Top 5 MLB Disappointments So Far

Investing in a player means making an emotional commitment. A month into the season, some players aren’t performing up to snuff, and competitors are no doubt wondering who among April’s disappointments deserves the roster axe. Here’s five of the least-valuable, most universally-owned players who are currently killing their owners — and some insight into what’s ahead for each of them:

Ryan Dempster:

It’s easy to forget, but at one point in Dempster’s career, he was a mediocre closer for the Chicago Cubs. In 2006, Dempster registered 24 saves, but a 4.80 ERA. In 2007, Dempster notched 28 saves, but a 4.73 ERA. When Dempster was switched to starter the following year, expectations were little, and yet for three consecutive seasons, Dempster was one of the best, most consistent starters in the National League, posting a healthy number of wins, strong strikeout totals, and an excellent ERA. Entering the season, Dempster seemed to fly underneath the radar as 200+K pitcher with several strong seasons underneath his belt, and yet, Dempster may be headed for the dumpster in many fantasy leagues with an ERA currently standing at 9.58. He could be a good bet to turn things around. The strikeouts are still coming for Dempster, and while his walk rate has climbed somewhat, what’s really troubling him is a phenomenal amount of fly balls going for HRs – nearly a quarter when the MLB average is typically 10 percent. That will regress.

Francisco Liriano:

Liriano has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career, but also has flashed tantalizing potential that makes him the definition of a “toxic asset,” somebody who is hard to cut loose. No doubt many are tempted with a 9.13 ERA, and there’s hardly anything in Liriano’s peripherals at the moment that point to a rebound. His strikeout rate has dropped from a career average of 9.19 Ks/9 IP down to 6.85 and his walk rate has climbed all the way up to 6.85. Yes, he has walked just as many batters as he has struck out. Although it wouldn’t be surprising to see Liriano turn things around, the question will be how much rope he’ll get to do just that. Kevin Slowey is due back soon, and the Twins also have one of the most major league ready pitching prospects in the minors in Kyle Gibson. Sell low? Not the worst idea.

Carlos Pena:

Pena didn’t have a great season last season as he hit less than 30 HRs for the first time since 2006 and had an average below the Mendoza Line. Some optimism followed him this off-season nonetheless because regression was expected plus he was moving to the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. But Pena didn’t hit a single HR in April and his average has dropped even further from last year’s low standard. These days, Pena simply can’t hit left-handers, striking out 8 times in 13 at-bats against them. He’s quickly becoming a player who will be platooned. Our sense is that if he is dropped in fantasy leagues, even in very deep ones, he won’t be claimed.

Vernon Wells:

When Wells was traded this off-season, many pundits ridiculed the Angels for acquiring the big contract. Nevertheless, Wells was drafted in the 11th round in fantasy leagues and is still owned in nearly all leagues despite the woeful start that’s making even the most dire assessments of the Angels centerfielder seem kind.  One month is still too little a sample set to draw firm conclusions, but Wells is hitting a mere .157 at home compared to a more respectable .267 on the road. His strikeout rate is up; his walk rate is down; Wells is getting unlucky, but not enough to say with any confidence he’ll avoid being a bust in 2011. Surely, Wells has demonstrated enough contact skills throughout his career to put together a nice hot streak, so he shouldn’t be summarily cut from squads without further thought. But given the depth at the outfield position, his upside isn’t strong enough to justify excruciating patience either.

Derek Jeter

Is this the end of the line for the future Hall of Famer? Coming off a bad season, Jeter was still given the benefit of the doubt thanks to high scarcity at the shortstop position. In April, however, Jeter failed to record a single HR or SB, making him less valuable than, well, just about everybody. Still, there’s some reasons for optimism: He’s not striking out much these days, and is suffering a miserable batting average on balls in play. He’s sporting an atrociously high ground ball rate (73%) this year so far, so there’s no huge cause of optimism for the return of his power, and yet given Jeter’s strong batting eye, hard work, and good team environment, he still represents a lot of upside, especially now that his stock has fallen so low.

–Eriq Gardner

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Top 5 MLB Leaderboard Surprises: Fuld, Berkman, Masterson, Street, Gordon

Names like Roy Halladay, Jose Bautista, and Joey Votto were expected to be near the top of the leaderboards before the 2011 season started. Meanwhile, every year there are a handful of surprise players that capture the attention of Major League Baseball. With that in mind here are five players you would not expect to be at or near the top of the leaderboards in April:

Sam Fuld:

The fifth man in a five-man return for Matt Garza, Fuld has become a cult-hero in Tampa Bay. Due to the sudden retirement of Manny Ramirez and the oblique injury to Evan Longoria, Fuld was thrust into an everyday role with the Rays. He responded by hitting over .350 for most of the month and settled in as the team’s leadoff hitter. Fuld finished April on a 0-18 streak which dropped his average to .289; however, even as a .280 hitter, his ability to talk a walk should keep him on base quite a bit. After just two stolen base attempts as a member of the Chicago Cubs, Fuld’s speed has been unleashed in Tampa Bay. The American League leader in steals for the month of April (10), should continue to run wild and score runs with a good offense behind him.

Lance Berkman:

Berkman has been an offensive star for most of his career. That said, in 2010, he hit just 14 home runs in 122 games. A rejuvenated Big Puma has surfaced in St. Louis. In less than 100 at-bats in the month, Berkman belted eight home runs; more than half of his season total from last year. He is third in the National League in runs score and fourth in RBI. Of course, he won’t hit .393 all season, but the potential for 60-plus extra-base hits is a possibility.

Alex Gordon:

A former top prospect in all of baseball, Alex Gordon found himself back in the minor leagues last season. After a position switch to the outfield and more recently first base, Gordon is in the American League top 10 of several offensive categories including: average (.339) on-base percentage (.395), runs scored (20), RBI (19),  and doubles (12).  Gordon has been very fortunate on balls in play which is inflating his early season stats. Considering most of his value is tied to his batting average, he could be a sell high candidate.

Justin Masterson:

After going a combined 10-23 in 2009 and 2010, Masterson went 5-0 in the month of April. The groundball specialist will not get a ton of strikeouts (6.0 K/9 so far), but does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. His 2.18 ERA will certainly regress, but playing for a more talented Cleveland team makes him a candidate for double-digit wins. If his infielders continue to gobble up grounders, Masterson could be one of the better pitchers in the American League all season.

Huston Street:

When healthy, Street is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. In the past he has battled arm injuries – including 2010 when he missed the first  two and a half months with shoulder inflammation. Upon his return, Street saved 20 games in 44 appearances. Seemingly healthy in 2011, he has racked up 10 saves in the first month of the season. In terms of peripheral numbers, Street’s strikeout and walk rate so far are within ticks of his career numbers. His velocity is down a bit, but he proving his durability with 15 appearances and 16.1 innings in the first month. A healthy Street plus a good Colorado team could mean 40-plus saves with a sub 3.00 ERA.

–Tommy Rancel

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The Return of Joel Pineiro

By R.J. Anderson //

Few players in recent memory have witnessed the ups and downs of Joel Pineiro. Forever labeled as a guy with better stuff than results during his Seattle days, Pineiro eventually signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. Months later, the Red Sox dumped him to the Cardinals and the rest has been history. Under Dave Duncan’s tutelage, Pineiro saw a dramatic increase in his groundball rate—from around 45-to-50 percent to over 60 percent in 2009. The Angels, fretting not of a one-year wonder, signed Pineiro to a two-year deal and the short righty has provided them with good service when healthy.

After missing some time in 2010 with an oblique injury, Pineiro started the 2011 season n the mend too with shoulder tightness. Over the weekend, Pineiro returned—much to the relief of the Angels, who had Matt Palmer in the rotation in his place—and looked a lot like his typical self. Facing a Rays lineup that is generally tough on righties, Pineiro went seven, allowing one run (on a Matt Joyce home run), walking one (intentionally), and fanning three. The Rays put 19 balls into play and 10 of them were of the groundball variety.

Of course, Pineiro isn’t going to provide seven innings of one-run ball every time out, but over the last three seasons he has an aggregate earned run average of 4.07, a WHIP of 1.26, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.9. Add in Pineiro’s average workload (172 innings) and that he tends to win double-digit games, and plucking him as an emergency starter at this point in the season seems like a decent get—particularly in deeper leagues or those of the AL-only variety.

The one caveat about Pineiro is his health. Shoulder tightness is nothing to play around with, but there within itself lies the beauty of grabbing Pineiro: the transaction cost is low enough to cut bait without worry.

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Bloomberg Sports Exclusive: Why is Hanley Ramirez Struggling and Lance Berkman Shining

What happened to Hanley Ramirez?

Why is a .310 hitter batting just .197 on the season without a home run?

–   What’s the big difference between last year and this year? 46 of the 327 pitches that have been thrown his way are right over the middle of the plate waist high and he is batting just .273 with a .364 slugging percentage thanks to just one extra base hit (a double on a fastball against John Lannon) in 12 at bats.  In comparison, last season Ramirez faced 323 pitches right over the middle of the plate and he batted .326 with a .612 slugging percentage. 

–   Conclusion– He is not punishing the pitches he should hit. 

–   As far as the outpitches, how’s Hanley handling those? Ramirez has historically struggled against off-speed pitches.  Last season, he hit just .245 against non fastballs.  However, they only threw those pitches 39% of the time.  This year, they have thrown Ramirez off-speed pitches 40% of the time, but there are two major issues, number one, he’s not hitting the fastball.  The very pitch he hit .361 against in 2009, and .336 in 2010, Ramirez is hitting just .262 in 42 at bats. 

–   Is there anything different about the fastballs thrown to him this season?  The answer is yes, they are coming in at 91.2 MPH, compared to 90.5 MPH in 2009 and 90.7 in 2010. 

–   And then there is the change-up, a pitch Ramirez has yet to get a hit again in 10 at bats. 

–   Conclusion– He is struggling more than ever against the off-speed pitches, but he is also not hitting the pitches that we’d expect him to hit, considering he is just 27-years old and has not suffered an injury, Ramirez should bounce back.

What’s the difference for Lance Berkman?

–   Lance Berkman is not just good, he has been perhaps the best hitter in all of baseball with a .410 average, 8 homers, 22 runs, and 22 RBI.  Why is it such a surprise for the perennial All-Star, well first of all he is 35 years and second, he is coming off his worst season, when he hit just .248. 

–   Is it a move to St. Louis?  No, Berkman has all eight home runs on the road this season in 11 games, though at home he is batting .432. 

–   So how can you get him out?  Throw the ball low, as in below the strike zone, he has yet to get a hit in 5 at bats against those pitches.  And paint the corners.  When the ball is thrown over the heart of the plate, Berkman boasts a .421 average and .895 slugging percentage. 

–   When he’s batting from the left side, throw the ball inside, he boasts just a .273 average on inside pitches.  When he’s batting from the road side, he has yet to get a hit above his waist.

–   Conclusion– Berkman has been incredible, and you can’t really pitch around him with Pujols and Holliday before him and Colby Rasmus after him.  The pitchers have to paint the corners, otherwise, just wait for the veteran to cool down.

What Jordan Walden, Closer, Can Tell Us

by Eno Sarris //

There’s a new closer in the greater Los Angeles / Anaheim area. Jordan Walden is young (23) and has a nice fastball (96 MPH+), and took over the role last night. What worked with him might tell us a little something about where to look for future closers.

What was wrong in front of Jordan Walden was Fernando Rodney. The veteran pitcher had never once put in a walk rate better than league average. Lately, he’d been inducing ground balls, but that caused his strikeout rate to fall even further. Mostly, the 33-year-old is in a decline off of a questionable peak.

So, first our future closer needs opportunity. Perhaps one of the worst closers in the league is Brandon Lyon – who has a bad strikeout rate (5.86 K/9 career) and supplements it with a flyball tendency in a home-run happy ball park (8.4% home runs above average park).  Ryan Franklin doesn’t really have a strikeout rate (5 K/9 career) or an elite groundball rate (around 44% the last three years, 40% is average). Recently, Francisco Cordero‘s strikeout rate has been falling and his walk rate has been rising.

Look behind these three guys and you might find a young, exciting pitcher. In Houston, Wilton Lopez doesn’t have the fastball (92+ MPH career), but he induces groundballs (56.1% career) and avoids the walk (1.32 BB/9 career). The Cardinals have Jason Motte, meaning they have a reliever with gas (95.9 MPH career on the fastball) that has fewer than 150 innings pitched in the major leagues. You’ve probably heard Aroldis Chapman.

In each of these cases, a weak veteran pitcher is in front of a young player with intriguing abilities. In each of these cases, the team would love to have a cost-controlled closer in their pen. In each of these cases, the young player should be on your team if you are looking for saves and need to get ahead of the pack.

So that the next Jordan Walden doesn’t end up already on some other team’s roster.

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(Vid) Behind the Numbers: All Things New York Baseball

Behind the Numbers Season: All Things New York Baseball

Don’t use Bloomberg Sports Front Office 11 yet? Buy a copy and use the code Sienna for a discount.

Hosts: Robert Shaw and Wayne Parillo

Watch the entire episode, or use the links below to jump to the exact point you want:

The Yankees Episode
Guest: Tom Trudeau
Bloomberg Sports baseball analyst and former ESPN worker. Follow him at @Tom_Trudeau

The Mets Episode
Guest: Eno Sarris
Writer for fangraphs.com, Amazin’ Avenue, and Bloomberg Sports. Follow him at @EnoSarris

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The House that Jeter Built (Video)

This off-season Hank Steinbrenner seemed to go after his franchise star when he said that last season the Yankees were too busy building mansions, that they did not focus enough to be champions.  Well good news for Yankees management and fantasy managers alike, is the fact that the Captain’s mansion has been built.

Derek Jeter’s mansion measures at greater than 31,000 square feet with a half dozen car garage.  The house was built for $7.7 million, which would likely buy only a four bedroom apartment in Manhattan.  

If, indeed, Jeter was consumed by the development of his house last season, the good news is that the construction has been completed (video below).

 

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Targeting Closers Of Tomorrow

By Tommy Rancel //

The production from relief pitchers is volatile in nature. In addition to the uncertainty of the position, there are also health concerns in some bullpens. Just this spring we’ve seen a few closers (Brad Lidge and Brian Wilson) go down with injury. With all things considered: injury, ineffectiveness, fatigue, it is wise to keep one eye on the future when building a bullpen.  That said, here are a few names to keep tabs on as we enter the 2011 season.

Jake McGee:

Among the top arms in the Rays’ system, McGee will complete the transformation from starter to reliever that began late last season. As a left-handed pitcher who can hit the high 90’s with his fastball, you can literally see the appeal of McGee as a late-inning option. While he struggled developing his secondary pitches as a starter, he can now focus on his fastball and slider as a reliever.

McGee pitched out of the Rays’ pen just eight times last season, but showed the strikeout stuff you want to see from a shutdown reliever. Bloomberg Sports’ projects him for 60 innings this season with nearly a strikeout per inning. If McGee’s stuff translates as expected, that number could be even higher. Tampa Bay will start the season with a closer-by-committee, although veterans Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta are likely to get the early ninth inning opportunities. Meanwhile, if McGee can get batters out on both sides of the plate, he could find himself as Joe Maddon’s high-leverage relief ace of choice.

Jordan Walden:

Another former starter, Walden pitched exclusively in relief during the 2010 season. Surprisingly, his strikeout rate actually dipped as a reliever in the minors.  Upon his late-season promotion to the majors, his K-rate spiked. In 15.1 innings with the big league club, Walden punched out 23 batters. That translates to a K/9 of 13/5. Like most young pitchers, Walden struggles with control and command. That said, his fastball can touch the triple digits and his slider is a decent second option. The interesting thing to watch is his strikeout rate going forward. If he is getting swings and misses in bunches, the walks will become more tolerable.

Fernando Rodney will begin the season as the Angels’ closer; however after rumored interest in several high-profiled relievers this winter, Los Angeles does not seemed to be married to Rodney in the ninth. If Rodney struggles, set-up man Kevin Jepsen could get a look, but Walden has the goods to be the guy at some point this year.

Kenley Jansen:

Like the others named above, Jansen is also transitioning to the bullpen. However, he is a converted catcher and not starting pitcher. He spent the first four seasons of his professional career as a catcher in the Dodgers’ system and was behind the plate for the Netherlands during 2009 World Baseball Classic. Jansen began the transation to the mound during the 2009 season. With a high-90’s fastball and a really good slider, it did not take him long to shoot up through the system. In fact, he bypassed the Triple-A level altogether.

He made his big league debut in late June and was a key piece in the bullpen going forward. In 27 innings of work he allowed just two earned runs (0.67) and racked up a ridiculous 41 strikeouts. The K/9 near 14.0 and BB/9 near 5.0 show the same wild, yet effective, approach exhibited by Carlos Marmol with the Cubs.

Unlike the Rays and Angels, the Dodgers have a very good closer in Jonathan Broxton. On the other hand, Broxton fell out of favor with the club last season and briefly lost his job as closer. Los Angeles also has another very good arm in Hong-Chih Kuo to close should Broxton falter. Jansen faces more obstacles than Walden or McGee, but has similar potential to become a true relief ace with time.

Even if McGee, Walden, and Jansen don’t rack up double-digit saves, the potential for high strikeouts make them attractive options in deep leagues and those that count holds.

Kila Ka’aihue: Finally?

By Eriq Gardner //

Kila Ka’aihue is zooming up the charts as a potential breakout player for the 2011 season. In 46 spring training at-bats, the Royals first-baseman has hit .413/.449/.804 with 5 HRs and 2 SBs. Not only has Ka’aihue finally won a full-time job at the age of 26, but Royals manager Ned Yost has praised his defensive progress too, telling reporters that Ka’aihue should see more time at first-base than Billy Butler this season.
For the past few years, Ka’aihue has generated a lot of conversation in the scouting community.
On one hand, Ka’aihue has demonstrated the rare combination of elite power and excellent plate discipline. In the last three seasons in the minors, Ka’aihue has slugged a home run once every 19 at-bats and walked 206 times compared to just 152 strikeouts in 842 at-bats. 
These stats are very noteworthy. When his time at AA and AAA gets translated into a full-season 2011 MLB projection, the results raise eyebrows. Most services project 20 HRs in under 500 at-bats, presumably giving him a shot at 30 HRs with a healthy on-base percentage if he plays a full season in the bigs.
Will that happen?
Ka’aihue has his doubters, too.
Some point to the fact that he achieved those gaudy statistics in the minors at a relatively advanced age. Others have labeled him a “Quad-A Player,” too good for the minors and maybe not good enough for the majors, on the belief that the much-better breaking stuff of MLB pitchers will eventually bedevil Ka’aihue. Finally, a few point to results from Ka’aihue’s debut at the major-league level last season, which at first glance, don’t seem very promising.
We’re on the sunny side here.
Ka’aihue may have achieved enormous things in the minors at the age of 25, which is a little bit old, but still youthful enough it shouldn’t be dismissed. Other players have succeeded after proving themselves in the minors at advanced ages. Nelson Cruz, for one, didn’t hit it big in the majors until age 28. Plus, Ka’aihue was knocking them out of the park and showing his great plate discipline all the way back in 2004-05 at Single-A when he was just 19 years old. He’s been overdue for a call-up for some time now, so it can hardly be counted against him that he hasn’t gotten a real shot.
Some might suggest that 2010 was his opportunity to prove himself. Last year, he suffered a .217 AVG in 180 at-bats.
Look closer, however, and last season gives more reason for hope than otherwise. He struggled badly in his first 84 at-bats in August, as do most call-ups, but then had a pretty outstanding September when nobody was looking. In 84 September at-bats, Ka’aihue hit .274 with 6 HRs. His OPS was ninth among first basemen in baseball that month.
Ka’aihue still has plenty to prove, especially when pitchers learn his tendencies and shy away from giving him fast-balls down the plate. But all evidence so far suggests he’s not a free swinger. He’ll take the walk if necessary and make pitchers put them in the strike zone.
Ka’aihue finally gets his chance to shine now, worrying those who imagine the Hawaiian-born slugger will feel some pressure to perform quickly, after being forced to bide his time so long, especially with one of the game’s best prospects, Eric Hosmer, waiting in the wings. The fact that Ka’aihue plays on the Kansas City Royals, however, might turn out to be advantageous. The team won’t contend for the division this season and have no reason to start Hosmer’s arbitration eligibility clock early. Ka’aihue knows better than anybody the organization’s commitment to “patience.” 
He could very easily fulfill the potential of his minor league career and hot spring training. Ka’aihue has waited for this opportunity; it doesn’t mean fantasy competitors should be as unhurried when seeing him available in a league.

The Top 10 Hitting Prospects

By R.J. Anderson //

Last week, I looked at the Top 10 Pitching Prospects according to Front Office. This week, let’s focus on the Top 10 Hitting Prospects.

1. J.P. Arencibia
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Domonic Brown
4. Desmond Jennings
5. Yonder Alonso
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Jesus Montero
8. Wil Myers
9. Wilin Rosario
10. Gary Sanchez

Freeman is the healthiest and most assured of a starting gig out of the rest of the options, as he figures to be the Braves’ Opening Day starter at first base. Brown suffered a broken hamate bone earlier in the spring and will miss a few weeks into the regular season. Brown was in line to become at least a part time player in the Phillies’ outfield, so look for him to be an intriguing in-season addition.

A similar thing can be written for Jennings, although his situation depends on his own health as well as his major league counterparts (namely Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon). An injury to an outfielder or infielder could leave Jennings on his way up thanks to the Rays’ flexibility with players like Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez. Alonso has been described as pure trade bait despite working out in the outfield during the exhibition season. The Reds have a pretty good first baseman already who isn’t going anywhere else anytime soon, leaving Alonso’s value as minimal.

The list is loaded with backstops. Arencibia, Mesoraco, Montero, Myers, Rosario, and Sanchez all don the tools of ignorance. Of those, only Arencibia and Montero are likely to see time in the big leagues early on, although Mesoraco could very well reach the show by season’s end. Sanchez is probably the only one that you should remove from your draft boards, as he only turned 18 in December and isn’t a viable option outside of deep keeper leagues.

As is the case with all prospects, don’t build your team expecting them to live up to your wildest dreams. Instead, use them in complementary roles until they’ve proven otherwise. After all, not every season brings a Jason Heyward to the table.