Not Shooting (Kyle) Blanks

by Eno Sarris // 

Kyle Blanks is a big man. Predictable headlines aside, this large human being (6′ 6″, 270 pounds at least) might be able to power your fantasy team to a late season push. Let’s take a look at his strengths (!) and weaknesses.

His obvious strength is his strength. The hoss bent-armed an inside fastball from Matt Cain into the seats Tuesday night, and he’ll break some distance records when he gets ahold of a pitch with his arms extended. The Big Nasty has a .260 ISO (isolated slugging percentage, or SLG-batting average) this year, which lines up very well with his .264 rookie ISO. Sure, last year, he didn’t show power like that, but he was hurt. Now on the correct side of Tommy John surgery, and coming off a minor league season in which he ISO’ed over .360, he looks to have his power stroke back. And the league ISO right now is .141, so a .260 number is impressive. It would be fourth in the league since 2008 among qualified batters.

How much should fantasy owners worry about his home park, though? Not as much as you might expect. As a right-handed batter, PetCo only suppresses his home run power by 5%. That’s it. Sure, he might lose some doubles (right-handed double power is suppressed by 28%), but Blanks has legit home-run power and will be able to muscle balls out of his home park.

Losing those doubles really only speaks to his major weakness anyway. As a guy who hits half his balls in the air (and should, given his power), Blanks is already at a batting average disadvantage. Add in the fact that he is striking out in 29.6% of his at-bats, and he’s virtually assured of having a mediocre batting average. Since 2008, only four batters have qualified for the batting title while also striking out more than 27% of the time: Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Mark Reynolds and Carlos Pena. The best batting average of that crew is Cust’s .240. So, yeah, he’s not likely to have a nice batting average.

Could he improve his strikeout rate? His minor league K rates oscillated between about 20% and 25%, so maybe. But only maybe. His 15% swinging strike rate, which has held steady throughout his 400 major league plate appearances. That would be the third-worst swinging strike rate in baseball since 2008 among qualified batters. The only silver lining is that he’d be in a virtual tie with Ryan Howard, who has struck out about 26% of the time in the same time frame. Howard had a .265 batting average over the past three years.

A .260 batting average will play if he has 30+ homer power, that much we’ve learned from Mike Stanton. With offense (and, in particular, power) down around the league, Kyle Blanks towers above the fray both literally and figuratively. If power, and power alone, is your main goal. it’s time to go get some Blanks for your gun. And by gun, we mean fantasy team, of course.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.

The Aaron Hill/Kelly Johnson Swap

By Tommy Rancel//

The Arizona Diamondbacks decided to shake up the interior of their team on Tuesday when they acquired a pair of middle infielders – Aaron Hill and John McDonald – from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for their own starting second baseman Kelly Johnson. In McDonald, the Diamondbacks pick up a very good defender along the middle infield and depth at shortstop behind in Stephen Drew’s absence. He provides little in terms of offense and is not considered a real play in any league format.

Hill and Johnson, on the other hand, have spent the last few seasons as key performers at the keystone position.

Continue reading →

Mets Hurler Jason Isringhausen’s Story of Redemption

 

Follow us on Twitter: @BloombergSports @RobShawSports @MicheleSteele

 

The Mets free fall has begun, a few months later than most baseball analysts expected, but the team is starting to fall on hard times now that they have traded All-Star Carlos Beltran and closer Francisco Rodriguez.  The team has also lost their two best hitters this season to injuries in Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy.  While Reyes is expected to return at the end of the month there is no guarantee it will stop the bleeding.  The team has lost six of its last seven and the Mets now sit four games under .500.

 

One piece of good news that has recently unfolded was a personal milestone from a very unlikely Met.  Jason Isringhausen’s career started with the Mets in a cloud of hope as a part of Generation K with Bill Pulsipher and Paul Wilson. 

 

Izzy went 9-2 in his first season with the Mets with a stellar 2.81 ERA.  He was immediately compared to Dwight Gooden and Tom Seaver, the two best home grown Mets aces in franchise history.  Of course, the bottom then fell out as injuries took their toll on all three members of Generation K.  Izzy went 9-19 in his next three seasons with the Mets before getting dealt to the Oakland A’s for Billy Taylor.

 

Izzy was moved to the bullpen where he went on to dominate for the next eight seasons.  He won a World Series, picked up a career-high 47 saves in 2004, and dismissed his legacy of being a bust.  However, that wasn’t enough for the Mets 44th round pick in the 1991 draft.  He had more to prove.

 

Izzy returned to the Mets this off-season with absolutely no idea whether he would ever even make the roster.  “I had no idea… nobody knew what was going to happen,” said Isringhausen after the recent home stand.  “I just try to go about my business the right way and help the team anyway I can and try to get outs when they call on me.”  Izzy has certainly handled his job the right way.  He has offered some wisdom for the younger pitchers and offered some brilliant work out of the bullpen while doing so.  However, the big opportunity did not come until days after the All-Star break when the Mets announced they had dealt their star closer K-Rod to the Brewers.

 

Since that transaction, Izzy has returned to his old role of closer.  In 12 appearances, Izzy has picked up two wins and seven saves.  The seventh save, which took place on August 15th was the 300th of his career.  It’s been an incredible ride for the soon-to-be 38-year-old hurler.  He returned to where he failed and has been a pleasant surprise. 

 

Unfortunately for Isringhausen, reality will now set in.  With the Mets out of contention for a spot in the post-season, the team is looking towards the future and they will turn to flamethrower Bobby Parnell for ninth inning duties.  Izzy, a true professional, has been one of Parnell’s biggest supporters even during his recent struggles.  “It won’t be his last rough spot either… he’s got the stuff to do it… You can take care of the little things and the rest kind of falls in place.”

 

The young bust is now a wily veteran who has redeemed himself in the eyes of Mets fans.  Whether he gets another save or not for the rest of his career, Isringhausen has accomplished what he set out to do.  He went about his business the right way and got outs when needed.  However, his lasting contribution may be the professionalism that he brought to the clubhouse and the lessons that he provided to a new a new generation of Mets hurlers.  Izzy did alright as a Mets hurler.

 

Four For Grabbing

By R.J. Anderson //

The season might be wrapping up, but there are still a few players available in a good chunk of leagues that could help push you over the top. Let’s take a look at four players who could be used to form an entirely new infield. They are ranked by their availability in ESPN leagues in ascending order:

1. Jose Altuve

2. Yuniesky Betancourt

3. Mike Carp

4. David Freese

Altuve is the Astros diminutive second baseman. The story on him throughout the minors was that he can hit, and that remains the case after more than 100 major league plate appearances. There are some reasons for concern, as Altuve’s value is entirely batting average driven and it’s far too early to say whether he can maintain an average in the .330s. If not and his peripheral statistic remain the same, then his value dips quite a bit. Altuve is owned in just 5.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

As bad as Betancourt was in the first half (.237/.255/.342), he’s been very good since the All-Star break (.369/.385/.553). Betancourt has always shown traces of power, and while his on-base percentage is being buoyed by his average, it’s a matter of positional scarcity. Just riding the tail end of the heat wave can provide good value, particularly if you do not own Troy Tulowitzki or another top shortstop. Betancourt is available in more than 50 percent of ESPN leagues.

Justin Smoak’s injuries have opened the door to Carp, who is owned in 52 percent of ESPN leagues. His seasonal line of .320/.379/.492 is strong, and he has been particularly effective over the last two weeks. Because Carp is a lefty, he will not be as affected by Safeco’s offensive constriction as his right-handed batting teammates. Carp isn’t likely to continue to hit like he is one of the league’s best first basemen, but if you can catch some lightning in the bottle from a utility slot, he could provide useful, as Rob covered earlier in the week.

Freese completes the infield and is owned in nearly 75 percent of leagues. He is hitting .319/.369/.458 on the season, and four of his seven home runs have come in the last four weeks. Freese’s power has picked up in the second half, and would be owned more widely if he hadn’t missed almost all of May and June.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.

Derek Holland, Jeff Niemann and Spot Starting

by Eno Sarris //  

The tale of two starters owned in about half of all fantasy leagues ends with a discussion on strategy. Derek Holland and Jeff Niemann may not be very similar in terms of their physical stature or the quality of their stuff, but the two pitchers have similar statistical profiles. Putting them in a position to succeed is very important to getting the best results from these two young starters.

Neither Holland nor Niemann have great swing-and-miss stuff right now. The average swinging strike rate in the major leagues is 8.6% this year, and Holland (7.2%) and Niemann (8.1%) fall short of that number. Their strikeout rates (6.84 K/9 and 7.14 K/9 respectively) reflect this reality. In the future, Holland has more upside, perhaps, as his 94 MPH fastball is three ticks faster than Niemann’s, and his four-pitch mix has gotten better whiffs in the past. But, right now, both of these guys lack the strikeout punch of an elite pitcher.

None of the rest of their rates are elite either. Holland has average control (3.07 BB/9, 3.11 BB/9 is average), gets groundballs at a slightly above-average rate (47.3% GBs, 44% is average), and has had slightly below-average luck (.310 BABIP, 70.3% LOB, averages are .292 and 72.4% this year). For the most part, Niemann’s story is the same. He has an average ground-ball rate (44.1%), and slightly above-average luck (.277 BABIP, 76.7% LOB). Right now, he’s showing an elite walk rate (2.11 BB/9), but he’s been limited to 98 1/3 innings this year and his career rate is much closer to average (2.90 BB/9).

If their luck stats regress towards the mean like they should, both of these pitchers are mid-to-high threes ERA pitchers. Even if one is 6′ 9″ and is nicknamed the Big Nyquil because of his slow pace and sleepy stuff, and the other is 6′ 2″ and has a suprising 94 MPH fastball coming from his left hand, there are similarities here.

By all accounts, if a 3.6+ ERA is above-average in real-life baseball, it is average in your regular mixed fantasy league. So you have two pitchers that have the upside to give you average production and the downside to actually hurt your ERA. How do you best use two dudes like this?

By putting them on your bench and using them in good matchups.

Holland has been a better pitcher on the road, showing better control and better results. Avoid Arlington, where he has a 5.32 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP, and he’s suddenly a much better pitcher. Niemann doesn’t have much of a home/road split, but he does face juggernaut offenses in Boston, Toronto and New York. Avoiding those teams would be the safe way to go. You mitigate your risk, and you improve the downside portion of the ledger.

If you have the flexibility to use a starter half of the time, you’ll get half of an above-average starter out of each of these two dudes by picking your starts well. Many fantasy teams make the mistake of holding too many bench position players. These players only contribute one or two starts a week to your team. Instead, your bench should be made up of pitchers like Holland and Niemann: pitchers that can easily be put in a position to succeed.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.

Flowers & Iantetta As Pierzynski Replacements

By Tommy Rancel //

After a July-injury to backup catcher, Ramon Castro,the Chicago White Sox called up former prospect Tyler Flowers to play behind A.J Pierzynski. Just a few weeks later, Flowers is now the team’s primary backstop following news of Pierzynski’s broken wrist on Tuesday. The White Sox will likely add a veteran catcher to the mix, but Flowers could – and should – get the lion’s share of playing time down the stretch.

After hitting .270 last season, Pierzynski was hitting .296 with 30 extra-base hits at the time of his injury. With his bat out of the lineup, the ChiSox will rely on their 25-year-old catcher to pick up the lost production. Flowers may not hit for the same high average; however, he does have solid pop (15 minor-league home runs this season and one major league) and will take a walk, something Pierzynski did not do much of (5% walk rate). Flowers walked in more than 14% of his plate appearances at Triple-A this season. He already has three walks in major-league eight games. Because of this, his on-base percentage should not suffer due to the expected struggles in average.

As mentioned, the addition of a veteran is likely; however, the White Sox are better off to give Flowers a six-week audition heading into 2012. Because of the position scarcity and the likelihood for playing time, he could be a nice addition for AL-Only owners down the stretch. On top of the solid OBP, his right-handed power is likely to play up in U.S. Cellular Field, a ballpark that favors right-handed power hitters. Depending on how he handles his latest tour of major-league duty, Flowers could be a catching sleeper for next season as well.

In mixed-leagues, Flowers is an option, but more so in deeper 14-plus team formats. In shallower leagues, Chris Ianetta may be a more attractive option. Ianetta in many ways is a mirror image of Flowers. Both right-handers post above-average walk rates, solid power, and a hole in the bat in terms to contact. The one thing that puts Ianetta ahead is he has produced at the major-league level. Although he is hitting just .237 this season, his OBP is a robust .382 – fueled by an 18% walk rate. He has also popped 12 home runs in 90 games. Ianetta is available in more than half of standard leagues, so if you’re looking to fill Pierzynski’s void or looking to upgrade, check for Ianetta.

For more catcher options, check out Bloomberg Sports.com

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Pickups: Nova, Constanza, Carp, Betancourt, and Encarnacion

 

Follow us on Twitter: @BloombergSports @RobShawSports @MicheleSteele

 

Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees

If you’re wondering how a 24-year-old hurler on the Yankees can have an 11-4 record and 3.85 ERA and still find himself on the waiver wire, I have your answer.  Just check out the 1.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Nova has had some things go his way this season such as solid run support and an uncanny ability to escape jams.  Regardless, Nova has won seven straight decisions and has allowed as many as four runs just twice in his last eight starts.  As long as you can deal without the K’s and a pretty high WHIP, Nova is not a bad pickup. 

Jose Constanza, OF, Braves

If you’re curious why the Braves are suddenly sitting mega prospect and their everyday right-fielder Jason Heyward, there are two reasons.  The first is that Heyward is struggling with just a .219 average and 30 RBI.  The other reason is that the little-known and late-blooming Jose Constanza is hitting .382 with 13 runs scored.  The 27-year-old is a speedster with little to no power.  He swiped 23 bags with a .312 average before the call to the Majors this season.  Constanza is nothing more than a hot bat who is stealing at bats away from the future of the franchise.  Then again, we may have said the same thing about Jeff Francouer back in the day.

Mike Carp, 1B, Mariners

While top prospect Justin Smoak has dealt with his ups and downs and most recently a broken nose, Mike Carp has shined bright with a .320 average, four home runs, and 24 RBI in 38 games.  Carp was acquired by the Mariners for closer JJ Putz a few years back from the Mets.  He blasted 29 home runs at Triple-A last season, but hit just .257.  This year, he blasted 21 home runs in 66 games while hitting .343.  In other words, Carp has earned a serious look in the Big Leagues, and at 25-years old, he will get his chance for the remainder of the season.  Feel free to take a look in fantasy leagues, though as is the case for any hitter that plays half of his games in Safeco, the odds are against him. 

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Blue Jays

Try explaining this, in his first 70 games, Edwin Encarnacion reached base at a rate of 28%.  Since the All-Star break, Encarnacion has reached base 47% of the time.  What gives? Well, we always knew that the Blue Jays slugger was one of the streakiest hitters in baseball.  He also has a knack for big second halves.  The 28-year-old corner infielder is also playing for his career now that mega prospect Brett Lawrie has been called up.  The good news is that he remains young enough for the Blue Jays to provide him with regular at bats.  So Encarnacion will have his opportunity to win over a spot for next season’s club.  As far as potential, Encarnacion has plenty of it.  He blasted 26 home runs back in 2008 and 21 last season in just 332 at bats. 

Rafael Betancourt, RP, Rockies

Finally some noise from the closer report, the 36-year-old Rafael Betancourt will take over for the recently injury Huston Street.  The last time that Betancourt allowed an earned run was July 6th, just before the All-Star break.  Betancourt has nailed down one save over the last week and his 58:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the season ranks amongst the best in baseball.  Street will likely return at the end of the month, but if he’s out longer than that and the Rockies continue to struggle, you have to think to Rex Brothers, who at 24-years old is supposed to be the closer of the future, will get some save opportunities.

Mets Hang In There Thanks to Duda and Hope

 

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It seems like the baseball world is just waiting for the Mets to finally fly its white flag.  It is clear that at 19 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and more than 10 games behind the Braves for the Wild Card, there is no real shot at making the postseason.  Nonetheless, the Mets have played extremely well on the road, keeping them within .500 through 117 games into the season. 

 

The tide may have finally turned in recent days.  The Mets fell twice to the last-place Padres at home and will now have to take on the first place Diamondbacks on the road this weekend. 

 

It’s also the way that the Mets have fallen that hurts the most.  On Wednesday, a well-pitched game by Jon Niese was wasted thanks in large part to shoddy defensive by 21-year-old shortstop Ruben Tejada.  The only reason Tejada was even in the field was the most recent hamstring injury to star shortstop Jose Reyes. 

 

One positive that Mets fans can focus on is the continued success of rookie Lucas Duda.  The 6’4, 254 lbs. slugger drove in four RBI in the four-game series with seven hits.  Though his season statistics are solid with three home runs, three triples, 12 doubles, and a .279 average through 62 games, his teammate Justin Turner tells us that we have not seen anything yet.  “When he gets into a hot streak, the ball just sails over the fence in bunches,” said Turner, who played with Duda in the Minor Leagues. 

 

Despite the fun name and slugger’s role, Duda is soft-spoken and modest, though his confidence shines through, “It will come.” he says.  “The more comfortable I get the better I’ll perform.”  Duda has good reason to be confident.  He is hitting .348 since the All-Star break with three home runs and a .427 OBP. 

 

While Duda is playing first base in place of the injured Ike Davis, his future home for the Mets will likely be in the outfield.  After all, the Mets have no shortage of first basemen with both Davis and Daniel Murphy both posting big numbers before each landed on the DL with season-ending injuries.

 

As usual, it is anything but easy to be a Mets fan.  However, there is some good news as the season crawls to an end.  Both Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda look like keepers, though finding a position for each will be a challenge.  Jose Reyes seems happy to be with the Mets and could end up extending this off-season in a long-term deal.  Jason Bay has progressed a bit from his early struggles, and even Justin Turner may be a short-term fix at second base. 

 

The Mets still have plenty of issues to sort out.  They could use another big arm in the rotation even while assuming Johan Santana returns as a front of the rotation hurler.  Bobby Parnell does not look like a closer.  Then there is the gaping hole in centerfield that Angel Pagan has not been able to fill this season. 

 

For those who prefer the glass half full, consider that the Mets have lost their first baseman and their backup first baseman to injuries.  David Wright and Jose Reyes have both spent weeks on the disabled list.  Johan Santana has not thrown a single pitch for the Mets this season.  Jason Bay and Angel Pagan are having down seasons.  The team traded away its best all-around hitter and its ace closer, and yet they sit just one game under .500.  In other words, for Mets fans there is just enough positive to still believe.

Philadelphia Phillies Report with Jimmy Rollins and Dominic Brown

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Phillies Report:

Phillies Pitching

The Phillies are running away with the best record in baseball with a comfortable 8.5 game lead, and the lone reason for their success has been pitching.  This certainly isn’t a surprising story for a team that offered four aces to open the season with Chase Utley on the disabled list. 

However, things have not sailed as smoothly for the rotation as we originally expected.  For starters, Roy Oswalt is enduring a tough season, recently spending nearly two months on the disabled list.  His record stands at just 4-7 with a 3.84 ERA and horrendous 1.41 WHIP.  The team has also had Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and Jose Contreras spend time on the disabled list.  To put that in perspective, those were the top three expected closers coming into the season. 

Considering the Phillies lack of offense and injury issues, this is by no means the team’s full potential.  The fact that they still have put together an 8.5 game lead in the division says that the post-season could be a walk in the park for the Phillies.

Jimmy Rollins

The 32-year-old veteran Jimmy Rollins is neither as good as he was in 2007, when he earned the MVP with a career-high 30 home runs, nor as bad as he was last season when he batted .243.  Rollins is somewhere in between with a .266 average, 71 runs, 13 home runs, and 26 steals. 

Rollins has managed to stay away from the injury-bug this season, and he is significantly better at reaching base with a .340 OBP.  In the field, Rollins is making a case for the Gold Glove award with just five errors, resulting in a stellar .989 fielding percentage. 

If the Phillies are able to win the World Series and Rollins performs at a high level, considering he will likely enter next season just 100 hits shy of 2000 hits for his career, the conversation can begin about whether the Phillies shortstop will one day find himself in the Hall of Fame. 

Dominic Brown (replaced by Hunter Pence)

It was certainly a difficult season for Phillies top prospect Dominic Brown.  First sidelined with a broken hand, Brown hit just .246 with five home runs and three steals before returning to the Minor Leagues after the Phillies acquired Hunter Pence. 

The good news for Brown is that the franchise has by no means lost hope in the 23-year-old phenom.  The Phillies went to great lengths to keep him on the roster after the trade deadline, likely passing on Carlos Beltran in order to do so. 

Some good news with Brown’s statistics is that even though he is struggling when it comes to his batting average, he is not getting outmatched at the plate.  This is suggested by his healthy ratio of 25 walks to 34 strikeouts, as well as his 16 extra base hits in 183 at bats.  Brown will certainly return to the Phillies in September, and when he does he will likely steal at bats from John Mayberry and Ben Francisco.   

Top 3 in the Rotation for Playoffs

The Phillies have a problem on their hands, but it isn’t a bad one.  The playoffs are quickly approaching for the first place franchise and the big question is who will start in a seven game series. 

The obvious answers are Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.  The problem is that Cole Hamels is another fairly obvious starter.  That means the veteran Roy Oswalt will have to pitch from the ‘pen, if at all.  The same holds true for Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley, two of the more impressive young pitchers in the league this season.

The Phillies do also have the option of going four-deep in the rotation for the post-season, but my guess is that with the season on the line they will want Halladay and Lee with the ball in their hands as much as possible. 

Again, this problem is far off and injuries can end up answering the question, but for now the Phillies have a delightful problem on their hands.

Are Henderson Alvarez or Garrett Richards Worth Your Time?

By R.J. Anderson //

Pitchers with good stuff and iffy results can frustrate fantasy owners and scouts alike—just ask the fans of Ivan Nova. On Wednesday, two pitchers with a similar report were promoted from the minor leagues: Henderson Alvarez of the Blue Jays and Garrett Ricahrds of the Angels. Is either worth a roster spot? Let’s take a look.

Alvarez is a 21-year-old righty with groundball tendencies. His fastball can and will get into the mid-to-upper 90s and he complements the pitch with a good changeup. For some reason or another, though, Alvarez has never held a strikeout per nine innings ratio over seven throughout the minor leagues. The American League East is no friend to pitchers, young or old, but rookie pitchers in particular can find the transition from the minors to the toughest division in baseball rude. Just ask Kyle Drabek.

Still, there are some encouraging aspects of Alvarez’s game. His 3.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Double-A and 2.86 earned run average are a positive sign, as it’s commonly accepted that the jump from A-ball to Double-A is the toughest a player will face. Even so, Alvarez seems to profile as a back of the rotation starter now unless something clicks. That doesn’t tend to carry a high fantasy value, so abstain from adding him for now.

Richards, on the other hand, is a big righty with a big fastball and good slider. He posted good numbers in the lower minors—not unexpected for a pitcher drafted out of college—but his performance in Double-A has been just okay. His 3.06 ERA and 12-2 record look nice, but a reduction in strikeouts (from 9.4 per nine last season to 6.4) is undesirable.

Unlike Alvarez, Richards is moving into a division that holds two pitching-friendly parks. He still has to face the Rangers, sure, but he will get a crack at the Athletics and Mariners too. Richards feels more likely to have immediate value than Alvarez, if only because of his pedigree, but even then his upside might be a middle of the rotation starter. That does not mean to add him right away, but if you need a spot starter and it’s Richards’ turn to face the Mariners, well, may as well.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.