Category: Dailies
What Does Tomorrow Bring for Brandon Morrow?
By R.J. Anderson //
Almost every aspect of Brandon Morrow’s career has resembled a roller coaster ride. So is there any surprise that Morrow’s 2010 season is replicating that model?
Drafted by the Seattle Mariners as the fifth overall pick in the 2006 draft ahead of hometown hero Tim Lincecum, Morrow failed to live up to expectations in the great northwest. Struggles with command and health restrictions that kept him in the bullpen for most of his Mariner career marked his downfall. Over the off-season he was dealt to the Blue Jays for reliever Brandon League.
The Jays placed Morrow in the rotation, hoping to squeeze the most value possible out of the right-hander. He’s since made five starts, yielding a 5.46 ERA. Morrow has allowed 17 earned runs, but seven came in one start and 12 came in the first two starts. In his last three starts he’s posted the following line: 19 IP, 25 SO, 10 BB, and a 2.37 ERA.
As always. Morrow features an explosive fastball at
upwards of 96 miles per hour. That velocity, combined with his draft
status, helped Morrow secure an annual position on numerous breakthrough
lists in the past two seasons. The hype makes hot stretches like the
one Morrow is now in difficult to evaluate without bias.
There is reason
to believe this is just a hot stretch, though, and not the new
standard.
Morrow has shown short stretches of success in the past, without following through. In September 2008, Morrow made a pair of starts against the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He pitched quite well, striking out a batter per inning and posting a 2.13 ERA. In July 2009 Morrow made four starts in which he struck out 21 and walked nine.
The only change in Morrow’s per nine ratios this season is his strikeout rate and a slight deflation in his home run rate – although he’s allowing the same number of home runs per fly balls hit. That increase in strikeout rate just screams unsustainable. Morrow’s swinging strike rate is up one whiff per 100 pitches – from 10% to 11% — and the only change in pitch approach is the strong implementation of a curveball. It’s interesting to see that Morrow is throwing his curve the most on 0-1, 0-2, and 1-2 counts per data from FanGraphs, suggesting the key to his success has been an increase in strikes looking, rather than of the swinging variety.
Reality and history suggest Morrow simply will not continue to strike out more than a batter per inning. Consider that Morrow has only faced two American League East opponents this season (Baltimore and Tampa Bay) and those starts combined to see him walk 11. Also note that he’s yet to face the Red Sox or Yankees.
There’s a chance Morrow can post a sub-4 ERA, but don’t bet on it. If you can sell high, do it.
For more on Brandon Morrow, check out Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools.
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Casey McGehee’s Fast Start
by Eno Sarris //
Sometimes a player outperforms his minor league numbers by such a wide margin that it’s tempting to call it a Cinderella story on par with the imaginations of Bill Murray in Caddyshack. At the same time, the urge to dismiss such performance as luck is very strong as well.
To be fair to Casey McGehee, he did have an impressive debut. In fact, his .859 OPS in 2009 was the third-best OPS put up by a 26-27 year old debuting at second or third base since 1901 – if you set a 350-at-bat and 15-home run threshold. That threshold is significant, though: The power is the most surprising part of his game, as we will see.
First, let’s appreciate how nicely McGehee is following up his debut season. Since McGehee is eligible at second base in most leagues, we can take a look at how he stacks up against other second sackers in the spider chart on the right from Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools. Sure, he’s not giving his owners many stolen bases, but otherwise he’s been more than solid. See those three dots clustered around McGehee in the scatter plot? They represent Dan Uggla, Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia. Heady company for the young Brewer.
But this sort of debut didn’t seem to be in the cards, based on his pre-major league career. His combined minor league line was .279/.332/.409; now, 518 plate appearances into his major league career, his line with the Brewers is .295/.355/.496. Maybe there’s something in the water (or beer) in Milwaukee. Of course the question is whether or not he can continue his elevated play, because those 2,800 minor league plate appearances weigh heavily against that proposition.
First, let’s look at his patience. McGehee has been showing an average walk rate in the majors (8.9%) and he’s bumped that up this year (12.1%) by not swinging… at anything. Swing rate is significant early in the season, and his 37% swing rate makes him the 20th-toughest player in baseball to coax into a swing this year. While he didn’t have great OBPs in the minor leagues, McGehee had above-average walk rates many years. Combined with his current swing rate, it looks like he’s become a more patient hitter and that his nice OBPs may continue.
The million dollar question, however, is if he will continue to show the same power. His isolated power (SLG% – BA) is .257 this year, .200 for his major league career, and .130 for his minor league career. That’s a stark difference right there. A quick check of the sample sizes needed for certain statistics to become significant shows us that ISO is one of the last offensive statistics to do so. In fact, McGehee has not yet reached the level of plate appearances at which his ISO would become significant, counting his career major league plate appearances (let alone one month worth of data this season). In other words, other players that racked up fewer than 550 plate appearances had an ISO that was less than 70% correlated with their future ISOs.
The strongest sign that McGehee’s performance will start correcting is his HR/FB rate. Right now he’s hitting fewer than a third of his balls in the air, yet 18.5% of them are leaving the park. That percentage is on par with Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, and Evan Longoria, some of the most powerful sluggers in the game.
Unfortunately for McGehee and his owners, that’s the part of his game most likely to regress toward the mean. McGehee would still remain a playable option in mixed leagues if his power numbers fall back to Earth. But if someone in your league sees him as an elite infield option, you should consider looking into a trade.
For more on Casey McGehee, Martin Prado and other players outperforming their minor league statistics, check out Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools. 
What’s Wrong With Javier Vazquez?
The answer to that question is…a lot; at least right now.
After finishing fourth in the National League Cy Young award vote as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2009, Javier Vazquez is now the fifth-best starter for the New York Yankees in 2010.
Whether he’s earned it or not, Vazquez has gained a reputation for wilting in the spotlight. He struggled in his first stint as a Yankee in 2004, and was called out by White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen for not being a big game pitcher as a member of the Chicago rotation. With a 1-3 record and a 9.78 ERA after five turns through the rotation this year, he has only added fuel to the fire.
The biggest problem for Vazquez has been his control. In each of the past 10 seasons, Vazquez has maintained a walks per nine (BB/9) under 3.0. In fact, in five of those seasons – including 2009 – he held his BB/9 under 2.0. Here’s your first sample size warning, but so far Vazquez has walked 5.78 batters per nine innings. In addition to the increase in walks, Vazquez has seen his strikeouts per nine (K/9) fall from 9.77 in ’09 to 7.83 thus far. A K/9 of near 8.0 is still good, and very close to his career number of 8.14.
More walks and slightly fewer strikeouts are part of the problem, but so is some flukish batted ball data. Currently, Vazquez has allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .349. His career number is .309. Vazquez has always been prone to the long ball with a career home run per nine innings (HR/9) of 1.17 and a home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) of 11.3%. But this year those numbers are off the charts: HR/9 of 3.13, with a HR/FB of 22.2%. It’s safe to say with more time and a larger sample size, these numbers will regress toward career levels.
Beyond the controllable stats like walks and strikeouts, and the easily skewed batted ball data of the early season, one thing to look for when a good pitcher struggles – or when a pitcher is having surprising success – is pitch selection. For examples, check recent Bloomberg Sports’ articles on Kevin Gregg and Mike Pelfrey.
Here are some questions when looking at pitch data: Has something dramatically changed? Is the pitcher relying on one pitch too much? Is he working on a new pitch? All of these could be viable explanations. Just not in Vazquez’s case.
Looking at the pitch selection year-over-year for Vazquez, not much has changed. Keep in mind we’re comparing 200+ innings with 20 innings, but each pitch has been used within a one percent of last season’s total.
While the selection is the same, the effectiveness has changed. Vazquez got 12.3% swinging strikes last season. For reference, Tim Lincecum induced 13.4% whiffs last year, so Vazquez did pretty well. In his five starts so far, he has a swinging strike percentage of just 8.6%. That’s down sharply from his career 11.6% mark. The biggest difference has been on Vazquez’s change-up – from 21.9% whiffs in ’09 to 12.3% in ’10. Behind the change-up is his curveball: 17.9% swings and misses in 2009 to 11.8% so far this season.
One potential problem with the change-up could be velocity separation from the fastball. Thrown with a similar grip to the fastball, the change-up’s biggest asset is fooling the batter into thinking it’s a heater. It keeps the batter off balance due to decreased velocity and sharp movement.
Throughout his career, Vazquez has maintained about 10.5 miles per hour on separation on the two pitches. This year, the separation difference is less than 8.5 MPH. His change-up velocity is within two-tenths of career level, but his fastball is down from 91.2 MPH (career) to 88.9 MPH (2010). A decrease of more than two miles per hour is probably the biggest cause for concern with Vazquez.
We are not doctors; therefore we won’t speculate about injuries. However, Frankie Piliere, a former major league scout and now writer for AOL Fanhouse, suggests that it is a mechanical flaw that has his velocity and control down.
There is a chance Vazquez continues to struggle all season, but with the limited data on the season, it’s just too early to make that assumption given his history as one of the game’s better starters. With simple regression alone on batted balls, Vazquez is likely to improve as the season progresses. If you own Vazquez try to remain patient. As Piliere, notes a mechanical flaw is not the easiest thing to correct during the season, so there may more ugly in his future than good.
Still, some caution is advised. Vazquez has always been a flyball pitcher. A right-handed flyball pitcher pitcher in front of Yankee Stadium’s short porch was never going to be a perfect match. Going from the National League to the brutal AL East was going to naturally inflate his numbers too, given the typical gap of up to half a run scored per game seen between the two leagues in recent years. If Vazquez’s other problems persist, his attempt at an in-season rebound becomes that much tougher.
For more on Javier Vazquez and the New York Yankees, check out Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy kits
Chris Volstad and Pitching Truths
by Eno Sarris //
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that there are different results on different types of batted balls, and that across baseball, these results hold steady from year to year.
When a pitcher has allowed a line drive this year, the batter has put up a .732/.730/.997 batting line.
When a pitcher has allowed a flyball this year, the batter has put up a .226/.220/.595 batting line.
When a pitcher has allowed a groundball this year, the batter has put up a .219/.219/.238 batting line.
Unfortunately for pitchers, there is little evidence that they can control line drives from year to year. Fortunately for pitchers, there is evidence that they can control the other two. Take a look at the slugging percentages on groundballs versus flyballs in particular.
This brings us to Chris Volstad, a pitcher that is owned in virtually no leagues – at the time of this writing, he was available in 97% of Yahoo leagues. There’s a reason for that. Check out this screen grab from the Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools. Volstad is doing very little right this year.
Very little is not nothing, on the other hand. Volstad has one important thing going for him. He can induce groundballs. His career groundball percentage is 50.6% and even in his struggles this year, he’s got a nice 48.2% number. That puts him at 40th in the league, which is not bad in itself. It is early going, though. If he had put up his career groundball percentage last year, Volstad would have been 13th in the league, right behind Adam Wainwright and in good company with Josh Johnson right behind him.
Returning to Steve Slowinski’s piece on the levels at which statistics become significant, we find this about pitchers:
Pitching Statistics:
- 150 BF – K/PA, grounder rate, line drive rate
- 200 BF – flyball rate, GB/FB
- 500 BF – K/BB, pop up rate
- 550 BF – BB/PA
We will have to count this as good news in Volstad’s case. He has a career strikeout rate of 5.67 K/9 and this year he’s lagging behind with a 3.47 K/9. Since he’s only faced 102 batters, we can hope the strikeout rate will rise. Derek Lowe was long successful with a 60% groundball rate, 5+ K/9 and a sub-3 BB/9, and these are all levels that Volstad could reach with a little work.
It can be tough to try and dominate your fantasy league with a groundballer, that much is true. Especially the groundballers that don’t strike people out, since strikeouts are a category in almost any league. There are also better groundball pitchers than Volstad out there, and RJ pointed out a couple of them just last week. Volstad’s contact rate (88.1% this year, 83.4% career) actually sits in between the two pitchers RJ talked about (Mike Leake and Doug Fister), so he’s an interesting test case. He’s the third amigo you could say.
Perhaps you can leave Volstad on the wire for now. But don’t let anyone convince you that he doesn’t do anything well. Watch his groundball rates, and if they rise, and he manages to strike a few out along the way, he could easily make a good pickup in a deep league.
For more on the three amigos, Mike Leake, Doug Fister and Chris Volstad, check out Bloomberg Sports Fantasy Tools.
Should you hold onto Nate McLouth, Jason Kubel and Alexei Ramirez?
(Audio) BTN with Eno Sarris and What is WHIFF Rate?
By Bloomberg Sports //
Listen now! – (loads in new browser)
Behind the Numbers
Hosts: Wayne Parillo and Rob Shaw
Guest: Eno Sarris www.fangraphs.com
Total Running Time: 10:34
High Level Look
- What is WHIFF
- All about Mike Pelfrey and Joba Chamberlin
- Eno’s unique introduction to the world of baseball.
More ways to get Behind the Numbers, talk to us, or just have a good time
Garrett Atkins Era Already Over In Baltimore? Rhyne Hughes Promoted
By Tommy Rancel //
The Baltimore Orioles’ signing of Garrett Atkins this off-season was as non-descript of a move as you can get. Yet at the time of the signing, the move struck me as odd. Even before the season started, Baltimore was seen as a fourth- or fifth-place team in baseball’s best division. Therefore, handing nearly $5 million to a below-average corner infielder on the wrong side of 30 didn’t make much sense.
Less than a month into the season, the deal looks as bad (if not worse) than it did in December. The 2010 season is very young, but Atkins has a paltry OPS of .564 so far. We warn against small sample size selections, but this looks more like a continuation of a larger decline than statistical noise. Atkins hit his OPS peak in 2006 (.965), but has seen his OPS decline in each season since:
2007: .853
2008: .780
2009: .650
As alarming, if not more, than the OPS decline is the power decline that has accompanied it. Using Isolated Power (ISO), which measures raw power by taking slugging percentage and subtracting batting average, we can see Atkins has been on a sharp decline in power since ’06.
Atkins put up a stellar .228 ISO in 2006, but just a .116 ISO in 2009. To date, he is struggling to crack .100 in 2010.
Despite the season being less than a month old, it is pretty clear the Orioles are not going to be contending this year. With that in mind, some younger players in the organization could see significant playing time as the team looks for additional members to add to a strong core of talented players that includes Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Matusz and others.
One of those players who stands to get a chance to prove himself is Rhyne Hughes. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for Gregg Zaun last summer, Hughes has seen an increase in playing time due to Atkins’ – and the team’s – struggles. Called up just last week, Hughes already has three starts in place of Atkins.
Here are a few things to remember on Hughes: He is not a top prospect. At his age, 26, he’s not much of a prospect at all, and has always been a bit older for his league. More than likely, he won’t be a star at this level, but he wasn’t in the minor leagues either. With that said, despite the lack of hype and fanfare, he has been a fairly solid producer.
In more than 2,200 minor league plate appearances (PA), Hughes has a career slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) of .279/.349/.457. More recently, he has toiled in Triple-A for Tampa Bay and Baltimore. In 368 PAs at the level, he hit .309/.367/.534, including 15 games this season with a 1.088 OPS.
Hughes is a bit of a hacker (strikeout rate over 30% last year) and doesn’t walk much (less than 10% walk rate in minors), but you’re going to find flaws in most 26-year-old minor leaguers. Meanwhile, the 2010 Baltimore Orioles are in a perfect position to find out if Hughes can have success at this level.
If you drafted Atkins, or picked him up off waivers in a really deep mixed league or AL-only league, drop him if you haven’t already done so. In his place (again, assuming you’re in a deep league) consider Hughes. He should be readily available in most formats and is likely to be given a chance at decent playing time.
If you have an empty spot in an AL-only because a player has recently hit the DL (Nelson Cruz?), give Hughes a flier for a few weeks and see what happens. There isn’t a lot to watch for with the Orioles, but Rhyne Hughes could inject a little excitement to an otherwise ugly season.
For more on Rhyne Hughes and other unlikely sleepers, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Kits
(Video) Ballpark Figures: Hot Commodities
by Jonah Keri //
Welcome to Bloomberg Sports’ Ballpark Figures, hosted by Bloomberg TV’s Michele
Steele and Bloomberg Sports’ fantasy baseball analyst Rob Shaw. Each day they
discuss the trends and headlines that impact fantasy baseball the same way
Bloomberg News monitors the stories that move the financial markets. Who are
the bears and bulls? Who are the hottest commodities? You get the idea.
Ballpark Figures: Hot Commodities — Bloomberg TV’s Michele Steele talks fantasy baseball with Bloomberg Sports’
fantasy analyst Rob Shaw. Why are Royals middle infielder Alberto Callaspo and
Diamondbacks second baseman Kelly Johnson “Shaw Bets!” and how has
Diamondbacks closer Chad Qualls rebounded from a rough start to become
“Michele’s Steal!”?
Is B.J. Upton Back to Being Powerful?
By R.J. Anderson //
Formerly a top draft pick and uberprospect, B.J. Upton broke out in 2007 with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases. Those stats were accumulated despite Upton missing roughly 30 games with a strained quadriceps muscle and changing positions for the third time. Since then, Upton has played most of the previous two seasons and in every game this year, yet he’s racked up a total of 24 homers.To say Upton’s 2007 looks like a tease is being kind. With four home runs in the first 19 games, is it time to start wondering whether Upton’s power is back?
Early in the 2008 season, Upton suffered a torn labrum while attempting to rob a home run. He fought off surgery until after the season, which helps to explain his zapped homer production as well as his increased number of groundballs hit. The reality is the more groundballs Upton hits, the fewer extra-base hits he’ll rack up. Even with elite speed, Upton’s not turning grounders through infield holes into doubles. In 2009, Upton hit fewer grounders but showed signs of rust and did not hit the ball well when he connected.
Over the winter, Upton spent ludicrous amounts of time with the Tampa Bay Rays’ new hitting coach Derek Shelton. So far, that work is paying off. Upton’s .239 ISO (a metric which is derived from subtracting batting average from slugging percentage so as to not count singles twice) would mark a career high by a good margin. He’s hitting a career-low number of groundballs, with a career-high flyball rate. His homers per fly ball ratio is around the mark he set in 2007.
Only 28.8% of Upton’s batted balls are turning into hits, a stark contrast from a career 33.8% rate driven partly by his excellent speed. If his BABIP rises toward career norms, that would also boost his batting average. Meanwhile, Upton’s 13.4% walk rate is extremely attractive in leagues that count on-base percentage, especially if his BABIP rebounds.
The open question remains what will happen to Upton’s power, underscored by his current lofty .507 slugging percentage. The common perception is that Upton has began going the opposite way more and dumping balls into right field that he would’ve fouled off or whiffed at in the past. That perception is simply untrue. Using data provided by FanGraphs, we can chart how many balls Upton puts into play, and how many of those are hit to right field (since Upton is a right-handed batter). Here are those numbers:
Year BIP Oppo%
2007 325 28
2008 407 31.2
2009 414 24.4
2010 56 23.2
Upton is actually hitting fewer balls the other way than ever before. Still, Upton’s batting average while going the other way is well over .400, which suggests he’s hitting the ball decently when he does go the other way. That’s an important part of the equation.
Who knows whether this will continue. Upton certainly has the upside and potential to be a 30/30 threat, but if you value risk minimization over reward maximization, then you should consider selling high on Upton. Remember that you already spent a high draft pick to get him, though. If you can’t find a trade partner who values Upton like the super prospect with 30/30 potential, you can sit tight rather than sell for 80 cents on the dollar.
For more about B.J. Upton and other power/speed threats, check out Bloomberg Sports’ Fantasy Tools.
Why Player Injuries Don’t Have To Hurt
- Do research and understand the injury: What’s the timeframe for return? What’s the risk of injury setbacks or injury re-occurrences? How long until a player can really rehabilitate and perform up to the usual standard?
- Watch out for misleading news: It’s almost a cliché these days that a player is making “significant progress” in his road to recovery. Reporters have a duty to check up with team management about a player’s status. Rarely do they get an honest response. The spin is usually positive. For buyers, this means tread carefully. For sellers, the moment that news story hits about a player being ahead of schedule on his road to return, this might represent the best opportunity to explore the trade market.
- Correctly factor an injured player’s expected contribution to your team: If your player is going to miss 20% of the season, you might think that means the standard for return in trade is 80%. But keep in mind that even without a trade, you’ll be plugging someone off of reserves or the waiver wire who will produce some. So maybe you’d want a player in return who will give you at least 90% of your injured player’s original value. For buyers, if your potential trading partner doesn’t realize this math, it’s a good investment.
- Measure your team’s need for downgrading risk or upgrading upside: If your team is in the middle of the pack and can’t afford a big hit like a player injury, getting some value in return for an injured player makes sense. If your team is struggling or ahead of the pack with depth to spare, taking on an injured superstar’s upside is also a sound idea. Also keep in mind that a player who is injured can usually be put on the DL, which frees up a roster spot for another player too.
- Be aggressive but cautious: Always assume the worst when it comes to a player’s injury. Professional ballclubs have a lot of money at stake with their players, so organizations are usually conservative in getting a player back into the lineup. If a player is said to be out two-to-four weeks, assume four-to-five.
Finally, I recently expressed some skepticism about whether so-called sell-high candidates like Scott Podsednik are really candidates for trade. Convincing people to move off of long-held perceptions about a player’s ability is usually easier said than done.
Bloomberg Sports 
