’t result in any sort of major league callup. That’s right, Jay was repeating Triple-A this year, which takes his stats down another notch. After three years of college before his pro career, Jay has always been around average age in his leagues, and at both Double-A and Triple-A, he struggled at first before recovering on his second try.

Obviously, Jay is not struggling with his first shot in the major leagues. But you can also see in the numbers that his power is inconsistent, the speed is decent but not elite (he had a career high of 20 stolen bases in Triple-A in 2009), and there is a threat to his playing time on his team. Even as a batting-average specialist, there may or may not be struggles against lefties in his future, and there’s sure to be some BABIP pullback. The ruling of this court is that Jay is a fine pickup in deep NL-only leagues. But in shallower mixed leagues, there are probably better options out there on the waiver wire.

For more on Jon Jay and other outfielders, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

(Video) Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 3

By Bloomberg Sports //

Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 3 — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele and Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw discuss the latest deals in Major League Baseball. In the third of a five episode series, Shaw focuses on the fantasy value of Dodgers outfielder Scott Podsednik, Tigers infielder Jhonny Peralta, Phillies hurler Roy Oswalt, Astros starting pitcher JA Happ, Padres infielder Miguel Tejada, and Rangers first baseman Jorge Cantu. For more fantasy insight, visit us at BloombergSports.com and Twitter.com/Bloombergsports.

(Video) Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 2

By Bloomberg Sports //

Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 2 — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele and Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw discuss the latest deals in Major League Baseball. In the second of a five episode series, Shaw focuses on the fantasy value of former Pirates closer Octavio Dotel and what a move to the Dodgers means for him, why Jake Westbrook should become a valuable hurler for the Cardinals, how Ted Lilly should peak with the Dodgers, and why Ryan Theriot’s fantasy value peaks now that he plays every day for the Dodgers. For more fantasy insight, visit us at BloombergSports.com and Twitter.com/Bloombergsports.

Closing Time in Pittsburgh

by Eno Sarris // 

When Octavio Dotel took his bag
of strikeouts west to Los Angeles, he left an open question in his
wake: Who will close in Pittsburgh? For once, there are two almost
equally qualified options in the bullpen.

The Bucs have made their initial choice Tuesday night, tapping big right-hander Joel Hanrahan to close out a 7-6 win over the Reds. Hanharan looked good in securing his first save of the season, allowing one hit, no runs, and striking out two.

HanrahanGrab.jpgStill, there’s enough mix-and-match potential here for two Pirates pitchers to be worth a look in standard mixed leagues. Do a side-by-side comparison using the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools, and you’ll see that both Hanrahan
and Evan Meek look like perfectly fine options – despite being very different
pitchers. Manager Jim Russell’s initial refusal to name a new closer suggests that he might just ride the hot hand. On the other hand, Buster Olney did say the team would install Hanrahan once Dotel was moved.

Meek’s strikeout rate (7.61 K/9 this year, 7.48 career) places him only slightly above league average. However, Meek has showed a solid walk rate (2.83
BB/9 this year), a development in his game that is a tribute to the
Pirates’ minor league coaches, who immediately helped him harness his
arsenal after years of struggling with his control. Not new to Meek’s
game is his elite groundball percentage. His current 54.7% groundball
rate is well above the average 44% groundball rate across
baseball, and near his already high career level too (53.7%).

Hanrahan
is no vomit-taste jelly bean either (as an aside, these beans exist,
and apparently they started with pepperoni pizza and added a citrus
taste, says the Discovery Channel). The man with an Irish name and an
Iowa birth certificate is striking out batters at a career-high rate this
year (12.65 K/9), but given his very strong career rate (10.02), this isn’t a
huge surprise. What is a nice surprise is that he’s also stopped
walking people in Pittsburgh (2.64 BB/9 this year, 4.66 career). The
combination has been working well.

The only flaw in his game
might actually make him a better fit at the closer position,
ironically. Hanrahan is more of a strikeout/flyout pitcher, with a
below-average groundball rate (35.8% this year, 37% career). Because
groundballs can lead to double-plays, it might behoove the Pirates to
use Meek in situations where there are runners on as a way to
leverage his talents best. Because flyballs can lead to home runs, it
makes sense to at least start Hanrahan off without any runners on.
Coincidentally, this is usually how closers work.

The last piece
of evidence we can use is the two pitchers’ past usage patterns. Hanrahan has owned
the eighth inning for a couple weeks now, while Meek has had the
seventh, with some stints that spanned multiple innings. Most signs
seem to point to Hanrahan, so if you only have one spot to dedicate to
speculating on Pirates’ saves, he’s the man to pick up.

For more on other bullpen situations, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

(Video) Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 1

By Bloomberg Sports //

Ballpark Figures: MLB Trade Reaction, Part 1 — Bloomberg Television’s Michele Steele and Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Analyst Rob Shaw discuss the latest deals in Major League Baseball. In the first of a five episode series, Shaw focuses on the fantasy value of Twins closer Matt Capps and what to make of Jon Rauch. Shaw tells us what joining the White Sox means for Edwin Jackson, and provides analysis on the latest Yankees trio Kerry Wood, Austin Kearns, and Lance Berkman. Finally, Shaw tells us that Rick Ankiel will likely never be an everyday player now that he joins the Braves. For more fantasy insight, visit us at BloombergSports.com and Twitter.com/Bloombergsports

(Audio) Behind the Numbers w/ Big League Stew’s Kevin “Duk” Kaduk

By Bloomberg Sports //*

Listen now! – (loads in new browser – 28 megs)

Behind the Numbers
Hosts: Rob Shaw and Wayne Parillo
Guest: Kevin “Duk” Kaduk
About the Guest:
Yahoo.com’s Big League Stew’s Kevin “Duk” Kaduk editor/contributor talks the difference between Yahoo and ESPN, lots of Cubs, and how not to overpay for Cubs tickets.
Enjoy the podcast and make sure to follow him on twitter

Total Running Time: 28:28

The High Level Look

  • The rise of Yahoo sports new & how it is different from ESPN (1:00 – 5:23)
  • Cubs Signings & Derrek Lee (6:45 – 9:20)
  • The Prospects & Cubs Future (11:35 – 14:10)
  • The Hawk and other Hall of Famers (18:00 – 23:00)
  • Why this season is so great (23:01 – 27:54)

20 Great Duk Moments in this Podcast

  • (1:44 – 2:23) From Chicago and KC Star to Yahoo
  • (2:30 – 4:13) The Yahoo powerhouse and news
  • (4:14 – 5:23) Being honest and how biasness is okay in the blog world
  • (5:36 – 6:21) Writing Wrigleyworld in 2005
  • (6:45 – 7:40) Marlon Byrd & the last three years of signings
  • (7:41 – 8:10) Ted Lilly
  • (8:12 – 9:20) Reacting to Derrek Lee and his refusal to leave
  • (9:34 – 9:50) Fred McGriff’s refusal to play
  • (9:51 – 10:22) Fans in the stands (or lack thereof) & cheap tickets
  • (10:23 – 11:28) How NOT to overpay for Cubs tckets
  • (11:35 – 12:52) Discussing Castro, Soto, and Colvin & the prospects
  • (12:53 – 14:10) How will Ricketts build the team?
  • (14:11 – 15:00) Why waiting is okay, but no plan is frustrating
  • (15:18 – 17:50) Pitch counts, Strasburg and the continuing debate
  • (18:00 – 19:45) His favorite Hawk Dawson memory involving a mailman
  • (19:51 – 23:00) 1980s and Hof Players – Straight Numbers v Opinion
  • (23:01 – 24:36) The Trade deadline and what to Look For
  • (24:37 – 26:21) The Biggest Blunder the baseball world made this year
  • (26:22 – 26:54) Padres v Giants – a new rivalry
  • (27:28 – 27:54) Final words from Duk

    • Direct link to the conversation

    More ways to get Behind the Numbers, talk to us, or just have a good time

    For more on the hottest fantasy baseball topics and trends, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits.

    The Bravest New Pair

    By R.J. Anderson //

    One of the final trades made before the deadline involved Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel heading to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for three players. The Braves hope these two help as they march toward the playoffs – could the same hold true for your NL-only fantasy team? Let’s take a look.

    Farnsworth

    The long and the short of this one is no. Farnsworth’s superficial number in Kansas City looked much better this year (2.42 ERA) than in 2009 (4.58 ERA). But those numbers are deceiving. Farnsworth has posted big drops in his walk (3.38 BB/9 IP in 2009 to 2.42/9 IP in 2010) and home run rates (0.72 to 0.40) this season. But he’s also seen his strikeout rate take a dive (10.13 to 7.25), while benefiting from a lot of good luck: His home runs per flyball rate has plunged to a career-low 4.5% (career average 11.6%), while his strand rate spiked to 80.8% (career 72.9%).

    Meanwhile, the Braves’ pen is already well stocked. Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito and Peter Moylan are all ahead in the pecking order for save or even hold opportunities. Effectively, Fanrsworth is coming to Atlanta to take the role of a middle reliever. There are better options out there in NL-only leagues, even among the ranks of non-closer relief pitchers.


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    Ankiel

    Ankiel has put up a mediocre line of .253 AVG/.314 OBP/.453 SLG, with four homers in 105 plate appearances. That’s right on par with his previous National League experience, when he hit .251/.311/.452 with the Cardinals. That’s what Ankiel is: a decent power hitter without much in the way of contact, on-base skills, or stolen base skills who’s also a below-average defender.

    Ankiel takes Nate McLouth’s position, after the incumbent center fielder got sent down following a stint on the disabled list with a concussion. Ankiel should be batting somewhere in bottom five of the Braves lineup, which makes him a decent bet for some run production. If you play in a league where positions are counted, then Ankiel has some value in center fielder. Even in standard National League-only leagues, he’s worth a look. Don’t expect the next coming of Jason Heyward and you should be fine.

    For more on Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office