Category: fantasybaseball
Bloomberg Sports Hoards Catchers in Inaugural LABR Mixed League Draft
By Tom Trudeau
The inaugural LABR mixed league draft was held this past Saturday night, causing some of the industry’s brightest minds to miss the NBA Slam Dunk Contest. Competing against an experienced group of fantasy owners made it even more important to dig deep for undervalued commodities. Using Bloomberg Sports’ Front Office 2012, I was able to find those commodities at the catcher position.
Determining replacement level and evaluating positional scarcity are two of the toughest tasks facing an owner in a deep league with a lot of positions. A top-200 list for a typical 10-team league should look very different from a top-200 list for a 15-team league with two catchers, five outfielders, a middle infielder, and a corner infielder, since any change to positional requirements affects replacement level across the board.
It’s hard to overstate how much more valuable catchers are in a two-catcher league. Front Office generates “B-Ranks” for each player based on the league’s settings. For example, Mike Napoli’s B-Rank in a one-catcher, 15-team league is 42nd, while Carlos Santana checks in at 55th. For mixed LABR, those B-Ranks jump to 21st and 28th, respectively. B-Ranks for backstops increased enough to make catchers roughly twice as valuable in the LABR draft, by far the biggest increase of any position. This made catchers the most undervalued commodity on draft day, relative to a typical top-300 list or even the ADP results that the experts study.
With this in mind, I was thrilled to land the top-ranked catcher, Mike Napoli, with the 32nd pick, Joe Mauer with the 59th pick, and Salvador Perez with the 269th pick. Perez’ B-Rank of 109 made him one of the best value picks of the day for my squad. He instantly becomes either an overqualified backup or a valuable trade chip in a league where other owners will be forced to start catchers such as Ryan Hanigan, Wilin Rosario, and Yorvit Torrealba.
Click here to see the complete results.
Aces on the Move: CJ Wilson, Heath Bell, and Joe Nathan
BY ROB SHAW
CJ Wilson may have been the top arm on the market this off-season, but the pressure is certainly not as intense on the hurler as it is on Albert Pujols. The reason is very simple, while Pujols is the best hitter in the world Wilson isn’t even the best arm on the Angels.
Wilson’s struggles in the postseason may have left a bad taste in the mouth of Rangers fans, but the hurler is actually in a much better situation now that he flees the hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington. Putting the 2011 playoffs aside, the year as whole brough great improvement for Wilson. His strikeouts went up while his walks went down.
Another factor for Wilson this season will be his run support. Typically leaving the Rangers, who are loaded with sluggers, will result in a decline of run support. However, that is not the case since Pujols will also join the Angels who already have some former first basemen who know something about providing big bats.
The Angels will be fun to watch for many reasons, and after falling to Pujols and the Cardinals in the postseason last season, Wilson should enjoy the shot at winning with Pujols as his teammate manning first base.
It made perfect sense for the Miami Marlins to sign Heath Bell. The veteran hurler has three straight seasons with 40-plus saves and while the Marlins have had some success in their bullpen in recent years, it has not been as dominant as what the Padres enjoyed. There is just one problem with bringing in Bell and expecting everything to run smoothly. There are signs that the 34-year-old may be losing his effectiveness.
A late bloomer with the Mets, Bell broke out in San Diego, where he had the benefit of little media attention and one of the most favorable ballparks for pitchers. In fact his 2.88 ERA on the road last season was not as dominant as the 2.15 ERA he posted at PETCO Park.
Bell also regressed as a strikeout hurler. His 11 K/9 dropped to 7 K/9, as his whiff rate fell by 9%. This is not just a matter of Bell losing velocity, in fact, the main issue has been a loss of effectiveness in his curveball. In 2010, the opposition hit just .141 against that pitch, and last season it spiked two-fold to .282. The out-pitch is not recording as many outs.
Bell should enjoy plenty of save opportunities since the Marlins did improve their starting rotation and offense, but there should be less heralded hurlers in fantasy leagues who can end up posting better numbers this season.
At first glance, last year was a disaster for long-time Twins closer Joe Nathan. His ERA doubled, his strikeouts declined, and his saves were cut drastically. Of course, Nathan was also returning to the mound after missing all of the 2010 with a major arm injury.
On that note, Nathan’s statistics should be measured differently. Rather than focus on the full season, we should pay greater attention to the end of the season when he finally shed all of his rust. From June 25th on, Nathan was his usual dominant self. His WHIP was a dominant 0.90 from that point forward, which suggests that even in his late 30s, Nathan still possesses the ability to dominate.
Nathan now joins the Texas Rangers, and while he will throw the ball in a much more hitter-friendly ballpark, he joins a better club that will likely result in more save opportunities. The ERA may take a slight uptick, but overall he will enjoy more saves and have more value assuming he can stay healthy. It also allows some of the younger hurlers to take on larger roles in the starting rotation.
Average Joes on the Move: Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis, and Fernando Rodney
BY ROB SHAW
The 8th pick of the 2003 draft, Paul Maholm finishes his Pirates career with 53 wins and 73 losses in 185 starts. He did not carry much momentum at season’s end, as he lost his final five decisions as the opposition hit .355 against him following the All-Star break.
The Cubs are hoping that the southpaw will perform at a higher level outside of Pittsburgh similar to former Pirates hurler Jon Lieber, who excelled with the Cubs. The big question is whether Maholm has the making of an above average pitcher.
Prior to the All-Star break Maholm dominated, limiting the opposition to a .227 average and a .298 OBP. The problem here is that a larger sample size is the 2010 season and the opposition hit .303 against him then.
A move to Chicago does not seem like a career-saver for the 29-year-old veteran. In fact, he will have enough pressure on him simply to stay in the starting rotation.
Despite a run of six straight seasons with 11-plus wins a few years back, Jason Marquis is not considered one of the better hurlers in baseball. After some success including an 8-5 record and 3.74 ERA through 20 starts with the Nationals last season, the New York native did not fare as well when he was dealt to the Diamondbacks. Marquis imploded with a sky-high ERA of 9.53 in three starts.
The main problem for Marquis is that he is simply too hittable. The opposition hit .291 against him prior to the All-Star break and that’s when things were going well for him. He is a junkball pitcher (46% of his pitches are off-speed), who eats innings and gives his team a shot at staying in the game.
The good news is that Marquis moves to a pitcher’s park in Minnesota, which should help keep the ball in play and lead to more outs. While he could reach double digits in wins once again, his fantasy value remains limited due to his lack of strikeouts and soaring WHIP.
The Rays have been known for taking underachieving relievers and making them a part of an elite bullpen. The latest hurler to be added to the mix is former Tigers closer Fernando Rodney, and his potential is sky high.
Rodney has been solid in the past, racking up 37 saves for the Tigers in 2009. However, last season was a step in the wrong direction as he walked more batters than he struck out for the first time in his career. Rodney has a high velocity fastball, and he can be unhittable at times. In fact, last season the opposition mustered just a .224 average against him all season, but because of his wildness, his ERA ballooned to 4.50.
Part of the issue last season was that Rodney was not 100% healthy. This season he should be able to bounce back, and with the Rays pitching tutelage working in his favor, a fine ERA and many strikeouts is very realistic. Regardless, without saves his fantasy value is limited.
New Faces, New Places Part 3: Carlos Beltran, David DeJesus, and Michael Cuddyer
BY ROB SHAW
When former Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran joined the Giants, he was a bit slow out of the gate, but by season’s end he hit .323 with a .551 following the trade. He was particularly hot in September, offering a .378 batting average. However, by then the Giants were no longer contenders and Beltran was an impending free agent.
While Beltran put together solid figures last season with 22 home runs and a .300 average, this is not the fantasy sensation of years passed when he could belt 40-plus home runs and swipe 40 bases. Beltran had just four steals last season and his run production was a bit low too with 84 RBI and 78 runs.
At 34 years old, Beltran is limited, but he can still offer some fantasy value. He now joins the Cardinals, which makes it the first time that he’s stepped out of a pitcher’s park for home games since he played with the Astros back in 2004.
Beltran will not replace Pujols in the lineup, but he can be a solid bat who offers 25 home runs, 90 RBI, and a .300 average. Of course, his age and injury-riddled past carry plenty of risk as well.
Last season was a season of collapses for many of the game’s most consistent players. While Hanley Ramirez and Adam Dunn highlight the list, the same can be said about veteran David DeJesus. The long-time outfielder for the Royals struggled in Oakland with the A’s.
DeJesus never was a fantasy star, but he did once score 101 runs in a season, belted 10-plus home runs twice, and hit better than .290 four times in his career. That’s why it was so shocking that he hit .240 in Oakland. The Coliseum certainly played a role, as his batting average dipped to .229 at home. On the other hand, playing on the road did not bring many advantages.
Despite DeJesus’ struggles under Billy Bean’s A’s, Theo Epstein remained interested and acquired him this off-season. Even in his worst career season, DeJesus reached base at a respectable .323 clip. At 32 years old, DeJesus is not going to experience a drastic turnaround, however, he should bounce back to a .280 average with solid run production. He will remain bettter in reality than fantasy.
It is very rare to call a 33-year-old outfielder a sleeper, but that is exactly the case for Rockies outfielder Michael Cuddyer. Sure, the veteran had some good moments with the Twins, blasting 32 home runs in 2009, driving in 109 RBI in 2006, and even swiping 11 bases last season. However, those figures all came while playing half of his games in a pitcher’s park.
This season Cuddyer will call home to Coors Field, one of the most notorious hitter’s parks in baseball history because of the altitude. Furthermore, he will be joined in the lineup by MVP candidates Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki after spending the last few seasons with injury-prone stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.
The scouting report on Cuddyer is not to leave anything over the plate on the first pitch. Cuddyer ranks amongst the game’s best with a .450 average on first pitches. He is also a rare hitter that feasts against off-speed pitches (.310 average with 12 home runs).
Always solid, we expect Cuddyer to be stellar this season.
New Faces, New Places Part 2: Chris Capuano, Ryan Ludwick, and Juan Pierre
BY ROB SHAW
Twitter: @RobShawSports
Seven years ago Chris Capuano was one of the best starters in baseball, as he went 18-11 for the Milwaukee Brewers. The good times did not last long as Capuano was derailed by arm injuries that forced him to miss 2008-2009.
In his first full season back, Capuano pitched well for the Mets with 11 wins and a 4.55 ERA. However, a closer look at the statistics reveals that there could endure some trouble ahead. Capuano surrendered 1.31 HR/9, which would have been an issue had he stayed in New York with the fences getting drawn closer. His 5.42 ERA on the road is also an issue with Capuano moving away from Citi Field.
Fantasy managers can take some relief in the fact that Capuano’s move to Los Angeles means he’ll continue to pitch in a pitcher’s park. Furthermore, the Dodgers lineup should have more punch than the Mets lineup, which puts 12 wins within reach.
In 2008, Ryan Ludwick was one of the best players in baseball. He blasted 37 home runs, drove in 113 RBI, and hit .299 for the Cardinals. Ludwick failed to repeat the success and within two years he was dealt to the Padres.
In San Diego, Ludwick has regressed a great deal. His power and average took a severe decline and last season he was dealt to the Pirates. In particular, Ludwick has struggled against the fastball, and he is no longer hitting many line drives.
A move away from PETCO Park will give Ludwick every chance of regaining his confidence. At 33 years old, Ludwick is far from his prime, but 20-plus home runs with solid run production is a legitimate best-case scenario.
One of the most consistent hitters over the last decade has been Juan Pierre, most recently the leadoff man for the White Sox. In fact, Pierre ranks second on Major League Baseball for plate appearances since 2010. However, Pierre’s role will change dramatically now that he returns to the National League with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Now a 34-year-old speedster, Juan Pierre did score 80 runs with 27 steals and a .279 average last season. However, his success rate for stolen bases took a nose-dive from 79% to 61%. In an era in which every statistic is studied by the front office, it is clear that Pierre’s struggles to secure stolen bases actually may have cost his team runs last season.
The Phillies are not looking for Pierre to play an everyday role. The hope is that Dominic Brown regains his confidence and becomes a rising star next to Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Pierre will likely man a fourth outfielder role and offer some serious speed off the bench. His fantasy value takes a major hit this season.
For more fantasy baseball insight visit BloombergSports.com
New Faces, New Places Part 1: Prince Fielder, Josh Willingham, and Aramis Ramirez
BY ROB SHAW
Twitter: @RobShawSports
The Tigers made a bold move this off-season when they responded to Victor Martinez’s unfortunate season-ending knee injury by acquiring slugger Prince Fielder.
Fielder is fresh off one of his finest seasons with 38 home runs and 120 RBI while batting .299 for the Brewers. The main complaint on Fielder is that his sheer size will eventually lead to some injuries, however, the same was once said of Miguel Cabrera when the Tigers acquired that star from the Marlins. While Cabrera has had some issues off the field, he is also one of the most consistent and dependable sluggers in baseball over the last five seasons. Similarly, Fielder ranks third in plate appearances since 2006 only trailing Ichiro and Derek Jeter.
Another statistic that should provide some confidence for Tigers fans is the fact that Fielder decreased his strikeout rate and total significantly last season. While Ryan Howard has been a minor disappointment with the Phillies since signing a major contract due to his free-swinging ways, Fielder is more of a contact hitter, which can keep innings and rallys alive.
Desperate for some offense, the Twins signed Josh Willingham during the off-season. The move seems to make some sense as Willingham is fresh off a career-high 29 home runs and 98 RBI and should help replace Michael Cuddyer in the lineup.
The problem is that Willingham also saw his average and OBP take a hit last season from .268 to .246 and from .389 to .332. These numbers are actually lower than Cuddyer posted last season.
The hope for the Twins is that Willingham posted respectable numbers despite the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum and the A’s lineup generated very little protection, suggesting that he should surpass those figures this season. There is a problem with that logic, as Willingham actually performed better at home than on the road and the Twins Target Field is also a pitcher’s haven with a Twins offense that offered little production last season.
No question about it the Twins acquisition of Willingham carries some risk. We will soon find out if Willingham is a one-trick pony that specializes in power or if he can return to his previous year’s level of reaching base more consistently.
The Milwaukee Brewers are reeling right now as Prince Fielder left for the Detroit Tigers and MVP winner Ryan Braun may miss 50 games of the season with a suspension for using a performance-enhancing substance. The lone piece of good news is that the team did acquire Aramis Ramirez over the off-season, which will offer some stability at the hot corner.
In effect, Ramirez will have to replace Fielder as the slugger in the Brewers lineup. The main issue for Ramirez over the years has been his inability to stay healthy. In fact, Ramirez has managed to play 150 games just twice in his 14-year career.
Last year Ramirez was healthy and the result was 26 home runs, 93 RBI, and a .306 average. Ramirez is a solid all-around hitter who often puts the ball in play while also drawing a healthy dose of walks. The one statistic that showed Ramirez to return to form last season was his ability to hit the fastball. After hitting just .236 off the heater last season, Ramirez belted 13 home runs with a .302 average this season.
Ramirez should once again offer a solid bat with some power this season… assuming he can stay healthy.
For more fantasy insight visit BloombergSports.com.
Jim Thome Returns to Phillies
After spending last season with the Twins and Indians, Jim Thomes will return to the National League in a backup role with the Phillies.
Thome, who boasts 604 home runs for his career, has the most opposite-field home runs of all-time. This isn’t exactly something new for Phillies fans as their current first baseman Ryan Howard boasts the most ever in a single season.
Since Thome left the Philles and was replaced by Howard, Thome’s on-base percentage has been 21 points higher than Howard’s (.389 to .368). With Howard recovering from an Achilles injury, Thome is a fine backup option.
For more insight visit BloombergSports.com for the Front Office Product
MLB Division Series Game 5 Scouting Reports
The first Division Series game five kicks off on Thursday night:
Detroit at Yankees- Ivan Nova vs Doug Fister
– Even though he is far from a strikeout pitcher, Nova has to get ahead in the count: 1-1 count is vital, .172 average with no home runs on 1-2 count, compared to a .413 average with 2 HR on 2-1.
– Derek Jeter- since July 4, batting .331
– Doug Fister does not give up walks (ranks 6th in MLB with 1.5 BB/9) or home runs (ranks 5th with 0.47 HR/9)
– Love the catcher situation for Tigers, Avila has the highest OPS .896 of all catchers, and Victor Martinez bats .340 as a DH compared to .284 as a catcher.
Now onto Friday night:
Arizona at Milwaukee- Ian Kennedy vs Yovani Gallardo
– Kennedy is best when the heat is on .140 average, just one home run with runners in scoring position.
– Ryan Roberts 11 home runs came in innings 1-3, just 1 in innings 7-9
– Corey Hart bats .370 when ahead in the count compared to .214 when behind
– Gallardo: April to August .246 average against on off-speed pitches // September: .158 average against
St. Louis at Philadelphia- Chris Carpenter vs Roy Halladay
– Pujols- keep the pitches outside .262 average, .360 slugging on outside pitches this season
– Carpenter should keep them in the game, he has a 2.39 ERA this season in games with 0-2 run support, compared to 5.70 when he gets 6+ runs.
– Raul Ibanez is a .274 hitter with 15 home runs at home compared to .210 with 5 home runs on the road
– Halladay can be beat on the first pitch- .331 average against 13 extra base hits
Mike Napoli Is On The Verge Of Superstardom
By Eriq Gardner //
Last off-season, the Toronto Blue Jays sent Vernon Wells to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Mike Napoli. As soon as it happened, commentators were lauding Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos for the Herculean feat of getting rid of Wells’ bloated and back-loaded $126 million contract, so much so that it almost became an afterthought when the team shipped off Napoli to the Texas Rangers in a deal shortly thereafter.
Considering the mediocre season that Wells is having with the Angels, the trade is still going to look good for Anthopoulos. However, it’s worth considering whether a real huge mistake was made by the Toronto GM by waiving adieu to Napoli so quickly.
Napoli isn’t just having a very good season down south; He’s having an awesome one — a breakout campaign that’s gone largely ignored thanks to the fact that he missed a few weeks in June with a strained oblique and entered the season as a part-time player thanks to defensive shortcomings.
Lately, Napoli’s hitting strengths have outweighed the fielding negatives, and he’s been playing pretty much every day. If this is a sign of things to come in future seasons, Napoli could be a dark-horse candidate for league MVP.
Sound like a stretch?
Consider the following:
In fantasy leagues, on a per-game basis this season, Napoli rates out to the 10th most valuable batter at any position in baseball (through September 16th). Here’s the top 12 batters on a per-game basis according to our calculations:
- Ryan Braun
- Curtis Granderson
- Jose Bautista
- Matt Kemp
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Carlos Gonzalez
- Adrian Gonzalez
- Albert Pujols
- Josh Hamilton
- Mike Napoli
- Robinson Cano
- Miguel Cabrera
Yes, if playing time was adjusted evenly, Napoli’s stat line of 26 HR, 67 RBIs, 67 Runs, 4 Steals, and a .312 BA would compare with the elite.
Even with just 333 at-bats this season, Napoli has been plenty valuable for the Rangers, even if his glove will never resemble Yadier Molina. According to FanGraphs, Napoli has been the second most valuable catcher in baseball this season, only behind Alex Avila, who has garnered 513 at-bats.
Texas is known as one of the best hitting environments in baseball, and Napoli’s success there was somewhat anticipated by those who recognized he’d be moving to a more friendly home stadium. We can credit a portion of Napoli’s statistical surge to being a member of the Rangers, but there’s other reasons to marvel at what Napoli is doing in 2011.
Start with his batting eye.
Among all hitting metrics, the measures of a player’s plate discipline (contact rate, strikeout rate, walk rate) tend to be the most stable year-to-year. However, there’s always exceptions. Napoli has jumped from a 0.31 BB/K rate in 2010 to a 0.69 BB/K rate in 2011, a 123% improvement that’s the second largest gain (behind John Buck) among batters with at least 300 at-bats. Other players who have strongly improved their plate discipline this season include Jose Reyes, David Ortiz, and Matt Kemp. Pretty good company to be in.
Napoli was long considered to be a batter who had quite a bit of pop, but would be a batting average anchor — a poor man’s Adam Dunn if you will. This season, though, Napoli has his average above .300 and an OBP above .400, slightly boosted by a fortunate BABIP but not so much that his peripherals don’t indicate his .300+/.400+/.600+ statline is a fluke. Measurable gains in contact and walk rates support what Napoli is doing in 2011.
One other thing that Napoli is doing much better this year is hitting right-handed pitchers. In 2010, he hit an atrocious .208 versus righties while hitting a lovely .305 versus lefties. This season, there’s no noticeable split difference: He’s hitting .313 versus righties and .311 versus lefties.
The justification for not getting Napoli into the lineup is withering. A batter who gets on base more than 40% of the time with ample power is pretty rare in baseball. For days he’s not playing catcher, Napoli can easily provide more value to the Rangers than any other option at first-base and DH.
Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington seems to be noticing. In April and May, Napoli had 108 combined at-bats. He’s now on pace for 170 cumulative at-bats in August and September.
Add everything up, and there’s a reasonable chance that Napoli could top 500 at-bats for the first time in his career in 2012. If that happens, his upside is 40 HRs, 10 steals, a .300+ average, 100+ runs, and 100+RBIs. Since he’s eligible at catcher, that would make him the most valuable player in fantasy baseball. That’s his statistical potential heading into next year.
Five Middle Infielders On the Rise
Follow us on Twitter: @BloombergSports @RobShawSports
While the recent trend of middle infielders is to hit the ball with power, a la Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dan Uggla, there is a new group of young up-and-comers int he infield who are making their mark with speed:
Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers
Just 23-years old, Dee Gordon is making the most out of his second stint in the Big Leagues. He has recorded multiple hits in four of his last six games and has swiped six bases over the last 10 games. Similar to a lot of young and up-and-coming middle infielders he lacks power, but he can make up for it with speed. So if in need for some stolen bases over the final few weeks of the season, Dee Gordon is your target.
Cliff Pennington, SS, A’s
After a slow start, Cliff Pennington has really picked up his game since the All-Star break. Since then he is hitting .324 with four home runs and 32 RBI. He has also made Billy Beane proud with a .393 OBP. This performance shouldn’t be too surprising, after all, Pennington was drafted by the A’s with the 21st overall pick of the 2005 draft. However, the franchise will not be content until he can post solid numbers throughout a full 162 games, helping the A’s offense get out of a decade long swoon.
Jemile Weeks, 2B, A’s
One of the top rookies in baseball this season has been A’s second baseman Jemile Weeks. Though he does not have the power of his brother Rickie in Milwaukee, Jemile is a line drive machine with an average over .300 and how about those 41 runs and 21 steals through exactly a half season’s worth of games. Weeks has shown some signs of burgeoning power, with 22 doubles and eight triples. He could improve his patience at the plate, but he’s definitely worth owning in all fantasy leagues.
Scott Sizemore, 3B/2B, A’s
A former top prospect with the Detroit Tigers, Sizemore never did work out in Mo-Town and is now in Oakland. There he has been a source for some much-needed power. His .243 average is nothing to write home about, but his nine home runs and 46 RBI would be doubled over a full 150 games worth of at bats. At 26-years old, Sizemore has shed the top prospect label, but he is still young enough to earn regular playing time as a middle or corner infielder. You would imagine that he’d be able to crack as many as 25 home runs should he escape the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum.
Ruben Tejada, SS/2B, Mets
He has yet to hit a home run this season, but the Mets are fine with that as long as Ruben Tejada offers solid defense and line drives. Tejada is batting .278 right now, which is .065 points better than his .213 mark last season. He does have 12 doubles and an impressive 31 walks, so he is not getting outmatched in the Big Leagues. I would like to see some speed from the 21-year-old middle infielder, and the reason you should pay attention o him right now is that he could end up replacing Jose Reyes, should the Mets sensation depart as a free agent this off-season.
Bloomberg Sports 