More Rays Magic?

By R.J. Anderson //

With the rookie performances of Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking every player promoted by the Rays will come out of the gates charging. Having a mindset like that makes outfielder Brandon Guyer and catcher Jose Lobaton, both September callups, interesting prospects to add for the end of the postseason. Are they worth your consideration?

Let’s start with Guyer. The 25-year-old product of the University of Virginia came over in the Matt Garza deal after having a breakout 2010 season in Double-A. In Guyer’s first exposure to Triple-A this season, he kept hitting—tacking a .312/.384/.521 line with 14 home runs to his résumé—and added a neat notch to his major league career when he homered in his first big league at-bat. The results in his 17 big league at-bats since have been less satisfying, as he has just two hits (both singles), but there is reason to believe better days are ahead.

Before displaying more power in recent seasons, Guyer used to receive a tweener label—i.e. his bat played better in center, but his glove did not—and he still has more speed than you expect, however he played linebacker for the Cavaliers football program and it shows. He brings that same tenacity from the gridiron to the ballpark too, as he throws his body around with reckless abandon. What makes Guyer’s power and speed even more tantalizing is how he hits for average too—with a career minor league batting average of .297—the only thing that stands between him and being a nice everyday outfielder is his plate discipline, which can still use a little more refining.

The Rays seem committed to giving Guyer as many starts in the outfield as possible, so he could make for a nice sneaky starter against left-handed pitchers.  The same can be said for Lobaton, as Joe Maddon recently announced Kelly Shoppach’s playing time will diminish to accommodate the Rays efforts in evaluating Lobaton.

Acquire off waivers in 2009, Lobaton is a switch-hitting catcher who has a strong defensive reputation. He came up through the Padres minor league system and even reached the majors in 2009 before being designated for assignment. Lobaton has never been much of a hitting prospect, with a career .259/.348/.410 slash line, however he hit .307/.417/.505 across 244 plate appearances in Triple-A and on rehab assignment in High-A that, when combined with his age (26), make you wonder if maybe something clicked.

The safe bet is to go against that idea, but still, the increased power production is a development worth keeping an eye on, and if you have no other choices, then Lobaton could provide a little value if he gets on a tear.

For more on late season additions, check out BloombergSports.com

Javier Vazquez’s Redemption Song

by Eno Sarris //  

He was done. Finished. His fastball lost two miles per hour in one year and he lost the plate at the same time. Even the fact that he was in the American League East only slightly mitigated the fact that the 35-year-old Javier Vazquez looked like burnt toast.

Maybe we labeled him too soon.

Of course, early this year it looked like he was still done. In the first month of the season, Vazquez was still averaging under 90 MPH on his fastball, and he even dipped as low as 87 MPH in his third start of the year. He had a 6.39 ERA in April, and a 5.67 ERA in May. After another ERA over five in June, his fantasy ownership sagged to a career low.

And then.. a day after he gave up seven runs in three and 2/3 innings… something happened. Take a look at his velocity chart for the year:

Would you look at that. His velocity is back to pre-2010 levels even. He’s been averaging 91.8 MPH since his 13th start. Look at what it did for his results:

First 13 starts: 7.09 ERA in 66 innings, with 45 strikeouts and 31 walks. 

Since: 2.35 ERA in 95 2/3 innings, with 86 strikeouts and 16 walks. 

That’s pretty stark. He’s been vintage Vazquez since June 11, and his velocity is a big part of this.

It’s not all poops and whistles, though. In the last three months, he’s allowed line drive rates over 24%, and 19% is average. That’s a lot of squared-up balls, and yet his BABIP for that time period was only .276. He’s also stranded more runners than the league average in those three months. Luck swung back with him once he had the gas again.

He still has his old flaws, too. As a pitcher that gets his whiffs high in the zone, he’s a fly-ball guy that has been prone to bouts of gopheritis. Only once since 2002 has he managed to allow less than one home run per nine innings. Florida suppresses home runs, but only a little — StatCorner.com has it as 1% below average for home runs by left-handed batters and 5% below for righty batters.

It’s best to still be careful with Vazquez. Even with his old velocity back, his old flaws can make him a bad start in homer-happy ballparks. Considering his recent cryptic remarks about retirement, he’s not a good keeper in any fantasy format, either. But it’s clear that he’s got his gas back and can be a useful role player for any fantasy team down the stretch.

For more on Javier Vazquez and other possible free agents, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office.

Brandon McCarthy Getting Better In Oakland

By Tommy Rancel //

Once a highly touted pitching prospect, Brandon McCarthy has battled with injuries throughout his major league career. A reoccurring shoulder injury forced him to miss the major leagues entirely in 2010; however, he has resurfaced better than ever in 2011. Now pitching for the Oakland Athletics, McCarthy is 8-7 with a 3.41 ERA. He has thrown a career-best 142.2 innings despite missing time earlier this season once again because of his right shoulder.

While a 3.41 ERA is pretty good in its own right, McCarthy has actually pitched better. According to FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) – a metric that measures things a pitcher can control without the influence of defense: strikeouts, walks, home runs – McCarthy has been a top-10 pitcher in the American League. In fact, his 2.77 FIP is actually better than that of Justin Verlander’s. That is not to say McCarthy is the better player, but shows he has been better than his win-loss record or ERA would indicate.

McCarthy’s 6.50 K/9 is slightly below the league average of 7.08; however, his 1.39 BB/9 and 0.50 are well above them. He has faced 577 batters this season and unintentionally walked just 21 of them or 3.6%. The league average for walks is somewhere near 8%. Looking at “luck” stats like BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and HR/FB (home run-to-flyball)rate, McCarthy’s  .304 BABIP is actually higher that the .291 league average.  It is also the highest rate on his team with a minimum of 90 innings pitched.

Although it does not appear McCarthy has been lucky on balls in play, his 5.6% HR/FB rate is extremely low. It is the fourth lowest mark in the AL; however, it cannot simply be dismissed at all luck. His home ballpark – The Coliseum- is among the most pitcher-friendly in the league. According to ESPN Park factors, the stadium is 28th in home runs this season.

McCarthy has also helped keep the ball in the park with a shift in batted ball data. A former flyball pitcher, his groundball rate is over 47% this season. A change in pitch selection is likely behind the change in profile.  His home run rate will likely regress over a longer period of time; meanwhile, remember the park factors and the groundballs before simply dismissing it as good fortune.

The lanky right-hander is coming off his best start of the season. This weekend, McCarthy spun a complete-game shutout of the Seattle Mariners. In the process, he struck out 10 batters without issuing a walk. Over his last two starts, he has 20 strikeouts and 2 walks in 17 innings pitched. Because of the time missed earlier in the season, fatigue not seem to be a concern with McCarthy. With the opportunity for a handful of quality starts down the stretch, he may be someone you consider adding to your playoff roster. Owned in less than 15% of leagues, he is readily available if you need him.

For more on late season additions, check out BloombergSports.com

Making September Lineup Decisions

By Eriq Gardner //

The final few weeks of the MLB season are upon us. No longer can we wait on a slumping superstar to get his act together. A shortage of games means there’s simply not large enough of a sample size to comfortably project that luck will regress to the norm.

As teams in leagues fight in close categories for those extra few difference-making points, this might be the time where conventional wisdom gets flipped. A hot bat might be better in one’s lineup than a big down-on-his-fortune name.

Here are some examples:

  • Progression over Disappointment: Alex Gordon over Andre Ethier: Since the All Star Break, Gordon has been one of the top 10 batters in the majors,with a .312 average and 9 HR and 8 SB. The Royals outfielder may be finally living up to his potential, and with the team being extremely aggressive on the basepaths, Gordon suddenly looks like a sleeper 25/25 candidate for next season. For now, he’s showing decent plate discipline and production across the board to make him a prime September contributor. Meanwhile, Ethier has been terrible with just 2 HR and a .255 BA in the second half. He’s been extremely unlucky as a nice 20 BB/29 KO rate these past couple of months will testify. But there’s no time to wait on whatever mystery ailments have been keeping him back.
  • Accomplishment over Gimpiness: Edwin Encarnacion over Alex Rodriguez: The aging Yankees superstar has been bedeviled by injuries this season, and still holds tremendous game-to-game potential, but with the Bronx Bombers virtually assured of a playoff spot, don’t be surprised to see A-Rod getting extra rest time down the stretch. Even if his nagging thumb injury clears, he will likely be pulled from any lopsided games, making it very tough to count on his at-bats for the final few weeks. Besides, his full season production in 2011 (14 HR, 57 R, 53 RBIs, 4 SB, .288 BA) isn’t that much different than Encarnacion’s (15 HR, 64 R, 44 RBIs, 5 SB, .273 BA). Of late, EE has been tremendously hot, with 9 HR, 4 SB, and a .300 BA since the All Star Break. In that time, he’s been quietly the #1 rated third basemen.
  • Ambition over Laurels: Jemile Weeks over Andrew McCutchen: Since being called up in early June, Weeks has been better than advertised. He hasn’t contributed anything in the power categories, but he’s certainly hitting (.297) and has been hot to show off his wheels. In the second half, he’s stolen nearly as many bases (14) as any other player in baseball and what’s especially encouraging is that his batting eye seems to be getting better and better. He was always a patient hitter in the minors so expect him to continue getting on base and trying to make the case he’s the A’s leadoff hitter of the future. Meanwhile, McCutchen is having a very fine season, and he will no doubt go into next season as one of the top few outfielders. A player whose long-term future continues to be bright. That said, his fortunes have mirrored those of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s slumping of late (.227 BA since the ASB with just 5 SB) and it’s hard to figure he’ll be a solid bet for runs and RBIs in the final month. Those in need of speed in the utility spot wouldn’t be faulted for starting Weeks ahead of McCutchen these final few weeks.

The Return of Strasburg

By R.J. Anderson //

Nationals manager Davey Johnson confirmed on Tuesday what many felt was a given over the last few weeks as he announced Stephen Strasburg will return to the Nationals rotation next week. Such a timetable gives Strasburg three starts before the season ends, but with the fantasy playoffs coming up, are those three starts worth gambling on?

As always, the answer depends on your team strength. If you have multiple frontline pitchers in place, then finding a roster spot for Strasburg might be more about preventing a competitor from grabbing the phenom than adding him with the intent to play him. Still, with a return start looming against the hapless Dodgers, you have to at least consider the option.

Rehab assignments are difficult to get a read on, and the statistics from them tend to be meaningless. Nonetheless, Strasburg’s rehab numbers are impressive: 14 1/3 innings pitched, 25 strikeouts, three walks, one home run, and 13 hits.  Reports from Strasburg’s first time back on the mound suggested his stuff was back and that he was throwing into the upper-90s with his fastball, so it isn’t ridiculous to think he could be able to contribute at the major league level right now.

There is some risk here, as any pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery is hard to predict, and it’s unlikely he would have replicate his impressive totals from last season (68 innings pitched, a 2.91 earned run average, and a 5.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio) over a full season, so imagine the volatility in asking him to do it over three starts. Even so, Strasburg is perhaps the only game changer left on the market, as he is owned in less than 60 percent of ESPN leagues, and if you want him for your own team, then grab him now.

For more on Strasburg and potential September additions, check out bloombergsports.com

Giants’ Giant Moves and the Fantasy Implications

by Eno Sarris //  

The San Francisco Giants finally admitted some of their mistakes today when they designated both Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada for assignment. Looking back at why they should have known better can help us for fantasy purposes, and looking forward to the final month might uncover a fantasy sleeper or two. Perspective is important.

Call Aaron Rowand the more obscene mistake of the two. In 2008, Brian Sabean signed the outfielder to a five-year, $60 million contract after Rowand made some high-profile catches for the Phillies the year before. Sabean was no doubt excited about Rowand’s career-high power surger in 2007, too. Unfortunately, it was fairly obviously an outlier season. Even at that point in his career, Rowand had two seasons with an isolated slugging percentage over .200… and five seasons where it was under .166. He’s always hit more ground balls then fly balls, and he’s never walked at a league average rate. Rowand was sure to be a strong defender in center field, but he wasn’t sure to add much power or patience, and his swinging strike rates suggested he’d always be an average whiffer or worse.

And that’s how it turned out. Rowand never saw even his career-average power in San Francisco (.163 average, .158 Giants-best), he struck out more, never walked, and became a defense-only center fielder pretty quickly. Now all of the center field at-bats will go to Andres Torres and Cody Ross, even if neither provides much offense either. With Torres’ strikeout rate, the best his owners can hope for is a mini power resurgence  (three home runs over the final month?) and a .250 batting average, with maybe five steals to boot.

Ross will be the outfield utility player, more likely to play against lefties as his line against them (.918 OPS vs LHP, .718 vs RHP) is much better. Perhaps it will turn into a straight platoon in left field, actually. Baby Giraffe Brandon Belt bats lefty and is the only non-Carlos-Beltran player on the field right now with elite offensive upside. It might be hard to see it right now with his .219 batting average and slightly-better-than-league-average power (.156 ISO), but Belt does have that sort of long-term upside. Right now, he’s striking out 26.2% of the time, which is out of wack with his swinging strike rate (9.7%, only a little worse than 8.5% league average) and his minor league record (22.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year). Once he strikes out less and shows more of that power (.218 minor league low in ISO, at Triple-A), he’ll show more of that .280/.375/.500 type of ability that he has. If you are desperate for offense in a deeper league, now is a good time to pick up Belt. Keeper leaguers should be trying to buy low too if their deadline has not passed.

Let’s not forget Miguel Tejada just because his one-year, $6.5 million contract was a smaller mistake. His short stint as the Padres shortstop shouldn’t have erased the fact that two teams had already moved him to third base. Once a player has been moved off of shortstop, it’s very rare for him to return and find any prolonged success. And Tejada’s power has been in a tailspin since his last decent year in Baltimore in 2007. He doesn’t walk, doesn’t have power, doesn’t have a shortstop’s glove any more, has failing health, refused to lay down a bunt when his third base coach called for it, hits way too many ground balls and doesn’t have the speed to take advantage of those grounders any more. Need anyone say more?

His absence will create more opportunities for Mike Fontenot at shortstop. The lefty cajun might enter into a straight platoon with righty Orlando Cabrera there, even. Cabrera has been about as bad as he was in Cleveland for the Giants, and he’s been better against lefties in his career (.739 OPS vs lefties, .697 versus righties). Neither shortstop is very exciting, and in a platoon role they are even less so. Still, deeper-leaguers might want Fontenot since there are more right-handed pitchers in the league.

The Giants tried to erase a couple mistakes, but the players behind them are not incredibly interesting. Only Brandon Belt even approaches mixed league consideration. But with a month left and five games between them and the Diamondbacks, the Giants felt they had to do something. Maybe the biggest thing we can learn from them in fantasy is that this is the time to feel some urgency. Go out there and do something for each of your teams today.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.

Fister Winning In Detroit

By Tommy Rancel //

Doug Fister serves as a shining example of why a pitcher’s win-loss record can be misleading. At the time of his trade from the Seattle Mariners to the Detroit Tigers, the right-hander had a 3-12 record. Based on record alone, it would seem the Tigers were making a horrible decision.

That said, his 3.33 ERA and solid defensive independent metrics suggested he was a much better pitcher than his record would indication. Although Fister was not allowing many runs to score, his offense was scoring even less. In games he started, the Mariners averaged less than three runs a game.

Since the trade, Fister has made five starts for the Tigers. He has already doubled his win total on the season (6) despite a slight uptick in ERA (3.45). Why? Because the Tigers are averaging 4.5 runs in his starts.

Wins aside, Fister has been a quality pitcher by any metric. His season ERA stands at 3.35 with an FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.24 and an xFIP (expected FIP) of 3.89. Standard FIP measure things a pitcher can control without outside influence: strikeouts, walks, and home run. Meanwhile, xFIP measures the same things except it normalizes home runs to the league average, further stripping luck from the equation.

What Fister will not give you is much of a boost in strikeouts (5.46 K/9 on the season). On the other hand, he is very stingy with walks. His current 1.75 BB/9 is third best in the American League. Thanks to his low walk rate, his 1.19 WHIP is good for a top-15 spot in the AL. As a member of the Tigers, he has 17 strikeouts and just two walks in 28.2 innings.

Because of his win-loss record, Fister is available in over 85% of leagues according to his Bloomberg Sports card. This is a ridiculously low number considering his is in the top-15 in: innings pitched, walks allowed, WHIP, and ERA. He is also 13th in opponents average (.256) among AL starters with at least 170 innings pitched.

As teams expand rosters come September 1st, you should do the same with your team and Doug Fister. In addition to his own numbers, consider the fact that the Tigers play a favorable schedule down the stretch. Of their final 28 games, 15 come against teams that are a combined 85 games under .500. When you factor in all of the above, Fister may be the difference between becoming a champion or being the runner-up in your league.

For more on Fister and potential September additions, check out bloombergsports.com

A Look at the Young and Old On the Rise


 

 

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Kyle Seager, 2B/3B, Mariners

The Mariners have surprised us in recent weeks with an offense we did not know could exist in Safeco.  While we’ve discussed Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp, another fine hitter to emerge this season is Kyle Seager.  A third round pick in the 2009 draft out of North Carolina, Seager boasts a .313 average after a hitting binge that included 15 hits over six games.  In 24 games at Triple-A Seager hit .387 with a .585 slugging percentage.  So success at the dish is nothing new for the 23-year-old prospect. 

 

John Mayberry, OF, Phillies

While everyone drafted Dominic Brown in their fantasy drafts this season, it’s instead the 2005 first round pick John Mayberry who is enjoying the better season in the Phillies outfield.  The 27-year-old slugger has blasted 12 home runs with 41 RBI through 77 games.  Best of all, Mayberry is not a one-trick pony, as he has swiped six bases already this season.  Mayberry has blasted 18 home runs in 266 career at bats in the Big Leagues and while he can still improve his plate discipline and lift the average some, Mayberry has earned his way to your fantasy roster. 

 

Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves

The Braves legend will not go away.  Chipper Jones has been written off a number of times this season because of his usually array of injuries, but right now he is putting together a nice little hot streak with plenty of power.  The batting average is up to .281 on the season with 13 home runs and 58 RBI.  Since the All-Star break, Jones is batting .387 with five home runs.  51 home runs shy of 500 for his career, the 39-year-old Jones has already stated that he intends to come back for another season. 

 

Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees

Since the All-Star break, Derek Jeter has hit .355 with 26 runs in 37 games.  While that’s nice and all, what’s more remarkable to me is that on the season his average has soared all the way up to .299.  So is Jeter back to being Jeter?  Yes and no.  The average is good and the 13 steals isn’t bad, but the limited power he once had is all but gone.  During his hot streak, Jeter has just 10 extra bases including one home run.  While he’s not a power guy, it seems that a lot of his hits are coming on grounders with eyes.  Regardless, Jeter has played a large part of keeping the Yankees afloat with A-Rod.  He also took away a lot of the pressure for next season, as fans will not be clamoring for a position switch.

The Dude Abides: Lucas Duda’s Power Bat

 

Follow us on Twitter: @BloombergSports @RobShawSports @MicheleSteele

 

On television they call him Lebowski, but Mets fans should call him their next great hope.  While David Wright has regressed to being just a solid player and Jose Reyes can’t stay healthy, the team is desperate for a bat to play the role they anticipated from Jason Bay.

 

Fortunately for them a player has stepped up.  His name is Lucas Duda and he boasts a .279 average with seven home runs with 36 RBI.  While those numbers are not the most impressive, if you take a look at what has occurred since the All-Star break it’s a different story: 7 HR, .321 average, with 24 RBI.

 

The best news is that Mets fans may have more power coming.  Justin Turner has played with Duda in the Minor Leagues and he has seen with his own eyes what Duda is capable of, “You guys haven’t even seen him get hot yet… I played with him last year when he was unbelievable… when he starts hitting the ball over the fence, it comes in bunches, so we’re waiting to see that, it’s really fun to watch.”

 

At the moment, Duda has been splitting his time between first base and right field.  Though he has offered decent defense at first base, his future will be at right-field once Ike Davis returns from injury.  “I think wherever.. right field or first base… right field is a work in progress, but anywhere that is going to get me at bats.”  The fact that the Mets will be able to pencil him in at right-field is a big lift for a team that will look to fill some holes after losing Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez in trades. 

 

While there is some fear that Jose Reyes may be the next to leave Flushing, at least Mets fans know that the Duda abides.  “As you play more as you get more at bats…, your confidence grows and I think it is growing right now,” says the red-hot Mets slugger.

 

Replacing Brian Wilson

By R.J. Anderson //

Giants closer Brian Wilson was placed on the disabled list recently, causing a frenzy amongst his fantasy league owners. With only a few weeks remaining in the season, this is not the best time to lose your finest reliever. As it stands, there are really only two strategic options.

1) Find a new closer

Easier said than done, however two names to consider: Mark Melancon and Jason Isringhausen. Rob covered Isringhausen in more depth on Monday and he is available in more than 50 percent of ESPN leagues, probably because of the shaky situation unfolding with the Mets desire to get more of Bobby Parnell.

Melancon is available in roughly 35 percent of ESPN’s league because he closes for the Astros. One of the requirements for registering a save is the pitcher’s team having a lead in the final inning, and the Astros—who are more than 40 games under the .500 mark—rarely have that luxury. Melancon still gets a fair amount of appearances and strikeouts, plus he could help with the occasional save. His inclusion here actually leads in nicely to the other strategy on the table …

2) Punt saves, add the best reliever available

Some leagues value holds, but many don’t. That means a variety of strong setup men are left in the free agent pool because they offer little value given the limited amount of roster spaces. Take Mike Adams, who is universally regarded as the best eighth inning pitcher in the minors. He has a career 2.03 earned run average and a 1.39 ERA this season, yet is on less than 20 percent of the ESPN league rosters because he does not get saves (only three career). If Adams, the best of the best, is available in that many leagues, then there is a really good opportunity to find someone in your league who can help you in other categories, if not saves.

Those options might not be ideal, but you have to make the best of what the season throws your way.

For the best fantasy baseball analysis and insight please visit BloombergSports.com.