Category: Uncategorized

Fantasy MLB: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

The Good:

Kurt Suzuki, C, A’s: 2 runs, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .278 AVG

Just 27 years old, Suzuki is one of the few young catchers who will get 500 at bats thanks to durability and high placement in the A’s batting lineup.  He regressed a bit last season, perhaps because of injuries, but this season, he’s been somewhere in between.  He has just two homers and 7 RBI, but his average is a decent .256 plus a stolen base.  He’s been better than Jorge Posada, but his upside is limited. 

Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: 5 runs, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .389 AVG

One of the most underrated power bats in the Majors, Luke Scott blasted 27 home runs last season and it would not surprise me if he reaches 30 this season.  He doesn’t get any steals and his career average is average at best at .268, but he is one of the few players who has increased his power output every single season in the Major Leagues.  This is now his 7th season in the Big Leagues. 

Jack Hannahan, 3B, Indians: 4 runs, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 SB

This 31-year old journeyman came out of nowhere to blast four home runs through 22 games with 14 runs and 14 RBI.  Warning, he is a career .228 hitter with limited speed.  Enjoy it while it lasts, but I don’t see it lasting all season. 

The Bad:

Nick Swisher, OF, Yankees: .174 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI

With a .218 average and just one home run, there is some disappointment with Swisher.  Truth is that you should have seen this coming.  His batting average per ball in play was out of whack last season, so you should expect him to bat around .250 this year, after all, his career average is .251.  The power should bounce back, but this is not a hitter that offers much in fantasy baseball. 

Carlos Pena, 1B, Cubs: 1/11, 1 run

The Cubs took a gamble and it does not seem to be working.  Pena has yet to go deep and his average has fallen to .167, which is actually just 30 points lower than last season.  He’ll get some homers though it may be a race against time… the Cubs will eventually have to push Pena on the bench if he can’t hit above the Mendoza line. 

Jason Bay, OF, Mets: 3 Runs, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .200 AVG

After a nice return to the Mets that led to a six game winning streak, Bay has gone on to have just one hit in his last 17 at bats.  He is striking out a ton and has just 3 RBI in 10 games.  He should find himself a home on the fantasy waiver wire.

Top 5 MLB Disappointments So Far

Investing in a player means making an emotional commitment. A month into the season, some players aren’t performing up to snuff, and competitors are no doubt wondering who among April’s disappointments deserves the roster axe. Here’s five of the least-valuable, most universally-owned players who are currently killing their owners — and some insight into what’s ahead for each of them:

Ryan Dempster:

It’s easy to forget, but at one point in Dempster’s career, he was a mediocre closer for the Chicago Cubs. In 2006, Dempster registered 24 saves, but a 4.80 ERA. In 2007, Dempster notched 28 saves, but a 4.73 ERA. When Dempster was switched to starter the following year, expectations were little, and yet for three consecutive seasons, Dempster was one of the best, most consistent starters in the National League, posting a healthy number of wins, strong strikeout totals, and an excellent ERA. Entering the season, Dempster seemed to fly underneath the radar as 200+K pitcher with several strong seasons underneath his belt, and yet, Dempster may be headed for the dumpster in many fantasy leagues with an ERA currently standing at 9.58. He could be a good bet to turn things around. The strikeouts are still coming for Dempster, and while his walk rate has climbed somewhat, what’s really troubling him is a phenomenal amount of fly balls going for HRs – nearly a quarter when the MLB average is typically 10 percent. That will regress.

Francisco Liriano:

Liriano has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career, but also has flashed tantalizing potential that makes him the definition of a “toxic asset,” somebody who is hard to cut loose. No doubt many are tempted with a 9.13 ERA, and there’s hardly anything in Liriano’s peripherals at the moment that point to a rebound. His strikeout rate has dropped from a career average of 9.19 Ks/9 IP down to 6.85 and his walk rate has climbed all the way up to 6.85. Yes, he has walked just as many batters as he has struck out. Although it wouldn’t be surprising to see Liriano turn things around, the question will be how much rope he’ll get to do just that. Kevin Slowey is due back soon, and the Twins also have one of the most major league ready pitching prospects in the minors in Kyle Gibson. Sell low? Not the worst idea.

Carlos Pena:

Pena didn’t have a great season last season as he hit less than 30 HRs for the first time since 2006 and had an average below the Mendoza Line. Some optimism followed him this off-season nonetheless because regression was expected plus he was moving to the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. But Pena didn’t hit a single HR in April and his average has dropped even further from last year’s low standard. These days, Pena simply can’t hit left-handers, striking out 8 times in 13 at-bats against them. He’s quickly becoming a player who will be platooned. Our sense is that if he is dropped in fantasy leagues, even in very deep ones, he won’t be claimed.

Vernon Wells:

When Wells was traded this off-season, many pundits ridiculed the Angels for acquiring the big contract. Nevertheless, Wells was drafted in the 11th round in fantasy leagues and is still owned in nearly all leagues despite the woeful start that’s making even the most dire assessments of the Angels centerfielder seem kind.  One month is still too little a sample set to draw firm conclusions, but Wells is hitting a mere .157 at home compared to a more respectable .267 on the road. His strikeout rate is up; his walk rate is down; Wells is getting unlucky, but not enough to say with any confidence he’ll avoid being a bust in 2011. Surely, Wells has demonstrated enough contact skills throughout his career to put together a nice hot streak, so he shouldn’t be summarily cut from squads without further thought. But given the depth at the outfield position, his upside isn’t strong enough to justify excruciating patience either.

Derek Jeter

Is this the end of the line for the future Hall of Famer? Coming off a bad season, Jeter was still given the benefit of the doubt thanks to high scarcity at the shortstop position. In April, however, Jeter failed to record a single HR or SB, making him less valuable than, well, just about everybody. Still, there’s some reasons for optimism: He’s not striking out much these days, and is suffering a miserable batting average on balls in play. He’s sporting an atrociously high ground ball rate (73%) this year so far, so there’s no huge cause of optimism for the return of his power, and yet given Jeter’s strong batting eye, hard work, and good team environment, he still represents a lot of upside, especially now that his stock has fallen so low.

–Eriq Gardner

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com

Top 5 MLB Leaderboard Surprises: Fuld, Berkman, Masterson, Street, Gordon

Names like Roy Halladay, Jose Bautista, and Joey Votto were expected to be near the top of the leaderboards before the 2011 season started. Meanwhile, every year there are a handful of surprise players that capture the attention of Major League Baseball. With that in mind here are five players you would not expect to be at or near the top of the leaderboards in April:

Sam Fuld:

The fifth man in a five-man return for Matt Garza, Fuld has become a cult-hero in Tampa Bay. Due to the sudden retirement of Manny Ramirez and the oblique injury to Evan Longoria, Fuld was thrust into an everyday role with the Rays. He responded by hitting over .350 for most of the month and settled in as the team’s leadoff hitter. Fuld finished April on a 0-18 streak which dropped his average to .289; however, even as a .280 hitter, his ability to talk a walk should keep him on base quite a bit. After just two stolen base attempts as a member of the Chicago Cubs, Fuld’s speed has been unleashed in Tampa Bay. The American League leader in steals for the month of April (10), should continue to run wild and score runs with a good offense behind him.

Lance Berkman:

Berkman has been an offensive star for most of his career. That said, in 2010, he hit just 14 home runs in 122 games. A rejuvenated Big Puma has surfaced in St. Louis. In less than 100 at-bats in the month, Berkman belted eight home runs; more than half of his season total from last year. He is third in the National League in runs score and fourth in RBI. Of course, he won’t hit .393 all season, but the potential for 60-plus extra-base hits is a possibility.

Alex Gordon:

A former top prospect in all of baseball, Alex Gordon found himself back in the minor leagues last season. After a position switch to the outfield and more recently first base, Gordon is in the American League top 10 of several offensive categories including: average (.339) on-base percentage (.395), runs scored (20), RBI (19),  and doubles (12).  Gordon has been very fortunate on balls in play which is inflating his early season stats. Considering most of his value is tied to his batting average, he could be a sell high candidate.

Justin Masterson:

After going a combined 10-23 in 2009 and 2010, Masterson went 5-0 in the month of April. The groundball specialist will not get a ton of strikeouts (6.0 K/9 so far), but does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. His 2.18 ERA will certainly regress, but playing for a more talented Cleveland team makes him a candidate for double-digit wins. If his infielders continue to gobble up grounders, Masterson could be one of the better pitchers in the American League all season.

Huston Street:

When healthy, Street is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. In the past he has battled arm injuries – including 2010 when he missed the first  two and a half months with shoulder inflammation. Upon his return, Street saved 20 games in 44 appearances. Seemingly healthy in 2011, he has racked up 10 saves in the first month of the season. In terms of peripheral numbers, Street’s strikeout and walk rate so far are within ticks of his career numbers. His velocity is down a bit, but he proving his durability with 15 appearances and 16.1 innings in the first month. A healthy Street plus a good Colorado team could mean 40-plus saves with a sub 3.00 ERA.

–Tommy Rancel

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visit BloombergSports.com

The Return of Joel Pineiro

By R.J. Anderson //

Few players in recent memory have witnessed the ups and downs of Joel Pineiro. Forever labeled as a guy with better stuff than results during his Seattle days, Pineiro eventually signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. Months later, the Red Sox dumped him to the Cardinals and the rest has been history. Under Dave Duncan’s tutelage, Pineiro saw a dramatic increase in his groundball rate—from around 45-to-50 percent to over 60 percent in 2009. The Angels, fretting not of a one-year wonder, signed Pineiro to a two-year deal and the short righty has provided them with good service when healthy.

After missing some time in 2010 with an oblique injury, Pineiro started the 2011 season n the mend too with shoulder tightness. Over the weekend, Pineiro returned—much to the relief of the Angels, who had Matt Palmer in the rotation in his place—and looked a lot like his typical self. Facing a Rays lineup that is generally tough on righties, Pineiro went seven, allowing one run (on a Matt Joyce home run), walking one (intentionally), and fanning three. The Rays put 19 balls into play and 10 of them were of the groundball variety.

Of course, Pineiro isn’t going to provide seven innings of one-run ball every time out, but over the last three seasons he has an aggregate earned run average of 4.07, a WHIP of 1.26, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.9. Add in Pineiro’s average workload (172 innings) and that he tends to win double-digit games, and plucking him as an emergency starter at this point in the season seems like a decent get—particularly in deeper leagues or those of the AL-only variety.

The one caveat about Pineiro is his health. Shoulder tightness is nothing to play around with, but there within itself lies the beauty of grabbing Pineiro: the transaction cost is low enough to cut bait without worry.

For access to the top baseball analytics and fantasy tool Bloomberg Sports Front Office visitBloombergSports.com

Bloomberg Sports Exclusive: Why is Hanley Ramirez Struggling and Lance Berkman Shining

What happened to Hanley Ramirez?

Why is a .310 hitter batting just .197 on the season without a home run?

–   What’s the big difference between last year and this year? 46 of the 327 pitches that have been thrown his way are right over the middle of the plate waist high and he is batting just .273 with a .364 slugging percentage thanks to just one extra base hit (a double on a fastball against John Lannon) in 12 at bats.  In comparison, last season Ramirez faced 323 pitches right over the middle of the plate and he batted .326 with a .612 slugging percentage. 

–   Conclusion– He is not punishing the pitches he should hit. 

–   As far as the outpitches, how’s Hanley handling those? Ramirez has historically struggled against off-speed pitches.  Last season, he hit just .245 against non fastballs.  However, they only threw those pitches 39% of the time.  This year, they have thrown Ramirez off-speed pitches 40% of the time, but there are two major issues, number one, he’s not hitting the fastball.  The very pitch he hit .361 against in 2009, and .336 in 2010, Ramirez is hitting just .262 in 42 at bats. 

–   Is there anything different about the fastballs thrown to him this season?  The answer is yes, they are coming in at 91.2 MPH, compared to 90.5 MPH in 2009 and 90.7 in 2010. 

–   And then there is the change-up, a pitch Ramirez has yet to get a hit again in 10 at bats. 

–   Conclusion– He is struggling more than ever against the off-speed pitches, but he is also not hitting the pitches that we’d expect him to hit, considering he is just 27-years old and has not suffered an injury, Ramirez should bounce back.

What’s the difference for Lance Berkman?

–   Lance Berkman is not just good, he has been perhaps the best hitter in all of baseball with a .410 average, 8 homers, 22 runs, and 22 RBI.  Why is it such a surprise for the perennial All-Star, well first of all he is 35 years and second, he is coming off his worst season, when he hit just .248. 

–   Is it a move to St. Louis?  No, Berkman has all eight home runs on the road this season in 11 games, though at home he is batting .432. 

–   So how can you get him out?  Throw the ball low, as in below the strike zone, he has yet to get a hit in 5 at bats against those pitches.  And paint the corners.  When the ball is thrown over the heart of the plate, Berkman boasts a .421 average and .895 slugging percentage. 

–   When he’s batting from the left side, throw the ball inside, he boasts just a .273 average on inside pitches.  When he’s batting from the road side, he has yet to get a hit above his waist.

–   Conclusion– Berkman has been incredible, and you can’t really pitch around him with Pujols and Holliday before him and Colby Rasmus after him.  The pitchers have to paint the corners, otherwise, just wait for the veteran to cool down.