MLB Season in Review: Toronto Blue Jays Hitters

By Jonah Keri //

Biggest Surprise: Jose Bautista

The biggest no-duh of any player we’ll cover in this series,
Bautista’s 52 homers and 119 RBI (so far) are the biggest individual
story in all of baseball. The breakthrough season has elicited all the
expected accusations. But several other factors back up a big home run
spike. Bautista’s flyball rate surged to 54.8%, he hit a home run on
21.8% of his flyballs (tops in the league) and the rest of the Jays
also enjoyed a banner power year, as Rogers Centre played like a
launching pad this season. Either way, many 2010 Bautista owners will
soon enjoy some frothy Yoo-Hoo showers.

Biggest Bust: Aaron Hill

Twenty-five homers from a second baseman are a boon to any fantasy
team; a .206 batting average is not. Hill will finish the year with
well over 500 at-bats and an average near the Mendoza line. Unless you
compensated with an army of Ichiros, your team likely took a big hit in
batting average that may have derailed your run at a title. 

2011 Keeper Alert: Aaron Hill

Fantasy baseball is all about finding value. In Hill’s case, his
incredibly disappointing 2010 season will cause his price to plummet.
But look deeper and you’ll find that his batting average was the result
of a flukishly low .196 batting average on balls in play. The power’s
still there, and the average will bounce back. If you don’t keep him,
draft him at a discount next year.

2011 Regression Alert: Jose Bautista

Another no-brainer, of course. No one expects Bautista to top 50
homers again. But depending on how skeptical your leaguemates are, you
might actually be able to get Bautista for less than full value. Fifty
homers likely won’t happen again, but 35-plus very well could.

For more on Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill, and the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season In Review: Oakland A’s Hitters

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Daric Barton

Barton spent most of 2008 as a regular in A’s lineup, but appeared in just 54 games in 2009. Back in the lineup in 2010, Barton has been an on-base machine. With a triple slash line of .271/.392/.395, he is not the prototypical slugging first baseman – but productive nonetheless. His above-average walk rates have kept his OBP near .400 for most of the season. In addition to the walks, he has 45 extra-base hits and 75 runs scored.

Biggest Bust: Kurt Suzuki

In July, the A’s rewarded Suzuki with a contract extension. He has repaid the team with the worst offensive performance of his four-year career. After 53 extra-base hits a season ago, he has just 31 this year. His batting average is a career-low .246 and his poor walk rate (6.2%) limit his chances to get on base otherwise. You could do worse at the catcher position, but Suzuki has disappointed this season.

2011 Keeper Alert: Daric Barton

Most of the talent on the A’s resides on the pitching side of things. However, if you had to keep one hitter given the likely asking price, Barton would be the guy. With his great OBP, Barton could score 100 runs in a more talented lineup.

2011 Regression Alert: Jack Cust

It has been a strange season for Cust, who was non-tendered and designated for assignment by Oakland within the last year. Still, Cust has posted an .837 OPS as the A’s DH. He continues to walk a lot, but also strike out; however, he hasn’t hit home runs like years past (12 this year, after 26-33-25 in the previous three season). In a disturbing trend, his home run-to-flyball ratio has dropped in each of the past four seasons. In addition to that, his .387 BABIP is absurdly high despite his normal .271 batting average. With “old man skills” and an expected decline in BABIP, Cust shouldn’t be on your 2011 draft board in standard mixed leagues.

For more on the Daric Barton and the Oakland A’s lineup, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

 

MLB Season In Review: Oakland A’s Pitchers

By Tommy Rancel //

Biggest Surprise: Trevor Cahill

After going 10-13 with a 4.63 ERA in 32 starts as a rookie, Cahill has enjoyed an All-Star season in 2010. The 22-year-old is 17-8 with a 3.08 ERA in 27 starts. On the surface, Cahill seems like an emerging ace, but we’ll see if he can repeat his performance. More on that later…

Biggest Bust: Ben Sheets

The A’s made an unusual splash on the open market this season when they signed Ben Sheets to a one-year, $10 million deal. Sheets missed all of 2009, but when healthy is a legitimate ace. The gamble for Oakland was him staying healthy. Unfortunately for both sides, Sheets would last just 20 starts before needing major arm surgery. Not only did the surgery wipe out the rest of 2010, but most likely all of 2011 as well. Even before the surgery, the righty was just 4-9 with a 4.53 ERA.

2011 Keeper Alert: Gio Gonzalez

While Cahill has grabbed most of the attention, Gio Gonzalez might be the most talented young arm in the A’s rotation. At 14-9 with a 3.35 ERA, Gonzalez is finally living up to the hype of a top prospect. He has an above-average strikeout rate (7.57 K/9 IP), but walks are still an issue (4.04 BB/9 IP). He’s young, he’s talented, his numbers don’t suggest much of a fluke, and he’s left-handed; a keeper.

2011 Regression Alert: Trevor Cahill

As mentioned, Cahill has really good traditional stats, but a quick check of his peripherals show he has not been as impressive as those numbers suggest. His 5.31 K/9 IP is poor and his 2.89 BB/9 is acceptable, but only with a higher strikeout rate. In addition to the mediocre control rates, his .237 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is not likely to be repeated again (league average is typically around .300). Cahill is a fine young pitcher with a terrific groundball rate (55.7% ranks among the league leaders) and plenty of room to improve. But buyers beware next season – his ERA’s likely to rise, and 17 or more wins might be a reach.

For more on Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and the rest of the Oakland A’s pitching staff, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits.

MLB Season in Review: New York Mets Hitting

By Eno Sarris //

Biggest Surprise

Angel Pagan finally stayed healthy and showed what he was capable of for a full
season, racking up 11 homers, 69 RBI, 77 runs scored, 35 steals and a .289 average with a week left to play. At 29, he’s probably peaking. But another full season of playing time could easily produce similar numbers.

Biggest Bust

Pagan will most likely take over center field from one of the year’s biggest busts, Carlos Beltran. Knee surgery may have stolen much of his athleticism – he
hasn’t looked good this year after his late return. He is, at best, a
late (very late) sleeper in next year’s drafts. Then again, more was
expected of Jason Bay than Beltran, so he gets the title of biggest Mets bust – a much sought after trophy in some circles. Because of how long
isolated power numbers take to become reliable, though, Bay could be useful in
2011. A late-round pick could produce a rebound in homers in year two with the Mets.

2011 Keeper Alert

This team has the obvious keepers in mixed leagues – David Wright and Jose Reyes are near the top of their respective careers and positions and make fine keepers. The big question is what will happen with Ike Davis.
He needs to either add more power or make more contact – middling power
with a middling batting average doesn’t make for a fantasy superstar, especially not at first base.
Looking at his minor league numbers, the bet here is that he does add
the power, but doesn’t ever show a plus batting average because of his
strikeout rate and uppercut swing.

2011 Regression Warning

Funnily
enough, most of this team either hit at about their true talent levels
or is on their way up. Perhaps because of injury risk, Pagan is the
only one who is likely to regress, but he still makes a fine
deep-league keeper.

For more on Mets’ hitters, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: New York Mets Pitching

By Eno Sarris // 

Biggest Surprise

The biggest positive surprise in a season full of mostly negative revelations for the New York Metropolitans has been R.A. Dickey. Dickey, the subject of a recent – and fun – poster contest, has leveraged his multi-velocity knuckleball
to a 2.92 ERA and 11 wins so far. Dickey’s 5.36 K/9 IP rate raise red
flags about his future. But he’s also walking just over 2 batters per 9
IP this season, with a very high 55% groundball rate. If he’s truly harnessed his knuckleball, Dickey could become a trickier, more successful version of Joel Pineiro or Jake Westbrook. In other words, someone well worth rostering next season, even as he enters his late 30s.

MetsPGrab.jpg

Biggest Bust

On the other side of the coin would have to be Johan Santana‘s
season. Maybe we should have seen it coming – he’s now had
season-ending surgeries two years running, and his strikeout and walk
rates have been in a nose-dive since he left Minnesota. But the
declining lefty put up a below-average strikeout rate this year, and
has a recovery period that might push late into 2011.

2011 Keeper Alert

Francisco Rodriguez
makes for a paragraph all by himself. K-Rod reversed the decline in his
strikeout rates and showed the best control of his career. He generally
seemed to be a resurgent, elite closer for much of the year. But then
he punched his girlfriend’s father and now makes for a fascinating and
risky keeper selection going into 2011. It’s usually a bad idea to keep
a closer anyway because of the turnover at the position. See if you can
grab him cheap at the draft table instead.

Regression Warning

If Santana, Rodriguez, Dickey and even Dillon Gee have their risks, there are no obvious keepers on this pitching staff. Mike Pelfrey
had a playable season, but he also showed the worst groundball rate of
his career and is a bit of a risk for regression with a poor strikeout
rate. Jon Niese might actually make the best keeper on the staff, but isn’t worth the effort in shallow mixed leagues.

Avoid Mets pitchers when picking keepers for 2011. Instead,
see if you can snag a couple late in your draft next season (Niese?
Dickey?), especially given their favorable home park.

For more on the Mets, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools

MLB Season in Review: San Francisco Giants Pitchers

By Eriq Gardner //

Biggest Surprise

Jonathan Sanchez got some love in the preseason as a sleeper. There aren’t too many pitchers who can be counted upon to strike out at least a batter per inning. His upside to do more got him drafted in many fantasy leagues. But few would have imagined that Sanchez would sport a 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with two starts left in his season. Beware, though: Better luck has been the biggest reason for the improvement, with opponents hitting just .266 against him on balls in play (vs. .302 lifetime BABIP allowed, and league average around .300).

Biggest Bust

On the surface, it might seem a stretch to call Tim Lincecum a bust. After all, most pitchers would love to lead the league in strikeouts and have a 3.60 ERA. But some context is in order. Lincecum was the top drafted pitcher in fantasy leagues, as many were expecting the stud who posted back-to-back Cy Young Award seasons with at least 260 strikeouts, a sub-3 ERA, and a sub-1.20 WHIP. This season, Lincecum’s strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up from 2009 levels (though it’s right at his career average), and he’s nowhere close to award consideration.

2011 Keeper Alert

It’s not always wise to use keeper slots on closers, but Brian Wilson keeps getting better and better and is one of the league’s top relievers now. Not only for the saves and solid ERA/WHIP he contributes, but Wilson is also flirting with 100 strikeouts.

2011 Regression Alert

Madison Bumgarner was a top prospect coming up through the Giants’ farm system. In 16 starts this season, the youngster has posted a 3.06 ERA, including a scoreless outing last night. Everything may seem dandy, but Bumgarner is only striking out 6.71 batters per 9 innings and sports an xFIP more than a run higher than his actual ERA. On the plus side, his walk rate is a low 2.12 BB/9 IP this season. He’s a keeper, but don’t overbid if you’re drafting anew next season.

For more on Tim Lincecum and other San Francisco Giants pitchers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates Pitchers

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise: James McDonald

No secret to regular Bloomberg Sports blog readers, is a favorite ’round these parts. McDonald is worthy of the endearment thrown his way because of his stellar strikeout rate (8.32 K/9 IP). His playable 4.09 ERA is backed by a 3.19 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, a stat that runs along the same scale as ERA but strips out the impact of defense, park effects and other factors beyond a pitcher’s control). McDonald was acquired for a half season of a non-elite reliever, a technique Billy Beane described as “Building a Closer” in Moneyball.

Biggest Bust: Charlie Morton

One of the keys in the Nate McLouth deal, Morton’s 2010 season never opened the Pleasantville gates. Good build and strong velocity make Morton a pitcher scouts like, but his stuff ha yet to translate to strikeouts in the big leagues. After returning from the disabled list, the occasional big strikeout game disappeared too, making him virtually unwatchable. He’s better than the abysmal 8.11 ERA he’s posted this season, but there are many pitchers with a lot more potential, even in deep leagues.

2011 Keeper Alert: James McDonald

McDonald should get his first shot at a 200-inning season next year, which could translate into lots of strikeouts and solid ratios, even if the win total might falter playing for the rebuilding Pirates.

2011 Regression Alert: Paul Maholm

Maholm is a groundball-heavy pitcher who relies heavily on his infield defense taking fieldable balls and converting them into outs. Unfortunately, the infield defense did not do a worthwhile job this season, and thus, Maholm wound up with an ERA over 5. If the Pirates address their hole-filled defense this off-season, expect Maholm to bounce back and make for a nifty sleeper.

For more on James McDonald and better keeper prospects, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

MLB Season in Review: Pittsburgh Pirates Hitters

By R.J. Anderson //

Biggest Surprise

Neil Walker stuck around the Pirates’ system for years as their next big catching prospect. For a while, he followed in the footsteps of J.R. House – the last great Pirates’ catching prospect who busted in the minors. But a position switch and depth failure led to Walker getting a chance at the majors this season. He responded by hitting .296 with a dozen homers.

Biggest Bust

Garrett Jones hit 21 home runs in 358 plate appearances last season. He’s hit 20 in 602 this season. His batting average has dropped nearly 50 points. It seems unlikely Jones will enter next season with any kind of assured playing time. Akinori Iwamura fits the bill too, although he is well removed from the Pirates’ organization and resides with the Athletics now.

2011 Keeper Alert

Andrew McCutchen continues to solidify himself as one of the best center fielders in the National League. Posting a .286/.365/.471 slash line as a 22-year-old is hard to top, so he may have disappointed by hitting only .279/.356/.447 this season. But he did manage to cut down on his strikeouts and continues to run the bases and play the field well. Youngster Pedro Alvarez is also worthy of a keep in all but the shallowest leagues.

2011 Regression Warning

Walker is the name here because the rest of the Pirates’ hitters are either legitimately good or awful with little in between and little due to bad or good luck. An elevated .342 batting average on balls in play and more than three times as many strikeouts as walks don’t exactly scream “.296 hitter!”

For more on Pedro Alvarez and better keeper prospects, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

The Difference Between Carlos Zambrano and Josh Beckett

By R.J. Anderson //

Through the lenses of ERA, Josh Beckett and Carlos Zambrano could not be more dissimilar.

Zambrano sports a sparkling 3.56 ERA this year, with a mark under 2.00 since returning full-time in August. Over his first eight post-return starts, Big Z struck out 45 while allowing only a single home run.

Beckett, meanwhile, has about the same amount of innings with varying results. In August, his ERA was over 6.00 – making it the third of four completed months this season in which that was true – while September has brought with it an ERA below 3.00. For the season, though, he’s still lugging a sky-high 5.71 ERA. Based on those numbers, one might label Zambrano as a keeper and Beckett as someone to pass on. After all, Zambrano appears to be at the top of his game down the stretch.

Things are not always as they seem, though, and that is why looking beyond the surface is vital when tagging players to keep or not. Zambrano is striking out about 1.5 batters per walk; whereas Beckett is striking out nearly four batters per walk.

The difference between the two reveals itself as a matter of home runs allowed. Zambrano’s one blast per 54 innings average is in no way representative of what he will continue to offer, as his career average is one per 12 innings. Beckett has given up a homer every six innings versus his career average of a homer every nine. Because of that, these two will be a lot more alike next season than it appears now. Both are keeper-worthy.

For more on Zambrano, Beckett, and more studly pitchers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.

Emilio Bonifacio and Feeling Dirty

By Eno Sarris //

Sometimes, fantasy managers have to do things that make them feel dirty. They’ll pick up a lousy pitcher who has happened upon the closer role, or grab a streaky player in the middle of a nice stretch. It happens, and it can lead to championships.

That brings us to Emilio Bonifacio and his role on the Florida Marlins this year. With the underwhelming Wes Helms the other option at third base, the speedy infielder has received ample playing time at the hot corner, while also backing up the starting outfielders. He has produced for fantasy owners too, hitting .283 with nine stolen bases in just 166 plate appearances (with three of those steals coming in September). Managers in leagues of any kind could easily get a speed boost from him right now, and they’d be forgiven.

But they’d have to be forgiven nonetheless, because there is a litany of reasons why Bonifacio is not a good long-term option. The most obvious is the fact that he’s not in the team’s long-term plans at any position: last year’s rookie of the year Chris Coghlan is said to be slated for third base next year, and most of the rest of the positions around the diamond are filled with promising young players, like the recently profiled Logan Morrison.

The rest of the reasons might be less obvious but are more damning. For example, Bonifacio doesn’t walk enough for a man with his skill set – his 7.1% career walk rate is below average (usually the league average is around 9%). He also strikes out a tad too much (21.8% career strikeout rate, average is around 20%) for a guy with absolutely no power (.069 ISO, average is usually around .150). In fact, his career strikeout rate would be the worst among batting average qualifiers with ISOs below .100 this year. He’d also be the only player to combine a below-average walk rate with a strikeout rate over 20% and an ISO under .100. 

BonifacioGrab.jpg

None of this even mentions his unsustainable .352 batting average on balls in play – he is speedy, and might have a higher BABIP than most, but that’s not a number that’s likely to hold. Lastly, Bonifacio rates as a negative defender at all of the infield positions he’s played, which is yet another reason why he probably won’t figure prominently in the Marlins’ plans next year.

Sometimes you have to pick up flawed players on the way to a fantasy title. The important thing is to remember to not drop a player of consequence, and to not keep flawed players from year to year. Even in a deep keeper league, there’s no point in stashing Bonifacio, despite his 30 combined steals in the past two seasons. He is just the kind of player who can give you a few stolen bases in the season’s final weeks, then get discarded in the off-season.

For more on Emilio Bonifacio and better keeper prospects, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.